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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla’s communication problems continue. I’ve been sitting for ~30 minutes waiting for the online chat support to start up. Still just “We’re connecting you with a Tesla expert...”. *sigh* This was, for a little bit, the way to quickly get support vs waiting an hour on hold on the phone or sending an email, which I’m fairly sure is immediately, automatically printed directly into an incinerator.

(Note: I’m not bugging them for no reason, Autopilot on my car has been randomly disengaging in the middle of driving. Happened 7 times just this morning. Seems specific to my car)
Don't know what Tesla uses for chat, but there was a major network disruption earlier today that affected my Nest camera. Could be ongoing?

According to ThousandEyes:

"Starting at ~7am ET, a major internet disruption occurred in what appears to be a significant BGP route leak event affecting a variety of prefixes from multiple providers, including Cloudflare & AWS. Sites served through the Cloudflare CDN were impacted for ~2 hours.

ThousandEyes data saw multiple instances where the network of Allegheny Technologies (AS396531) was inserted as a new next hop for altered BGP paths going to prefixes owned by AWS and Cloudflare."
 
BTW., in principle the prototype factory could be built at the mystery "parts distribution center" at Lathrop:


If it's indeed basically a giant machine, then all it needs externally are loading bays for the incoming parts. Having it relatively close to Fremont would allow the use of all the automation and factory maintenance talent of Tesla.

<snip>

So while the default guess is that it's a parts distribution center that might host some of the warehouse space that the Model Y production lines at Fremont will occupy, I think there's still a chance that the new Lathrop "parts distribution center" facility is a "Gigafactory hidden in plain sight", which might host the new "gigantic, gigantic, gigantic" Grohmann Machine that Jerome Guillen teased. :D

Although Part Deux of the CleanTechnica interview with Jerome was published last week, the actual 45' interview with Jerome happened "in early March". So although that info isn't necessarily stale, we have received additional clues since from Elon, JB, and Drew Baglino at the June 11 AGM (links below to video; my annotations in color):

Elon: (59:57) "A lot of this is dependant upon our ability to make a lot of cells, and a lot of battery packs. We're matching product rollout to the scale of battery production. That's really the main limiting factor." (With the 35GWh/yr promised from GF1 by 2020, that's only enough to produce Model Y @ ~180K/yr or 3,600/wk. That brings Fremont to a respectable 10K/wk, 500K/yr output on Model 3+Y but below Y demand).

Elon: (1:00:39) "If I were an outside investor, I would really focus on two things: what is the timeline to full self driving, and what is your plan to scale battery production and get the cost per kilowatt hour lower. It's basically battery cells, and full self driving. Those are the two strategic things that are of most importance." (Note that strategic priorities dictate capital spending priorities. The FSD budget is set, bty cell production is the next strategic opportunity).

Elon: (1:01:34) "We don't want to let the cat out of the bag too much." (Battery and Driveline Investor Day gag order in effect -- nudge, wink).

JB: "I think its right on. Those are the right problems we need to solve to scale (JB refers to Elon's immediately preceding comment about battery cells and full self driving), and they have been for some time (acknowledges ongoing supply issues w. Panasonic) but its more obvious now than I think it ever was that we need a large scale solution to cell production." (this part is CRITICAL. Is JB saying they need to build a giant, giant, giant machine to build battery cells? Is this necessarily in addition to GF1? Is this what Jerome was alluding to in early March? Whole lotta nudgin' and winkin' goin' on up in here!)

Drew: "And we're not sitting idly by, we're taking all the moves required to be masters of our own destiny here, technologically and otherwise. (Maxwell acquisition, Q2 Capital raise) I think through all the experience we've developed through partners (Panasonic) and otherwise (Maxwell, Jeff Dahn) we have solutions in place." (oh yeah, they have a plan in motion, they're just not ready to share. Gotta supply cells for 10K/wk Model Y, Tesla Semi and Roadster, Pickup truck, eventual Model S/X refresh, Model 2, Bicycle...)

So overall, I'm glad to be a Tesla and not a Daimler investor today.

Cheers!
 
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The mixture of lazy headline writing, clickbait, and outright bias/FUD is a dangerous combination. Most people ONLY read headlines.

upload_2019-6-24_12-19-39.png
upload_2019-6-24_12-19-39.png
Notice the subtle difference between the Bloomberg and yahoo headlines. It's hard to imagine that isn't intentional. The Bloomberg headline actually removed a word in the middle of an actual quote.

Actual quote.
“We got it wrong so far this year, but remain convinced there is significant value,” Jefferies analysts Philippe Houchois and Himanshu Agarwal wrote in a note Friday

Removing "so far" changes the entire meaning of the quote. I tweeted this out to Bloomberg and Tesla.
 
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The mixture of lazy headline writing, clickbait, and outright bias/FUD is a dangerous combination. Most people ONLY read headlines.

View attachment 422755 View attachment 422755
Notice the subtle difference between the Bloomberg and yahoo headlines. It's hard to imagine that isn't intentional. The Bloomberg headline actually removed a word in the middle of an actual quote.

Actual quote.
“We got it wrong so far this year, but remain convinced there is significant value,” Jefferies analysts Philippe Houchois and Himanshu Agarwal wrote in a note Friday

Removing "so far" changes the entire meaning of the quote. I tweeted this out to Bloomberg and Tesla.
Love that first headline, "still 121% growth". I wish other traditional and much more lauded companies on the exchanges had a measly 121% growth...
 
Tesla’s communication problems continue. I’ve been sitting for ~30 minutes waiting for the online chat support to start up. Still just “We’re connecting you with a Tesla expert...”. *sigh* This was, for a little bit, the way to quickly get support vs waiting an hour on hold on the phone or sending an email, which I’m fairly sure is immediately, automatically printed directly into an incinerator.

(Note: I’m not bugging them for no reason, Autopilot on my car has been randomly disengaging in the middle of driving. Happened 7 times just this morning. Seems specific to my car)

My AP has been randomly disengaging too. They told me to wait for the next update and I'm on the .20 one. It's still happening. I put in a mobile service ticket and someone from mobile service is going to come and check out the car. Can you please let me know what you hear?

Here's the funny thing - I am now considering upgrading to the Raven and doing some cost analysis lol. I hope thye are not pulling an Apple shady thing where Apple 'slows' down the phone to get you to upgrade lol.
 
Love that first headline, "still 121% growth". I wish other traditional and much more lauded companies on the exchanges had a measly 121% growth...
We went from the "there is no demand, deliveries will be super low" narrative to the "ok, lots of cars this month just not as much as my arbitrary numbers so it's a big miss" narrative so fast.

My AP has been randomly disengaging too. They told me to wait for the next update and I'm on the .20 one. It's still happening. I put in a mobile service ticket and someone from mobile service is going to come and check out the car. Can you please let me know what you hear?

Here's the funny thing - I am now considering upgrading to the Raven and doing some cost analysis lol. I hope thye are not pulling an Apple shady thing where Apple 'slows' down the phone to get you to upgrade lol.
I know you are joking but resale value is important for cars (to the manufacturer) but isn't an issue for phone manufactures.
 
My AP has been randomly disengaging too. They told me to wait for the next update and I'm on the .20 one. It's still happening. I put in a mobile service ticket and someone from mobile service is going to come and check out the car. Can you please let me know what you hear?

Here's the funny thing - I am now considering upgrading to the Raven and doing some cost analysis lol. I hope thye are not pulling an Apple shady thing where Apple 'slows' down the phone to get you to upgrade lol.
No change to the charging cable for Tesla...
 
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Today 245 Teslas registered in Norway (so far) according to Tesla Registration Stats.

In June 2722 (so far) compared to 1116 in all of june 2018.

Still a week of june to go.


_192 in January
1020 in February
5828 in Mars (rush delivering years worth of orders)
_822 in April
1017 in May
2722 in June (incomplete)
 
Today 245 Teslas registered in Norway (so far) according to Tesla Registration Stats.

In June 2722 (so far) compared to 1116 in all of june 2018.

Still a week of june to go.


_192 in January
1020 in February
5828 in Mars (rush delivering years worth of orders)
_822 in April
1017 in May
2722 in June (incomplete)
Breakdown
upload_2019-6-24_11-28-29.png