Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.

I think Tesla ordered tooling earlier than that, so the timeline started more than 13 months ago.

 

[sundaymorning]

Well, he came a long way from 72k, which stayed low even after that email from Elon. Very interested to know what changed for him. Because for me the writing was always there even mid quarter, as the order rates where much higher. At that time I argued that mid quarter the forecast should be made on order rate and not delivery rate.

Anyway good that the estimates are now converging. We will know the result soon.

As an FYI this was my estimate. As many suggested at the time, I was low on Canada and that may indeed be the case.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Back then Bloomberg estimate would stay low until the very last day, and bam, a huge jump of 10-20k plus added.

 

[EVNow]

As well as things are progressing at Gigafactory 3, I don't see it adding substantial volume to production numbers this year. The key will be to iron out the kinks, dial in the QC and hit 2020 running strong. The potential of G3 alone will add compelling value to Tesla shares in 2019 without producing significant volume until early next year.

That is not what the prediction about. It's next 4 quarters - so Q3, Q4, Q1 20 and Q2 20.

 

[StealthP3D]

That is not what the prediction about. It's next 4 quarters - so Q3, Q4, Q1 20 and Q2 20.

Aha. I missed that.

 

[CalX]

Can someone with skill create a video montage with single quote snippets of CNBC or other analysts giving their production estimates and doom and gloom scenarios for Q2 while displaying the stock price and finally the actual production numbers in a smaller window, in time sequence if you know what I mean? I know it sounds like a lot of work but I bet it could go viral.

 

[Freder Reeve]

snippets of CNBC giving their production estimates and doom and gloom scenarios for Q2

Wait Tesla didn't get scrapped already?

... how could they deliver cars from the junkyard?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shortsville Times: "Record Summer Heat Wave Hits Europe"

 

[RobStark]

I believe the author is simply confused about what Tesla’s goal is, rather than trying to move the goalposts. He seems to analyse the company from the perspective of an ordinary automaker with the unique goal of maximising profits, and he seems convinced that Tesla should position itself as a high-margin, luxury car maker, an alternative BMW. Because he seems to think Tesla will not increase production capacity much from where they are now.

Of course, Tesla is all about growing the EV market share and increasing awareness, even at the expense of little or no profit for the foreseeable future, and of course they plan to quadruple their production capacity in the next 4-5 years.

I will give Matt DeBord the benefit of the doubt and assume he is just clueless, on this particular occasion.

BMW delivers ~2.5M cars per year.

Tesla needs to significantly increase production to match current BMW production.

 

[FrankSG]

Your essay is very appreciated by this community member. I sent it to relatives vulnerable to media disinformation. Terrific job, Frank.

Ideas for future additions/updates:

1) The potential of a Tesla App Store.

2) Synergy with SpaceX engineering and services (Starlink satellite internet).

SpaceX helps Tesla with materials engineering
(SpaceX and Tesla cooperate on advanced materials – NextBigFuture.com)
and maybe design (such as cold-gas thrusters in the next Roadster).
Musk: Roadster to go 0-60 in 2.1 seconds "before thruster option"

11-minute video about potential App Store and Starlink:

I really like this forum, but I wish there were more posts like this. Thank you very much for the effort you put into this.

Thanks guys!

I don't plan to post anything quite as large as the Thesis again in the near future, but I do want to write more about Tesla and I have a few ideas floating around, so keep an eye out for that.

Thanks for the suggestions, Peter. I'll keep those in mind.

 

[mariaaa]

Nasdaq Futures + 1.70%...

bad for Tesla I guess... as when Nasdaq goes up Tesla goes down

 

[CorneliusXX]

What’s with all the Sunday Tesla articles telling us that delivery numbers are unimportant for reasons ranging from profit matters to Tesla should be more like BMW? It’s like they want everyone to ignore the numbers Tesla is about to post. I have no idea why they’d want that. Odd journalism

It doesn't matter whether Tesla delivers 90,000 cars or 900,000 in the 2nd quarter — what's more important is whether Tesla goes mass-market or stays luxury

“Before you conclude that I'm about to insist that BMW is in trouble, don't. BMW isn't in trouble. But BMW serves as a useful guide to what kind of car maker Tesla should be.” Lol

No demand/missed deliveries was a great story for the shorts while it could be spun into the bankruptcy narrative. My guess is that these articles are seeing less clicks now that the stock price has stabilised and positive delivery comments have been coming from the company. Now a new way is needed to generate those precious precious clicks.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Is there a better place to share?

LOVE THE 2nd PIC, priceless, could do an ad just with it.

Imgur

Tagline. Tesla, see the world, make it better.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nasdaq 100 Futures - Sep 19
Real-time CFD
7,826.00 +132.25 +1.72%
03:26:38 EDT

Market Summary > Tesla Inc
FRA: TL0
201.40 EUR +5.52 (2.82%) <== 228.04 United States Dollars
Jul. 1, 9:18 a.m. GMT+2

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes
$228.55 +5.09 2.27%
*Real-Time - data as of 7/1/2019 4:10 EDT​

 

[Tslynk67]

So, with OI's trade-war cease-fire giving a potential good macro day, we just need a record for deliveries to potentially create a perfect storm... Let's hope Tesla can get the delivery report out sooner rather than later..

 

[Tslynk67]

Pre-market isn't to be trusted, but today I think it will be hard for the bears to manipulate it down - maybe we'll get a BI or NYT hit-piece a couple of hours before the opening bell, or perhaps a GS, MS or UBS downgrade - haven't had one for a few days, it's due!

Seriously though, can see it flying today... Not an advice.

 

[Fact Checking]

My prediction for GF3. Pre-production trial runs late Q4/early Q1. Actual production for customer cars Feb/Mar 2020.

Maybe around 500 cars end of Q1 and slow ramp to mass production in Q2 and Q3 reaching full production capacity end of Q4 2020.

And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.

What kind of problems do you expect at GF3, which would delay volume production by 6 months?

Volume Model 3 production at Fremont was delayed ~9-12 months, because:

• The Model 3 battery pack assembly lines were mis-designed by a contractor and Tesla noticed this way too late due to missing oversight - it took 12 months for GF1 to reach 5k/week output.
• The new automated parts conveyance system at Fremont didn't work - they had to rip it out and replace it with manual work.
• The modified main assembly line didn't reach 5k/week output, they had to create the "Sprung Tent": ironically they also reused the previously removed machines of the automated parts conveyance system, plus manual labor, so the tent was near zero capex.
• They struggled with the paint shop achieving enough throughput and good enough paint quality - which they solved by color batching, color option removal, paint option price increases and (I assume) software optimizations.

And I suspect there were about a dozen other major and hundreds of smaller optimizations done as well.

So yes, the initial Model 3 ramp-up was a cluster-sugar of Dreadnought hubris, lack of organization of a hyper-growth company and a doomed effort to deliver a baby in half the time by throwing money at the problem.

I.e. they rushed the Model 3 due to the surprise 500,000 reservations in 2016, and managed to get it at the same time had they not rushed it, at twice the capex and half the 10k/week target output...

GF3 on the other hand will be primarily using what Fremont already does today:

• Floor space is comparable to Fremont, while target output is only 3k/week. This suggests initial reliance on manual labor, instead of excessive automation.
• GF3 will only make the SR+, which is a single variant. This simplifies ramp-up.
• It's a new factory, with none of the historic legacies and layout quirks of the Fremont factory.
• GF3 will initially get SR+ packs from GF1, which reportedly is already above 7k/week capacity and had to slow production to match Fremont capacity. It seems entirely reasonable that they'll have 1k/week excess output at GF1 by the end of the year, to serve GF3.

So unless GF3 is doing some risky new experiment that Tesla never mentioned before, to me it feels like a "safe" clone of Fremont, using pretty much the same machines with the similar output and quality characteristics as Fremont.

So the only major ramp-up S-curve constraint would be the training of employees - which I don't expect to be a problem:

• Tesla hiring centers were overrun with candidates every time they opened new positions in China,
• China has a huge automotive sector that makes over 20 million passenger cars per year (U.S. production: 16 million cars),
• mainland China has over a dozen high-tech factories from the big German and Japanese premium brands as well.

Finding experienced automotive workers shouldn't be a problem.

While the exact timing of installation of tooling and the S-curve of ramp-up is always uncertain for such a complex factory, I don't see big unknowns, and traditional OEMs and their tooling vendors have demonstrated that they can clone factories with high reliability.

TLDR: I don't expect GF3 to suffer the kind of delays GF1 and Fremont experienced with the Model 3, I wouldn't be surprised to see 500-1,000 units per week output from GF3 by the end of this year.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Dang, premarket was up $6 when I just checked it. Any recent things to indicate why?

 

[schonelucht]

What kind of problems do you expect at GF3, which would delay volume production by 6 months?

Good summary of the known unknowns but beware of the unkown unkowns. Supply chains are tricky enough.

GF3 will initially get SR+ packs from GF1, which reportedly is already above 7k/week capacity and had to slow production to match Fremont capacity. It seems entirely reasonable that they'll have 1k/week excess output at GF1 by the end of the year, to serve GF3.

Panasonic is still not up to specification for cell output, or at least, that is the latest official explanation we got. While pack assembly may not be a bottleneck anymore, producing GF3-bound packs may put constraints on long range pack and/or Tesla Energy availability. Cell production + shipping for production start late this year means cells volume increases need to be in place by September.

 

[Tslynk67]

Dang, premarket was up $6 when I just checked it. Any recent things to indicate why?

Trade-war cease-fire - Nasdaq futures and pre-market are way up across the board.

 

[T@oo]

It's nice to see 230 again. On the way up.