Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

It's not a huge effect right now, but the closure of 3% of gas stations every year is an unstoppable force with only one possible outcome in 5-10 years.

Sometime in that time frame refilling gas will start to be increasingly associated with a negative social stigma of poverty and "I don't care about clean, healthy air" indifference.

When electric cars are relied upon for 70-90% of all miles traveled, I'm sure gas vehicles will still make up over 50% of all registered vehicles but they will be spending more and more time in garages, used for Sunday drives or occasional towing/hauling. Gas stations will still need to exist at reasonable intervals or else entire routes will become off-limits to gas vehicles or require very careful planning to avoid range anxiety. Also, fueling stations will need to exist all over to service the remaining local usage of gas vehicles in rural areas. Since the volume of fuel sales at the remaining fuel stations will continue to decline, it's only natural that profit margins will need to increase (higher fuel markups). Refineries will also have higher mark-ups as gasoline becomes more and more of a specialty product. Even if oil prices remain low due to lack of demand and excess production, gasoline at the retail level will cost a lot more than the historical relationship between the price of oil and gas would indicate.

People who cling to gas vehicles during this period will flip from being the poverty-stricken to the relatively well off who can afford the higher cost and don't care about the negative stigma. Any poor people still driving fossil cars during this period will drive on a strictly "as necessary" basis because it will be so much more expensive than it is now.

 

[Christine69420]

This VW Ford deal is what I hoped to see from Tesla.
Common platform for many body types, standardized batteries.

No, thanks! I prefer a car built by a visionary hitech frontrunner company like Tesla. Common platforms designed by a committee making the least common multiple would be my nightmare car future.

Hydrogen makes sense for Buses, Semis, heavy equipment.

Hydrogen does not make sense at all! In Norway we have electric heating and cooking. And we read shocking stories from abroad where peoples homes explode after gas leaks. Never happens here.

And then mix a gas much more volatile and powerful than propane/natural gas with heavy equipment doing work in all kinds of chaotic/wet/rusty/accident prone environments. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Buckminster]

The Maxwell Technologies acquistion will have an effect on GAAP income. Under GAAP reporting practices, in the year of an acquistion the purchasing company can claim the entire yearly revenue of the acquired company, but not their expenses.

Yeah, I know, it messed up accounting. That's how Microsoft got big'n'rich back in the 1990s, but that's GAAP for you. The same stunt was pulled with the Daimler/Chyrsler merger, which was followed by a quickie 'Reno Divorce' the following year. It's a shot of crak for the GAAP balance sheet.

Maxwell's revenues over the past year were about $90M. That won't get TSLA on the S&P 500 on its own, but it'll help.

Cheers!

ZEV and now Maxwell - don't get my S&P500 hopes up - the memories are too raw!

If buying businesses is the way ahead, Elon needs to get on and buy the Insurance company.

I vote to buy Morgan Stanley. Take their revenues for GAAP and then delete them. Have Jonas show shareholders around GF1....

"On your left, you will see all the things I told you wouldn't come to pass."

 

[SOULPEDL]

Story today on BMW and CEO replacement, had to share this comment:

"but with a new captain at the helm, perhaps BMW can start catching up to the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker as well."
​

BMW’s next CEO could revive an electric car initiative amid assault from EVs like Tesla
The options don't sound very promising, seems BMW is hurting.

This comment says a lot about the mindset out there (same article). Frohlich is one of them in line for the CEO open spot:

"Fröhlich’s more recent comments showed an even more dismissive stance on electric cars. In a round table interview in Munich, the BMW executive argued that “there is no customer requests for BEVs.” Doubling down, he added that “If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million cars, but Europeans won’t buy these things. Customers in Europe do not buy EVs. We pressed these cars into the market, and they’re not wanted. We can deliver an electrified vehicle to each person, but they will not buy them.”
​

It all depends what you build. We all know everyone is so far behind, but Tesla has made it even more difficult for others to enter the market. This kinda goes against the mission unless the path forward is that traditional automotive dies and only new and innovative survive. Then I read articles like this and realize, nope, they still don't get it.

So, can ICE do BEV? I say no, conflict of interest, and doomed.

 

[jerry33]

Hydrogen makes sense for Buses, Semis, heavy equipment.
China's central planning could enable a big infrastructure push.

China Switches Over to Hydrogen Fuel Cells, and Toyota Delivers the Tech

The only time hydrogen will make sense is when there are fusion reactors. So far that's just on the sun. Toyota already stopped selling hydrogen cars to the U.S. because of a filling station explosion. Hydrogen for transport will go the way of steam for personal transport and for the same reason--it's just too dangerous for the average person to deal with. Maintenance has to be absolutely perfect, the way steam railroad engine maintenance was.

 

[MP3Mike]

Gas stations will still need to exist at reasonable intervals or else entire routes will become off-limits to gas vehicles or require very careful planning to avoid range anxiety.

The main difference is that it is easy to carry extra gas with you or even fit a larger, or extra, tank on a had car.

 

[jerry33]

The main difference is that it is easy to carry extra gas with you or even fit a larger, or extra, tank on a had car.

But not particularly safe (to carry extra gas with you) or inexpensive (to add an additional gas tank). It's not even cheap when the vehicle is designed to possibly have a second gas tank.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Story today on BMW and CEO replacement, had to share this comment:

"but with a new captain at the helm, perhaps BMW can start catching up to the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker as well."
​

BMW’s next CEO could revive an electric car initiative amid assault from EVs like Tesla
The options don't sound very promising, seems BMW is hurting.

This comment says a lot about the mindset out there (same article). Frohlich is one of them in line for the CEO open spot:

"Fröhlich’s more recent comments showed an even more dismissive stance on electric cars. In a round table interview in Munich, the BMW executive argued that “there is no customer requests for BEVs.” Doubling down, he added that “If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million cars, but Europeans won’t buy these things. Customers in Europe do not buy EVs. We pressed these cars into the market, and they’re not wanted. We can deliver an electrified vehicle to each person, but they will not buy them.”
​

It all depends what you build. We all know everyone is so far behind, but Tesla has made it even more difficult for others to enter the market. This kinda goes against the mission unless the path forward is that traditional automotive dies and only new and innovative survive. Then I read articles like this and realize, nope, they still don't get it.

So, can ICE do BEV? I say no, conflict of interest, and doomed.

The Trump Tariffs don't help either. Just the threat of them

Story today on BMW and CEO replacement, had to share this comment:

"but with a new captain at the helm, perhaps BMW can start catching up to the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker as well."
​

BMW’s next CEO could revive an electric car initiative amid assault from EVs like Tesla
The options don't sound very promising, seems BMW is hurting.

This comment says a lot about the mindset out there (same article). Frohlich is one of them in line for the CEO open spot:

"Fröhlich’s more recent comments showed an even more dismissive stance on electric cars. In a round table interview in Munich, the BMW executive argued that “there is no customer requests for BEVs.” Doubling down, he added that “If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million cars, but Europeans won’t buy these things. Customers in Europe do not buy EVs. We pressed these cars into the market, and they’re not wanted. We can deliver an electrified vehicle to each person, but they will not buy them.”
​

It all depends what you build. We all know everyone is so far behind, but Tesla has made it even more difficult for others to enter the market. This kinda goes against the mission unless the path forward is that traditional automotive dies and only new and innovative survive. Then I read articles like this and realize, nope, they still don't get it.

So, can ICE do BEV? I say no, conflict of interest, and doomed.

They just can't compete with Tesla because they are to far behind, so why even try. Its very difficult to stop producing an ICE car that is profitable and replace it with an electric car that IS NOT profitable. Try shooting yourself in the foot and see how hard that is to actually pull the trigger.

 

[SO16]

Try shooting yourself in the foot and see how hard that is to actually pull the trigger.

I’d cut off my foot if I knew it was diseased and will eventually kill me.

 

[StealthP3D]

The main difference is that it is easy to carry extra gas with you or even fit a larger, or extra, tank on a had car.

This does nothing for the rising expense of the product. And people don't want to be filling their vehicles with messy gas poured from heavy jerry cans - that's more of an emergency measure, not a 'business as usual' procedure. Even in a post-apocalyptic, Mad Max world, people would prefer to charge an EV from solar panels than carry around gallons of flammable liquids (and the electricity would likely be much more available and cheaper too).

 

[Compton]

I’d cut off my foot if I knew it was diseased and will eventually kill me.

The current executives don't have the incentive to take unusual risks if they estimate that ICE age won't come to an end during their tenure. Most will cash in while they can and let the next poor bastard worry about the extinction event.

 

[Captkerosene]

That is because a lot of Uber/Lyft drivers are part timers. Many of them drive just on weekends etc. People who do this full time know where to hang around to get max customers & higher utilization %.

Ofcourse Semis will have good utilization rate - they just need to load/unload and recharge.

Though in general I prefer that we electrify our trains and use trains for most of goods transportation like rest of the world.

Some semi random thoughts,

I went back and listened to the Shareholder meeting again. Some quotes from EM regarding production of the truck and semi:

- "A lot of this is based on our ability to manufacture a lot of cells and make a lot of battery packs."

- "There's not much point in adding product complexity if we don't have enough batteries ... then it's complexity without gain."

"Adding product complexity" in this context means rolling out new models.

So, my question to the group is, "where are we going to get the extra battery capacity?" EM has already stated that the Y market is bigger than the 3/s/x combined. China will suck up as many cars as we can make for years to come. If, If robotaxi is on track we need every battery we can produce for the next ten years to build out that platform.

New products are to expand our market in case there is not enough demand for the batteries we currently produce. If they announce (and start taking orders for) the truck then I think that means the FSD program is not making good progress. Aren't we already cannibalizing power to make more cars?

Notwithstanding what I just said, I now think they'll go ahead with the semi. Maybe just a lot slower than people think. Reservations have already been taken and a lot of work already completed. I think it's a great product, in a great market, that Elon really wants to serve.

I wouldn't hold your breath for an autonomous semi though. Uber fought the taxi fight against a disorganized and disliked group of companies. The Teamsters might not be as agreeable when it comes to them losing their jobs. Also, a true autonomous semi doesn't need a cab.

The Roadster 2 will just get delayed.

 

[hobbes]

In Norway we have electric heating and cooking. And we read shocking stories from abroad where peoples homes explode after gas leaks. Never happens here.

And I watch shocking videos of Teslas burning. Come on. Let´s not get to the same scientific level as FUDsters. (Hint: look at the probabilities)

 

[hobbes]

I’d cut off my foot if I knew it was diseased and will eventually kill me.

Wow, didn´t know the US health system has come that far... (ducks)

 

[UncaNed]

Tesla should manufacture and sell Superchargers for private installation that the merchant can make a small profit on. Tesla handles the billing and sends most of the payment back to the owner of the Supercharger to cover his electricity and have a small profit. It will create captive shoppers, particularly if the store carries impulse purchase items beyond the typical snacks, candy, beer/soda and tobacco.

Good idea. But it's not like gas pumps would ever be replaced 1-for-1 with chargers of any sort; almost all of the gas station stops are actually going to get replaced with home charging.

In very urban areas where cars currently stay parallel parked, gas pump stops might be better replaced with parking lots with overnight parking with chargers where apartment dwellers can park, charge, and leave their cars

"Urban" Superchargers. Max ~72kW charge rate. Basically like Supercharger V2 with a permanent 50/50 split between A and B pedestals - I expect other than the pedestals themselves, slightly different software/firmware to limit power output to 72kW, and perhaps the wiring (which could be downsized since it would never go to full ~150kW of an uncorked V2 supercharger) they are basically the same as a V2 supercharger buildout. I expect in a few years as they start upgrading V1/V2 superchargers to V3, they'll get recycled into Urban supercharger locations to not "throw away" the hardware.

"Recycle"? Or, I bet more that a few rich folks or businesses would LOVE to buy one for their own use, or business use at a price profitable to Tesla.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

This does nothing for the rising expense of the product. And people don't want to be filling their vehicles with messy gas poured from heavy jerry cans - that's more of an emergency measure, not a 'business as usual' procedure. Even in a post-apocalyptic, Mad Max world, people would prefer to charge an EV from solar panels than carry around gallons of flammable liquids (and the electricity would likely be much more available and cheaper too).

It doesn’t even need to be post apocalyptic Mad Max world. Insurgents love blowing up fuel truck convoys. They tend to avoid targeting solar farms altogether. Just another reason to leapfrog fossil fuels and go straight to renewables in developing countries.

 

[jerry33]

So, my question to the group is, "where are we going to get the extra battery capacity?".

My understanding is that Panasonic is supposed to be upping the production rate and be at full production by the end of the year. China will start to need a large quantity of cells starting next year--and there are supposed to be Chinese suppliers. If local supply plays out, China won't enter into the cell demand equation. Also the Maxwell cells are rumored to be not that far off. No one knows exactly how far off, but the hints indicate that Tesla has been working on this for at least a year prior to the acquisition, so they could be as close a a few months. No doubt the equipment was not ordered until the acquisition was finalized. And because it's usually at least a year between the reveal and production, there's time to put battery supply in place.

 

[Stars aligned]

ZEV and now Maxwell - don't get my S&P500 hopes up - the memories are too raw!

If buying businesses is the way ahead, Elon needs to get on and buy the Insurance company.

I vote to buy Morgan Stanley. Take their revenues for GAAP and then delete them. Have Jonas show shareholders around GF1....

"On your left, you will see all the things I told you wouldn't come to pass."

Calm down, it's just a side effect, a goodie. Not a scheme.

Maxwell acquisition was a stroke of a genius, but there was a long time of evaluation before.

 

[jerry33]

It doesn’t even need to be post apocalyptic Mad Max world. Insurgents love blowing up fuel truck convoys. They tend to avoid targeting solar farms altogether.

Well, duh. There's nothing that will blow up in a solar farm, you have to bring your own combustibles. About the only thing that can be easily done is to cut the transmission lines, which can be quickly repaired, so a lot of effort and risk for only a small gain.

 

[mrmage]

Some semi random thoughts,

I went back and listened to the Shareholder meeting again. Some quotes from EM regarding production of the truck and semi:

- "A lot of this is based on our ability to manufacture a lot of cells and make a lot of battery packs."

- "There's not much point in adding product complexity if we don't have enough batteries ... then it's complexity without gain."

"Adding product complexity" in this context means rolling out new models.

So, my question to the group is, "where are we going to get the extra battery capacity?" EM has already stated that the Y market is bigger than the 3/s/x combined. China will suck up as many cars as we can make for years to come. If, If robotaxi is on track we need every battery we can produce for the next ten years to build out that platform.

New products are to expand our market in case there is not enough demand for the batteries we currently produce. If they announce (and start taking orders for) the truck then I think that means the FSD program is not making good progress. Aren't we already cannibalizing power to make more cars?

Notwithstanding what I just said, I now think they'll go ahead with the semi. Maybe just a lot slower than people think. Reservations have already been taken and a lot of work already completed. I think it's a great product, in a great market, that Elon really wants to serve.

I wouldn't hold your breath for an autonomous semi though. Uber fought the taxi fight against a disorganized and disliked group of companies. The Teamsters might not be as agreeable when it comes to them losing their jobs. Also, a true autonomous semi doesn't need a cab.

The Roadster 2 will just get delayed.

I wouldn't hold my breath on any ride sharing autonomy either.

Wrt to batteries, others have noted that Tesla seemed excited about Maxwell. EM also set aside an investor battery day. And there's the comments.

I have faith that Tesla management is more than a little competent, so I'm assuming Tesla has a path to produce more battery GWHs in conjunction with their Maxwell acquisition.