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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A question for all the experts here... Over the last month I've started buying TSLA shares but before that I've never had any stock, never even had a trading account, so there's some basics that I'm curious about.

People here make statements like "If it breaks-through X, then it's an easy path to Y" or "if it falls-through Z, then Q is the next resistance". How do you know these numbers?
All I know is, IMHO, you picked a wonderful time to buy!
 
The biggest mistake newbies make (and also many experienced investors) when holding a good stock is to sell it too early. I've made most of my money by holding good stocks through some incredible run-ups (and not selling a single share). When I look at the math I cringe at how much I would have "lost" by selling a portion of the shares on the rise. Remember, you bought the stock (presumably) because the bigger picture, the longer term, was compelling, don't dilute your returns by selling right when everyone starts to want in. It's a rare individual who can time the peaks and valleys well enough to make it worthwhile. There is nothing worse than selling half of your shares and then watch the share price climb for the sky.


You haven't made enough to shake a stick at yet!
Disagree. I wish I'd sold at $380.00
 
I've only seen a brief mention here, but the UK announced a new huge BIK tax incentive for EVs last week which I think has a good chance to take UK to Tesla's number 3 market going forward.

BIK tax rates are paid on company cars because the car is a "benefit in kind" which is essentially a supplement to salary.
This year UK BIK tax rates are at 16% to 37% of the sale price per year - with the the rate based on emissions. This rate is then multiplied by the employee's tax rate (20%, 40% or 50%) - I would guess the majority of company cars go to employees on the 40% tax rate.
So for example a car with CO2 emissions at 100-104g/km would pay 25%, for a 40% tax bracket and £30k car price, would pay 25%*40%*30 = £3k per year, or £9k over a 3 year lease ($11.3k).
From next tax year (April 2020) the EV BIK tax rate will be 0%, then 1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022. So compared to a 100h/km £30k ICE, this is equivalent to a c.$11k EV incentive over 3 years of ownership.
My read of the rules is that the new tax rate will apply to EVs even if they are on the road already today - So the amount of monthly tax will suddenly reduce in April 2020, but it should not cause companies to delay EV purchases today.
The UK also has a £3.5k ($4.4k) EV grant which i assume will also apply to the company cars (can anyone confirm this?) taking the total 3 year incentive to $15.4k.
Also, no BIK tax is paid on electricity charging costs provided by your employer.

The market for BIK company cars in UK is likely 350k-500k per year (compared to a total UK car market of 2,400k). This is similar in size to the entire car market in the Netherlands (450k) and significantly larger than the Norway car market (150k).

This is now a very significant incentive and it seems hard to justify purchasing a ICE car via the BIK system now there are EVs such as Model 3 available. This tax change will likely also encourage people to acquire cars via their companies rather than in person (an untaxed EV is now much better value than a pay rise or bonus) so should act to increase the overall UK company car market.

In addition to this, the UK also provides a grant up to 75% of home chargepoint installation costs, and has just announced all new homes will be required to have an EV chargepoint and that all non-residential buildings undergoing major renovation projects must introduce chargers to 20% of parking spaces.

Considering UK petrol prices are over double the US average, the 2.4 million annual UK car demand is starting to look very well positioned to transition to EVs. The main obstacle is FUD and lack of knowledge of the EV options available and TCOE advantage.
 
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The trading side of me agrees.
The Tesla supporter side of me is okey with having ridden it down.

In hindsight, yes, better to sell high and buy back low. In practice, no one knows if it will keep going up or go back down. Even if it does go down after you sell it, you don't know when it will go up again. It could shoot past your sell point before you are able to buy it back. That's why "buy and hold" is a proven investment strategy.
 
Seems like a high level of exuberance on here...
And I keep remembering January 2019 when the future also looked rosy. And that was the result of two good quarters and this time there has been one (we think, ER still to come). We didn't know about the operational failures to come (Raven delay; Europe and China logistics; Panasonic's inability to ramp cell production) that led to a poor financial quarter. Hopefully 1Q will prove to be an aberration, fingers crossed.
 
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Good article by Simon Alvarez over on Teslarati. He summarizes an interview with Paul Eichenberg. Some takeaways:

. . .

"Elaborating further, Eichenberg mentioned that big-tier corporations such as Honeywell and Delphi, whose businesses are tied to the internal combustion engine, are now positioning themselves through spinoffs as a way to shed their ICE-centered assets."

Speaking of Delphi (NYSE: DLPH), these are the things they want you to know they pioneered:
  • Self-start vehicle ignitions.
  • Electric starters.
  • PVC insulated cables.
  • Multi-wire connection systems.
  • Catalytic converters.
  • Direct-acting diesel fuel injection systems.
  • CARB-approved, handheld evaporative emissions testers.
  • Common rail systems for medium- and heavy-duty applications.
  • Convertible, PC-based diagnostic tools with access to faster, more affordable on-board diagnostics, tech support and service information.
  • Ammonia sensors for nitrogen oxide emission control.
But they want you to know that's the past, and their future is so bright, etc. These are the topmost things Delphi wants you to know they're working on now:
  • Intelligent driving
  • Software and systems solutions
  • Power electronics
  • Combined inverter and DC/DC converter
  • Viper Inverter Power Switch
(Sounds like Tesla almost!)

Of course if you scroll down further you find out their current work also involves lots of legacy ICE stuff:
  • Dynamic Skip Fire -- "just the right number of [ICE] cylinders to do the job"
  • 48-volt mild hybrid
  • 350 Bar GDi system for Low Particulate Emissions
  • High-Performance Modular Ignition Coil Without Magnets
  • High Accuracy Fuel Level Sensor
  • F3 closed loop and DFI 21 [Fuel] Injectors
  • Selective Catalyst Reduction - Removing harmful emissions
  • Aftermarket Diesel Test Equipment
I suspect Delphi's going to be facing a tough road ahead. Stock market seems to think so too. Here's their chart from 2011-present:

DLPH.png
 
Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.

I started investing in Tesla mid 2017 (I will not explain my personal reason why Tesla, you guys mostly know), bad timing some would say but it was my first try at investing and I don’t regret since I learned a lot about the psychology of it and I keep learning. Since then I added on every deep (last at 178$ I am really proud of) and reduced my average buying price of around 70$ (still in the red for now).

I identify a lot to Gali from HyperChange because we have the same age and almost as many shares, ridiculous amount compared to most of you guys but I don’t plan on selling for the next 15.. 20 years.. ever ? And as half of all my possession are Tesla shares, I am really confortable with that (althought I would have loved buying more under 200 but had no more dry pouder…)

ANYWAY, I am SO EXCITED today for something you already experienced a lot. I live in Paris, I am a Tesla investor and very vocal about it, explaining to everyone who wants to hear what you guys explain here for years, and I have been mocked a lot for that. Last month, I convinced one of my colleagues/friend to buy a model 3 (He drives A LOT and with the price of gas in France, it really is a no brainer for him). For the past year, another colleague (around 50years old, former military, love muscle cars) is mocking me calling me « the electric guy » in a bad way, mocking Tesla, etc… and mocking my friend with his Tesla for the past month (« don’t park your Tesla close to my car I don’t want it to burn », « you must have a long cable to drive home », etc…) . This guy spends 15000€ in gas every year so now WE were mocking him for that and for the first time he didn’t know what to answer.

The reason I AM SUPER EXCITED is because my friend gave him a test drive last Thursday at 1PM, at 1.30PM he was on Tesla website to configure his own. I was mind blown, if a guy like him can be so easily convinced with the economics and most importantly the car (I smile at him in a « I won » way and he told me « I knew it could be interesting economically but I really didn’t expect the car to be so good, fun and amazing to drive… »), it is definitely over, WE WON!!! I post a picture of my friend’s Tesla on a story Instagram the Friday (I almost never post so) I don’t get much answer usually but this time I got answer of (french) people saying they dream to have a Tesla, how it is, asking a lot of interested questions.

Sorry for this long post, I am just so so happy. So many people criticizing Tesla and mocking my investment saying I was just throwing money out of the window… It is just game over, we won. Everyone wants Tesla, in every parts of the world! I see one per day in Paris now (I don’t live in the rich sector) where I never saw any just 6 months ago.

Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !
Tesla cars will probably move further away from that base model 3 price of US $35'000. if Musk carries through with his business plans of keeping most of his cars for use as RoboTaxis's. It's estimated one car can earn as much as $300'000 in the time frame of it's drivability usefulness. You can read the full article on the Electrek website.
 
Pacific Gas & Electric, our Northern California utility, is pushing backup power due to "elevated weather conditions" aka increased risk of wildfires (Pacific Gas and Electric Company)

This is generating interest in people for Powerwall. Below is a sample from our neighborhood e-mail list. I understand the sender's family has a strong interest in continuous power because of some medical equipment that someone in their household requires. However, I don't know that they have any particular interest in Tesla.

In case you have not seen this email from PG&E, and wanted to send it along to you with a couple of comments:

1. PG&E is clearly warning that the power shutoffs may last for several days due to "elevated weather conditions", and that we should plan to have no power for more than 48 hours. I do not recall us in the South Bay having to be without power for 2 days or more since the Loma Prieta earthquake back in 1991.

2. They are clearly suggesting backup power generation. While they do not appear to push for battery storage, practically every solar energy vendor you talk to now will recommend that battery storage (such as Powerwall) is used together with a solar energy system. Prices for battery storage systems are also going up to reflect either real or anticipated demand.

I raise this not to provoke discussion about storage per se, but to point out that it may prove, ah, improvident to dismiss or forget the storage side of the business. Demand drivers, including even promotions to the public, assuredly exist

Not advice.
 
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I've only seen a brief mention here, but the UK announced a new huge BIK tax incentive for EVs last week which I think has a good chance to take UK to Tesla's number 3 market going forward.

BIK tax rates are paid on company cars because the car is a "benefit in kind" which is essentially a supplement to salary.
This year UK BIK tax rates are at 16% to 37% of the sale price per year - with the the rate based on emissions. This rate is then multiplied by the employee's tax rate (20%, 40% or 50%) - I would guess the majority of company cars go to employees on the 40% tax rate.
So for example a car with CO2 emissions at 100-104g/km would pay 25%, for a 40% tax bracket and £30k car price, would pay 25%*40%*30 = £3k per year, or £9k over a 3 year lease ($11.3k).
From next tax year (April 2020) the EV BIK tax rate will be 0%, then 1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022. So compared to a 100h/km £30k ICE, this is equivalent to a c.$11k EV incentive over 3 years of ownership.
My read of the rules is that the new tax rate will apply to EVs even if they are on the road already today - So the amount of monthly tax will suddenly reduce in April 2020, but it should not cause companies to delay EV purchases today.
The UK also has a £3.5k ($4.4k) EV grant which i assume will also apply to the company cars (can anyone confirm this?) taking the total 3 year incentive to $15.4k.
Also, no BIK tax is paid on electricity charging costs provided by your employer.

The market for BIK company cars in UK is likely 350k-500k per year (compared to a total UK car market of 2,400k). This is similar in size to the entire car market in the Netherlands (450k) and significantly larger than the Norway car market (150k).

This is now a very significant incentive and it seems hard to justify purchasing a ICE car via the BIK system now there are EVs such as Model 3 available. This tax change will likely also encourage people to acquire cars via their companies rather than in person (an untaxed EV is now much better value than a pay rise or bonus) so should act to increase the overall UK company car market.

In addition to this, the UK also provides a grant up to 75% of home chargepoint installation costs, and has just announced all new homes will be required to have an EV chargepoint and that all non-residential buildings undergoing major renovation projects must introduce chargers to 20% of parking spaces.

Considering UK petrol prices are over double the US average, the 2.4 million annual UK car demand is starting to look very well positioned to transition to EVs. The main obstacle is FUD and lack of knowledge of the EV options available and TCOE advantage.
It looks like Fremont is going to be making a lot of cars with the steering wheel on the wrong side for a while. That combined with Canada’s generous incentives and you might see the delivery times in the us for base cars start to go up not down. Tesla will almost certainly not need to reduce prices.
 
Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.

I started investing in Tesla mid 2017 (I will not explain my personal reason why Tesla, you guys mostly know), bad timing some would say but it was my first try at investing and I don’t regret since I learned a lot about the psychology of it and I keep learning. Since then I added on every deep (last at 178$ I am really proud of) and reduced my average buying price of around 70$ (still in the red for now).

I identify a lot to Gali from HyperChange because we have the same age and almost as many shares, ridiculous amount compared to most of you guys but I don’t plan on selling for the next 15.. 20 years.. ever ? And as half of all my possession are Tesla shares, I am really confortable with that (althought I would have loved buying more under 200 but had no more dry pouder…)

ANYWAY, I am SO EXCITED today for something you already experienced a lot. I live in Paris, I am a Tesla investor and very vocal about it, explaining to everyone who wants to hear what you guys explain here for years, and I have been mocked a lot for that. Last month, I convinced one of my colleagues/friend to buy a model 3 (He drives A LOT and with the price of gas in France, it really is a no brainer for him). For the past year, another colleague (around 50years old, former military, love muscle cars) is mocking me calling me « the electric guy » in a bad way, mocking Tesla, etc… and mocking my friend with his Tesla for the past month (« don’t park your Tesla close to my car I don’t want it to burn », « you must have a long cable to drive home », etc…) . This guy spends 15000€ in gas every year so now WE were mocking him for that and for the first time he didn’t know what to answer.

The reason I AM SUPER EXCITED is because my friend gave him a test drive last Thursday at 1PM, at 1.30PM he was on Tesla website to configure his own. I was mind blown, if a guy like him can be so easily convinced with the economics and most importantly the car (I smile at him in a « I won » way and he told me « I knew it could be interesting economically but I really didn’t expect the car to be so good, fun and amazing to drive… »), it is definitely over, WE WON!!! I post a picture of my friend’s Tesla on a story Instagram the Friday (I almost never post so) I don’t get much answer usually but this time I got answer of (french) people saying they dream to have a Tesla, how it is, asking a lot of interested questions.

Sorry for this long post, I am just so so happy. So many people criticizing Tesla and mocking my investment saying I was just throwing money out of the window… It is just game over, we won. Everyone wants Tesla, in every parts of the world! I see one per day in Paris now (I don’t live in the rich sector) where I never saw any just 6 months ago.

Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !

I'm choked up reading this, thanks. I'm French myself (from Canada). We're doing alright with this language seems.

I'm in Phoenix Arizona (hot today) where gas is about the cheapest at under $3 per gal (sorry, making you convert...). It's so cheap that people around me aren't dropping everything to get one, at least no one I know. Wish I could feel that "told you so." But they're selling somewhere at delivering 50 cars per day recently nearby. So ya, I think we did win because that initial wave last year keeps growing. I'll probably see all these folks get the SUV, it's family homes here.

I rode this stock all the way down, increasing my interest, and was full in at bottom. I wasn't concerned, just pissed I didn't get in here! A 10-20 yr hold sounds about right. 5X at least. Look at SpaceX stock for another Elon example of thinking long-term.

And hey, drive it like you mean it! Second set of tires now ;)
 
All this talk of spreading your risk with 30-40 different stock in a portfolio... Screw that, I'm all in $TSLA and boo hoo if I lose it all, my life stays as it is - comfortable enough, but if it goes where we expect, that's one hell of a retirement I have lined up in 15 years time.

Personal choies, I don't care about the risk, all bought with cash.
I am with you on this, Tesla is bet on Jockey ,I am very confident long term investors will be rewarded for holding through short term up and down, thanks to competition ,which is so out right dumb they don’t even know how to copy what Tesla doing or they are so caught up in media FUD and praying If some how EV transitions will fail and ICE business as usual.
 
I am with you on this, Tesla is bet on Jockey ,I am very confident long term investors will be rewarded for holding through short term up and down, thanks to competition ,which is so out right dumb they don’t even know how to copy what Tesla doing or they are so caught up in media FUD and praying If some how EV transitions will fail and ICE business as usual.
"put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket" Good advice from Andrew Carnegie. IMO.
 
I'm choked up reading this, thanks. I'm French myself (from Canada). We're doing alright with this language seems.

I'm in Phoenix Arizona (hot today) where gas is about the cheapest at under $3 per gal (sorry, making you convert...). It's so cheap that people around me aren't dropping everything to get one, at least no one I know. Wish I could feel that "told you so." But they're selling somewhere at delivering 50 cars per day recently nearby. So ya, I think we did win because that initial wave last year keeps growing. I'll probably see all these folks get the SUV, it's family homes here.

I rode this stock all the way down, increasing my interest, and was full in at bottom. I wasn't concerned, just pissed I didn't get in here! A 10-20 yr hold sounds about right. 5X at least. Look at SpaceX stock for another Elon example of thinking long-term.

And hey, drive it like you mean it! Second set of tires now ;)
Driving a cool fast car while saving the planet at the same time. If I had a tesla with autopilot I could FINALLY juggle while driving.
 
I am with you on this, Tesla is bet on Jockey ,I am very confident long term investors will be rewarded for holding through short term up and down, thanks to competition ,which is so out right dumb they don’t even know how to copy what Tesla doing or they are so caught up in media FUD and praying If some how EV transitions will fail and ICE business as usual.

I read some books about investing and came away with this one thought. When you are sure BET THE FARM. To me betting on Tesla is like betting on the telephone when it was first invented.