Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

So don't ever forget the stock is being and has been yuuugely manipulated, and shorted by people who aren't motivated by making money on the short itself.

For me this is a long-term buy and hold, and the bastards holding the price down are doing me a favor under this paradigm/strategy.

I used to be an options player and hated when people would crow about "cheapies" and I got stressed out by every artificial dip and fake news story. But I changed my outlook and Tesla keeps proving themselves to be outrageously ahead of the curve on pretty much everything. Eventually, the big oil money will capitulate. Could be tomorrow, could be 2025. For sheer excitement I'd kinda rather it happen sooner than later, but I literally will buy these shares at any price for the foreseeable future

 

[dc_h]

But if Tesla can get a hub going for trans-Atlantic delivery, that can shave off half of the time on the boat and save money on crossing the Panama canal.

Yeah, it doesn't seem like a sustainable option. I wonder if NAFTA trade rules allow a train to be sent from Fremont across Canada and exported to Europe from Eastern Canada? Quebec is closer to Europe then Philadelphia and Canada's train system is probably more efficient then the USA.

 

[TradingInvest]

Tesla is just insurance broker for National Group where Tesla earns commission.

Tesla plans to become a full scale car insurance business.

 

[Nocturnal]

So don't ever forget the stock is being and has been yuuugely manipulated, and shorted by people who aren't motivated by making money on the short itself.

For me this is a long-term buy and hold, and the bastards holding the price down are doing me a favor under this paradigm/strategy.

I used to be an options player and hated when people would crow about "cheapies" and I got stressed out by every artificial dip and fake news story. But I changed my outlook and Tesla keeps proving themselves to be outrageously ahead of the curve on pretty much everything. Eventually, the big oil money will capitulate. Could be tomorrow, could be 2025. For sheer excitement I'd kinda rather it happen sooner than later, but I literally will buy these shares at any price for the foreseeable future

If you believe in the Tesla story and that it will wind up at 1k, 3k etc. per share, then dips between 300 and 200 are insignificant.

 

[TradingInvest]

So with the fixed algorithm it does indeed look like Tesla is saving most people 20-30% on insurance costs per month. In many cases this is as much as $50-60 per month. For many people this insurance saving will be enough to pay for 100% of Tesla charging electricity costs. In fact using this saving people can even pay for a home Tesla solar installation on the new monthly rental contract.

This Insurance offering really is the huge deal for total cost of ownership we had hoped.

I imagine Tesla's lower prices are mainly due to accounting for the significantly decreased crash rate of its cars vs the market average, but I think the pricing also benefits from zero sales & marketing costs, and likely also zero profits. Possibly Tesla will make a profit on the insurance business, but I expect it will gain most using Tesla Insurance as a tool to increase the affordability of its cars.

All are good points. Also Tesla expects to cut down cost 50% by fixing cars in their own shops.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla says its ex-employee caused $167 million drop in its market cap
The alleged stock dip is claimed by Tesla’s expert CPA and damages analyst in an exhibit filed by Tesla this week in a pending federal lawsuit in Nevada against the former Gigafactory technician, Martin Tripp.

The filing by Tesla alleging the stock dip references two articles by Business Inisider’s Linette Lopez — one from June 4 calling Tesla’s production a “nightmare” and one from June 6 claiming its Gigafactory robots weren’t working yet.

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla sold 40k cars in California in 1H19, it is a huge market for them. Tesla have the scale in California to make insurance a profitable business quickly, then quickly expand to further states and countries. 20-30% insurance cost reduction is a very significant reduction in total cost of ownership for Tesla vehicles and should be a good demand driver for its cars.

For people in California, how does your Tesla quote compare to your current insurance cost?

What information are you using to conclude 20-30% reduction in costs for most CA people?

I’m not getting that from my own quote and those of many on these forums.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Tesla can potentially get a cost advantage on insurance rates due to the $6k FSD option not actually costing $6k to replace. Same with the P option. Thus trading off rates for gross margin on totaled vehicles, if they want. Also provides the opportunity to cut down on used aftermarket parts.

Holy cow this is a SERIOUSLY good point. Software replacement cost is zero. If 25% of your car value is the software(for example), the cost of insuring a complete write off is 25% lower than a normal car.

This is a HUGE advantage in shifting cars from hardware-bias to software-bias. Maybe not specifically a big tesla advantage until they have more software and closer to FSD, but as long as they have an edge in software, that effectively gives them an identical edge in insurance. (depending what percentage of the average insurance payout is car repairs... likely much higher outside the US where medical/legal costs of accidents are way lower).

 

[LN1_Casey]

Significantly more movement today. And steadily down after morning.

Alas, back into the red.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Canada's train system is probably more efficient then the USA.

well frankly my cat is more efficient than the USA train system so lets not get excited about that

 

[dc_h]

A couple of trains?

the trains get stuck and can take 30 or more days to cross the country. In Chicago there are still key crossings that need new bridges to bypass surface traffic.

Big improvements are due the next few years, but this is not moving at Elon type speeds.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-create-changes-getting-around-20180709-story.html

 

[Unpilot]

Significantly more movement today. And steadily down after morning.

Alas, back into the red.

I'm showing still up over $3

 

[SpaceCash]

Alas, back into the red.

wym, we are still green..?

 

[LN1_Casey]

I'm showing still up over $3

My personal portfolio is back in red from this morning. Still small potatoes compared to anyone else here, haha.

 

[UncaNed]

If you believe in the Tesla story and that it will wind up at 1k, 3k etc. per share, then dips between 300 and 200 are insignificant.

If you're buying, it's significant. Timing your buys for $200 VS. $300 gives you 50% more shares that might later sell for 1k, 3k etc. per share.

Not advice.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What information are you using to conclude 20-30% reduction in costs for most CA people?

I’m not getting that from my own quote and those of many on these forums.

For me, it's easily 20-30% lower than any other price I've been quoted by anyone other than Progressive(they're my current insurer for this reason). They're still cheaper than progressive for me, but it would remove my ability to bundle with my LEAF for a multi-car discount, making it ultimately slightly more expensive. When I get the Y, this may prove to be the cheaper option overall.

EDIT: And, looking around reddit: Tesla Insurance is Back Up : teslamotors

Looks like it's cheaper for most other people too.

 

[mrmage]

Elimination of the sales tax in China to save consumers 10% isn't exactly the same as Tesla receiving 10% more, but in the long term it should have a similar effect. Tesla can forgo up to 10% price drops in the future or raise the price gradually by 10% without impacting demand. Either way Tesla will have an extra 10% margin to play with, or ~$5k / car.

China will account for ~30% of Tesla's production in 2020, so that's the equivalent of improving their worldwide per vehicle gross margin in 2020 by $1.5k. Tesla's gross margin was only 19% last quarter, so this should boost gross margins >15% in 2020.

Anyone who believes GF3 will produce 3k cars / week should see this as improving the value of TSLA by >> 15% in 2020. The 5% jump earlier today seems understated, but dropping down to +1.5% later in the day is very surprising.

TSLA's value just increased more than 15% today, while the SP is only 1.5% higher.

 

[mongo]

Tesla says its ex-employee caused $167 million drop in its market cap
The alleged stock dip is claimed by Tesla’s expert CPA and damages analyst in an exhibit filed by Tesla this week in a pending federal lawsuit in Nevada against the former Gigafactory technician, Martin Tripp.

The filing by Tesla alleging the stock dip references two articles by Business Inisider’s Linette Lopez — one from June 4 calling Tesla’s production a “nightmare” and one from June 6 claiming its Gigafactory robots weren’t working yet.

Humm, at 176 million shares, I guess the buck stopped there?

Holy cow this is a SERIOUSLY good point. Software replacement cost is zero. If 25% of your car value is the software(for example), the cost of insuring a complete write off is 25% lower than a normal car.

Yah, but only if you're the company with the software.
Upside is lower premiums to owners. Downside is not pocketing the markup on the replacement car. Theoretically, those should offset so the big savings is avoiding accidents to begin with.

 

[KSilver2000]

For me, it's easily 20-30% lower than any other price I've been quoted by anyone other than Progressive(they're my current insurer for this reason). They're still cheaper than progressive for me, but it would remove my ability to bundle with my LEAF for a multi-car discount, making it ultimately slightly more expensive. When I get the Y, this may prove to be the cheaper option overall.

EDIT: And, looking around reddit: Tesla Insurance is Back Up : teslamotors

Looks like it's cheaper for most other people too.

I looked through those posts.
Looks like the majority of people who got cheaper quotes than their current carriers are those with Geico. Who the heck pays $2-3K/yr for Geico just for a Tesla? Must have a bad driving record.

It’s still more expensive for me compared to my AAA. Also, I noticed you have to make sure the coverage options are adjusted. The new algorithm is also cheaper because Tesla lowered most, if not all, coverage levels by default from the initial algorithm (though still cheaper than originally).

 

[kengchang]

I looked through those posts.
Looks like the majority of people who got cheaper quotes than their current carriers are those with Geico. Who the heck pays $2-3K/yr for Geico just for a Tesla? Must have a bad driving record.

It’s still more expensive for me compared to my AAA. Also, I noticed you have to make sure the coverage options are adjusted. The new algorithm is also cheaper because Tesla lowered most, if not all, coverage levels by default from the initial algorithm (though still cheaper than originally).

The rate will definitely be cheaper if I can get Multi policy/car discount onto there.