Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Some MF drove the Taycan, and started buying TSLA

More likely, they had to charge it. Even if they can use their 150kw charger my back of the envelope estimate is 40% longer charging than a model 3 on a v2 charger for the same number of miles added. In the future they might get 270w chargers, but compared to a model 3 on v3, it would take 60% longer. Yeah, I'd be upset.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Indeed. In the beginning 5 short blocks and now again 5 short blocks. Manipulation at it's best.

I'm more interested in if the buying resumes after those bunches of sell orders. Seems like for the entire year of 2019, any buying volume could easily get squashed by these bunches of sell orders. I'm looking for when that pattern fundamentally changes

 

[loco]

You're supposed to (at least where we are). Right to exit the circle (our circles are counterclockwise), left if you're in the outermost lane and plan to stay on for more than one exit.

To understand turn signals at roundabouts it's best to imagine they're straight roads. Cut the circle somewhere and stretch it. Then you'll see that turn signal at exit (junction) is correct, but no turn signal to remain in your lane.

 

[AlexS]

Not all of them

yeah, but I can say with confidence it is not Carlos Lago behind edmunds twitter account lately

 

[sdtslafan]

I think today's rise really has something to do with what we found out yesterday from Porsche. Somewhat of a delayed reaction as is typical with the market. The Taycan starting at $150K meaning realistically 170-180K with taxes and upgrades is not competition for Tesla in a meaningful way. Very very few people are willing to pay this much and the numbers will further dwindle if a recession hits. If Tesla wants to compete on this level, they can push out the Roadster a little soon and that will annihilate the Taycan. Of course Porsche is saying that they will push out lower end variants but how much range will those have, 150 miles which is completely inadequate? Overall, the impression I get is that Porsche is not a big threat at this time. Maybe the Audi Etron is a threat? - I have to do more research. One thing Tesla does have to do is do an exterior refresh of the S that will bring back the buyers. IF you told me 2 years that Model S/X would be less than 100K sales / year in a good economy, I wouldn't have believed it. But people get tired of the same thing regardless how fantastic - even a minor exterior refresh would go a long way.

 

[StealthP3D]

I hope this does a little to quell the "Q3 production start" crowd. Progress is amazing but there's clearly more to do.

Really? There's still more to do? Who would have thunk?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Man, the Fording MM are sure trying their best to keep the SP under 230. But it just keeps coming back in.

I think it'll struggle to go much beyond 230 today since there is a lot of open calls at 230 (and 225) based on @Papafox's graph about open calls/puts. I further don't think it'll go close to 235, since then the calls of 225, 230, and 235 would all be trying to squish it back down.

But if it pops that resistance...

 

[Swampgator]

I think today's rise really has something to do with what we found out yesterday from Porsche. Somewhat of a delayed reaction as is typical with the market. The Taycan starting at $150K meaning realistically 170-180K with taxes and upgrades is not competition for Tesla in a meaningful way. Very very few people are willing to pay this much and the numbers will further dwindle if a recession hits. If Tesla wants to compete on this level, they can push out the Roadster a little soon and that will annihilate the Taycan. Of course Porsche is saying that they will push out lower end variants but how much range will those have, 150 miles which is completely inadequate? Overall, the impression I get is that Porsche is not a big threat at this time. Maybe the Audi Etron is a threat? - I have to do more research. One thing Tesla does have to do is do an exterior refresh of the S that will bring back the buyers. IF you told me 2 years that Model S/X would be less than 100K sales / year in a good economy, I wouldn't have believed it. But people get tired of the same thing regardless how fantastic - even a minor exterior refresh would go a long way.

I think that, and also this signals that the major OEMs are unable to compete with Tesla directly. And that appears to be ALL OEMs.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think today's rise really has something to do with what we found out yesterday from Porsche. Somewhat of a delayed reaction as is typical with the market. The Taycan starting at $150K meaning realistically 170-180K with taxes and upgrades is not competition for Tesla in a meaningful way. Very very few people are willing to pay this much and the numbers will further dwindle if a recession hits.

I'm thinking a recession at this point in time is pretty unlikely. And you might be surprised how many are willing to pay $170-$180K for a totally amazing all-electric Porsche. Unfortunately, not only is it not totally amazing, it's not even close! Very few will be willing to pay that kind of money for a car that is not even as good as a P3D in most important respects, regardless that it has a Porsche badge.

 

[Navin]

The great thing about Porsche is they created an electric car this is sexy but that no one will be buy in volume. It helps Knock out one of the short bullets about Ice being more favorable in all cases.

 

[elasalle]

I think that, and also this signals that the major OEMs are unable to compete with Tesla directly. And that appears to be ALL OEMs.

With Taycan reveal, list of Tesla Killers got exhausted for sure ...

 

[AlexS]

Edmunds removed tslaq retweet and likes they had on tslaq posts on twitter.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm thinking a recession at this point in time is pretty unlikely. And you might be surprised how many are willing to pay $170-$180K for a totally amazing all-electric Porsche. Unfortunately, not only is it not totally amazing, it's not even close! Very few will be willing to pay that kind of money for a car that is not even as good as a P3D in most important respects, regardless that it has a Porsche badge.

There will always be Porsche die hard fans....but if Tesla can start producing the Roadster by Q4 2020, Taycan really is dead. If Tesla does the S/X refresh in Q1 12020, Taycan is also dead. If Tesla does Roadster by Q4 2020 & S/X refresh by Q1 2020 the not only is the Taycan dead but Porsche's entire lineup and the company as a whole is seriously threatened. Porsche exec's have gotta be sweating bullets at the response so far from the reveal.

 

[Lessmog]

You always use the blinker in Australia, in fact sometimes you use it twice. If you are taking the 3+ exit you indicate you are turning left then just before you leave the roundabout you flick to the right blinker to indicate you are leaving the roundabout.

Paint me Confucius, but if you are driving like that I think you are either

1. not in Australia,
   
2. going the wrong way, or
   
3. driving upside down.

Of course, you could be out of blinker oil as TB is wont to say. But that is not the biggest problem here.

 

[StealthP3D]

There will always be Porsche die hard fans....but if Tesla can start producing the Roadster by Q4 2020, Taycan really is dead. If Tesla does the S/X refresh in Q1 12020, Taycan is also dead. If Tesla does Roadster by Q4 2020 & S/X refresh by Q1 2020 the not only is the Taycan dead but Porsche's entire lineup and the company as a whole is seriously threatened. Porsche exec's have gotta be sweating bullets at the response so far from the reveal.

If Tesla does nothing different, Taycan really is dead. It won't do 1/10th the volume of their already low volume ICE offerings. Which is unfortunate, I was hoping they were going to release a compelling sporty EV at a reasonable price point.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I do for exciting the roundabout to let other the sake of other cars wanting to enter.

If you really want to excite the roundabout, tickle it in a sensitive spot

 

[Lessmog]

If you really want to excite the roundabout, tickle it in a sensitive spot

Yeah, that's the roundabout seduction -- not the Trumpian way.

 

[Zero CO2]

Model 3 Battery Teardown Slides just watched a good webinar they constantly stressed the M3 battery design advantages this to me represents the facts behind Teslas lead over other OEMs

 

[Zero CO2]

Model 3 Battery Teardown Slides just watched a good webinar they constantly stressed the M3 battery design advantages this to me represents the facts behind Teslas lead over other OEMs

one negative is the ability to easily recycle the M3 battery due to the glue

 

[FreqFlyer]

There will always be Porsche die hard fans....but if Tesla can start producing the Roadster by Q4 2020, Taycan really is dead. If Tesla does the S/X refresh in Q1 12020, Taycan is also dead. If Tesla does Roadster by Q4 2020 & S/X refresh by Q1 2020 the not only is the Taycan dead but Porsche's entire lineup and the company as a whole is seriously threatened. Porsche exec's have gotta be sweating bullets at the response so far from the reveal.

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.