Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

Adam Jonas is on the calls because Tesla needs to remain polite to Goldman Sachs, who runs various bond offerings and similar stuff. He shouldn't be on the calls because he's worthless as an analyst and asks nothing but stupid questions. But I think Tesla would have to switch all its business away from GS before they could snub him.

Stupid ego stuff by GS but there it is.

Tamburrino at Goldman sachs

 

[PeterJA]

Whenever I think about renting out our personal car, I think of the Seinfeld “The Smelly Car” episode, where Jerry’s car is contaminated by a valet having horrific BO.

The first movies were essentially filmed stage-plays with the camera fixed in a long shot like a playgoer sitting in the audience. It took awhile for people to imagine the new possibilities of the movie camera: closeups, tracking shots, crane shots, etc. It always takes awhile for people to imagine the new possibilities of new technology.

I probably can't imagine all the new possibilities of Tesla Network, but I know smelly cars will not be a problem.

You call a robotaxi with your phone app. The car arrives smelling like hell or dirty or damaged. You immediately tap the appropriate button in your app, which calls another car for you, and you optionally snap a photo of the mess that automatically gets sent to Tesla. Tesla checks video of the previous rider (taken with the interior camera and stored temporarily) and verifies that this rider made the mess. This rider is immediately banned from Tesla Network and will never defile another robotaxi.

You will always report any abuse of the car in this way, because if you don't, the rider after you will report YOU, and you might get banned and have to appeal the decision, which is a big hassle.

After an initial learning period, there will be no abuse of robotaxis, or so little that most riders will never see it.

Tesla has proven that their engineers think outside the box. Let's give them credit for some imagination.

 

[DragonWatch]

I love it when my wife lets me out of the basement and takes me on a road trip.

This morning we left Grapeview, WA headed towards Minden, NV along primarily I-5. We stopped briefly in Olympia so I could enjoy my non-vegan egg bites at Starbucks and chat a moment with the GrandPups and our daughter.

We are traveling incognito as owners of a Toyota Tacoma, yes fossil fuel hog. Gotta pick up stuff from grandmas place, so I brought little red riding hood along as my wife. Parents (grandparents to our daughter) are now ‘92 and forced/threatened into assisted living in Olympia. Needed our truck to bring a few remaining items to make their postage stamp living arrangement feel more like home.

All good Tesla friends will know either my wife or me; first we wave and give thumbs up, and if the driver or friend read our front plate frame ~ it is a Tesla plate frame. By our count today heading south before Portland was three truck loads of Tesla’s trying to escape into the wild. Two after Portland ~ the most truck loads we have seen to date in one day. In all we saw about 40 Ss, Xs, and 3s running wild. The 3s out numbered the Ss and Xs by about 3 to one.

The truck movement was notable to me in that we just passed the 2Q19 numbers, and kinda expect numbers to slack off a hair ~ you know so the bears could have something to talk about over their egg bites.

We also noticed that almost all Tesla drivers drive in the inside fast lane, abiding by the law , , That being the case, as the tipping point occurs, no other cars will be authorized use of the fast lane; except maybe a Leaf or two.

Once my Tesla Model T is released into the wild we will go back down to one car. That is unless the new roadster does not fit in the truck bed ~ gotta watch my wife

 

[Cosmacelf]

I hope the Rivian R1T is sufficiently different from Tesla PU for both to “win”.

Numbers quoted by Rivian initially were 20k for first year, 40k second year. BUT very recently they upped the ante to “20k-40k for the first full year of production (2021)”. They have told reservation holders that they are planning small production runs in 4Q of 2019, and might deliver to a few customers before the end of the year.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe hints at initial production of 20k-40k vehicles in 2021

I agree that 20k or even 40k production per year won’t pose much of a threat to anyone, but they may have the ability to ramp up quickly. As someone here pointed out, their factory is in rural Illinois and with low labor costs, and they have picked up some of that labor force from some who worked there when it was a Mitsubishi plant. Just checked the numbers, Rivian factory is 2.6 million square feet, vs 5.3 for Fremont, so roughly half.

I think you meant first cars end of 2020, not 2019.

 

[VValleyEV]

I think you meant first cars end of 2020, not 2019.

Dang. I did indeed.

 

[powertoold]

No revamped interior "soon" per Elon

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yay. Can finally put this one to bed.

 

[AZRI11]

No revamped interior "soon" per Elon

CNBC lies again, someone must have Tripped up Lora

 

[kengchang]

Could be Raven is logging decent amount of order? or they will drop it 2nd week of October or Jan 2020...

 

[EVNow]

View attachment 427750 Yay. Can finally put this one to bed.

Thank goodness. This has been one of my pet peeves - was probably something designed to soften demand for refreshed S/X.

 

[Off Shore]

Yay. Can finally put this one to bed.

Last line's the funny part.

 

[azaz]

The S/X interior is very dated compared to the 3.

I’m surprised there is no refresh. Also saves a lot of software dev time once the main screen is in the same orientation across all the cars

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla must really like simultaneously supporting a 2-screen UI in the S/X and a 1-screen UI in the 3. This doesn't make any sense. You would think they would want to refresh the S/X interior to bring it in line with the interior paradigm of the 3.

 

[KSilver2000]

Not sure IF posted already but this would be nice for potential Cali EV buyers: California bill could triple rebates for electric car buyers

Well, considering the annual registration fees for EVs in CA is pretty high and will be even higher starting next year, this will help alleviate the fee increases. I pay over $600/yr each for our Teslas currently.

Starting 2020, annual EV fees in CA will go up by $100 plus $25 to $175 based on the EV car’s value. This was passed awhile ago to offset loss in road taxes collected from gas purchases. So, annual fees for the Teslas could be as much as $900. Whereas an ICE would cost less than $300 annually.
Savings in gasoline costs completely wiped out by bigger difference in registration and insurance costs. Something that new EV drivers will be surprised to see after the fact.

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla must really like simultaneously supporting a 2-screen UI in the S/X and a 1-screen UI in the 3. This doesn't make any sense. You would think they would want to refresh the S/X interior to bring it in line with the interior paradigm of the 3.

I’m in the camp where if Tesla moves to a 3-style single middle screen, I would not buy another Tesla if there are other EV options.

I’m sure this post might get a lot of dislikes with the particular crowd here, but that’s my personal taste and I don’t give a thing what other people say.

Edit: IMO, the 3 interior would be too minimalist for S/X to do well with many car buyers in the $100K+ segment.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Thank goodness. This has been one of my pet peeves - was probably something designed to soften demand for refreshed S/X.

Should be a visible jump in S and X orders today, with people realising there is nothing to gain by waiting.

If there were competing cars in sight, Tesla would have reason to think about refresh. It’s lonely up there.

You were right about 18650. Cells are cells, not to be wasted.

All up, good news for shareholders. It means any messiness at Fremont won’t be impacting the top margins. If there’s activity, it means the Y is coming.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla must really like simultaneously supporting a 2-screen UI in the S/X and a 1-screen UI in the 3. This doesn't make any sense. You would think they would want to refresh the S/X interior to bring it in line with the interior paradigm of the 3.

What if hardware change is more expensive than maintaining two screen code ?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Tesla must really like simultaneously supporting a 2-screen UI in the S/X and a 1-screen UI in the 3. This doesn't make any sense. You would think they would want to refresh the S/X interior to bring it in line with the interior paradigm of the 3.

I don’t think it’s as hard as you imagine. Behind the scenes the software creates digital widgets. All they have to do is map those widgets onto available screen real estate. Scale a bit if necessary. All in a day’s work.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla must really like simultaneously supporting a 2-screen UI in the S/X and a 1-screen UI in the 3. This doesn't make any sense. You would think they would want to refresh the S/X interior to bring it in line with the interior paradigm of the 3.

UI code is super trivial to maintain.

 

[NicoV]

If the numbers worked leaps or even shares would probably provide better returns.

I'd like to see that Adam Jonas report on Tesla in 2025 saying how all the Robotaxi trips have been pulled forward to Q2 from Q3 and Q4 because of possible tax increase on robotaxis.

They have all been bought up by a terminator coming from the future!