Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

This kind of stuff pops up periodically - rich people asking to be taxed more. Two things I always think of when I see this. First, if you look at these people's tax returns, they typically find every single loophole they can to get out of paying taxes. The 2nd thing I think is, why do you need a law to make you pay more? Anyone can pay all they want to pay. You think you should pay more? - DO IT!! In fact, they should start a new "Welfare Dept" that is separate from, but regulated by the govt (sort of like the Federal Reserve). People can give all they want to this welfare dept and it's all tax deductible (and the only tax deductible charity). The dept has to be totally self sufficient meaning donations have to administer the dept also. The dept would help eliminate hunger, homelessness, etc. And this would be good because the rich would be ensured that their money wouldn't be used to fund wars or subsidize corporations (or build walls). I'd be VERY curious to see how many of these super rich people bothered to donate. In fact, I'm willing to bet the Welfare Dept would be broke in a very short time.

So, I always think these are nothing more than publicity stunts. If they really raised taxes on these folks, they'd move somewhere that has lower taxes.

Maybe some. But they're not insincere for wanting a fair, level playing field.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Yes - and this note coming so late in the quarter signals that it’s not entirely clear they’ll make it. Therefore, any estimate outside of a relatively narrow 88,000 to 92,000 range is pretty unlikely.

Heck, the day before Q3 closed last year Musk e-mailed that Tesla might possibly show a profit if everyone pitched in and gave an all-out effort. They made 300m! I'm sure that last 24 hours put them in the black, lol.

If he believed an email like this could goose sales by an extra couple thousand cars he'd send it even if 95k was already in the bag.

 

[PeterJA]

I try to focus on how you wake up every morning with a full charge, but it’s hard to bust that mindset of having to stop to refuel once a week or more, which causes them to erroneously equate charging with gas station fill up times.

Ask them: How much time do you spend charging your cellphone?

A question engages the human mind more than a statement.
An analogy helps folks with little imagination.

 

[ggr]

Mod:
I moved a bunch of posts debating climate change to a new thread: Forbidden climate debate (out of Main)
But I want to point out that there's an entire sub-forum about this stuff. I/we already declared it off-topic for the main thread.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on one's point of view) some of the content was too good to just nuke.
Of course that good content could have been in its own thread in the first place.

I will remind you all that moderators' time and patience is limited and moving articles and writing diatribes is much more work than hitting our "delete" button. Which is what will happen to any more such posts in this thread. Accompanied by a time-out, just to prove I mean it.

And I'll mention again, don't post entire copyrighted articles. Same treatment applies from now on.

Grr.
--ggr.

 

[NakedLong]

BTW., did you guys notice this news item from yesterday:

US super-rich call for wealth tax

A Message From the Billionaire’s Club: Tax Us

'The final signatory was “Anonymous.”'​

I believe there's a fair chance that "Anonymous" is Elon Musk - reportedly most of Elon's philanthropy is anonymous.

I doubt it after his 'Chomsky sucks' tweet and his follow up 'Chomsky is the Iago of socio-economic theory & Piketty is his docile puppet'.

Elon also has another quote:

> 'By the way, I am actually a socialist. Just not the kind that shifts resources from most productive to least productive, pretending to do good, while actually causing harm. True socialism seeks greatest good for all.'

So considering how productive Elon's companies are, I can only surmise that he would not want to pay more tax as that would eat away at his ability to go to Mars/have sustainable energy.

I also don't feel like Elon is using the idea of socialism correctly under this definition:

> a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

I also remember him talking about incentives and he said he just wants a fair playing field with no incentives for oil or electric, and that the cost of pollution needs to be factored into the price of ICE cars.

Taking all these quotes together, politically and economically he seems like a libertarian capitalist, who views government intervention as often standing in the way of progress by supporting old incumbents like dealer networks, ULA, oil companies, etc. I'm not saying it wasn't his signature, but I suspect he wants to make more money for his goals not give it away to be used inefficiently.

Also, as a big Chomsky fan, I found these Chomsky tweets unnecessarily obtuse.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

But it sets up the coming narrative. If Tesla delivers 50 cars less than 4th quarter 18 the stock will drop like a brick. If it makes 50 more it will be because of dropping EV tax benefits and the stock will drop like a brick. The story is covered both ways.

Markets like profit. It still comes down to “show me the money”. Tesla needs to continue working towards this and show results...which I believe they will. But probably not this year as they get all the car pipelines filled.

Real investors won’t be affected but short thinking (not shorts) emotional “investors” will continue to have a hard time with the coming ride.

Jmho

I was long.
I'm still long.
I gonna be long for...yeah you got it, a long time.

You're right, the stock price will probably fall no matter what the numbers are next month, short of a massive "beat". It's just going to be that way for a while. Too much growing to be done. Too many factories to be built. Too many new products to ramp. Too much CapEx to spend. Sit back and enjoy the ride while the shorts get more and more desperate.

Dan

 

[aubreymcfato]

> 'By the way, I am actually a socialist. Just not the kind that shifts resources from most productive to least productive, pretending to do good, while actually causing harm. True socialism seeks greatest good for all.'

So considering how productive Elon's companies are, I can only surmise that he would not want to pay more tax as that would eat away at his ability to go to Mars/have sustainable energy.

I also don't feel like Elon is using the idea of socialism correctly under this definition:

> a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

I also remember him talking about incentives and he said he just wants a fair playing field with no incentives for oil or electric, and that the cost of pollution needs to be factored into the price of ICE cars.

Taking all these quotes together, politically and economically he seems like a libertarian capitalist, who views government intervention as often standing in the way of progress by supporting old incumbents like dealer networks, ULA, oil companies, etc. I'm not saying it wasn't his signature, but I suspect he wants to make more money for his goals not give it away to be used inefficiently.

Also, as a big Chomsky fan, I found these Chomsky tweets unnecessarily obtuse.

Yeah, it's tweet like these (and the ones vs journalists and unions) that actually turned a lot of progressives against Elon.
He just doesn't think much when he's on Twitter, sadly.

 

[Icer]

Guess offering insurance by EV manufacturers has become a thing.

Porsche announces Taycan insurance to make US owners’ transition to EVs easier | TESLARATI

This is misleading.
The program will apply to all Porsche vehicles, "going back to 1981", and is only available in Oregon and Illinois.
"though the carmaker has stated that it is looking to roll out the service to a third state by the end of 2019.
A rollout to other US areas is currently under evaluation."

Edit; Prepare for this distorted headline to fuel the "EVs must be expensive to insure" fear bait.

 

[LN1_Casey]

This is misleading.
The program will apply to all Porsche vehicles, "going back to 1981", and is only available in Oregon and Illinois.
"though the carmaker has stated that it is looking to roll out the service to a third state by the end of 2019.
A rollout to other US areas is currently under evaluation."

Edit; Prepare for this distorted headline to fuel the "EVs must be expensive to insure" fear bait.

The article does claim, however, that it's because electrics (or Tesla) DO tend to be more expensive to insure. Porsche maybe using the Taycan as an excuse to dip their toe into this market, btu the fact remains is that they are awaiting for the Taycan to implement this program. It's more unlikely that people with ICE vehicles already deployed will switch to the new program, since they already have insurance and a lot of people are lazy.

 

[StealthP3D]

If he believed an email like this could goose sales by an extra couple thousand cars he'd send it even if 95k was already in the bag.

Not only that, if Musk knew they were going to have a blow-out quarter, he could have sent that e-mail to provide false confidence to the shorts.

He-he.

 

[Yonki]

It's a classic variant of the prisoner's dilemma. Look it up.

It's the same reason that the US doesn't unilaterally disarm, and that Russia doesn't unilaterally disarm, but if they have a treaty, the US and Russia can both disarm.

You should be smarter than this. I'm going to guess you aren't a supporter of unilateral disarmament.

The goal is to get *every* rich person to pay more. If you're Musk, you don't want to pay more *while* the Koch brothers pay less, because then the Koch Brothers can spend more money on pro-fossil fuel campagins, while Musk has less money to spend on anti-fossil-fuel campaigns. Even if Musk and the Koch Brothers both agree that the government should have more funding, they can't agree to do it unilaterally, because then the other side has an incentive to "betray" --- they need it to happen to everyone ("cooperation").

Wow, I never thought to apply the Prisoner’s Dilemma to this question but it’s perfect. The other advantage to making everyone do it is it will cost individual billionaires less to have the same “effect” than if it was voluntary.

 

[aznt1217]

Not entirely sure what's happening but with all the news that the VP of Production is leaving. KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

Chances are most of the value add he brought is baked in and/or he is no longer a fit for the company with the way it is now. That or he's just tired. People change jobs big whoopee.

Tesla's new VP of Vehicle Production is impressed: 'they are about seven years beyond everything I’ve seen before' - Electrek

 

[brantse]

CNBC's lead story right now. I haven't read the article yet, but am sure there's a negative spin.

Tesla has a secret lab trying to build its own battery cells to reduce dependence on Panasonic

 

[mariaaa]

Lets assume Tesla will indeed hit between 90'000 to 92'000 deliveries and reporting a GAAP loss of around US 280$ million.

How will this affect stock price? Positively, neutral or negatively? I do certaintly have no idea.

 

[mickificki]

Not entirely sure what's happening but with all the news that the VP of Production is leaving. KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

Chances are most of the value add he brought is baked in and/or he is no longer a fit for the company with the way it is now. That or he's just tired. People change jobs big whoopee.

Tesla's new VP of Vehicle Production is impressed: 'they are about seven years beyond everything I’ve seen before' - Electrek

Article was from Oct 2016. Just amazing how far we've come in less than three years.

 

[gtrplyr1]

CNBC's lead story right now. I haven't read the article yet, but am sure there's a negative spin.

Tesla has a secret lab trying to build its own battery cells to reduce dependence on Panasonic

These are the kind of stories you do NOT want out there if you are Tesla. While I think most of us would expect Tesla to be working on battery tech that could free them from Panasonic, it's not something that should be talked about. No fan of the author ... as most on the board here would not be.

Musk and company need to get in front o f this story and find the leak, this is basically corporate espionage as far as I'm concerned. Maybe I'm taking this too far but the less the competition and 3rd party vendors know about future plans Tesla has, the better.

 

[powertoold]

These are the kind of stories you do NOT want out there if you are Tesla. While I think most of us would expect Tesla to be working on battery tech that could free them from Panasonic, it's not something that should be talked about. No fan of the author ... as most on the board here would not be.

Musk and company need to get in front o f this story and find the leak, this is basically corporate espionage as far as I'm concerned. Maybe I'm taking this too far but the less the competition and 3rd party vendors know about future plans Tesla has, the better.

Elon and co all but confirmed it at the shareholders meeting...

 

[mongo]

These are the kind of stories you do NOT want out there if you are Tesla. While I think most of us would expect Tesla to be working on battery tech that could free them from Panasonic, it's not something that should be talked about. No fan of the author ... as most on the board here would not be.

Musk and company need to get in front o f this story and find the leak, this is basically corporate espionage as far as I'm concerned. Maybe I'm taking this too far but the less the competition and 3rd party vendors know about future plans Tesla has, the better.

I think you are taking this too far.
The purchase of Maxwell is public knowledge. The cell job postings are public knowledge. That Tesla's growth is dependent on cells is public knowledge. Kato road as the location may not have been, but that is not anything important.

 

[Chocochip]

Heck, the day before Q3 closed last year Musk e-mailed that Tesla might possibly show a profit if everyone pitched in and gave an all-out effort. They made 300m! I'm sure that last 24 hours put them in the black, lol.

If he believed an email like this could goose sales by an extra couple thousand cars he'd send it even if 95k was already in the bag.

I'll go one further: if he felt there's a real chance they will fall below target, putting out this email (which he knows by now will reach investors by next day) would be even more damaging once delivery numbers are posted, as it would indicate that the company couldn't push hard enough. Sub-target deliveries without the email might be interpreted as "they couldn't get there no matter how hard they tried, the target was simply too high this Q".

Which leaves us with the option that he knows it's in the bag, but he's going for a blowout deliveries number.

Grain of salt, not advice, etc.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Lets assume Tesla will indeed hit between 90'000 to 92'000 deliveries and reporting a GAAP loss of around US 280$ million.

How will this affect stock price? Positively, neutral or negatively? I do certaintly have no idea.

In my opinion it will go down.

As I posted earlier, if they near 100K deliveries and are GAAP neutral then maybe it goes up to say $250. Anything else, the shorts will beat it down as more evidence that demand is not sustainable and burning more cash.

AKA the TSLA circus.

Just my two cents of course.

Dan