Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

Can I get the Cliffs Notes for this post?

I'll give it a shot.

1) Production lines are based on a progression of hard automation steps.
2) Once the steps and order are defined, process capability is also defined,
3) This line is a big investment. Once this big investment is made, marginal returns are perturbations. This guides additional investment along the same path, thus limiting improvement until one is willing to reinvest the original start up cost of a new line.

4) Modular arrangements scale better as the unit of scale is not the line, but the module.
5) The new Tesla equipment is designed to support changes in mix and quantity with more flexibility than a traditional production line.
6) The key is soft automation.

 

[dc_h]

Original Budweisers are sometimes called “bud diesels” to differentiate them from Bud Lights. We’ll have to come up with a new term.

Bud’Es. Pronounced buddies.

 

[winfield100]

1.) He said it multiple times--use the grid to provide stand-by power when self generation is insufficient and to shed excess generation when self generation exceeds the house's instantaneous load--that's effectively the service of a battery connected as distributed stationary storage.
2.) Can you name a single jurisdiction that requires by law a grid connection? He said 37 states require electricity (not grid connections) for habitable structures. Self generation satisfies those legal requirements.

@brian45011
Florida for one
edit:
In Florida, USA, it is Illegal to be disconnected from the grid....
no grid, no can live there

 

[Dinoraptor101]

I'm not rich but I bought a Tesla and bought 5 shares, because it's the moral right thing to do for both the planet and the United States.


TLR
Hello there kind people and investors alike.
My philosophy in life was always do good by others and good will come to you, due to my 3rd world incarceration for 20 some years I have a bit of an awkward social skill nevertheless I decided to invest in Tesla for the good it does in both pushing for innovation in vehicle autonomy (child hood fantasy!) and clean energy, fighting global warming.

I invested when Tesla was high but I'm not upset at losing because I consider my investment (at worse) a donation towards a great cause, that proved time and time again of it's material success.

Following that I purchased a Tesla myself despite the fact my math says I cannot afford it, I do believe that sometimes you need to believe in something to get somewhere. or else why are we here?

 

[kbM3]

BEV powertrain is not at cost parity with ICE powertrain yet.

Leased batteries is BS shifting of cost.

You don't buy an ICE glyder and lease an engine/transmission.

Tesla is having problems selling a profitable vehicle under $40k.

It is partly a problem of technology and partly a problem of economies of scale.

VW Group which includes Audi seems to be the only legacy automaker committing to an economies of scale sufficient to get EV powertrains cost down to parity with ICE powertrains. Somebody will get there in 5 years or so. Doesn't mean everybody will.

To be more specific EV powertrains are still more expensive than cheaper ICE powertrains. I believe we’re already at cost parity for the very high performance ICE powertrains. E.g. Roadster 2 powertrain is probably far cheaper than LaFerarri’s.

I know Model 3P is more cost effective than a BMW M3, but I’m not sure if Tesla did it with an equivalent cost or cheaper powertrain,, or whether they did it with savings throughout the entire vehicle.

 

[kengchang]

Winning petrohead one by one

 

[Mike Smith]

Daimler warns on 2019 profit outlook as diesel issues bite - Reuters

 

[Dutchie]

That because, when you run East, you are going against earth's rotation.

Other way round. The earth rotates West to East. That is why the sun rises in the East and sets in the West

 

[sixela]

BEV powertrain is not at cost parity with ICE powertrain yet.

Exactly my point: these powertrains should actually be cheaper than ICE engines. If they're not, it's because of economies of scale that are a direct consequence of historical accident.

Leased batteries is BS shifting of cost.

You may find it BS, buit people renting a Zoe battery which causes them to be able to afford one might disagree.

It is partly a problem of technology and partly a problem of economies of scale.

No argument from me -- which is why it's solvable and why anyone who builds a discourse as if it's all due to the laws of physics is wrong. As for technology, I think it's only on the batteries' side, not the drivetrain side.

VW Group which includes Audi seems to be the only legacy automaker committing to an economies of scale sufficient to get EV powertrains cost down to parity with ICE powertrains. Somebody will get there in 5 years or so. Doesn't mean everybody will.

No argument from me. And whoever gets there first will reap huge benefits. So whatever manufacturer simply abandons the microcar market because microcar EVS are "too hard" is going to have a rather brutal wake-up call.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tested both methods in a round trip- Cleveland - Boston - Cleveland

Running east, I stopped only when necessary skipping some chargers, and it took 13 hours.
Running west, I stopped at each charger taking shorter sips and it took 12 hours.

In general, that’ll be fastest. The only exception would be if two chargers are very close together. In that case, the overhead involved in getting off the freeway and over to the supercharger overwhelms the relatively minor increase in average charging speed. On the route I usually take to go to San Diego, there’s Buttonwillow and Bakersfield superchargers within something like 5 miles of each other. No point stopping at both in that case.

Also, if you’re stopping for food or something and happened to charge enough to skip the next supercharger already, stopping at it anyway will only slow you down.

Basically: stay as close to the bottom of the battery as possible, with stops at least 30-50 miles apart.

 

[powertoold]

Winning petrohead one by one

They changed the drag race so that ICE would win. Lol

 

[EVMeister]

They changed the drag race so that ICE would win. Lol

Also, the Model 3 had 57% battery.

See 1 min 49 into the video.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Daimler warns on 2019 profit outlook as diesel issues bite - Reuters

"…Sunday’s profit warning follows news over the weekend that Daimler must recall 60,000 Mercedes diesel cars in Germany after regulators found that they were fitted with software aimed at distorting emissions tests."

Seriously?? Better clear out some more German prison cells. Coders, software managers, division managers, all the way to the top. No one can say they didn’t know what they were doing.

 

[Zaxxon]

Since the markets are closed... Here's how a bunch of us Denverites spent our morning preparing for US Independence Day.

 

[Mike Smith]

 

[Singuy]

They changed the drag race so that ICE would win. Lol

Can't wait for the Roadster 2.0. No car can catch up to that no matter how they rig it. Even if they use a fighter jet catapulting out of a aircraft carrier, the Roadster's spaceX booster pack will be like "hold my beer".

 

[jerry33]

To be more specific EV powertrains are still more expensive than cheaper ICE powertrains.

There is also the total cost of ownership, which narrows the gap by quite a bit.

 

[HG Wells]

My son is wanting to buy my 3.
I'm good with that but I hope he isn't expecting a "family discount"! lol

Dan

Well, I got a family discount. My daughter is buying me a model 3 as the wife said no. Arrives this thursday.
Will be in her name till January 1st to satisfy Uncle Sam.


SR+ Blue

 

[brantse]

All of the "gas company branded" gas station chains are just licensing the names (franchises) -- the gas stations are almost universally independently owned. In most cases they also buy from the brand's refineries, but that isn't even always the case. The chains like Sheetz often actually do own their own stations.

I live nearby Sheetz headquarters and have some acquaintances with ties to the company. Sheetz does own most of their own stores, but they do have some that are independently owned.

As far as the company goes, they are very forward thinking and growing rapidly. They obviously know what they're doing and do it well. Just like Tesla, they are extremely vertically integrated as they handle all of their own fuel distribution and even make all of their prepared foods themselves. I'm very glad they have become a partner with Tesla for the supercharger build out. I'm sure it will prove to be a smart move.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Body isn't the bottleneck right now. Battery cells are. I think the new machine makes batteries, and I think its being built in Fremont.

Ok. That’s left field.

The question I ask myself is: what are the pros and cons of specialised purpose built machines versus multi purpose one armed robots.

A pro is speed. Canneries, bottlers, photocopiers, newsprinters, cell making machines do not use one armed robots.

A con is backup. You can’t swap out, swap in an identical unit. Unless, it’s been designed somehow in a modular, everything duplicated way.

One thing is clear. Grohmann was a great acquisition. I think Elon and this group have mutual respect.