Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

These are screenshots of i-Pace mobile app.

Is this fugly sugar a joke?
View attachment 427780
View attachment 427781

errr... the tesla phone app wont even let me see that data for recent routes AFAIK? Lets not criticize something that this car does and a tesla does not...

 

[Chickenlittle]

Well, considering the annual registration fees for EVs in CA is pretty high and will be even higher starting next year, this will help alleviate the fee increases. I pay over $600/yr each for our Teslas currently.

Starting 2020, annual EV fees in CA will go up by $100 plus $25 to $175 based on the EV car’s value. This was passed awhile ago to offset loss in road taxes collected from gas purchases. So, annual fees for the Teslas could be as much as $900. Whereas an ICE would cost less than $300 annually.
Savings in gasoline costs completely wiped out by bigger difference in registration and insurance costs. Something that new EV drivers will be surprised to see after the fact.

Can’t count the number of times I have read posts of this nature. Example the change from the pseudo grill to the current front of the car. People do not like change until they like it. When I see older cars with the pseudo grill upfront, can’t believe how strange it looks

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

errr... the tesla phone app wont even let me see that data for recent routes AFAIK? Lets not criticize something that this car does and a tesla does not...

Fair enough, I’ve always said more functions should be integrated into the Tesla App, such as Tesla online design and merch store. Well, until they solved FSD and can afford to put more resources into expanding software functionality.

Still, regarding the i-Pace screenshots, I was focusing on the aesthetic aspect.

 

[Kiwi_Guy]

I very strongly disagree. Certain people would be fine with it. Others would vehemently not. It's the similar concept as people who have roommates. There are a lot of benefits for having some, especially in large cities, but a large portion of the populous (particularly Americans) would rather survive off pre-packaged ramen most days of the month and a tiny studio than have to share, especially if the person you're sharing with isn't a romantic partner who you'd otherwise have an emotional attachment to.

Now, there will be some who do, and will live happily for it. But to say it'd be the majority? Eh... not so much.

The combination of EV + million mile drive train + FSD + ride hailing/sharing + a large local fleet means convenient transport-as-a-service TaaS that's 10x cheaper and 10x safer than owning and driving your own car. The average American family will save $5600 per year in transport costs, and I'm pretty sure that the 78% of US workers who live from paycheck to paycheck (google it) will absolutely love this, as will the local economies (+$700 billion p/a if TaaS is deployed nationwide).

You will be able to pre-select your "class" of fellow passenger from your ride hailing app, or travel by yourself and pay more. Its simple economics, and over history every time a new thing is 10x better or cheaper than its predecessors a total disruption takes place.

RethinkX did a deep dive into this in 2017 (as did ARKinvest) Get the Report — RethinkX

Afterthought
The 10x cheaper bit assumes competition and therefore no monopoly profits. If Tesla finds itself first and alone in this market then I am sure Elon will find a way to both scale up massively and get the price way down - Tesla's mission after all is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. According to RethinkX only 26 million robo taxis are needed in 2030 (if TaaS starts in 2021) to provide 95% of all US passenger automobile miles. (excludes rural).

The Tesla fleet has averaged 84% annual growth since 2012 and 60% since 2015 (thanks Lex Fridman). If Tesla can scale their fleet at 50% p/a from here then thats 88 million total FSD EVs by 2030, more than enough for the US and a lot of other world TaaS markets. Just saying

 

[Christine69420]

For the S things like no door pockets or coat hooks.

Which should be possible to do something about within the scope of minor ongoing adjustments.

 

[Thekiwi]

NZ market is around 100k vehicles p.a. and given their relatively rural lifestyle and level of income I doubt there will be thousands of Tesla's sold there each year.

Last year Tesla sold 254 cars in NZ. Although the release of the M3 should drive numbers up nicely.

MIA > Sales Data > Vehicle Sales

I have no idea what you are talking about with the “relatively rural lifestyle and level of income” but we are highly urbanized, have the highest car ownership per capita on the planet (that isn’t Iceland or a tiny city state), expensive gasoline, and are a relatively rich country (similar per capita gdp as South Korea, UK etc).

Reason for low new car sales is the flood of near new used cars we get from Japan - no tariffs, ridiculously cheap. EV sales are lagging a lot due to basically zero incentives currently (and no model 3 available yet). The new government proposal announced today introduces an $8000 price cut, which will undoubtedly boost sales tremendously once in place. Given the long commutes many people have (highly suburban combined with crap public transport), a $50-$60k Model 3 will be a highly desirable money saving asset for many people.

New Zealand and Norway are similar in terms of size and population, would be an awesome feat if we get even a quarter way to their level of Tesla sales eventually.

 

[RobStark]

The combination of EV + million mile drive train + FSD + ride hailing/sharing + a large local fleet means convenient transport-as-a-service TaaS that's 10x cheaper and 10x safer than owning and driving your own car.

I highly doubt the average American driving 12k miles or even the average European driving 8k miles per year will find it 10x cheaper to use Tesla TaaS than buying a 5 year old LEAF or similar. Even a 5 year old Polo in Europe or Civic in the USA if a quick collapse in demand for ICEv nosedives the prices of used ICEv.

 

[Boomer19]

Iirc, they said they they would have corrected the issues by june 2019.

panasonic said june in their call i think

either way, at annual meeting in june, elon said they were at about 70-80% which means 24-28gwh of the 35

 

[LN1_Casey]

The combination of EV + million mile drive train + FSD + ride hailing/sharing + a large local fleet means convenient transport-as-a-service TaaS that's 10x cheaper and 10x safer than owning and driving your own car. The average American family will save $5600 per year in transport costs, and I'm pretty sure that the 78% of US workers who live from paycheck to paycheck (google it) will absolutely love this, as will the local economies (+$700 billion p/a if TaaS is deployed nationwide).

A lot of people living paycheck to paycheck won't necessarily choose to participate in the ride share program, even if it's the economical choice. I have been in the Navy for 10 years, and constantly I see little baby E-2/E-3's, who make practically nothing, go off and buy the newest Dodge Challenger/Ford Mustang, even though it's definitively not in their price range, or economically sensible for them to do so. Do these Sailors live pay check to paycheck? Absolutely. Do they make the sensible choice* because it's what their budget should entail? H double L to the no.

*I fully accept that the P100DL is also not necessarily in my own budget probabilities, but that's why I'm saving now, and I'm buying used.

You will be able to pre-select your "class" of fellow passenger from your ride hailing app

I'm sorry, but what? How can that in any way segregate persons reasonably? If I file myself as a "High Baller" in the app settings, is there a way to check this? Do they get access to my tax filings? Or does it segregate you based on the Tesla choice you make (S, X, or 3)? Because if the former, OMG, no. But if the latter; that doesn't truly separate the "class" of clients, just what they need/will pay for. You can have "I don't shower because why should I?" person choose to ride in the Model S exclusively, even if it's more economical to ride in the 3 for that person, because they "Like the look more" or whatever arbitrary reason.

 

[ammulder]

I highly doubt the average American driving 12k miles or even the average European driving 8k miles per year will find it 10x cheaper to use Tesla TaaS than buying a 5 year old LEAF or similar. Even a 5 year old Polo in Europe or Civic in the USA if a quick collapse in demand for ICEv nosedives the prices of used ICEv.

In the Philly area, a lot of people have long commutes (and we’re by no means the worst in the country!). Some from suburbs into the city, some from NJ suburbs to Philly suburbs, some even to NYC. If you’re commuting an hour or more each way, will a Robotaxi be cost effective? It’s a lot of time and/or miles to be paying for, ten times a week.

In the suburbs, the grocery store, gym, post office, or restaurant is 10+ minutes away. Is it going to be cost effective to add $10 to every one of those trips?

I get there’s a big market for Robotaxis in dense cities, and not as much in highly rural areas. But aren’t suburbs a bit out of the economic zone as well?

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 427750 Yay. Can finally put this one to bed.

Elon tweets that there is no Model S/X refresh coming, only incremental updates (repeated here in text format so it becomes searchable on TMC):

Brandon Havard‏ @BrandonJHavard 9h9 hours ago (7:03 PM - 8 Jul 2019)
So like... @elonmusk when’s the refreshed Model X coming? Asking for a friend...

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
There is no “refreshed” Model X or Model S coming, only a series of minor ongoing changes. Most significant change in past few years was to use high efficiency Model 3 rear drive unit as S/X front drive unit. That went into production 3 months ago.
9:08 PM - 8 Jul 2019

Replying to @elonmusk
Will we be seeing an interior revamp anytime soon though? Appreciate the reply!

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 7h7 hours ago
No​

So there it is. You can stop Osborne'ing now. Thank you in advance.

Cheers!​

 

[Prunesquallor]

You will be able to pre-select your "class" of fellow passenger from your ride hailing app, or travel by yourself and pay more.

Whaaat???

 

[RobStark]

In the Philly area, a lot of people have long commutes (and we’re by no means the worst in the country!). Some from suburbs into the city, some from NJ suburbs to Philly suburbs, some even to NYC. If you’re commuting an hour or more each way, will a Robotaxi be cost effective? It’s a lot of time and/or miles to be paying for, ten times a week.

In the suburbs, the grocery store, gym, post office, or restaurant is 10+ minutes away. Is it going to be cost effective to add $10 to every one of those trips?

I get there’s a big market for Robotaxis in dense cities, and not as much in highly rural areas. But aren’t suburbs a bit out of the economic zone as well?

IMO in cities where you have to pay ~$200 plus per month to park your car at "home" (apartment,co-op,condo) it will may very well make sense to replace personal cars with TaaS. In these cities when you drive somewhere there is a good chance you have to pay for parking at your destination too.

If you can park your car on your own private property and charge overnight from your own plug it will not.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm sorry, but what? How can that in any way segregate persons reasonably? If I file myself as a "High Baller" in the app settings, is there a way to check this? Do they get access to my tax filings?

The way AirBnB does it to allow hosts to verify a new guest is the following methods:

• There's a couple of automatic check-boxes that hosts can enable, for additional requirements guests must meet - such as extra government ID identification beyond the AirBnB authentication. So you can upgrade guests from "anyone with a credit card" to "anyone with a credit card and a government ID you can verify".
• Hosts can also select non-instantaneous booking and can and often do check the guests before renting their property to them for even a single night:
  • There's a reputation score for each guest,
  • photos of the guest are visible to hosts,
    
  • there's reviews by hosts made of guests which are visible to other hosts - for example how clean (or not so clean) the home was left after a visit,
  • hosts can also, if they so wish, interview the new guest online. They can freely reject guests that don't have a high enough visitor count yet, or which they feel uneasy about for any reason.

I've been a guest in numerous high value AirBNB properties and on occasion I've been interviewed thoroughly - and I've also been to AirBNB-only apartments with cheap IKEA furniture and an entry code given me over email so I'd never even meet the ower, and I believe this method works reasonably well. Yes, in principle you can scam yourself into a high value property which you can then wreck - but unless there's some criminal intent there's generally no point, and you'll wreck your reputation, and you'll also be liable for the damage. And note that homes are actually a lot more personal to most people than cars.

Likewise hosts can wreck their own reputation as well: for example if a reservation is cancelled it's basically a death sentence on AirBNB for future business.

So if Tesla Network starts out not as a taxi service, but as a car rental service where the car drives to you via FSD and where you can let it drive away once you are done using it, then I'd expect them to add a similar reputation mechanism. Owners who are uneasy about giving their personal cars to strangers can add heavy filters I suppose - which will lower their revenue but filters the guests.

I'd also expect there to be a cleanup service offered by Tesla Network as well, plus insurance for the occasional damage which always happens where there are people using things.

 

[dhrivnak]

True.
Not necessary for Riv to have a large charging network like Tesla. People usually don’t take pickup trucks for going on long road trips and vacations.

Sorry this is very wrong as go to any national park campground and you will see hundreds of trucks pulling campers. This is why we are taking our Volt and not the Model 3 on our camping trip this fall as most national parks and forest service camping has no options for charging and SuperCharging is a pain with a trailer.

 

[Christine69420]

I have no idea what you are talking about with the “relatively rural lifestyle and level of income” but we are highly urbanized, have the highest car ownership per capita on the planet (that isn’t Iceland or a tiny city state), expensive gasoline, and are a relatively rich country (similar per capita gdp as South Korea, UK etc).

Reason for low new car sales is the flood of near new used cars we get from Japan - no tariffs, ridiculously cheap. EV sales are lagging a lot due to basically zero incentives currently (and no model 3 available yet). The new government proposal announced today introduces an $8000 price cut, which will undoubtedly boost sales tremendously once in place. Given the long commutes many people have (highly suburban combined with crap public transport), a $50-$60k Model 3 will be a highly desirable money saving asset for many people.

New Zealand and Norway are similar in terms of size and population, would be an awesome feat if we get even a quarter way to their level of Tesla sales eventually.

I read somewhere recently that 50% of Norwegians live in the 20 or so largest cities. And 20% in the largest 5 which all have heavy car tolls for commuters.

So like NZ we are highly urbanized, have expensive gas (and car tolls) and we are a reliatively rich country. The difference in EV prevalence seems to be related to car taxes and tolls.

Until recently EVs paid no tolls and this above all fueled the growth of EVs in Norway after car taxes were changed to tax pollution and not horse powers.


> New Zealand and Norway are similar in terms of size and population

And nature. I want to go to NZ on holiday but then people say save the money, stay home, speak English and eat kiwis. I always think of you as our twin country. And the only reason we are so far apart is that Slartibartfast thought he should spread the joy around.

 

[UncaNed]

Elon tweets that there is no Model S/X refresh coming, only incremental updates (in text format so it becomes searchable on TMC):

Brandon Havard‏ @BrandonJHavard 9h9 hours ago (7:03 PM - 8 Jul 2019)

So like... @elonmusk when’s the refreshed Model X coming? Asking for a friend...

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
There is no “refreshed” Model X or Model S coming, only a series of minor ongoing changes. Most significant change in past few years was to use high efficiency Model 3 rear drive unit as S/X front drive unit. That went into production 3 months ago.
9:08 PM - 8 Jul 2019

Replying to @elonmusk
Will we be seeing an interior revamp anytime soon though? Appreciate the reply!

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 7h7 hours ago
No​

So there it is. You can stop Osborne'ing now. Thank you in advance.

Cheers!​

Well, at least we had lots of nice refresh discussions here in the "All Topics" forum...

 

[CorneliusXX]

I hope the Rivian R1T is sufficiently different from Tesla PU for both to “win”.

Numbers quoted by Rivian initially were 20k for first year, 40k second year. BUT very recently they upped the ante to “20k-40k for the first full year of production (2021)”. They have told reservation holders that they are planning small production runs in 4Q of 2019, and might deliver to a few customers before the end of the year.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe hints at initial production of 20k-40k vehicles in 2021

I agree that 20k or even 40k production per year won’t pose much of a threat to anyone, but they may have the ability to ramp up quickly. As someone here pointed out, their factory is in rural Illinois and with low labor costs, and they have picked up some of that labor force from some who worked there when it was a Mitsubishi plant. Just checked the numbers, Rivian factory is 2.6 million square feet, vs 5.3 for Fremont, so roughly half.

How deep is their battery supply?

 

[Fact Checking]

How deep is their battery supply?

Their prototypes are using 2170 cells from LG Chem I believe - so I suppose they are sharing LG Chem's supply bandwidth with other carmakers that are contracting LG Chem? But the use of cylindrical cells would allow Rivian to use other suppliers of high energy density cells.

 

[Sudre]

Sorry this is very wrong as go to any national park campground and you will see hundreds of trucks pulling campers. This is why we are taking our Volt and not the Model 3 on our camping trip this fall as most national parks and forest service camping has no options for charging and SuperCharging is a pain with a trailer.

I have not been to any campground in my travels anywhere in the USA and not been able to charge at a campground that has power for RVs and campers. NONE. I talk to the host and there is always a handicap spot or several not in use which is very rare to have to use but when they let me use it I have to move in the rare chance all the handy cap spots fill up. Oh and I don’t expect to charge for free. If you offer money they don’t see you as such a dick and have lots of spots.