Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Except the Netherlands did a crazy record and both Norway and Spain were down more than 8% from Q1. So the question is, whether the Dutch numbers are the outlier or Norway and Spain are.

Or whether they average out.

 

[PeterJA]

I believe the author is simply confused about what Tesla’s goal is... I will give Matt DeBord the benefit of the doubt and assume he is just clueless, on this particular occasion.

Yes, apparently Matt didn't watch Tesla's Autonomy Day presentation, didn't read Tesla's Master Plan Part Deux, didn't see any of ARK Invest's numerous media appearances in which they explain that Tesla's goal is to sell as many autonomy-capable cars as possible before unleashing Tesla Network.

How strange that Business Insider gives this Tesla "expert" a global platform on which to publish his opinion. How puzzling.

 

[neroden]

I wonder if they ever look back in awe at how far they've come. It wasn't so long ago they were declaring the Model X completely unbuildable, and now they're all the way up to "sure, they can deliver half a million cars a year, but..." excuses. Can't wait to see what they come up with next. Perhaps by 2025, we'll be hearing "sure Tesla is making a killing profit-wise and dominating the worldwide electric car market, but just look at the Tesla Killers the mainstream manufacturers have coming as soon as they emerge from bankruptcy!"

You know what, you're probably right. I was following the goofily positive news stories about all the coal companies emerging from bankruptcy (they *all* went bankrupt)... the stories were saying how they're in a great position now that they've stiffed their bondholders, their pensioners, etc. Well, I was reading those stories for a year or two... now the news has noticed that the coal companies are still doomed and are set to go bankrupt again. But "Just wait, the companies coming out of bankruptcy will do great" seems to be a popular media meme to push for unknown reasons.

 

[X Fan]

Warmed the heart this afternoon seeing some Teslas while visiting Le Bon Marche' in Paris. First a Black S and this S charging near the store.

btw: as EV penetration grows this type of charging station will need to be the norm in big cities.

 

[geneclean55]

It appears they stopped doing that. Or at least we've seen ships from SF Pier 80 carrying both Model 3 and S/X. So I am not sure if they kept the East Coast (Houston?) shipments as well.

S/X destined for Norway can go via RORO. But EU shipments of S/X still get assembled at Tilburg. These go via cargo ships.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Warmed the heart this afternoon seeing some Teslas while visiting Le Bon Marche' in Paris. First a Black S and this S charging near the store.

btw: as EV penetration grows this type of charging station will need to be the norm in big cities.

View attachment 425020

When I was in Paris, I saw 19 Teslas. One model X, 3 or 4 model 3's, and the rest model S, including two Tesla Taxi's. I saw 24 Tesla's total while in France, as the others were seen on a tour I took of Normandy and nearby cities.

 

[ZachShahan]

As both Tesla, Jaguar and Volkswagen designers/executives explained and demonstrated, having no ICE engine at all (even as an option) and designing a car for BEV only is a massive competitive technological advantage:

• A PHEV ICE engine has to be in the front (or the rear), due to physics (no flat engine possible).
• This means that such a shared PHEV/BEV platform cannot use the "Tesla skateboard design" that the I-Pace and Volkswagen I.D. is using too, which design of having 'bulk' battery packs instead of flat (skateboard) battery packs has numerous disadvantages:
  • Mass of the battery pack is either in the front or the back. If it's 50%/50% then that increases the "polar momentum" of the car significantly, making handling (cornering) worse.
  • Beyond handling, the violence and injury probability of off-center side collisions depends on low polar momentum: the easier the car rotates away from the point of impact, the more time there is for passengers to decelerate safely - fewer injuries.
  • The skateboard design also turns the battery pack into a structural support in side collisions: Teslas are extremely stiff in side collisions when there's very little intrusion distance that can be allowed, even compared to Volvos (!). With a bulk battery pack design there's very little structural role it can play, other than to be in the way.
    
  • Skateboard design also lowers the center of gravity to ridiculously low, race car levels: this helps cornering, but also safety, low center of gravity means lower risk of the car to roll over.
  • Frontal collisions safety: empty frunk space is a very good crunch zone, while PHEV engines and battery packs are not.
• Safety features like Cabin Overheat Protection or Dog Mode are not possible with PHEVs that have small, easy to deplete batteries. Preheating of the car becomes harder.
• "Always on" security features like Sentry Mode depend on a generously sized battery. I also expect some FSD features, like watching surroundings, to eventually be active while parked too. All this requires a generous electricity supply.
• Trunk+trunk is popular - but if the battery pack is in the front there's no frunk space.
• Luxury/premium cars are incredibly integrated designs where most components have an effect on other parts of the car. There are hundreds of other small optimizations you can do if there's only a single platform. In automotive dual platforms tend to unify the worst of both worlds.

I believe BMW is fundamentally mistaken in thinking that BEV and PHEV premium cars can share a dual platform.

It might have worked 5 years ago, as a stop-gap measure that might have given time to divorce ICE engines. It might also work for mass market cars in the $20k price range.

But it's inadequate today that customers and competitors can see the advantages of BEV-only premium car designs, and certainly not in 2021-2023 when BMWs new designs will enter volume production.

A year or two ago, a VW exec expressed what seemed to be genuine bewilderment about BMW's & Daimler's PHEV-heavy strategy. He said something along the lines of, "We [at VW] don't get it."

 

[wipster]

Warmed the heart this afternoon seeing some Teslas while visiting Le Bon Marche' in Paris. First a Black S and this S charging near the store.

btw: as EV penetration grows this type of charging station will need to be the norm in big cities.

View attachment 425020

So they didn't change to Le Macy's in France?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Is it just battery supply that's dictating this, or a reluctance to increase the production?

No idea. I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t want to increase production but production numbers seem to be stuck. Or maybe they are increasing and I’m reading the wrong sources.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The very end of this video I think sums up why Wall Street just doesn't get Tesla, and probably will not get it for a long time. The last thing said in this clip by the guy in the pink shirt (sorry, don't know his name) where he says "5 years is a long time. I want to see what they'll do tomorrow."

They have no desire to see future projections. They don't care about coming technology. They only care about production and delivery numbers NOW. They can not and will not value this company on anything else. The odd thing is that when given those numbers and shown exponential growth YOY, they just move their projections to support their thesis.

I am really trying to understand their side of the argument...I really am. I just can't get their arguments to make any sense in my head. They just raised plenty of cash to see them through the immediate short term. They are showing sales that are in the neighborhood of 100% YOY growth seemingly ensuring cash to support their growth going forward.

What am I missing here?

Dan

 

[PeterJA]

A year or two ago, a VW exec expressed what seemed to be genuine bewilderment about BMW's & Daimler's PHEV-heavy strategy. He said something along the lines of, "We [at VW] don't get it."

BMW's only hope in a few years is a massive government bailout. But that might be harder to sell when VW showed more foresight.
"Why the Hölle didn't you do like VW -- send your C-suite to prison and hire new blood?"

 

[mblakele]

The very end of this video I think sums up why Wall Street just doesn't get Tesla, and probably will not get it for a long time. The last thing said in this clip by the guy in the pink shirt (sorry, don't know his name) where he says "5 years is a long time. I want to see what they'll do tomorrow."

They have no desire to see future projections. They don't care about coming technology. They only care about production and delivery numbers NOW. They can not and will not value this company on anything else. The odd thing is that when given those numbers and shown exponential growth YOY, they just move their projections to support their thesis.

I am really trying to understand their side of the argument...I really am. I just can't get their arguments to make any sense in my head. They just raised plenty of cash to see them through the immediate short term. They are showing sales that are in the neighborhood of 100% YOY growth seemingly ensuring cash to support their growth going forward.

What am I missing here?

Dan

The investment time horizon? ARK has a five year horizon for TSLA. Tomorrow-guy sounds like a short-term trader.

I wonder where a sample of TSLA longs and shorts would fall on the marshmallow test? I'd expect longs to be much better at deferring gratification.

 

[Sancho]

The very end of this video I think sums up why Wall Street just doesn't get Tesla, and probably will not get it for a long time. The last thing said in this clip by the guy in the pink shirt (sorry, don't know his name) where he says "5 years is a long time. I want to see what they'll do tomorrow."

They have no desire to see future projections. They don't care about coming technology. They only care about production and delivery numbers NOW. They can not and will not value this company on anything else. The odd thing is that when given those numbers and shown exponential growth YOY, they just move their projections to support their thesis.

I am really trying to understand their side of the argument...I really am. I just can't get their arguments to make any sense in my head. They just raised plenty of cash to see them through the immediate short term. They are showing sales that are in the neighborhood of 100% YOY growth seemingly ensuring cash to support their growth going forward.

What am I missing here?

Dan

I'm with you, but Tesla's most recently reported quarter showed sales that were tapering, generating massive losses. When Tesla actually reports what you suggest: "sales that are in the neighborhood of 100% YOY growth seemingly ensuring cash to support their growth going forward" , then sentiment will change. In the next several quarters Tesla is likely to post the kind of numbers that look like a sustainably growing business, but that hasn't happened yet, and a lot of money is going to stay on the sidelines until those numbers are actually reported.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

When Tesla actually reports what you suggest: "sales that are in the neighborhood of 100% YOY growth

You... realize that the quarter you cited as “sales tapering” was well over 100% YOY growth, yes?

 

[Fred42]

Some partially Tesla related info. Some of the local facebook groups have accounts of what we found out when we put down our deposit on an Eplus Leaf SL last month. All the allotted 2019 Eplus Leafs have been sold or assigned in this province. Now anybody wanting one is being told 10 months as even most of the 2020’s allotted to the province have been pre-sold. (We have to wait till Feb for ours). The Kona customers are getting similar responses but shorter waits and there are still a few on Vancouver lots. But the Tesla angle is that many in the discussions are just saying screw it and are ordering Tesla’s which they can get in a month to 6 weeks. Tesla is still the only mass manufacturer of EV’s and its starting to show in a big way.

Right now about 8 percent of all new auto sales in B.C. are Electric. Just conjecture on my part but for the rest of the year I bet 90 percent will be Tesla’s. I think within a couple years our poor Leafie will be surrounded by a sea of model 3’s. We’ll be the poor cousins. .

Seriously though. Compared to a year ago there are a BUNCH of model 3’s driving around our little town. Kinda cool. .

Hopefully the 3's will be polite to their challenged distant cousins.

(I have read your posts about charging in BC.)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla should be more like BMW

I don't think Tesla wants to do recalls to fix fire hazards

 

[Chocochip]

It’s Elon Musk’s Birthday Here Are a Bunch of Goofy Photos We Took - MotorTrend

"Happy 48th Elon! It's Tesla CEO Elon Musk's birthday today, and what better way to celebrate than with a gallery of photos of the man himself hamming it up for us during a recent interview we conducted with him."

Seems like there’s an interview with Franz (maybe) & Elon (definitely) coming up!

Ok, I have this hunch… it’s not based on much, but it’s a strong hunch: tomorrow we’ll be introduced to the redesigned Model S!

Reasons:
1. We all know it’s coming at some point, we just don’t know when. The Model S has been for too long now compared unfavourably to the Model 3 in terms of the tech available and its interior design, it’s time for it to regain its flagship role.
2. The Model S drivetrain just got updated, and some may think this is a clear message from the company that no other major updates are imminent; I actually think the drivetrain update was i) easier/quicker to implement, and ii) was meant to bring on some of the fence-sitters. However, I think a majority of customers looking for their next car is simply not aware of that upgrade because it’s just not something “visible” and dramatic enough. It may simply be too difficult to simultaneously do an exterior / interior update AND a drivetrain update.
3. Yesterday Motortrend did an interview with Elon Musk. Because it was his birthday. And that’s supposed to make sense. And Franz was there because… he’s Elon’s buddy, right? And the Model S 2011 prototype was brought out because… they needed one extra red car in the background for the photo shoot. Not because they wanted to show the design progression.
4. Tomorrow is the first day of Q3. If Tesla is to announce an update, early in a new quarter is the best time to do it, and they have a history of introducing updates or price changes early in the quarter.
5. If memory serves, the Raven was promoted via a Motortrend piece.

I have no idea if the redesign will involve an interior + exterior remake, or just one of those… if there’s an exterior redesign, I expect a modified battery pack as well.

There’s a good chance I'm completely wrong about this. But then again, I might be right!

 

[Sancho]

You... realize that the quarter you cited as “sales tapering” was well over 100% YOY growth, yes?

Yes, but revenues were down 41% QOQ. We're on the same side here, I'm as long TSLA as it comes. But there's a reason that the shorts are able to manipulate the SP, and that's because the big money is mostly sitting on the sidelines. Most big money isn't venture capital, it needs to see results, not projections. During Q3 and Q4 the results were promising, but then Q1 was a huge disappointment. Tesla needs to demonstrate that Q1 was an aberration. I think they will, you think they will, but big money needs to see the numbers.

 

[Off Shore]

So they didn't change to Le Macy's in France?

Nobody but you and me are going to get that joke.

 

[wipster]

Ok, I have this hunch… it’s not based on much, but it’s a strong hunch: tomorrow we’ll be introduced to the redesigned Model S!

Reasons:
1. We all know it’s coming at some point, we just don’t know when. The Model S has been for too long now compared unfavourably to the Model 3 in terms of the tech available and its interior design, it’s time for it to regain its flagship role.
2. The Model S drivetrain just got updated, and some may think this is a clear message from the company that no other major updates are imminent; I actually think the drivetrain update was i) easier/quicker to implement, and ii) was meant to bring on some of the fence-sitters. However, I think a majority of customers looking for their next car is simply not aware of that upgrade because it’s just not something “visible” and dramatic enough. It may simply be too difficult to simultaneously do an exterior / interior update AND a drivetrain update.
3. Yesterday Motortrend did an interview with Elon Musk. Because it was his birthday. And that’s supposed to make sense. And Franz was there because… he’s Elon’s buddy, right? And the Model S 2011 prototype was brought out because… they needed one extra red car in the background for the photo shoot. Not because they wanted to show the design progression.
4. Tomorrow is the first day of Q3. If Tesla is to announce an update, early in a new quarter is the best time to do it, and they have a history of introducing updates or price changes early in the quarter.
5. If memory serves, the Raven was promoted via a Motortrend piece.

I have no idea if the redesign will involve an interior + exterior remake, or just one of those… if there’s an exterior redesign, I expect a modified battery pack as well.

There’s a good chance I'm completely wrong about this. But then again, I might be right!

Too early, 4th qtr. maybe...