The problem isn't that they "don't get it." Frohlich is dissing what BMW is unable to manufacture anytime soon at a cost supported by market prices. And they want to benefit from existing capital investment and utilize their existing expertise as long as they can. Like others they seek to manage the message and slow down change for the benefit of their own economic interests. I would not assume they don't understand the difficult challenge they face.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, if insurgents are blowing up fuel truck convoys in your neighborhood, that's POST- apocalyse, Max.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Unless the equipment is from Grohmann, and the manufacturing site is Lathrop. Then there could be another stealth Tesla reveil at "Battery and Powertrain Investory Day".
Not saying there will be. Jus' sayin' is all.
Cheers!
I dunno, I think there’s an element here of “they don’t get it” also. Just like Blackberry thought they could take back their market by slapping a touchscreen on a Blackberry phone, legacy manufacturers seem to think they can take the EV market by slapping a battery on one of their ICE cars. They don’t get all the other things that set Tesla’s apart. An EV powertrain is necessary but not sufficient.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I rated that comment 'Helpful' because the smoke stops, reverses, and goes back inside the sandrail. Hey, we can dream, right?oh...yah... LOL
Cheers!
Captkerosene
Member
I saw the same thing in the airline industry. Deregulation and Southwest killed everybody. Deregulation is the BEV and Tesla is Southwest Airlines. They weren't stupid, there was just no way to make it work. It's going to be a bloodbath.
Judging from the like, it looks like have previously made a convincing case on here why Tesla will fail spectacularly to launch any sort of robo-taxi service in the 2020-21 time frame. I have obviously missed it, so can you point me to the relevant posts please, many thanks
I'm very interested to know why Elon Musk, Andrej Karparthy and Stuart Bowers are dead wrong - or even lying. Stuart Bowers specifically told Sasha Keeney at Autonomy Day that while the remaining features to be developed for FSD are more complicated than earlier features (and therefore a more difficult AI problem), they had the existing software stack to leverage off, and the development path was reasonably predictable. You can hear this in her words at 19:30 (Sasha and ARK Invest are reasonably confident in the 2021 time frame)
Antares Nebula
Active Member
The future car will have three major components:
1) EV Powertrain
2) Autonomous / Semi-Autonomous Capability
3) A robust and sophisticated Smart Car / carOS platform (comparable to a desktop or smartphone OS).
Any OEM that does not have all three will not last. This applies to legacy OEMs and current newcomers alike, including, for example, Rivian.
There are many so called Tesla competitors that only focus on one or two of these aspects, like the EV Powertrain or Autonomy. They will be a flash in the pan that will initially impress but eventually fade away.
Tesla has all three in spades. Waymo probably has (2) and (3) covered, eventually. The legacy makers probably can do (1) and maybe (2), but they're going to have trouble with (3). So a legacy + Waymo partnership makes sense, similar to Samsung + Android. Will be interesting to see what Apple does, if anything.
Of course (2) is hard, but many of the players are underestimating (3). Good platform level software, like MacOS, Windows, Android, iOS, or TeslaOS, is not easy. Takes years and lots of manpower. We have yet to see a robust carOS comparable to any of the above. Tesla is in the lead, but still in its infancy. If Mercedes, Ford, or GM think they can whip up a carOS in a few years with a few software hires, they best think again.
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At the end of this year the Tesla fleet will have 1.4 billion AP2 miles under its belt, and will be adding 3.7 million AP2 miles per day.
At the end of 2020 they will have 3.25 Billion AP2 miles, and will be adding 6.24 million AP2 miles per day. At the end of 2021 these numbers are 4.5 billion miles and 6.5 million miles per day - Lex has the rate of change of growth slowing after 2020
I've been doing a deep dive into Lex's csv files
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Dovetailing on my above comment, in regards to point (3), the carOS:
It is part of the larger theme of "software eating the world".* For this reason alone, Tesla, Waymo/Google, and Apple may end up dominating the future automobile industry, with everybody else playing second fiddle. Disruption at its finest! (Maybe.)
*Why Software Is Eating the World
Software is still eating the world – TechCrunch
It is part of the larger theme of "software eating the world".* For this reason alone, Tesla, Waymo/Google, and Apple may end up dominating the future automobile industry, with everybody else playing second fiddle. Disruption at its finest! (Maybe.)
*Why Software Is Eating the World
Software is still eating the world – TechCrunch
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I've been doing a really deep dive into the RethinkX May 2017 Transportation report by James Arbib and Tony Seba and their think tank. I was triggered to do this after reading FrankSG's thesis My Tesla Investment Thesis: Why Tesla is the most exciting thing going on in the world today
Get the Report — RethinkX
These folk have done some pretty heavy research, and the relevant bits seem to mostly line up with Tasha's ARK Invest report from October 2017.
Has this ever been discussed on TMC, and if so can someone please point me to the discussion? Many thanks
Get the Report — RethinkX
These folk have done some pretty heavy research, and the relevant bits seem to mostly line up with Tasha's ARK Invest report from October 2017.
Has this ever been discussed on TMC, and if so can someone please point me to the discussion? Many thanks
It's exciting, but Im starting to wonder what % of those 1 million cars owners will actually turn on taxi mode?
You are underestimating 2 and way overestimating 3. Tesla absolutely is ahead on 3 but a carOS is not that hard for a multi-million dollar company. So long as an independent group is allowed to start using Linux and is not hampered by existing company work it is possible. Tesla built off of open source code and others could too. Now so far no ICE maker has shown a touchscreen that seems like it was based on tech newer then 2010, but I am sure Rivian will change that.
Read Get the Report — RethinkX and ponder what % of those 1 million car owners will choose to leave their car "rotting in the garage" rather than out there earning $30k per year - and returning all cleaned and shiny at the end of each day.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Oh, I don't doubt that autonomy is more difficult. I'm not saying otherwise. But, at the same time, I don't think I'm overestimating the difficulty of a carOS. Sure, a simple skeletal OS can be whipped up easy, and maybe a good starting point. But just ask yourself how much manpower is required to develop and maintain Windows, MacOS, iOS, or Android. That's what I'm talking about.
Any successful future carOS will need to be similarly sophisticated. It should, in addition to managing the various functions of the vehicle, support an app ecosystem, stream various media formats, and (possibly) support ads, and very likely operate across multiple screens (for multiple riders: driver or passengers).
Tesla is in the lead -- it will be years before we see anything comparable from anyone else -- but it's still in its infancy compared to smartphone OSs. Software is not easy. Just ask Nio:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
"Ms Li, head of software in China, was “squeezed out of Nio because the software has been so bad,” according to one person familiar with the matter. The company denied this and insisted she left for “personal reasons”. A Nio car was stranded on a Chinese highway in January after the driver triggered a software update. Software is one of Nio’s weakest points and a major source of customer complaints, according to a person briefed on the company’s operations. Software is crucial to the operation of electric vehicles, and the departure of Ms Li is “a big deal”, said Tu Le of consultancy Sino Auto Insights. "
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Judging from the like, it looks like have previously made a convincing case on here why Tesla will fail spectacularly to launch any sort of robo-taxi service in the 2020-21 time frame. I have obviously missed it, so can you point me to the relevant posts please, many thanks
I'm very interested to know why Elon Musk, Andrej Karparthy and Stuart Bowers are dead wrong - or even lying. Stuart Bowers specifically told Sasha Keeney at Autonomy Day that while the remaining features to be developed for FSD are more complicated than earlier features (and therefore a more difficult AI problem), they had the existing software stack to leverage off, and the development path was reasonably predictable. You can hear this in her words at 19:30 (Sasha and ARK Invest are reasonably confident in the 2021 time frame)
I don't know what Nerden would say but If you listen to what Elon said during the shareholder event, Elon's confidence comes from an exponential growth model that historically he has been pretty bad at predicting (ie. 10k model 3 production by end of 2018). He also said if FSD software were to be released today, it will be "really really bad". So it seems like there's not some magical behind the scene FSD software that is light years ahead of EAP and the demo displayed during the autonomy investor day is more or less a pre-built route (aka cannot be reproduced anywhere else with such precision). Lastly he said his car is equipped with FSD dev with the FSD computer. He has to make a few interventions on the route he takes to work (which has been trained to death and most likely gets a software update daily to test progress).
That being said, EAP improved a lot the past 8 months, and the most recent update is pretty solid. And whatever it is right now..everyone is just speculating. It's always good to be on the side that's more conservative than liberal. Elon almost never meets his liberal guidance..it's almost not meant to be met.
"Do consumers have limited time left to buy a Tesla car, since prices would have to go up severalfold to balance supply & demand once you solve FSD?"
Elon Musk:
"Yes"
Elon Musk:
"Yes"
I would say you’re underestimating 3. This stuff seems like it should be easy but isn’t by a long shot. There were a few multi-billion dollar companies that got crushed in the beginning of the smartphone era because they couldn’t hack it.
So is he saying that individual ownership of a Tesla is prohibited (by jacking up the price beyond affordability) because people would either make money with them therefore getting a good ROI, or people will not make money with them and gets a terrible CO2 reduction rating? Tesla only controlled robo-taxi service can ensure that the cars will constantly be used on the road therefore having the biggest impact on Co2 emissions vs individual ownership. It goes with the mission statement but is that where the company is going?
This post made me realize that those of us in the North Country who do long distance driving have been accustomed to such range anxiety for decades - and it has gotten a lot worse as the years pass.
This is absolutely analogous to our postal service (US, that is. I’ve no knowledge of the situation in Canada). We get mail delivery twice a week - has been so for seventeen or eighteen years, if memory serves - and it may diminish to once a week). It is with no small amusement that we read of such a frequency develop in the rest of the US. Trust me: life goes on. But I digress.
Nowadays, we have to expect that that service station we used just last month may be closed, may be abandoned, may have no product (or: “Diesel? No, but I can sell you some gas”). And the next open fueling station may be 40....or 140...miles beyond.
So who knew we were on the cutting edge of things to come? Well, we already have it in spades with climate change, so why not with socioeconomic change as well.
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