Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

It looks like Fremont is going to be making a lot of cars with the steering wheel on the wrong side for a while. That combined with Canada’s generous incentives and you might see the delivery times in the us for base cars start to go up not down. Tesla will almost certainly not need to reduce prices.

Canada drives on the same side of the road as the U.S.

 

[SO16]

CNBC/Lora Kolodny at it again:

Tesla employees say they took shortcuts, worked through harsh conditions to meet Model 3 production goals

No need to fear the link; I used a 3rd-party website to archive the link so your click won't give CNBC clicks.

Complaining about the warm and cold conditions? Good grief. That describes probably most factories in the US.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Canada drives on the same side of the road as the U.S.

I think you misunderstood what he meant.

 

[Electroman]

Canada drives on the same side of the road as the U.S.

.. since when?

 

[Captkerosene]

Now you are making me feel sorry for all the farriers who lost the jobs shoeing horses and all the leather makers who lost their jobs making harnesses when the Model T took over from horse-drawn carriages. We should all go back...

Oh, wait, there were an equal number of people who gained good jobs making Model T's!

And "killing" the electric car might not be an actual criminal act but don't you think there should be repercussions?

You all just seem to like it a little too much. Maybe start a poll on who you hate the most:

-Trump
-Republicans
-Conservatives
-Oil companies
-Auto companies
-Power companies
-Capitalists
-People who drive pickup trucks
-Anybody who thinks the effects of AGW are being overstated
-Russians
-Media
-Analysts
-Bob Lutz
-Car dealers

Is your goal to make money and improve the world or to dish out suffering to those you despise? If it's to dish out suffering then I'm on the other side.

 

[jerry33]

.. since when?

Well before I was born. I think there was a time when Canada didn't, but that was around the late 1700s. The U.S. used to drive on the left until Napoleon became the U.S. ally against the English.

 

[Singuy]

The biggest mistake newbies make (and also many experienced investors) when holding a good stock is to sell it too early. I've made most of my money by holding good stocks through some incredible run-ups (and not selling a single share). When I look at the math I cringe at how much I would have "lost" by selling a portion of the shares on the rise. Remember, you bought the stock (presumably) because the bigger picture, the longer term, was compelling, don't dilute your returns by selling right when everyone starts to want in. It's a rare individual who can time the peaks and valleys well enough to make it worthwhile. There is nothing worse than selling half of your shares and then watch the share price climb for the sky.



You haven't made enough to shake a stick at yet!

When you are bull on a stock, spent most of your time researching and defending the company every which way..just to see the share raise while you sit on the sideline because you were baited into selling early is the WORST feeling as an investor. I was down -40k with AMD at my worst and it didn't even phase me. I just kept cost averaging down. But that moment I sold 70% of my shares after making a 40k profit and then watch it balloon up to what could have been a 300k profit..I couldn't eat for a week. Learned it the hard way. Just going to buy and Hold. I don't have magical powers or a crystal ball. Everything is hindsight 20/20. The only thing you can control is how you feel about the company, not how you feel about the stock price.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

The trading side of me agrees.
The Tesla supporter side of me is okey with having ridden it down.

Where I screwed up is by using only options. I was betting on $200 strike price calls. The right to buy a stock for $200 isn't worth 2 dead flies when the stock is at $175. If Tesla gets significantly over $600 a share by June of 2020 I might have enough to buy a Tesla. At $750 a share Tesla would have a market Capitalization of under $150 billion. Elon musk says he doesn't even want to get paid until Tesla breaks $600 Billion market cap. By next June I really do think that Tesla autopilot will be far enough along to were people will begin to see the value. I have two options right to buy for $530 a share. 4 options right to buy for $600. Total investment about $700. I love gambling on the stock market with options. I rode racehorse for 26 years and NEVER bet on them. With the stock market you can be so close to being 100% sure on a company like Tesla I don't even consider it gambling. With options you have to be right on the stock and on the timing. That's gambling and I have lost big in the last year.

 

[Todd Burch]

Is your goal to make money and improve the world or to dish out suffering to those you despise? If it's to dish out suffering then I'm on the other side.

Why do you feel these options are mutually exclusive? My goal is both!

 

[Singuy]

What triggered this run-up? The Neuralink news?

Earnings coming up. People want to get their money in knowing that SP will probably jump afterwards. It's not rocket science to calculate Tesla's cash flow/profits with the total delivery report.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

When you are bull on a stock, spent most of your time researching and defending the company every which way..just to see the share raise while you sit on the sideline because you were baited into selling early is the WORST feeling as an investor. I was down -40k with AMD at my worst and it didn't even phase me. I just kept cost averaging down. But that moment I sold 70% of my shares after making a 40k profit and then watch it balloon up to what could have been a 300k profit..I couldn't eat for a week. Learned it the hard way. Just going to buy and Hold. I don't have magical powers or a crystal ball. Everything is hindsight 20/20. The only thing you can control is how you feel about the company, not how you feel about the stock price.

Where I screwed up is by using only options. I was betting on $200 strike price calls. The right to buy a stock for $200 isn't worth 2 dead flies when the stock is at $175. If Tesla gets significantly over $600 a share by June of 2020 I might have enough to buy a Tesla. At $750 a share Tesla would have a market Capitalization of under $150 billion. Elon musk says he doesn't even want to get paid until Tesla breaks $600 Billion market cap. By next June I really do think that Tesla autopilot will be far enough along to were people will begin to see the value. I have two options right to buy for $530 a share. 4 options right to buy for $600. Total investment about $700. I love gambling on the stock market with options. I rode racehorse for 26 years and NEVER bet on them. With the stock market you can be so close to being 100% sure on a company like Tesla I don't even consider it gambling. With options you have to be right on the stock and on the timing. That's gambling and I have lost big in the last year.

I said about 4 years ago that by 2020 Tesla would hit $1,000 a share. I still think that is possible. If Tesla even has ONE robo taxi by the end of 2020 this stock will hit BIG. If you can make a profit of $30,000 a year on a $45,000 investment how many people will be lining up to buy a Tesla and the stock. If this is not a no brainer I don't know what is. IT'S ALL ABOUT AUTOPILOT.

 

[canoemore]

You all just seem to like it a little too much. Maybe start a poll on who you hate the most:

-Trump
-Republicans
-Conservatives
-Oil companies
-Auto companies
-Power companies
-Capitalists
-People who drive pickup trucks
-Anybody who thinks the effects of AGW are being overstated
-Russians
-Media
-Analysts
-Bob Lutz
-Car dealers

Is your goal to make money and improve the world or to dish out suffering to those you despise? If it's to dish out suffering then I'm on the other side.

Speaking for myself, the goal is not to dish out suffering. It is to curtail the suffering that many of the entities that you list contribute to. I suppose I won't be too upset personally if they get a taste of some of that suffering in the process. But I think you're being a little melodramatic.

 

[EVNow]

His life was spent in this industry. All his friends will lose their jobs and retirements. Tesla people are celebrating their destruction. He's doing what he can to save as many as he can. I don't think he's evil.

You are defending someone who is fabulously wealthy - got so by selling toxins spewing vehicles - with this BS ?

ICE executives are no better than tobacco executives. In fact, worse.

ps : I'm fairly sure all his friends are fabulously wealthy too.

 

[Unpilot]

But I think you're being a little melodramati

A little??

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

You and your wife just a little sore..
You better check that out with a doctor asap. I was rear ended almost ten years ago. I was also a little sore in the beginning. Three days later, however, I could not get out of bed, such an incredible pain in neck and head. The adrenaline rush passed and the real symptoms started kicking in.
Went to the doctor. First he gave me a week off. After going back to the Dr. he gave me another two weeks off. After that he gave me a month off etc.
Now, ten years later I am still at home. Fully disabled for work! I am still sore, especially in the afternoon, and still on medication. Need Botox injections every three months and additional lower back injections.

These rear-end collisions are no joke especially when you come out "a little sore" in the beginning!

Thanks man. Wish you well.
That was not me though.
It was a Tesla owner's twitter account. I simply spread the word.

 

[adiggs]

I've only seen a brief mention here, but the UK announced a new huge BIK tax incentive for EVs last week which I think has a good chance to take UK to Tesla's number 3 market going forward.

BIK tax rates are paid on company cars because the car is a "benefit in kind" which is essentially a supplement to salary.
This year UK BIK tax rates are at 16% to 37% of the sale price per year - with the the rate based on emissions. This rate is then multiplied by the employee's tax rate (20%, 40% or 50%) - I would guess the majority of company cars go to employees on the 40% tax rate.
So for example a car with CO2 emissions at 100-104g/km would pay 25%, for a 40% tax bracket and £30k car price, would pay 25%*40%*30 = £3k per year, or £9k over a 3 year lease ($11.3k).
From next tax year (April 2020) the EV BIK tax rate will be 0%, then 1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022. So compared to a 100h/km £30k ICE, this is equivalent to a c.$11k EV incentive over 3 years of ownership.
My read of the rules is that the new tax rate will apply to EVs even if they are on the road already today - So the amount of monthly tax will suddenly reduce in April 2020, but it should not cause companies to delay EV purchases today.
The UK also has a £3.5k ($4.4k) EV grant which i assume will also apply to the company cars (can anyone confirm this?) taking the total 3 year incentive to $15.4k.
Also, no BIK tax is paid on electricity charging costs provided by your employer.

The market for BIK company cars in UK is likely 350k-500k per year (compared to a total UK car market of 2,400k). This is similar in size to the entire car market in the Netherlands (450k) and significantly larger than the Norway car market (150k).
This is now a very significant incentive and it seems hard to justify purchasing a ICE car via the BIK system now there are EVs such as Model 3 available. This tax change will likely also encourage people to acquire cars via their companies rather than in person (an untaxed EV is now much better value than a pay rise or bonus) so should act to increase the overall UK company car market.

In addition to this, the UK also provides a grant up to 75% of home chargepoint installation costs, and has just announced all new homes will be required to have an EV chargepoint and that all non-residential buildings undergoing major renovation projects must introduce chargers to 20% of parking spaces.

Considering UK petrol prices are over double the US average, the 2.4 million annual UK car demand is starting to look very well positioned to transition to EVs. The main obstacle is FUD and lack of knowledge of the EV options available and TCOE advantage.

This sounds like an aggressive set of inducements that might turn the UK into something like Norway as far as adoption goes. Very exciting.

 

[RFernatt]

Looks like Toyota and their suppliers need to bone up on electrical components if/when they ever jump into the BEV game.

Toyota is ordered to pay auto dealer $15.8 million in trial over Prius defects

"An Orange County jury Monday morning ordered Toyota to pay $15.8 million to one of its largest dealers in Southern California, who alleged that the company’s recalls to fix the electric power system of its popular Prius models did not remedy safety defects.

Roger Hogan, who operates dealerships in Claremont and San Juan Capistrano, contended in a two-month trial in Orange County Superior Court in Santa Ana that the automaker retaliated against him after he began raising concerns about the safety of the Prius’ electric power system in 2017 and for his effort to promote a safety recall software system in 2011. ....

Toyota had acknowledged defects in the 2010 to 2014 Prius in a 2014 recall. The problem involved a key part known as an inverter, which could overheat and fry itself, leaving the car with limited or no power.

The Times disclosed the existence of the dispute between Toyota and Hogan last year. The decision by Toyota to remedy the overheating problem in the inverter by modifying the software probably affected the vehicle’s fuel efficiency and emissions, according to academic experts on hybrid vehicle systems who were interviewed by The Times. ....

On July 2, the day the jury began deliberating, Toyota issued a recall affecting another part of its Prius electric power system. The company notified its dealers of a recall of 500 Prius Model C vehicles made in 2018. The recall involves a manufacturing issue with the direct current converter, a part of the power system that could cause a loss of power and “increase the risk of a crash,” according to notices sent to dealers."

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Rumored price cut in China
All Fremont versions, not Giga 3

Translation:

Model 3
SR+ 355,900 (377,000 before IIRC)
difference: 21,100

LR RWD 406,000 (421,000), only 1600 left, will not be available later
difference: 15,000

LR AWD 429,000 (463,000)
difference: 34,000

Performance 499,000 (522,000)
difference: 23,000

Model S
770,000 ONLY Long Range
(Presumably Performance not listed)

Model X
790,000 ONLY Long Range
(Presumably Performance not listed)

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Rumored price cut in China
All Fremont versions, not Giga 3

Translation:

Model 3
SR+ 355,900 (377,000 before IIRC)
difference: 21,100

LR RWD 406,000 (421,000), only 1600 left, will not be available later
difference: 15,000

LR AWD 429,000 (463,000)
difference: 34,000

Performance 499,000 (522,000)
difference: 23,000

Model S
770,000 ONLY Long Range
(Presumably Performance not listed)

Model X
790,000 ONLY Long Range
(Presumably Performance not listed)


View attachment 430102

And...........
It's happening

There is indeed a price cut, and the numbers above are mostly right.

 

[CaliBear1]

I don't want to incur the wrath of our mods with another visit to the service issue rabbit hole, but I think my positive experience last week merits consideration for a couple of reasons that go beyond the service itself. Specifically, my experience suggests improved intra-division communication, resolution of which will go a long way toward addressing the service concerns rightfully raised by Neroden and others here.

I set up an appointment online for installation of my spoiler (finally!) and to have them evaluate an intermittent rattle coming from a driver door speaker. I played the song with a bass drop that usually triggers it and the Tesla tech quickly agreed there was an issue. They took my car and gave me a loaner X. Boy, what a different driving experience that is coming from a P3D! But I digress.

After turning in my car I went to the showroom and shared with the sales team that I had won a signature black wall charger through referrals, but had heard nothing over the past six months and saw nothing in my "loot box" which would shed any light on a delivery schedule. They candidly said communication between the referral team and them had not been very efficient, but they would send an email on my behalf. Three days later I found the charger on my doorstep.

As for the speaker, the door panels are modular, so they simply replaced mine and the car was ready the next day and has exhibited no further audio defects.

The service team was excellent, the sales team understanding and responsive and communication between the various divisions appears to be improving.

Now I know I should expect nothing less from a showroom near ground zero for Tesla, but, big things come from small beginnings.

Long & Strong

Cheers,

CB1