Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Bearish article by Russ Mitchell on LATimes:
The public thinks Tesla’s Autopilot is safer than it is, an insurance group says
Do you know if this precise statement is true?

"The Tesla manual says the driver should hold the wheel at all times, and — when used as intended — Autopilot warns drivers if they do not."

Ed Niedermeyer is making a fuss on Twitter about this.
(if true, well, he'd be quite right)

 

[Fact Checking]

Model X availability in inventory trackers continues to be very sparse in the US with no discounts to be found. Let me tell you, this is a complete 180 from three months ago. Also bullish.

This is the so-called "Tamberrino Demand Effect": the Model Y unveil increased Model X demand, because now the dimensions, features and availability of the Model Y are very clear and Tesla customers can buy the X without comparing it to a mythical Y half the price. A reverse Osborne Effect if you will.

Note to David Tamberrino and his clients at Goldman Sachs, he got the direction wrong: the Model Y doesn't decrease but increases Model X demand.

It's a small sign mistake to make, can happen to anyone, let alone to math and logic challenged Wall Street analysts with little imagination and absolutely no scruples!

 

[Dutchie]

GS - Tesla sells less that 1m cars in 2025, what should I say - buy the dip

Don't these guys need some kind of academic level of education to work at Goldman Sachs? As so, how can an academic come to a conldusion "becomes more clear that demand for current products are below expectations"
1. What were the expectations?;
2. What information does he have that demand will decline?
3. How reliable is this information?
4. By what number will it decline so that it will fall below 1?
5. Are there any mitigating factors that would compensate 2?
Etc.

Just stating some opinion without any showing how you come to that conclusion is not even acceptable on a High School project. I envisioned Goldman Sachs as highly professional, a company who only hires top-talent. I think Mr. Tamberinno is due for a highly critical job evaluation interview.

 

[uselesslogin]

Bearish article by Russ Mitchell on LATimes:
The public thinks Tesla’s Autopilot is safer than it is, an insurance group says
Do you know if this precise statement is true?

"The Tesla manual says the driver should hold the wheel at all times, and — when used as intended — Autopilot warns drivers if they do not."

Ed Niedermeyer is making a fuss on Twitter about this.
(if true, well, he'd be quite right)

??

Yeah the name makes sense to pilots. I always thought it was otherwise misleading. But still it tells you this when you turn the features on as well.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Anyone who actually USES Autopilot is reminded to keep their hands on the wheel at all times, EVERY time it’s engaged. That’s what counts. The general public are not reminded of this.

maybe I don't understand the nuances of the English statement, but I thought Autopilot wanted you to

• pay attention at all times
• signal the car this attention holding the wheel from time to time

I've no issue with that. Holding the wheel at all times is different (or it's not?)

 

[neroden]

Seeking Alpha doesn't care about Tesla one way or another, they care about getting attention. And unfortunately negative/extreme sounding articles tend to get more attention, just how people's lizard brains are wired. And on top of that, it's just a blog where pretty much anybody can submit articles, even if they are not really qualified, and even if they have heavy sometimes undisclosed biases, and most of them know that a negative article gets more attention too.

Sorry, no. Seeking Alpha is documented to censor positive articles and comments.

On top of that, one of their oldest and most prolific (and Tesla negative) bloggers was heavily invested in the battery company that supplied batteries to the Fiskar Karma, right around the time that Tesla was getting a foothold, and the battery company went bankrupt, partly because of the Model S. He also may or may not have had to downsize his home because of being too invested in the bankrupt company.

That might be it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Am I wrong or has there been way less posts/noise about discounts being given out this quarter? no major end of quarter incentive as far as I can tell.

That has to be bullish

Instead, they’re raising the price of the black Model 3 and selling used ones for more than new ones. Bullish, indeed.

 

[Swampgator]

Don't these guys need some kind of academic level of education to work at Goldman Sachs? As so, how can an academic come to a conldusion "becomes more clear that demand for current products are below expectations"
1. What were the expectations?;
2. What information does he have that demand will decline?
3. How reliable is this information?
4. By what number will it decline so that it will fall below 1?
5. Are there any mitigating factors that would compensate 2?
Etc.

Just stating some opinion without any showing how you come to that conclusion is not even acceptable on a High School project. I envisioned Goldman Sachs as highly professional, a company who only hires top-talent. I think Mr. Tamberinno is due for a highly critical job evaluation interview.

He's not stupid. They are making money on both the up and the downs. He is doing what his boss tells him to do at precisely the time he is told.
Then once he makes a bunch of money for his company and himself, he can go work at the SEC

 

[alseTrick]

My hope is that Tesla can ride out the storm until the Y goes into production. I really think any discussion of demand and profit ends when the Y comes out. That's the car people are buying these days. I also think that's when it's lights out for the shorts. I also think that's why they are giving EVERYTHING they have at sabotaging Tesla so Tesla doesn't make it to that point. When it becomes inevitable that the Y will go into production, I think the shorts will give up and you will then see the short burn of the century - at least for those who don't bail out early on.

They'll be producing 3's in China before they're producing Y's in the US. Not much of a storm, imo.

 

[Tslynk67]

maybe I don't understand the nuances of the English statement, but I thought Autopilot wanted you to

• pay attention at all times
• signal the car this attention holding the wheel from time to time

I've no issue with that. Holding the wheel at all times is different (or it's not?)

You have to hold the wheel at all times, well you can let go of it, but after a short while it will nag you, do it too much it will shut-down AP for the rest of the trip (as being defined as engaging the parking brake).

 

[uselesslogin]

maybe I don't understand the nuances of the English statement, but I thought Autopilot wanted you to

• pay attention at all times
• signal the car this attention holding the wheel from time to time

I've no issue with that. Holding the wheel at all times is different (or it's not?)

Well, I hold the steering wheel at all times as the manual and the screen for enabling the option both tell me to do that. I feel far more comfortable doing that anyway and it still is a life changer as far as saving tons of mental energy keeping the lane and speed, especially in traffic. But no, you misunderstood, Tesla very clearly asks you to hold the steering wheel at all times. It has been this way since 2014.

Edit: Well, wait I'm not being completely honest. I do let go of the wheel for a few seconds here and there.. But generally, yeah, I hold it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Bearish article by Russ Mitchell on LATimes:
The public thinks Tesla’s Autopilot is safer than it is, an insurance group says
Do you know if this precise statement is true?

"The Tesla manual says the driver should hold the wheel at all times, and — when used as intended — Autopilot warns drivers if they do not."

Ed Niedermeyer is making a fuss on Twitter about this.
(if true, well, he'd be quite right)

That statement is true, yes. It also states that on the instrument cluster every time autopilot is engaged.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, I hold the steering wheel at all times as the manual and the screen for enabling the option both tell me to do that. I feel far more comfortable doing that anyway and it still is a life changer as far as saving tons of mental energy keeping the lane and speed, especially in traffic. But no, you misunderstood, Tesla very clearly asks you to hold the steering wheel at all times. It has been this way since 2014.

Edit: Well, wait I'm not being completely honest. I do let go of the wheel for a few seconds here and there.. But generally, yeah, I hold it.

Pretty much ditto. In the beginning, I was a lot less rigid with myself on always holding the wheel. The incident with the Model X in Mountain View convinced me to hold the wheel at basically all times.

 

[SO16]

maybe I don't understand the nuances of the English statement, but I thought Autopilot wanted you to

• pay attention at all times
• signal the car this attention holding the wheel from time to time

I've no issue with that. Holding the wheel at all times is different (or it's not?)

I just checked again. It states verbatim:

“Please keep your hands on the wheel
Be prepared to take over at anytime”

Yes...even the bold print.

2017S90D with FSD. 2019.20.1 software.

 

[wipster]

So, this guy Tamberino, who is not even a highly ranked analyst, comes out with ANOTHER downgrade (he seems to issue one every couple or few weeks like clockwork (magically every time the stock gets upward momentum)) with a new narrative (because the old one proved false), and the market somehow gives his views credence because he is from GS - just makes no sense that the lemmings on Wall Street do not get that this guys has an agenda. I guess the good thing is he has given a wonderful buying opportunity. The SEC really does need to look into these analysts (and the media). They are basically given carte blanche to write anything they want without any real oversight. I admire Elon and the Tesla team more-and-more each day knowing all they are achieving in spite of the constant barrage of negativity from so many fronts.

Hey Mr. Tamberino short a stock for me
I'm not kidding and I don't think we'll get looked at by the SEC...

(Bobby D ain't got nothin' on me)

 

[brian45011]

On top of that, one of their oldest and most prolific (and Tesla negative) bloggers was heavily invested in the battery company that supplied batteries to the Fiskar Karma, right around the time that Tesla was getting a foothold, and the battery company went bankrupt, partly because of the Model S. He also may or may not have had to downsize his home because of being too invested in the bankrupt company.

You seem to be confusing A123 with Axion

 

[CalX]

Looks like Marketedge upgraded Tesla from Avoid to Neutral yesterday.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sorry, no. Seeking Alpha is documented to censor positive articles and comments.

Yet another incident of Seeking Alpha's selective censorship of Tesla supportive comments was posted earlier today:

SA just deleted this comment. Censoring bulls as usual!

I've noticed that any mention of Russia or Russian trolls in connection with an anti-Tesla smear campaign is immediately deleted off SA, which leads me to suspect that there is in fact some kind of connection. Seems a bit conspiracy theorist, but then again so does the Russian interference in Brexit and the 2016 US elections.

If you read the comment they deleted:

Interesting comment by user Quark Star on recent SA news article:

Tesla 'throws in the towel' on growing residential solar, report says - Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) | Seeking Alpha

"It seems to me that a lot of user accounts here were created for the sole purpose of only posting bearish comments about Tesla. First, many of these users only post comments about Tesla articles. Second, many of them have screen names that seek to mock Tesla/Musk or praise bearish critics. Witness the various permutations of "Montana Skeptic" that abounds. And witness Tesla/Musk mocking names such as "flufferty the gigabit", "Yambol-Musk isn't a genius, people are just stupid.", "VIN Electric II", "Dansplans where we build our Tesla shorts with Love and sport Alien Dreadlocks", and so on.

Because of this, I question the motive of many of these users. Are they paid trolls? Do they work for outside interests that benefit from a potential Tesla failure? Such interests could be the many hedge funds that short Tesla, or large oil interests, be it in the US, Middle East, or Russia.

In regards to the latter, it is well known that Putin interfered in the 2016 election via a vast social media campaign targeting Facebook, Twitter, etc. (Many now also believe that Putin similarly interfered in the Brexit election, and perhaps even other elections.)

Now, oil represents 50% of Russia's exports. If Putin was willing to interfere in the 2016 election, logic dictates that he and his oligarchs would also use social media as a weapon to protect their oil interests. Shaping a negative public opinion on Tesla and EVs more broadly is one way to do this. And, in addition to Facebook and Twitter, Seeking Alpha would be a prime social and financial media target. Just observe the plethora of bearish articles on Tesla here, as well as the mind numbing amount of bearish comments on each and every Tesla article and news story. I'm not saying that this is all due to propaganda or trolls, but the quantity certainly seems well out of proportion compared to other stocks, past and present. And this ill proportionality has been well pointed out by other media observers, with the result that most bulls don't even bother reading SA anymore.

Whether it is Russia, US oil interests, or Wall Street hedge funds, it is clear that there is large social media smear campaign targeting Tesla. With this awareness in mind, it is ever more important for retail (mom & pop) investors to be vigilant about what they read online and to critically assess articles and comments for their authenticity, truthfulness, and motives. I hope, as well, that the SA editors take notice and heed this warning. But in all likelihood, I expect this comment to be deleted. Tesla bulls simply don't have a voice here at SA."

It was a fair, measured comment that didn't even come close to violating Seeking Alpha's Terms of Service in any way, shape or form.

If SA's censorship bias gets proven in court they could lose their DMCA Safe Harbor status I suppose.

 

[X Fan]

So, this guy Tamberino, who is not even a highly ranked analyst, comes out with ANOTHER downgrade (he seems to issue one every couple or few weeks like clockwork (magically every time the stock gets upward momentum)) with a new narrative (because the old one proved false), and the market somehow gives his views credence because he is from GS - just makes no sense that the lemmings on Wall Street do not get that this guys has an agenda. I guess the good thing is he has given a wonderful buying opportunity. The SEC really does need to look into these analysts (and the media). They are basically given carte blanche to write anything they want without any real oversight. I admire Elon and the Tesla team more-and-more each day knowing all they are achieving in spite of the constant barrage of negativity from so many fronts.

GS is simply one of the worst Corporations on this planet....

 

[Nocturnal]

Isn't that goldman bit about Tesla demand being expected to meet or narrowly miss the market's expectations a total lie? I thought the bears were expecting the same low numbers as Q1?

Side note. These companies that are going out of their way to pile on, surely will have some backlash for all this. I don't see myself ever tuning into CNBC, and has certainly eroded my trust in agencies such as the NYT and WaPo. Toyota is another company I've always liked, but their blatant anti-EV marketing is also annoying me. Trust in media is an at all time low and these news agencies are risking alienating a sizable, high earning group of people.

GS is simply one of the worst Corporations on this planet....

They just want to make it easier for me to back Warren I guess. ​