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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yesterday I couldn't figure out why all my TSLA call options were down big time, on a day that TSLA stock was up. Made no sense. Now it's clear as day: Tamberrino's friends at Goldman Sachs (and favored clients let in on the scam) were frontrunning the price target cut that was about to be released. Where is the SEC? Disgusting.
 
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My hope is that Tesla can ride out the storm until the Y goes into production. I really think any discussion of demand and profit ends when the Y comes out. That's the car people are buying these days. I also think that's when it's lights out for the shorts. I also think that's why they are giving EVERYTHING they have at sabotaging Tesla so Tesla doesn't make it to that point. When it becomes inevitable that the Y will go into production, I think the shorts will give up and you will then see the short burn of the century - at least for those who don't bail out early on.
Model 3 was supposed to do that. Everybody and his uncle were sure that after Model 3 production was on mass market mode, It would be triumph of victory for Tesla. I personally believed it.
 
The problem is, the analysts got burned by the Q4 demand pull back since the $7500 tax rebate was being reduced to half. The huge quarter set the expectations for future quarters and then a lot of doubt crept in after Q1 was announced. Tesla intensely pushed the tax rebate ending as a demand lever and pulled a ton of demand from 19Q1 into 18Q4. That result was a horrendous Q1. Now, we have a similar thing going on. Not only is the rebate being halved again, but Tesla is giving free lifetime supercharging on inventory X and S models. So, right now, in reality, it's difficult to know what a normal quarter's demand look like. What will it look like in 2020 with no incentives at all? What demand levers does Tesla have left?

Add into this the fact that last year, Musk was saying that Tesla would be profitable going forward. He said that for a company to be sustainable they had to be able to make a profit. After 2 quarters of profits, suddenly the analysts are hit with a near record-loss quarter of $700 million. And Musk's tune changed from "profitable all quarters going forward" to "it's hard to make a profit when you''re trying to grow like this" [I'm paraphrasing BTW]. But, didn't he know in 2018 that Tesla would still be in growth mode in the last 2 quarters of 2019? Why the shift from "profitable all quarters going forward" to "it's hard to be profitable while growing"? Did he fib, or did he not really understand where the company would be in 9 to 12 months?

And I know I'm going to get a ton of Disagrees for this post. But please, tell me where I am wrong factually. You cannot blame people if there interpretation of the facts is different from yours. If the facts are wrong, you can correct them, but not how people feel about the facts.

My hope is that Tesla can ride out the storm until the Y goes into production. I really think any discussion of demand and profit ends when the Y comes out. That's the car people are buying these days. I also think that's when it's lights out for the shorts. I also think that's why they are giving EVERYTHING they have at sabotaging Tesla so Tesla doesn't make it to that point. When it becomes inevitable that the Y will go into production, I think the shorts will give up and you will then see the short burn of the century - at least for those who don't bail out early on.

Totally agree, and count me as one of the people who felt burned by EM for all the reasons you stated. Q1 was epic bad, not just because of the losses, but because EM unnecessarily lost goodwill and credibility.

To this day, I haven’t ever been in the black with TSLA. Although my losses have piled up except very recently, I’m long and keep adding because I believe in the mission, market, company, and opportunity.

I’m willing to take volatility in the SP, but a CEO should not contribute to blindsiding investors.
 
Tamberrino calls have never affected TSLA much because nobody respects him. This is just typical mid-day short selling which has been happening almost every day the last few weeks. It usually ends around 2:30, then we spike back higher the next morning (which has also been happening almost every day the last few weeks).
 
Sorry, no. Seeking Alpha is documented to censor positive articles and comments.


That might be it.
That's kind of what I was trying to say, an article that is balanced or maybe a bit positive might get published with a title that spins it negative or makes it sound more exciting than it is, like a lot of publications. The comments are another ballgame of course.
 
Now this Factset estimate shenanigans have started given we are nearing the end of the quarter. Perfect way to set high expectation and even missing that number by less than 1% will be considered a Yuge miss, and will be used to slam the stock.

We have seen this bad movie play a few times before.

Yep. Stock tanked on expectation of poor deliveries. Now that delivery expectations are much higher, very little rebound of which to speak.
 
Now this Factset estimate shenanigans have started given we are nearing the end of the quarter. Perfect way to set high expectation and even missing that number by less than 1% will be considered a Yuge miss, and will be used to slam the stock.

We have seen this bad movie play a few times before.

The company itself guided between 90-100k. Then multiple times they re-iterated the guidance. Why is this a bad thing / surprising that the factset estimate is at the lower end of the guidance? It's a conservative estimate based on the information from the company.
 
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Am I wrong or has there been way less posts/noise about discounts being given out this quarter? no major end of quarter incentive as far as I can tell.

That has to be bullish

Free supercharging to X and S inventory cars. But, that incentive wiped them out quickly if EV-CPO can be relied upon.

I haven't seen a single Model 3 get discounted though someone posted that they got a $5400 discount on an inventory car with less than 50 miles. That was sort of surprising.
Totally agree, and count me as one of the people who felt burned by EM for all the reasons you stated. Q1 was epic bad, not just because of the losses, but because EM unnecessarily lost goodwill and credibility.

To this day, I haven’t ever been in the black with TSLA. Although my losses have piled up except very recently, I’m long and keep adding because I believe in the mission, market, company, and opportunity.

I’m willing to take volatility in the SP, but a CEO should not contribute to blindsiding investors.

I'm sure many people in your position (in the red) feel the same. Fortunately for me, I am still well in the black overall. However, different from you, I don't invest for the mission or the market, or anything other than - I LOVE THE CAR. It is the single best product I've ever purchased. I typically invest based on how I personally feel about a company's product or services. I figure if I love it, then others probably will also. I got in pretty early with Amazon simply due to how much I loved free 2-day shipping and amazing customer service. The incredible product Tesla makes is why I invested in TSLA. Same with Priceline. I missed out on Netflix because I simply didn't like it.

With that said, I would still prefer Elon Musk over any one else running Tesla. Without Musk, I seriously doubt any of us would have ever heard of a car company called Tesla. Without Musk, there sure wouldn't have been a product called AutoPilot in 2014, and definitely not as affordable as it is today (if I can afford such an amazing product - it's CHEAP!!). Sometimes his flare for pushing the limits gets him in trouble (falcon wing doors), but you have to take the good with the bad - and I firmly believe Musk has been overwhelmingly good for this company. It's not even a discussion for me. I just wish he would stop using his emotions and hopes when he makes comments that we take as guidance. These things REALLY need to be more scientifically based - on actually evidence.

EDIT: I accidentally did a multipost because I forget to hit post after the first. But hey! That's pretty cool!!
 
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The company itself guided between 90-100k. Then multiple times they re-iterated the guidance. Why is this a bad thing / surprising that the factset estimate is at the lower end of the guidance? It's a conservative estimate based on the information from the company.

Seriously??? This whole drop from 300/share was predicated on Tesla falling way short of Q2 guidance.
 
ps : This also means he thinks Tesla has zero chance of getting anywhere near FSD in 5+ years.

Actually, it doesn't show you what he thinks, it shows you what he wants from you. If you don't already own TSLA, he wants to discourage you from buying it and, if you already own some, he wants you to sell it.

That is all it means.