Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I don't want to take this conversation too much into Brexit - but a lot of people (including Labor) are playing all sorts of games.

Purely in terms of who gets benefitted most - Boris by calling immediate election and Corbyn by avoiding a no deal and having an election later.

The issue is that nobody trusts the BJ. Risk is that if they were to accept an early election on 15/10 (that's 10/15 for those in 3rd-World countries) prior to the "no to no-deal Brexit" bill becoming law, then the PM (BJ) would somehow wangle the election date until after the current Brexit date of 31/10 (10/31).

So it's not subterfuge by the opposition, it's fear of subterfuge by the current Prime Minister who has, to be frank, quite a track record, and is actually a very logical stance.

And to be even more clear, the Labour party aren't trying to block Brexit, rather they don't accept a no-deal Brexit, and rightly so. The deal negotiated by Theresa May and the EU is as good as it gets, and if they really want to go through with it, do it on these terms.

 

[tschmidty]

Blah, blah, something about blinkers and roundabouts, so glad we just had 40 posts about them.

It would be really nice if we could have a reaction option of 'off topic' that we could hide topics > whatever threshold you set. Moderators would only then have to police users abusing the option.

How about we talk about how Robinhood still hasn't credited money I initiated last Friday even though it left my bank account on Monday? Meaning I missed the $220 I could have gotten some shares at this morning.

 

[EVNow]

The issue is that nobody trusts the BJ. Risk is that if they were to accept an early election on 15/10 (that's 10/15 for those in 3rd-World countries) prior to the "no to no-deal Brexit" bill becoming law, then the PM (BJ) would somehow wangle the election date until after the current Brexit date of 31/10 (10/31).

So it's not subterfuge by the opposition, it's fear of subterfuge by the current Prime Minister who has, to be frank, quite a track record, and is actually a very logical stance.

And to be even more clear, the Labour party aren't trying to block Brexit, rather they don't accept a no-deal Brexit, and rightly so. The deal negotiated by Theresa May and the EU is as good as it gets, and if they really want to go through with it, do it on these terms.

Laura Kuenssberg on Twitter

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak

A senior Labour MP has just said Jeremy Corbyn told him tonight he would NOT allow Boris Johnson to have an election before 31st October
​

Important thing to note is that Johnson will be in a much stronger position in an election before Oct 31st, than one after - even if we assume he actually holds it before 31st. I'm sure labor knows this, if even a distant observer like me can figure this out. Johnson wants to get all Brexit votes and hope the remain votes get split. A much better strategy for Labor is to make Johnson fail at his target of Brexit by Oct 31st and then have him face the election - where they would hope Brexit party splits the Brexit vote with Tories.

 

[Nocturnal]

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.

I can't say I follow that logic.

 

[The Accountant]

does somebody know if there is a thread/sheet with the sales numbers for month 1 & 2 of Q3? with the main countries? NL, NO, BE, DE, USA etc? (where the numbers are verifiable)

Look here for the European numbers:
Tesla Europe Registration Stats

 

[humbaba]

So the thing is, the Porsche Taycan is primarily competing with the Porsche Panamera, which has the following specs with the most expensive engine:

• Porsche Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid Sport Turismo 0-60 – 3.2 seconds

The Taycan is beating that with 2.8 seconds, but doesn't come close to the 2.2 seconds of a Model S P100 Ludicrous.

An entirely rational decision by Porsche buyers would be to:

1. Not buy a Panamera, because the Taycan is faster and sexier,
2. many of them won't buy the Taycan either, because when comparing it to the other top EV: a Tesla accelerates better, has higher top speed and almost twice the range,
3. not to mention expected first generation technical problems: Porsche might have 100 years history as an ICE engine maker, but is otherwise an EV virgin.
   
4. (Probably less than 5% of Porsche buyers are using them on the tracks, so track performance does not matter, even if they have 4 vomit bags installed for the experience. )

So what would a large chunk of Porsche buyers do, even if they don't want a Tesla for some reason? Defer the purchase and wait. I think Porsche dealers are going to find it harder now to convince their customers to buy the ICE version.

And that's the biggest nightmare of ICE carmakers: cannibalization and Osborning.

But if there's an ICE carmaker on the planet that could in principle survive the conversion to EVs, it's Porsche with their high margins, very high customer satisfaction and brand recognition. I'm very curious of the next 2 years of Porsche sales.

I think that they may convert at least some Panamera purchases to Taycan. First, they are deceiving purchasers as to the actual range and second, it may not matter if it is not a daily driver or used for trips.

Also, despite previous comments about charging being a profit center I noticed that they are offering free charging which could soften the efficiency blow a bit.

I do disagree about the importance of track performance. Certainly far fewer than 99% of Tesla Model 3 owners would try and track their car -- yet Tesla went to the trouble of designing a track mode. For a Porsche buyer part of the brand image is the trackability of the car. Although of course it is being used primarily as a bash against Tesla* I think the reason Porsche went to the effort was to reassure buyers that anything they've heard about EVs not being trackable doesn't apply to the Taycan.

* Why? I think Porsche very much wants to cast this as an EV vs EV buyer decision. They don't really want to contemplate losing Panamera sales to the Taycan. They can't change reality, but they can distract and I think that is what they are doing. At the very least they want to avoid the perception that they are cannibalizing their own sales -- even if that becomes obvious from their sales figures.

 

[Pezpunk]

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.

Why do you think they'll sell just as many first-year zero-infrastructure EVs as they will their equivalent well-established gas model? Is there another (non-Tesla) brand that has managed to do that? I find it hard to believe the Taycan will instantly outsell the 911.

Although if they do manage that, wow! The world is more ready to switch to EVs than even I realize, and that'd be great news.

 

[Tslynk67]

Laura Kuenssberg on Twitter

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak

A senior Labour MP has just said Jeremy Corbyn told him tonight he would NOT allow Boris Johnson to have an election before 31st October
​

Important thing to note is that Johnson will be in a much stronger position in an election before Oct 31st, than one after - even if we assume he actually holds it before 31st. I'm sure labor knows this, if even a distant observer like me can figure this out. Johnson wants to get all Brexit votes and hope the remain votes get split. A much better strategy for Labor is to make Johnson fail at his target of Brexit by Oct 31st and then have him face the election - where they would hope Brexit party splits the Brexit vote with Tories.

Indeed, but Labour and Lib Dems risk splitting the remain vote, so might be a good idea if they enter into a pact. Note that the idiot Farrage has also suggested a Tory/Brexit pact to BJ.

TBH, these days I don't see much air between the Tory and Brexit parties anyway.

 

[EVNow]

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.

That's like saying Nissan can sell as many Leafs as similarly priced Altima.

 

[Fact Checking]

Important thing to note is that Johnson will be in a much stronger position in an election before Oct 31st, than one after - even if we assume he actually holds it before 31st. I'm sure labor knows this, if even a distant observer like me can figure this out. Johnson wants to get all Brexit votes and hope the remain votes get split.

Not just that, the hard-BRExit horrors will potentially begin a few weeks after no-deal October 31:

• food rationing,
• gasoline rationing (an opening here for EV makers BTW.),
• medicine shortages,
• panic buying might exacerbate these,
• Irish truckers might block food imports from Ireland,
• prioritizing imports over exports (a necessity given the significantly lower than required transportation bandwidth and the lack of target markets with a valid trade deal) means export oriented industries might reach depression levels,
• demonstrations and blockages by truckers, farmers and fishers, social unrest. The UK might not have many guns in private hands, but there's plenty of gasoline to throw around, as the poorest will be hit the hardest, and it's them who cannot hoard supplies in advance.

Winter time BRExit is pretty much a worst-case scenario, not just due to the weather, but also because it would hit the all-important holiday shopping season hard.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Why do you think they'll sell just as many first-year zero-infrastructure EVs as they will their equivalent well-established gas model? Is there another (non-Tesla) brand that has managed to do that? I find it hard to believe the Taycan will instantly outsell the 911.

Although if they do manage that, wow! The world is more ready to switch to EVs than even I realize, and that'd be great news.

There is a network out there, its not as prevalent as Tesla's but there is a network. I think the brand is strong enough to sell 40K cars worldwide. Which is not much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Pezpunk]

There is a network out there, its not as prevalent as Tesla's but there is a network. I think the brand is strong enough to sell 40K cars worldwide. Which is not much in the grand scheme of things.

i dunno man. how many cars over $150k of ANY type sell 40k units?? are there any?

 

[FreqFlyer]

That's like saying Nissan can sell as many Leafs as similarly priced Altima.

Considering Nissan's brand and customer loyalty is not even remotely close to Porsche. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[Buddyroe]

How much did Porsche have the pay for these BS articles I keep seeing?

And does anyone else out there realize that charging to 80% of a 250 mile car in 22.5 minutes is NOT faster than charging to 80% of a 370 mile car in 26 minutes? Did we lose our basic math skills?

I keep reading that the Porsche can charge faster than a Tesla, and then they state that it can charge to 80% in 22.5 minutes - I wonder if they are too dumb to realize that Tesla would have finished the equivelant charge (200 miles) in about 17 minutes, or if they know it, but it doesn't fit their narrative (or what they're paid to write).

The car is inferior to the model S in every way, except possibly the cornering and the interior. But for another $100k, I'd damn well hope it has a nicer interior!

 

[Nocturnal]

How much did Porsche have the pay for these BS articles I keep seeing?

And does anyone else out there realize that charging to 80% of a 250 mile car in 22.5 minutes is NOT faster than charging to 80% of a 370 mile car in 26 minutes? Did we lose our basic math skills?

I keep reading that the Porsche can charge faster than a Tesla, and then they state that it can charge to 80% in 22.5 minutes - I wonder if they are too dumb to realize that Tesla would have finished the equivelant charge (200 miles) in about 17 minutes, or if they know it, but it doesn't fit their narrative (or what they're paid to write).

The car is inferior to the model S in every way, except possibly the cornering and the interior. But for another $100k, I'd damn well hope it has a nicer interior!

It can be hard to determine if something is due to stupidity vs malice. Probably the one guy who did the original math knew what he was doing and everyone else is just copying him.

 

[FreqFlyer]

i dunno man. how many cars over $150k of ANY type sell 40k units?? are there any?

Great point, keep in mind lower priced variants will be released in the future, closer to the upper end of Tesla Model S price point.

In the end, it eventually helps Tesla too. Every new EV debuting, getting air time, breaks down the psychological barrier of buying an EV.

 

[humbaba]

i dunno man. how many cars over $150k of ANY type sell 40k units?? are there any?

I don't know the answer to that question, but a quick check indicates the Porsche 911 has an ASP of $100k in the US and shifts around 10k units a year in the US and 15k in Europe. Apparently Porsche isn't sold in China? Assuming the ASP in Europe is comparable to the US that is in the neighborhood of 25k for a car with 2/3 the ASP.

Just one example and it certainly doesn't prove anything, but selling 40k globally does seem like a stretch.

[edit: even if Porsche released a $80k variant and pulled the ASP down into the 911 range it still looks like a stretch. Hard to credit.]

[edit2: carsalesbase is a pain for this kind of comparison? Anyone know of a better source? Apparently in 2017 the 911 sold 32k globally. While more favorable to the 40k view, I think it still falls short as the ASP quite a bit less. Porsche again sets new records for deliveries]

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.

So then you’re expecting that the talc an is essentially more than doubling their 911 market? Or that sales of one of the 911 is going to drop off a cliff?

 

[RobStark]

Why do you think they'll sell just as many first-year zero-infrastructure EVs as they will their equivalent well-established gas model? Is there another (non-Tesla) brand that has managed to do that? I find it hard to believe the Taycan will instantly outsell the 911.

Although if they do manage that, wow! The world is more ready to switch to EVs than even I realize, and that'd be great news.

 

[SO16]

View attachment 450937

With a Tesla, can use both networks.