Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jim Holder]

There are now so many posters like this, who do nothing but post negative-spun FUD, that its ridiculous. Do they think they are moving the stock to profit from shorting? I just dont get why people spend SO MUCH TIME on an investment forum dedicated to a company they hate so much. Maybe try finding something you LIKE and go invest in that? Surely thats less stress, and makes you a happier person?
Like I said before, I hate Apple and think the stock is doomed. It would be WEIRD for me to spend all day on an apple investor forum saying so. What would be the point???

IMO Occam’s Razor says they are being paid nicely per negative post by someone.

I also stopped coming here as often as I used to due to the massive increase in rank negativity from just 4-5 posters who are constantly and relentlessly negative on anything Tesla related.

It’s one thing for a poster to point out a legitimate issue and be open for discussion. It’s another to sit and write dozens of posts of solely negative and outright exaggerations and lies, almost as if celebrating any dark and stormy news and anything miserable about lofty share issues.

I’m actually surprised many of them are allowed to post here still. They are certainly not contributing anything useful.

SMH

 

[cab]

I continue to hear and read about all of the concerns about Elon and his actions (past and present). Indeed, I can't defend at least a subset of them without coming across as a total fan boy. Ultimately though, it's simple for me (albeit a little tense)...I believe Tesla is better off WITH Elon than without him. Oh...and I 1000% believe Tesla's competitors (in any number of industries) feel EXACTLY the same way...and would LOVE to see him bail.

 

[samn]

IMO Occam’s Razor says they are being paid nicely per negative post by someone.

I also stopped coming here as often as I used to due to the massive increase in rank negativity from just 4-5 posters who are constantly and relentlessly negative on anything Tesla related.

It’s one thing for a poster to point out a legitimate issue and be open for discussion. It’s another to sit and write dozens of posts of solely negative and outright exaggerations and lies, almost as if celebrating any dark and stormy news and anything miserable about lofty share issues.

I’m actually surprised many of them are allowed to post here still. They are certainly not contributing anything useful.

SMH

I agree. I've recently started using blocks for the first time in years. Unfortunately when people reply to these negative Nancies I see the replies even though the original posts were blocked.

 

[Jim Holder]

I agree. I've recently started using blocks for the first time in years. Unfortunately when people reply to these negative Nancies I see the replies even though the original posts were blocked.

Yep, the block/ignore function implementation isn’t really helpful. The blocked/ignored posts still take up space as we scroll and as you said, show up in replies. It would be great if blocked users wouldn’t show up at all.

Meanwhile I just use the old-fashioned way to avoid the poisonous atmosphere: I stopped coming around, except once in a while I don my HazMat suite and tip-toe in to catch up.

 

[NicoV]

Jen-Sen getting superstar attitudes: Here’s Jensen Huang signing a woman’s chest

Imagine Elon doing this!

 

[alexxs88]

There are a few odd things about the news regarding xAI swapping Nvidia shipments with Tesla:
1. If Tesla isn't compute constrained anymore, what are they planning to do with the extra AI compute power? Getting extra "just in case" makes sense if you're a tech company with huge cash reserves and no capital-intensive R&D plans like Google or Microsoft, but Tesla? Tesla just fired a significant chunk of its workforce and put on hold big growth projects because of the lack of resources.

2. On the same line, why didn't they just sell their position in the queue? Companies are fighting over getting higher in the Nvidia queue, it doesn't make any financial sense to give up something as valuable as this and get nothing in return.

PS: I wish people wouldn't just add the cars' inference capability to some sort of total Tesla compute power. It's daft, for multiple reasons. First one is that no other company is doing it. It'd be like Apple adding your phone's AI compute or Microsoft your laptop's / PC's. Not to mention the technical limitations to actually using that inference power for a 3rd party.

 

[2Pearls]

IMO Occam’s Razor says they are being paid nicely per negative post by someone.

I also stopped coming here as often as I used to due to the massive increase in rank negativity from just 4-5 posters who are constantly and relentlessly negative on anything Tesla related.

It’s one thing for a poster to point out a legitimate issue and be open for discussion. It’s another to sit and write dozens of posts of solely negative and outright exaggerations and lies, almost as if celebrating any dark and stormy news and anything miserable about lofty share issues.

I’m actually surprised many of them are allowed to post here still. They are certainly not contributing anything useful.

SMH

I see what you did there...clever!

 

[Chartered321]

When are we going to have the results of 13th June's vote? I'm sick and tired of this lack of volatilty..

 

[EVMeister]

When are we going to have the results of 13th June's vote? I'm sick and tired of this lack of volatilty..

13th June.

 

[insaneoctane]

Interesting SP analysis. Miss when we had more of these on this thread...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797963806045552786

 

[cliff harris]

I don't think anyone should do a spec compare of the semi with any competitors without discussing FSD. For a long time it was assumed that the first place society would see driverless vehicles would be big trucks. They go mostly on highways, not in traffic, on very predictable routes. Not only that, but the economics of trucking are very tight, and the drivers are a noticeable chunk of the cost.
Even before anybody allows a Tesla semi to be totally autonomous, I can definitely see three developments:

1) Drivers will only want to work for companies offering FSD, because it makes their job so much easier
2) Companies will lobby for changes to maximum driving hours, given that supervising FSD is way less tiring than actually driving.
3) Truck companies will only invest in trucks like the semi, which have a clear path to autonomy. Everything else will become a stranded asset.

FSD changes everything, including the semi. I don't see anyone beating to Tesla to it, so I don't see anyone threatening the semi business. In a year or so we will be happily watching drone flyovers showing semi production, just as we can do cybertruck production now, and the usual suspects will move on to saying the model 2 will never happen, or the bot will never happen.

 

[CitizenKane]

Interesting SP analysis. Miss when we had more of these on this thread...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797963806045552786

Lost me after 30 secs when he wrote that P/E 65 is conservative.

 

[alexxs88]

Lost me after 30 secs when he wrote that P/E 65 is conservative.

Makes no financial sense. A high P/E implies future growth, while his model already has most of the growth already happening by 2030.
Also, with these type of "projections", it's always good to look at the track record:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575489890849943555

 

[Singuy]

Makes no financial sense. A high P/E implies future growth, while his model already has most of the growth already happening by 2030.
Also, with these type of "projections", it's always good to look at the track record:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575489890849943555

Costco has a PE of 51 with single digit percentage growth in some years and teens percentage growth in others. High PE implies you are the disruptor and low PE implies you are waiting for disruption to take you out. Has some correlation to growth...maybe...

 

[CitizenKane]

Costco has a PE of 51 with single digit percentage growth in some years and teens percentage growth in others. High PE implies you are the disruptor and low PE implies you are waiting for disruption to take you out. Has some correlation to growth...maybe...

Being a disruptor or being subject to disruption is only relevant to the extent that affects your future cashflows / profits. P/E is simple maths, if you are paying 51 USD to be an owner of 1 USD in profits, you better feel rather sure profits will rise quickly in the future, otherwise you'll wait 51 years until you'll have the money invested back.

 

[lascavarian]

Ron Baron will be on CNBC this morning. Tesla bound to come up.

 

[spacerfc]

What TSLA investors should get from this Lora Kolodny hit piece is how unique Tesla is and how valuable Elon is to Tesla.

Like, are there any other car companies buying tens of thousands of H100s? Do other auto CEOs even know what a H100 is?

I wouldn't be surprised the total # of H100s owned by all the other auto companies combined is approximately zero.

People are worrying about some minor logistics change instead of seeing the big picture.

 

[unk45]

Volvo Trucks retained its strong position in the electric truck market with total global deliveries of 1,977 electric trucks during 2023, an increase of 256 percent compared to the previous year. Volvo’s share of the electric heavy-duty segment in Europe increased to 47.2 percent (32.3 percent). It says that this number is Class 7 and above.

They delivered 145k total semis.

edit: It looks like most are delivering.

10,265 medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks were deployed across the U.S. in 2023, according to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund, a big increase from 1,948 deployments the previous year.

edit: It's hard to parse this out, they are including garbage trucks and everything (not light duty/consumer trucks). Mack and Volvo seem to be leading the way.

That’s logical Mack is owned by Volvo.

Our electric truck range

We’re here to make your shift to electric as smooth as possible: from helping you choose the right electric truck to planning range and securing deliveries.

www.volvotrucks.com

LR Electric | Mack Trucks

The Mack LR Electric delivers the same comfort, visibility and reliability as the diesel-powered LR, but with lower maintenance costs, reduced noise and zero carbon emissions.

www.macktrucks.com

None have the Tesla range. They are, however, constantly improving and have great success in shorter ranges. In smaller trucks all the best selling EU delivery vans have electric ones including Ford, Stellantis (Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Ram, etc) has them in all their brands.

In context most trucks are used in short range urban settings, next medium range interurban. Long range are Tesla focus but not yet for the others. They are coming, but the volume in centered squarely where Ford, Stellantis, Mercedes and VW are currently selling. Mostly urban vans, but also up to class 6 plus specialties like garbage and busses, where most of those also operate. Of course BYD in in every segment and growing fast.

Tesla is the only one to focus only on the smallest segment, OTR class 8.

 

[spacerfc]

There are a few odd things about the news regarding xAI swapping Nvidia shipments with Tesla:
1. If Tesla isn't compute constrained anymore, what are they planning to do with the extra AI compute power?

Many things, bigger model, more training data, training the same model longer to get better result, faster iteration, fine tuning for different countries, trying out new model architecture, etc.

Getting extra "just in case" makes sense if you're a tech company with huge cash reserves and no capital-intensive R&D plans like Google or Microsoft, but Tesla?

If you think Google and Microsoft are buying H100s for "just in case", you don't know AI at all.

Tesla just fired a significant chunk of its workforce and put on hold big growth projects because of the lack of resources.

Tesla did all that precisely because they need the cash to invest in compute.

2. On the same line, why didn't they just sell their position in the queue?

If they sell their position, they'd lost it and have to start from the end of the queue. That's assuming the position can even be sold in the first place.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Energy news in China:

1. BYD providing 8GWh of batteries to Megapacktory Shanghai (CATL providing the other 32GWh); they will be supplied to Tesla at near BYD's cost:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798309283081474375

2. The cells supplied by BYD/BYD subsidiary are scheduled to being delivery in Q1 2025, another sign that Megapacktory Shanghai intends to be ready to start building Megapacks in Q1 2025:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798229792061640812