Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

TL;DR:
Good: Lots of cash for growth and potential
Bad: No party tonight and portfolios are back to red

This was predicted by a number of people, the price being bid up into earnings so they could slam it back down after hours today (and probably hold it down tomorrow).

The good news is that markets find a balance in time.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Expect 8,300-8,600 Model 3s per week at Fremont by end of year.

 

[tinm]

I rode the elevator down with Cathie Wood after the ARK event and asked her, "Do you think Wall Street is overreacting on TSLA tonight?"

She laughed and said, "Of course! Of course! Like always!"

 

[anon]

Looks like S/X demand is not expected to recover soon - Musk is forecasting maybe 1500/week (in rough terms) by the end of the year.

 

[elasalle]

Price so down, and Tamborino, Jonas not on line yet ....

 

[BornToFly]

There is just no reason why we should be down AH....

 

[tinm]

Unfortunately he wasn't talking about service communications with customers. (Though maybe if they ask people why they aren't planning to buy another Model S, they'll back their way into finding out about the service problems?!?)

I know, I know... and I knew you would point that out too

 

[azaz]

Looks like S/X demand is not expected to recover - Musk is forecasting 1500/week by the end of the year.

Also said they are gonna address it now, I think it’ll bounce sooner than they think if they do the right things

 

[SpaceCash]

Elon sure sounded like advertising there

He's been in advertising mode the whole time. He needs to channel more "Iron Man" and just spell it out in a way normies can understand; he tends to get overly focussed on saying "guys seriously this is so difficult but we're doing it" and it gives some people the wrong idea because they aren't actually hearing what his point is and he doesn't sound confident in the stereotypical sense.

 

[neroden]

Objectively speaking, wouldn't that be a long's equivalent to FUDshorts moving goalposts. In the very beginning of this year, Musk expected profit in Q1, then Q2, now Q4, and that's what many here believed.

Sure! But on the other hand...

I wasn't really expecting profit until they hit the right volume per week, and the current projections actually seem to make sense. Previously all of his projections seemed too optimistic to me. So I'm glad that they start to seem realistic...

 

[Zaxxon]

"I think there's a communications issue"
-- Elon Musk, 7:12pm ET, Wednesday July 24, 2019

The first step to fixing a problem is recognizing there is a problem

Truth. When Musk and Jerome were saying that the best service is no service in response to the 'service hell' question, it wasn't clear that they understand that no service is great, but it's only tangentially related to the question.

When you literally can't call your service center, that is the problem. When you can only use the app to make a mobile service appointment even *when you know the issue isn't mobile-serviceable*, that's the problem. When the mobile tech is not able to move you to a service appointment, that's the problem. When loaners are no longer available and your customers are offered Lyft credits, that's the problem (what happened to loaning customers cars better than their own?).

Hopefully they work on the actual problems, and realize that while designing the cars to need less service is an admirable goal, it's not a way to address the current problems.

Re: JB. That's major news, and news I wasn't looking forward to. Will have to watch Baglino more closely before I have an opinion on it...

Not a fan of this call so far.

 

[Causalien]

Anybody done any estimation on how much they need to sell to reach breakeven? is 10k/week enough?

 

[Singuy]

Objectively speaking, wouldn't that be a long's equivalent to FUDshorts moving goalposts. In the very beginning of this year, Musk expected profit in Q1, then Q2, now Q4, and that's what many here believed.

I'm not actually expecting GAAP + ever until 10 years from now because Elon said they are focusing on FCF instead during the Shareholder event.

 

[Cheburashka]

The profit margins suck. S/X demand is in a corkscrew nosedive.

Everyone forgot about service or customer satisfaction.

I guess Tesla will be profitable in Elon time.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Looks like S/X demand is not expected to recover soon - Musk is forecasting maybe 1500/week (in rough terms) by the end of the year.

I heard 1600 to 1700 (plus 8300 to 8400 Model 3, to make for a total of 10,000)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Objectively speaking, wouldn't that be a long's equivalent to FUDshorts moving goalposts. In the very beginning of this year, Musk expected profit in Q1, then Q2, now Q4, and that's what many here believed.

No. We recognize that as a failure and a negative. I’ve never seen said shorts ever admit their failures.

 

[Duffer]

I'm not thrilled by JB's departure. Though it seems to validate the rumors that he wasn't spending much time at HQ. I wish him well in his new ventures.

Hmm, now it's just a question of properly timing the max FUD to get the best deal on more shares... Tomorrow and Friday will, of course, be good buying opportunities with the "shorty" stock dump(s). However, my guess max FUD will hit early next week.

Thoughts?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Multiple Terawatt Hour

Holy

 

[ReflexFunds]

Master plan part three will be the battery day.

How do we get get from 10s of gwh per year to 2 TWhs per year?

Honestly, who can care at all about quarterly profits or deliveries over this.
Tesla is talking about announcing a clear plan to produce enough batteries for around 50% of global car demand in early 2020.

 

[Hock1]

Depends on the stock as well as your definition of "long". I started investing in Tesla in 2015. My short term trades have been paying our Tesla loan payments. My core long-term play....well, like I've been saying, a CD or index fund would've done better.
But many of my other stocks have not been the same phenomenon.

No. My advice does not depend upon the stock. If your strategy is actually working, it will, until it doesn't.