Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Annnnnd... now we do indeed see the MMD. How low will it go? Will it hit one of my targets? Can I buy a few more shares of TSLA?

OK, so my google didn't reveal this term. What does "MMD" mean?

 

[Dig deeper]

OK, so my google didn't reveal this term. What does "MMD" mean?

It stands for Mid Morning Dip.

When $TSLA gaps up or has favorable early price action it gets attacked (capped) with short sellers dumping shares to reverse momentum.

 

[EVMeister]

Annnnnd... now we do indeed see the MMD. How low will it go? Will it hit one of my targets? Can I buy a few more shares of TSLA?

Nothing stopping you.

 

[EVMeister]

It stands for Mid Morning Dip.

When $TSLA gaps up or has favorable early price action it gets attacked (capped) with short sellers dumping shares to reverse momentum.

Mandatory Morning Dip I thought. Not necessarily mid-morning when it happens.

 

[mongo]

So while the default guess is that it's a parts distribution center that might host some of the warehouse space that the Model Y production lines at Fremont will occupy, I think there's still a chance that the new Lathrop "parts distribution center" facility is a "Gigafactory hidden in plain sight", which might host the new "gigantic, gigantic, gigantic" Grohmann Machine that Jerome Guillen teased.

I thought job postings indicated at least part of it was castings. From the recent event we know the Y rear section is going to be 2 castings and 2 binder pieces followed by 1 casting (instead of 70 stamped, welded, riveted, glued pieces).

 

[Dig deeper]

Mandatory Morning Dip I thought. Not necessarily mid-morning when it happens.

I think they may have been used interchangeably at one point but you're probably right. Either way, crazy (and effective) pattern that haunts us the last few years.

 

[Maitri982]

While that might be true of Beijing, the Shanghai Gigafactory is a greenfield construction in the middle of nowhere, on former farmland, still surrounded by farmland, with very few industrial facilities nearby. Shanghai is also a coastal city, with a lot lower air pollution problems than cities that are more inland.

I'm pretty sure the face masks are primarily worn for the main reason why they are worn in the west: workplace safety, painting work is still going on, there's dangerous solvents and particulates in the air. If you look at the locals in the Shanghai Gigafactory videos, very few of them are wearing face masks.

Very few people in Shanghai wear masks, whether downtown or in the outskirts. It is a coastal city so benefits from the ocean winds unlike Beijing which is inland. But having been there recently I found the air very clean...maybe more so than New York City. The bulk of transport is people riding electric bikes everywhere....including on sidewalks...which makes me laugh when Americans wine about the Bird/Lime scooters here in the US being on sidewalks. But I digress...

So there aren't as many cars as you would think there spewing pollution. I was shocked by the lack of traffic versus other cities of much smaller scale. It is due to great public transport and people riding the e-bikes.

 

[Fact Checking]

I thought job postings indicated at least part of it was castings. From the recent event we know the Y rear section is going to be 2 castings and 2 binder pieces followed by 1 casting (instead of 70 stamped, welded, riveted, glued pieces).

Yes, but those positions might be for the existing Lathrop facilities (which we know is a machine shop and foundry in part IIRC), not the new mystery ~one million square foot building which was built last year.

 

[Unpilot]

I thought it was Mandatory Morning Dip?

It's open to interpretation but that's the one I like.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Total labor costs of the SR are about $10,000, with $28,000 parts and materials costs, according to two tear-downs.

The SEC filings don't agree with the teardowns. I can't find more than 4k of total labor in a SR+, and it's probably more like 2-3k.

Production labor is ~1k/car at typical North American plants. Tesla assembly is inefficient, but not that inefficient.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Umm.. No.

S Padival on Twitter

S Padival on Twitter

So, I’m about as trusting of the press at this point as the rest of you. But in all fairness, there’s a big difference between tweeting random offensive crap all the time aimed at other people and tweeting at a person that their specific work is crap.

 

[Nocturnal]

Very few people in Shanghai wear masks, whether downtown or in the outskirts. It is a coastal city so benefits from the ocean winds unlike Beijing which is inland. But having been there recently I found the air very clean...maybe more so than New York City. The bulk of transport is people riding electric bikes everywhere....including on sidewalks...which makes me laugh when Americans wine about the Bird/Lime scooters here in the US being on sidewalks. But I digress...

So there aren't as many cars as you would think there spewing pollution. I was shocked by the lack of traffic versus other cities of much smaller scale. It is due to great public transport and people riding the e-bikes.

The irrational anger against those things baffles me. We have them here in KC. It's really not a big deal and each one being used represents one less car navigating downtown.

 

[VValleyEV]

Wheel spin? I get no wheel spin in my XP100DL, I can stomp on the pedal at any speed and in any conditions and it never loses traction, which is quite remarkable really.

I wonder if we could make a concise bullet list of CR Tesla FUD points, and put it out there on twitter.

 

[kengchang]

In Beijing in *1986* it was standard to wear a face mask because of the air pollution. It didn't help much but it was better than nothing. The air pollution has apparently gotten much worse since then. I'm quite sure all the people in Shanghai are wearing face masks because of air pollution.

"Bioweapon Defense Mode" will be on most of the time in Chinese cities. :-(

That's true, mask got super popular in Taiwan due to breakout of SARS. That thing was nasty

 

[tinm]

Update:
I'll be speaking with the NYT reporter today. Looking forward to the discussion.

 

[kengchang]

My turn for Solar+Powerwall install. They are working like killer bees on the roof.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My turn for Solar+Powerwall install. They are working like killer bees on the roof.

View attachment 422739

Congrats, let us know how it goes. Very interested in seeing Tesla bang these out faster and get the residential market humming. Cheap and easy seems just around the corner, maybe we're there?

 

[kengchang]

Congrats, let us know how it goes. Very interested in seeing Tesla bang these out faster and get the residential market humming. Cheap and easy seems just around the corner, maybe we're there?

The job is scheduled for a day only, we shall see.

 

[mongo]

Total labor costs of the SR are about $10,000, with $28,000 parts and materials costs, according to two tear-downs.

The SEC filings don't agree with the teardowns. I can't find more than 4k of total labor in a SR+, and it's probably more like 2-3k.

Production labor is ~1k/car at typical North American plants. Tesla assembly is inefficient, but not that inefficient.

The teardowns were on LR vehicles and the total was $28k ($18k materials $10k labor).
Tesla Model 3 Teardown Reveals It's Relatively Cheap To Produce

I think the 10k is estimated total non-BOM costs (labor + equipmemt depreciation + factory overhead, factor in vertical integration for Tesla build parts)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla’s communication problems continue. I’ve been sitting for ~30 minutes waiting for the online chat support to start up. Still just “We’re connecting you with a Tesla expert...”. *sigh* This was, for a little bit, the way to quickly get support vs waiting an hour on hold on the phone or sending an email, which I’m fairly sure is immediately, automatically printed directly into an incinerator.

(Note: I’m not bugging them for no reason, Autopilot on my car has been randomly disengaging in the middle of driving. Happened 7 times just this morning. Seems specific to my car)