Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gene]

I'm up in SF Bay Area, just passing through. It is insane the density of Tesla's up here! Every direction I look, I see several. It's crazy, feels like 1 out of every 10 cars (though I am sure it is less).

Driving up the fwy a few miles south of the Fremont Tesla factory I have seen a number of industrial buildings with "Tesla" written on the sign. Just 2 years ago I had not seen this expansion at all.

Heading north along the 101 from Santa Barbara to Fremont I saw many transport trucks full of Tesla heading south. It must be the mad rush to Los Angeles.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The admin of one of the Benelux (closed) FB groups caught a spectacular crash on his Model 3 dashcam today in Germany. I expect the footage to be on a certain EV enthusiast site tomorrow. Apparently dashcams are illegal in Germany, but the German police was happy to get the footage.
Sooner or later the general public will realise the value of this dascam feature, and as far as I know, only Tesla has this built in by default. Just like Sentry mode catching thiefs and vandals, it raises awareness about Tesla.

From May 2018:
Dashcam footage gets top German court approval for car crash cases - Reuters

Tesla's approach seems to meet the Federal Court of Justice's example of acceptable: continuous recording, but only permanently saving limited periods in response to user request, or a special detected event.

 

[wipster]

OT

Not sure where to put this but since it’s the weekend:

Tesla, other EVs required to have 'traditional engine' sound to meet new EU rule

Note that is only when the car is reversing or going forward below 12 mph/19 kph.

Can a Tesla make farting noises instead? That's kinda like internal combustion...

 

[tinm]

Ironically, Motor Trend seems to be one of the best at Tesla coverage. I think that gets to a point in the 4000+ article I published yesterday — Motor Trend writes about what it knows, it knows cars, and it thus knows Teslas rock; major media outlets don't have journalists or editors who seem to understand Tesla, why it's disruptive, what that disruption means, and what's important to focus on.

Many journalists covering Tesla are covering it as a business, viewing it rightly or wrongly as part of the auto industry and looking at what they perceive, rightly or wrongly, are Tesla’s strengths, weakness, opportunities, and risks. This is different than covering Tesla cars because they know cars. One could argue these journalists look at Tesla thru the same lenses they looked at Ford, GM, and other fossil automakers, and they miss Tesla’s disruption or treat it as abnormal automaker business behavior that’s gonna end badly.

One might argue they’re hungry for reports that Tesla is finally stable with predictable quarterly profits, you know, like normal automakers, but again, they would miss how
determined Tesla is to reinvest their income in relentless innovation and growth, and stay unpredictable in these journalists’ eyes.

I suspect this begins to describe Tesla’s situation at least with some reporters.

 

[Beltsbear]

Beijing’s move to keep tax break on purchases of new-energy vehicles to support troubled auto sector, help biggest players

Ev tax credits will continue. Should be good for Tesla once GF3 is running.

 

[carterm2]

I'm up in SF Bay Area, just passing through. It is insane the density of Tesla's up here! Every direction I look, I see several. It's crazy, feels like 1 out of every 10 cars (though I am sure it is less).

Driving up the fwy a few miles south of the Fremont Tesla factory I have seen a number of industrial buildings with "Tesla" written on the sign. Just 2 years ago I had not seen this expansion at all.

Heading north along the 101 from Santa Barbara to Fremont I saw many transport trucks full of Tesla heading south. It must be the mad rush to Los Angeles.

Yes, We also see groups of S3X here... I often see S3X on the road, sometimes I am part of the trio too. Once I saw a S3X group twice in one trip. No kidding!

 

[ZachShahan]

The reporters are generally separated from advertisers as far as the newspaper is concerned, but the companies like auto manufacturers and oil companies make it a point to build relationships with reporters with preferred sources. They're able to because 1) they have a profit motive for doing so, 2) they have a budget to fund that effort.

When reporters become familiar with company experts or representatives, they're exposed more often to their point of view. Usually, the views of competing companies cancel each other out, but that is not the case for Tesla.

All the experts presented by nearly every oil company, automotive manufacturer, and dealership groups say the same thing - that Tesla is bad. When every expert says the same thing, it's hard to deny their collective influence.

I recently built a small website about a niche technology that has almost no viewers. Not long after, I was contacted by one of larger companies in the industry that wanted to update me on their products. So if someone like me, Mr. Nobody, gets contacted, what would their PR coordinators do to maintain relationships with reporters in major news organizations?

Just curious, have companies contacted you based on the articles you wrote?

Ha, yes, we've been contacted by countless companies. But we don't blindly believe a competitor who is complaining about a market leader. In fact, I'd say the reaction is quite the opposite. If they are complaining about a competitor, the competitor must be on to something.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Analysts : Sure, Tesla might have record deliveries, but they might not make a profit

As long as they have positive cash flow, I don't give a flying fork if they have a profit or not. Growth and investment is more important than profit right now.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter final prediction for deliveries this Q is 91,328 (73,795 M3s; 17,533 S&X).

 

[Papafox]

Beijing’s move to keep tax break on purchases of new-energy vehicles to support troubled auto sector, help biggest players

Ev tax credits will continue. Should be good for Tesla once GF3 is running.

The news today shows lots of positives for Tesla in China.

First, the tax break for EVs and plug-in hybrids in China being extended through the end of 2020 will help generate lots of additional sales of Model 3 in China during 2020.

Second, the cease-fire on additional tariffs between the U.S. and China suggests that Tesla will not be burdened with additional tariffs on Model 3s imported to China for the foreseeable future. With zero percent interest loans available, we may see Model 3 sales continue at a somewhat decent rate for some time.

The kicker is that a Chinese buyer has a bit more incentive to wait for a GF3-built Tesla over a U.S. built M3 now that the tax breaks for certain Chinese-built EVs is being extended. I'll be curious to see what happens.

 

[powertoold]

The kicker is that a Chinese buyer has a bit more incentive to wait for a GF3-built Tesla over a U.S. built M3 now that the tax breaks for certain Chinese-built EVs is being extended. I'll be curious to see what happens.

Kinda sucks for Tesla, as they likely priced the gf3 tm3 with the anticipation that the tax break will expire.

 

[Pras]

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter final prediction for deliveries this Q is 91,328 (73,795 M3s; 17,533 S&X).

Well, he came a long way from 72k, which stayed low even after that email from Elon. Very interested to know what changed for him. Because for me the writing was always there even mid quarter, as the order rates where much higher. At that time I argued that mid quarter the forecast should be made on order rate and not delivery rate.

Anyway good that the estimates are now converging. We will know the result soon.

As an FYI this was my estimate. As many suggested at the time, I was low on Canada and that may indeed be the case.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Prediction: as crappy as the 1st half of year has been for TSLA, it will be oppositely good the 2nd half of the year. But it won't stop there with battery supply growing steadily with line retrofits at GF1 from the current 27GW to 35GW at year's end, they'll continue ramping up production of cars and storage to steadily eek out new QoQ records. Then significant new capacity comes online with GF3 at year's end to continue the trend for a few quarters, then we're at the inception of Y production and the trend in topline growth continues steadily thereafter. All against a backdrop of ICE carmaker declines & the increasingly obvious flaccid EV competition...

 

[StealthP3D]

OT

Not sure where to put this but since it’s the weekend:

Tesla, other EVs required to have 'traditional engine' sound to meet new EU rule

Note that is only when the car is reversing or going forward below 12 mph/19 kph.

It's a real slap in the face to the growing EV market that this regulation is not based upon a minimum acceptable noise signature but is instead directed only at EV's. In a world full of standards, whether they be noise, emissions or safety, it's unconscionable that this regulation would not be based on any dB/speed standard or measurement (beyond that it's an EV). Because many gasoline luxury cars are equally quiet at pedestrian speeds when the ICE is simply idling and the car is approaching the pedestrian with the exhaust directed rearwards.

 

[EVNow]

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter final prediction for deliveries this Q is 91,328 (73,795 M3s; 17,533 S&X).

But Troy has a weird estimate for next 4 quarters Model 3 estimate - 271,000 or 68k per quarter. So, even with Chinese GF coming online, average will be less than Q2

So, I guess he thinks there is a demand issue and the sales will go down in Q3 to 64k, stay around that in Q4 and in Q1, Q2 '20, GF3 will only contribute some 8k more per quarter.

 

[StealthP3D]

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter final prediction for deliveries this Q is 91,328 (73,795 M3s; 17,533 S&X).

My official estimate is 92,345.6 (and that is probably low). My real estimate was 92,500 but I liked 92,345.6 better. More surprising will be profitability when Q2 financials are released. I know I'm going out on a limb here but I think Tesla is quietly performing on numerous fronts and ready to surprise all the naysayers.

Forward-looking statements will have appropriate restraint but they will paint an accurate picture that is so compelling the shorts will be forced to continue the covering they began when delivery numbers were released. The bears will lose what little credibility they have remaining and new money will flood in before it's too late. Shares will over-react to the upside.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Prediction: as crappy as the 1st half of year has been for TSLA, it will be oppositely good the 2nd half of the year. But it won't stop there with battery supply growing steadily with line retrofits at GF1 from the current 27GW to 35GW at year's end, they'll continue ramping up production of cars and storage to steadily eek out new QoQ records. Then significant new capacity comes online with GF3 at year's end to continue the trend for a few quarters, then we're at the inception of Y production and the trend in topline growth continues steadily thereafter. All against a backdrop of ICE carmaker declines & the increasingly obvious flaccid EV competition...

Oh yeah, we should also be seeing the slumbering giant of TEnergy stirring to life over this same period with the new pricing structure of solar & ongoing demand growth for battery storage. Renewables just surpassed coal in terms of the amount of energy contributed to the U.S. grid for the first time over the span of a month & there ain't no turning back
As Clean Energy Surpasses Coal, U.S. Energy Transition Locks Into Place

 

[StealthP3D]

But Troy has a weird estimate for next 4 quarters - 271,000 or 68k per quarter. So, even with Chinese GF coming online, average will be less than Q2

As well as things are progressing at Gigafactory 3, I don't see it adding substantial volume to production numbers this year. The key will be to iron out the kinks, dial in the QC and hit 2020 running strong. The potential of G3 alone will add compelling value to Tesla shares in 2019 without producing significant volume until early next year.

 

[Zaxxon]

As well as things are progressing at Gigafactory 3, I don't see it adding substantial volume to production numbers this year. The key will be to iron out the kinks, dial in the QC and hit 2020 running strong. The potential of G3 alone will add compelling value to Tesla shares in 2019 without producing significant volume until early next year.

This. If you're modeling significant production from GF3 at any point in 2019... don't.

 

[Electroman]

My prediction for GF3. Pre-production trial runs late Q4/early Q1. Actual production for customer cars Feb/Mar 2020.

Maybe around 500 cars end of Q1 and slow ramp to mass production in Q2 and Q3 reaching full production capacity end of Q4 2020.

And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.