Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Also, the Model 3 had 57% battery.

See 1 min 49 into the video.

Yes, but if they filled the batteries to the top wouldnt the car be heavier and therefore slower?

 

[Papafox]

A big part of the problem with Florida is that Next Era controls large areas of the grid. Next Era brags of a 221% return to shareholders over the past decade, and they're focused on producing the clean power, distributing it, and making sure no one competes too much with them, including homeowners. It's all about making money for the shareholders and not servicing the customers. Florida has ridiculously low rooftop solar compared to locations where the sun shines so frequently and with such intensity. Next Era planned to buy Hawaii's largest electrical utility but fortunately the state stepped in and said, "take a hike, and don't let the door hit your okole on the way out."

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Thanks. I will try to do the same.

One last OT before tomorrow. Here's another one for you.

“It is true of the Nation, as of the individual, that the greatest doer must also be a great dreamer.”
― Theodore Roosevelt

 

[Fact Checking]

Body isn't the bottleneck right now. Battery cells are. I think the new machine makes batteries, and I think its being built in Fremont.

Since Grohmann made the new, football field sized "Grohmann Machine" for the GF1, which machine is building SR+ battery packs in a largely automated way, that's a very valid interpretation too.

But from a Cost of Goods perspective, general assembly is the low hanging fruit:

• SR+ has 55 kWh packs, which if pack level costs are $130/kWh are $7,150 - or ~25% of SR+ CoGs - much of which is raw materials costs. Pack overhead is thought to be around $30/kWh, $1,650 or ~6% of CoGs, only a fraction of which is labor cost.
• Total labor costs of the SR are about $10,000, with $28,000 parts and materials costs, according to two tear-downs.
• Much of the labor cost is assembly line manual labor - and this could be eliminated almost completely via automation: up to 35% of direct CoGs, which is a huge deal.
• Jerome Guillen got a Doctor of Engineering PhD at the University of Michigan, and he worked at Daimler AG's truck division before. I believe he is a process engineer at heart, and he was the mastermind behind the "Sprung Tent" that fixed the Model 3 5k/week bottleneck last year. I'm pretty sure he has the entire production equipment in mind, not "just" cells and the battery pack, which I believe was expressed in the interview too: "Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that.". (Emphasis mine)
• Note how his statement wasn't limited to the battery pack, and how it clearly referred to automotive, not cell manufacturing which would include storage too.

Beyond labor cost, the body assembly lines also carry huge capital risks, are much more complex and have a much longer lead time than cell capacity expansion. Cell production is important, but much simpler compared to the $28,000 expensive assembly process of 10,000 parts.

This is why I think that the "giant, giant, giant machine" @ZachShahan reported could be a next generation, modular car assembly line - the "Dreadnought", the "Machine that is building the machine".

(Pure speculation based on very little real information though, which could be dead wrong.)

 

[brian45011]

All they needed from me (and I assume others) was proof that I have vehicle insurance for some other vehicle, which with USAA also covers rentals or new cars for a limited period.

USAA has become a complete YOKE (my H20 heater/freezer failed)--they value growth over members who have paid premiums for decades without a claim. Feel free to move this to your snippiness file for all those who can't handle reality.

 

[madodel]

Spoke with my former Congressman yesterday who is still a friend but he was redistricted out of my area last year, about the sunsetting of the US Federal Solar Tax Credit that begins to phase out after the end of 2019. He is on Appropriations and said he has brought that up recently in discussions with others on the committee and felt good about it being extended in this years budget, at least in the US House version. Has anyone heard anything else on this? My understanding is this phases out over 2 years and as currently written disappears in 2022.

 

[Antares Nebula]

You know what I think? Elon's building the industrial equivalent of a ribosome. These are the giant, modular machines in the cell that read mRNA and translate it into proteins - they are the "machines that build the machines" for life. Although it's not quite so simple in practice, the same ribosome can make a huge variety of different proteins - all it requires is the raw materials (amino acids) and the right program (mRNA). Because Elon is so gung-ho about first principles thinking, the solutions his companies arrive at often converge with biological systems, which makes sense since the latter were produced via evolution's blind adherence to first-principles thinking. This would also fit with @Fact Checking 's speculation about the value of a modular manufacturing strategy - a cell can scale up it's "maufacturing capacity" for any protein product simply by producing more ribosomes.

The question isn't "What would aliens do?". It's "What does life do?". Which is convenient, since we can study life



This is another example of convergence of intentional first principles thinking and the products of biological evolution. There are a few forms of life that gather energy from sources other than photosynthesis (e.g. chemoautotrophs), but photosynthesis is the ultimate source of energy for pretty much all of the biosphere. So sure, @brian45011 is technically correct that all sources of energy require an investment of resources to harness, but the controversy over which source makes the most ultimate sense is manufactured. All you have to do is look outside to know which one works best, and we're finally in a position to harness it.

Interesting observation and analogy.

I'm not familiar with chemoautotrophs, but I have heard of life forms that draw energy from deep ocean thermal vents, which ultimately comes from the earth's hot core, and fall under the term geothermal energy. Having just looked it up, I think it describes the same thing:

Chemotroph - Wikipedia

It is fascinating how life can evolve to adapt to multiple sources of energy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok. That’s left field.

The question I ask myself is: what are the pros and cons of specialised purpose built machines versus multi purpose one armed robots.

A pro is speed. Canneries, bottlers, photocopiers, newsprinters, cell making machines do not use one armed robots.

A con is backup. You can’t swap out, swap in an identical unit. Unless, it’s been designed somehow in a modular, everything duplicated way.

One thing is clear. Grohmann was a great acquisition. I think Elon and this group have mutual respect.

Oh yes, all quite true. But the question remains, how can Tesla increase total auto production w/o getting access to more battery cells?

I think in a CapEx constrained environment, Tesla spends money on securing a guaranteed supply of battery cells before it builds the Dreadnaught. Unless the Dreadnaught also builds bty cells.

But that's a lot of capital, and a lot of risk. I think they do the easy stuff first with the Model Y, since it leverages the last 3 yrs of learning producing the Model 3.

'It's about the Bty cells, and FSD' -- Elon Musk

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

Well, I got a family discount. My daughter is buying me a model 3 as the wife said no. Arrives this thursday.
Will be in her name till January 1st to satisfy Uncle Sam.


SR+ Blue

Shortsville Times

Tesla tries to fight diminishing demand by gaming tax credit scheme. Fake actors are using their children's names to buy Model 3s that are dumped into San Francisco Bay using monopoly money.

P. S. please send us your ETH coins

 

[ZeApelido]

Also don't tell me Tesla doesn't pay for product placement, I just saw a several minute clip in Big Little Lies with the Tesla T steering wheel smack dab in the middle of the screen.

 

[scaesare]

To be more specific EV powertrains are still more expensive than cheaper ICE powertrains. I believe we’re already at cost parity for the very high performance ICE powertrains. E.g. Roadster 2 powertrain is probably far cheaper than LaFerarri’s.

I know Model 3P is more cost effective than a BMW M3, but I’m not sure if Tesla did it with an equivalent cost or cheaper powertrain,, or whether they did it with savings throughout the entire vehicle.

So I'm gonna be pedantic and say that I don't know of anyone in the ICE world that thinks a gas tank is included in the "powertrain". It's typically thought of as engine/transmission, and perhaps axle/differential.

The direct comparison in an EV would be inverter/motor/gearbox/differential.

The axle/differential cost would be similar amongst platforms. The EV gearbox is simpler, thus cheaper than an ICE transmission. The motor is definitely cheaper than an engine. The inverter has no real analog in he ICE world (maybe fuel management system & injectors?). I'd still bet that the EV inverter/motor combo is cheaper than the ICE/fuel mgm't/emissions/catalytic converter/muffler/exhaust system.

So... strictly speaking, I'd say that BEV powertrains are significantly cheaper than their ICE counterparts.

It's the BEV battery pack that's much more expensive than the ICE gas tank.

However, the cost to replenish a battery pack with energy is likely significantly cheaper than doing so for a gas tank.

Thus, the cost differential in manufacturing certainly is dependent on the cost per kWh for cells. The issue for the owner is that while the BEV acquisition cost (may be slightly) higher for a similar class vehicle (although even that's not necessarily the case), the TCO resulting from refueling/recharging will likely be better over the long run.

 

[Compton]

Also don't tell me Tesla doesn't pay for product placement, I just saw a several minute clip in Big Little Lies with the Tesla T steering wheel smack dab in the middle of the screen.

I would do product placement for the company for free if I was in the position to do so. How do you know that Tesla paid for this? I don't remember the thread but free of charge Tesla product placement in TV shows was just discussed recently elsewhere on the forum.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also don't tell me Tesla doesn't pay for product placement, I just saw a several minute clip in Big Little Lies with the Tesla T steering wheel smack dab in the middle of the screen.

Believe it or not but a lot of LA based multimedia directors and producers are big fans of Tesla and actively put Tesla's in their shows and movies. This is very much apparent in deadpool......of all things lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

I believe he is a process engineer at heart, and he was the mastermind behind the "Sprung Tent" that fixed the Model 3 5k/week bottleneck last year.

I agree Jerome led the effort which created GA4 seemingly magically in 3 weeks, but SpaceX has been using Sprung Structures for construction facilities for some years, so I suspect that part was Elon.

Cheers!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Whenever I see someone here recommending selling puts, I cringe. There are many on this board who do not really comprehend options and the risks involved in using options. ONLY sell puts if you are willing to buy the underlying shares at the indicated strike price. IMO, since I have been here (2 years), several posters have made this mistake and are no longer with us. In my career as a broker I saw several situations where "investors", as a result of assignment, were on the hook for more money than they had. Paying for years. NG.

One can also think about it this way. There are multiple ways to be long or short a stock. Just look at the long side, for example:

Buy stock
Buy stock on margin
Buy calls
Buy calls on margin
Sell puts
Sell puts on margin

(And you can make a similar example for shorting.)

Now, if you're long stocks, calls, and short puts (all on margin), you're extremely leveraged. This is as risky and leveraged as it gets. Not only do you have to be right about the stock in the future, you also have to be right about the timing. Very hard to do. Most will fail and be subject to margin calls.

Personally, I'm willing to take a little risk with margin and calls, but I would not sell puts in addition. Why multiply risk? Rather, I would buy puts as a hedge or insurance. Now, if you just have stock on little or no margin, then you may considering selling puts. My point is that you shouldn't go all out and do all of the above. Pick your poison, and leverage a little if you wish, and maybe hedge a little too.

The safest play is stock on little or no margin -- a set it and forget it play. If you wanna throw in a call or a short put in there somewhere every now and then, fine. Or if you're a professional trader and know what you're doing, fine also. But even then, you're not going to get it right all the time.

 

[immunogold]

Also don't tell me Tesla doesn't pay for product placement, I just saw a several minute clip in Big Little Lies with the Tesla T steering wheel smack dab in the middle of the screen.

I am reading Neal Stephenson’s (the best-selling author) latest novel (Fall; or Dodge in Hell), and one of the protagonists drives a Tesla, which is mentioned by name two or three times.
An example of another way in which Tesla is gaining cultural traction.

BTW, Neal Stephenson worked at Blue Origen for seven years as an advisor/idea person.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Believe it or not but a lot of LA based multimedia directors and producers are big fans of Tesla and actively put Tesla's in their shows and movies. This is very much apparent in deadpool......of all things lol

I saw the Tesla's in Deadpool, and squealed. My watch-mates were unamused later when they discovered why I had done so.

But Tesla, as a brand, is seen as one of the more luxurious cars to own. They tend to want to place them in the background in high cost areas, to show general wealth. Like men in business suits; you generally don't see them in low cost areas, just like you generally don't see custom purple El Camino's in movie depictions of Wall Street or similar.

Now, these type of cameo's are common for a lot of iconic cars, things like the 2 Audi Etron's in Endgame (with the one shot of the avengers all majestically standing around it, or the engine-over-sound of the sports edition 20 second scene), are very much product placements.

 

[EVMeister]

I would do product placement for the company for free if I was in the position to do so. How do you know that Tesla paid for this? I don't remember the thread but free of charge Tesla product placement in TV shows was just discussed recently elsewhere on the forum.

Believe it or not but a lot of LA based multimedia directors and producers are big fans of Tesla and actively put Tesla's in their shows and movies. This is very much apparent in deadpool......of all things lol

I've seen quite a few Teslas featured on various Netflix programmes. Some of them quite random things I was just watching to pass the time. But it's definitely a "cool" brand to feature it seems.

 

[ZeApelido]

It's one thing to show a Tesla, it's another for the T icon to be the center of the shot for minutes. Obvious product placement is obvious

 

[Fact Checking]

It's one thing to show a Tesla, it's another for the T icon to be the center of the shot for minutes. Obvious product placement is obvious

Obvious false assumption is false: while crappy brands have to pay for product placement, premium brands like Apple, frequently featured in movies, didn't pay for most of their product placement - they at most paid for the device - and Apple is obviously mass advertising while Elon is against deceptive advertisements.

I'm pretty sure that for many of those movies Microsoft would have paid a pretty sum to see a Windows laptop, a Windows phone and a Zune instead of an iPhone, in addition to a free device for the whole cast and their family members, but Apple products are shown so often because they are status symbols and are indicative of a cool lifestyle.

Just like Tesla cars.