Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I just checked - not available in the US or Canada, only Europe. Hopefully that changes. If it were available, you'd see it in the bottom right on this page:

View attachment 449444

Until then, people in the US and Canada at least have EcoHitches.

Can anyone think of a good reason why a tow-hitch isn't available for all territories?

I mean I have one direct example of a friend who waited until it was available here in Europe before ordering - there must be others.

 

[EVNow]

Funny that...

So they have (non-enhanced) Summon. Which Tesla released in January of 2016.

@acoste IIRC, those parkings in airports etc need special hardware to be installed in the parking garage.

 

[Tslynk67]

Most popular cars sold in August compared to last August in Norway

First two columns are for August labeled "denne mnd". Next two "hittil" for accumulated in 2019.

The TM3 is #1 accumulated but was beaten by the VW Golf in August. Some of those Golf models were the e-Golf.

Interactive Source: Registreringsstatistikken – Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken

These figures prove, to me anyway, that Europeans love hatchbacks. Why else would Norwegians still be buying ICE in a country that heavily taxes them and has EV charging everywhere, along with a host of other benefits?

 

[Doggydogworld]

View attachment 449477

Source: Tesla Revenue 2009-2019 | TSLA

Going to be an interesting Q3-Q4/2019 End-of-Q and Earnings report. About 3 times has there been a significant jump in revenue between Q2->Q3 (w/ a follow-along stock price movement):

2012: Model S (at production scale) - Stock price jumps Q2/Q3 - 2013 (a year after Tesla proved consistent production)
2016: Model X (at production scale) - Stock price jumps Q1/Q2 - 2017 (6-months after Tesla proved consistent production)
2018: Model 3 (at production scale) - Stock price jumps Q4 - 2018 (a year after Tesla proved consistent production)

This is the first time where Tesla has incorporated a completely new factory, China, as a jump step increase in production (while continuous production improvements in the current factories) for a current and existing product. GF1 was batteries. GF2 was for solar roof + solar. At first, Tesla houses for a specific model or product (or set of)...then seems to mix in other products, if possible. Happy to be incorrect, just a perspective (happy to be wrong too). Think this factory is going to show production and cost efficiencies that haven't been seen with other factories that have come online.

You expect a "significant jump in revenue" in Q3/Q4? You realize Q3 will likely be negative Y/Y, right? (First red bar on your bottom graph in 7 years). Q4 has a better chance of being positive, but still not guaranteed.

 

[goinfraftw]

You expect a "significant jump in revenue" in Q3/Q4? You realize Q3 will likely be negative Y/Y, right? (First red bar on your bottom graph in 7 years). Q4 has a better chance of being positive, but still not guaranteed.

I expect Q4 to have a significant jump than expected due to GF3 in China scaling up. Both Q’s will be interesting (I’m not leaning towards either direction in Q3 w/o more info when I say “interesting”) to see how the company is operating.

I’m a long-term hold, so major initiatives going online and to production is always interesting to see. Shows whether the org is operating well or not...and helps me, as an investor, to determine how to value and act upon my investment.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - hour ago: U.S. stock futures weaken as tariffs go into effect

 

[VValleyEV]

Some adoption curve news that I think bodes well for Tesla futures:

My wife was tolerant of my MS purchase last year, yet very skeptical of the practicality of a BEV, availability of charging infrastructure, and especially skeptical of all the screen tech stuff, even though she is a retired software developer. Lots of complaints about what is wrong with physical buttons, so much easier to find and use with looking away from the highway. And OMG that Model 3 has just the screen, how ugly and crazy is that.

Fast forward to last week when she suddenly decided she is tired of the Jeep Rubicon 2Dr, doesn’t do much off-roading these days, and wants a standard passenger car for her own trips. Big surprise, she wants a BEV, tired of all that gas pumping and smell. Bigger surprise, I said well I suppose it will be a Leaf or Bolt then, she said no it has to be a Tesla. She took a test drive in the Model 3 that afternoon and loves it so much that she wants it yesterday, why do I have to wait 2-3 weeks etc.

I am of course delighted to have an all-electric fleet, infrastructure is already there, and might even get to drive her M3 once in a great while. Also both cars will be FSD, so as we get crappier at driving, the cars both get better, and I am really happy she will be driving one of the safest cars on the planet.

 

[dc_h]

It’s a small website called TMC, you may have heard of it: Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Looking at the numbers for Europe to date, can Tesla deliver many more cars then Q2? Only 2 full ships delivered and a 3rd finished unloading on August 29th. Seems like the 1st 3 ships will be about 12,000 cars. 4 more ships, including Philadelphia. Could they really average 4000 per shipment? If they are shipping closer to 4000 per load, they could get close to 28,000. Unless there have been other shipments from Oakland or elsewhere we don’t know about, 28,000 seems like the logistics limit.
Would be nice if they could get a second berth at port 80. If they raise output from the plant, they need more options to ship cars out faster. If they had a second berth they could, in theory do smaller loads direct to Norway and UK and reduce Zeebrudge dependence.

 

[bhtooefr]

Re: tow packages, note that there would be differences in a US tow package.

• I was under the impression that the European tow package was produced locally in Europe and installed at port, so Tesla would need to get an American supplier for it.
• In the US, you'd want a 1 7/8" and 2" ball options, whereas in Europe 50 mm is the standard.
• Braking is done differently - surge brakes are AFAIK mandated in most of the EU, whereas surge brakes are unpopular here, and electric brakes (which need a separate controller, and wiring to the dashboard for it) are common for heavier trailers in the US.
• Additionally, our trailer electrics are done differently - instead of a 13-pin ISO 11446 connector with a lot more signals, our common connectors are a 4-pin flat connector (with turn signals and brake lights combined, as is common in many vehicles here, but needs a light controller for many modern vehicles), a 6-pin round connector (which adds reverse lights and electric braking support), and a 7-pin round connector with blade contacts (which adds an auxiliary +12 volt line for RVs to charge house batteries).

Additionally, as it's not illegal in the US to tow without a tow rating (you can be found liable if it results in property damage or injury/death though), and the manufacturer doesn't need to equip a vehicle with a tow package to declare a tow rating, there's less incentive for a car manufacturer to bother supplying a kit, instead of just providing a place for an aftermarket kit to hook up.

And, as Americans tow at higher speeds (faster than 50 MPH), we need more tongue weight (10-15%) to get safe towing, so the few cars that still have tow ratings tend to only allow 1000 lbs, as they're tongue weight limited. Everyone that wants more tow rating ends up getting forced up into a SUV or a pickup (either using the bed instead of a trailer, or towing the heavier trailer). Or, you just put a "2000 pound" (Class I) aftermarket hitch on (and those exist for the Model 3), disregard the vehicle's tow rating of zero or 1000 lbs, and just hope for the best (and know that all sorts of warranties will be effectively voided).

 

[Christine69420]

These figures prove, to me anyway, that Europeans love hatchbacks. Why else would Norwegians still be buying ICE in a country that heavily taxes them and has EV charging everywhere, along with a host of other benefits?

Love not only hatchbacks, smaller SUVs too. So Y please!

In Norway it's not all rosy red from a EV perspective. People in Finnmark in northern Norway have no chargers - only at homes - and a few hotels will let you plug in a mains socket. But you cannot drive very far - and still some rebels have bought Teslas. I hope they are rewarded with a couple of superchargers soon!

And then there is the education part. People buy ICE because there are no chargers close to where they live. It's hard to understand that you mostly charge at home.

And all the FUD about Tesla and EVs - our papers love to write those stories too - since I guess people click on them.

 

[Lessmog]

Both those videos have a strange kind of sneezing sound apparently coming from the automated autos.
Can we be sure that those are indeed unmanned and not some kind of resuscitated Chess Turk from the 1700's?
I'll probably wait for corroboration from some independent, reputable British channel. Oh, wait -- wait? How long?

 

[JusRelax]

Watch the Porsche Taycan make a 0-90-0 test run on the USS Hornet flight deck – TechCrunch

Porsche marketing is working hard and doing good work. It just keeps coming. Tesla should have done more stuff like this.

View attachment 449466

Hmmm... sounds like they were going for 0-100-0 but there ended up not being enough room on the ship for it, so they settled for 0-90-0. I have no idea if the 0-90-0 in 10.7sec is a good time or not since I don't follow 0-100-0 times, but the S P100D can apparently go 0-100-0 in 10.2 seconds, faster than the Taycan can do 0-90-0:

The 2017 Tesla Model S P100D and the 0-100-0 Test - MotorTrend

I wonder if the S P100D could have done a 0-100-0 test on the ship?

 

[acoste]

Funny that...

So they have (non-enhanced) Summon. Which Tesla released in January of 2016.

I hope they will come out with the final version of any kind of self driving instead of betas even if it takes longer.

Meanwhile something more useful:

 

[acoste]

@acoste IIRC, those parkings in airports etc need special hardware to be installed in the parking garage.

Isn't that for the Mercedes? See the Bosch devices all around

BMW was recorded in this parking garage (it's not at the airport):
Google Maps

 

[acoste]

Both those videos have a strange kind of sneezing sound apparently coming from the automated autos.
Can we be sure that those are indeed unmanned and not some kind of resuscitated Chess Turk from the 1700's?
I'll probably wait for corroboration from some independent, reputable British channel. Oh, wait -- wait? How long?

Here is their most advanced Chess Turk:

 

[hobbes]

I was going to ask if the Germans were being naughty again but decided to let it slide.

O.k., let me make this more precise: For the context of the accident, it doesn´t matter in which country Brussels is. Man, really got to watch what you write !

 

[Buckminster]

I have seen 3 M3s in UK over past 7 days. None previously.

 

[azaz]

Watch the Porsche Taycan make a 0-90-0 test run on the USS Hornet flight deck – TechCrunch

Porsche marketing is working hard and doing good work. It just keeps coming. Tesla should have done more stuff like this.

View attachment 449466

Tesla marketing could be so much better with stuff like this and would help raise ASP

 

[hobbes]

Watch the Porsche Taycan make a 0-90-0 test run on the USS Hornet flight deck – TechCrunch

Porsche marketing is working hard and doing good work. It just keeps coming. Tesla should have done more stuff like this.

View attachment 449466

I like this. But Tesla did good videos, too, like this one, which is pretty much on par:

 

[hobbes]

Looking at the numbers for Europe to date, can Tesla deliver many more cars then Q2? Only 2 full ships delivered and a 3rd finished unloading on August 29th. Seems like the 1st 3 ships will be about 12,000 cars. 4 more ships, including Philadelphia. Could they really average 4000 per shipment? If they are shipping closer to 4000 per load, they could get close to 28,000. Unless there have been other shipments from Oakland or elsewhere we don’t know about, 28,000 seems like the logistics limit.
Would be nice if they could get a second berth at port 80. If they raise output from the plant, they need more options to ship cars out faster. If they had a second berth they could, in theory do smaller loads direct to Norway and UK and reduce Zeebrudge dependence.

They did start to truck to Philadelphia and ship from there, to save time:
For faster deliveries to the UK & Europe, Tesla is moving Model 3s to the Port of Philadelphia
Port of Philadelphia on Twitter