Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Neither million mile cars nor high energy density cells (e.g. making the car lighter for a given amount of range) are what sell EVs. Price does.

I'd say price+range. Those are the main fud talking points, and what actually stops people from considering an ev.

 

[madodel]

That's what I was about to say!


All Teslas are tomorrow's Robotaxis.

All Teslas which are equipped with the FSD hardware. AutoPilot1 hardware and those prior will never have the functionality. I know most everyone here knows this but for those who don't know anything about Tesla prior to 3 years ago I just wanted to clarify. So more like "the bulk of all Teslas are tomorrow's Robotaxis."

I'm quite happy my beautiful winged beast will never be anyone's taxi.

 

[KarenRei]

Looking forward to reviews of M3 chock full of landscaping equipment. What color?

Hahaha, I'll try to be good with keeping him clean I'm getting the tow package, and plan to downsize my trailer.

Intended purchase is:

• White (was going to be black, and I'd prefer that to white, but then they changed the free colour, and... hey, I prefer having the money more than having a specific colour!)
• AWD
• Standard interior
• 18" aeros
• Tow package

I expect this to be a pretty popular config in Iceland.

 

[Etna]

Next week.

Indeed! Elon's twitter account image sneak peek:

 

[ReflexFunds]

Neither million mile cars nor high energy density cells (e.g. making the car lighter for a given amount of range) are what sell EVs. Price does. The size of the market is massively dependent on the price per kWh, while only minimally dependent on longevity over a couple hundred thousand miles or curb weight.

Which is the whole point of the Maxwell acquisition: getting rid of the massive, expensive, energy-sucking vacuum ovens and solvent recovery systems.

Anything else is a tangential bonus. Longevity over a couple hundred thousand miles only even starts to come into the picture at all for robotaxis. And you can do that without new tech if you want, albeit by making your cells less energy dense and more expensive per kWh.

Price is highly dependent on energy density though so energy density is indirectly what sells EVs. Energy density might not change price per cell, but it is probably the key driver of price per KWh as with lower energy density you now need to manufacture more cells to get the same KWh. This then increases module and pack size and costs.

One alternative advantage of high cycle life cells is you can likely increase their upper cutoff voltage and so get higher energy density for the same cathode mix (NMC 532 etc). Maybe it's possible for the same cells to be operated either at a higher upper cutoff voltage with lower life, or at a lower voltage with long life, all controlled via software and dependent on whether or not you buy the Robotaxi package?

Anyway, I agree it doesn't look like it makes sense for Tesla to rollout these new NMC 532 cells in personal vehicles, but I can see them already being a good option for grid storage and Robotaxis. But i think it much more likely Tesla are working on NMC811 or NCA cells using the key ideas here: 1) Single crystal cathode structure, 2) Ti-based surface coating on the cathode and 3), Carefully chosen/paired electrolyte additives

 

[StealthP3D]

Add that to the fact the pads are probably better, the rotors are a lot bigger on the Taycan, and it comes with 10 piston front calipers in front for the Turbo model.

Porsche doesn't use the OEM pads when trying to break a record at the track. Brake pads for racing are totally different from the kind of pads that are needed on the street. Racing pads suck on the street.

 

[KarenRei]

Price is highly dependent on energy density though

If you can boost energy density with nothing else changing, then of course. But that's not how it works in the real world. You have capital costs, energy costs, and raw materials costs, and these are all highly process and chemistry dependent; change the process and chemistry, and you change the cost.

Eliminating vacuum ovens and solvent recovery is a guaranteed way to significantly reduce cost per kWh. Some random lab tech to improve density isn't. A lot of lab techs improve density with graphene, for example - have you priced graphene lately?

Or to put it another way: you can buy commercial Li-S cells today. Not just lab tech - commercially available! They're significantly more energy dense than li-ion cells. Why doesn't Tesla use them? Because they're way too expensive and have too short cycle lives. The tradeoffs aren't worth it for the density, and the simple fact that they're more energy dense doesn't make them cheaper per kWh.

Or perhaps just the difference of large format vs. small format cells. Large format cells are more energy dense. So should Tesla use them? No, because theres a wide range of tradeoffs in the format, and the energy density gain is not worth the sacrifices.

Energy density might affect cost per kWh, but ultimately, cost per kWh is its own parameter. And that is the parameter that needs to be optimized above all else. Tesla has talked in the past about how they always get startups coming to them with new magic batteries and wanting to give some long presentation about their great energy density and things like that, and Tesla always stops them and asks, "What's the cost per kWh in mass production?" And if they can't answer it, or the number is too high, they're shown the door.

 

[jerry33]

And now we're getting into peaker life-cycle territory. If installation costs of solar/wind plus these megapacks are in the same ballpark as an NG peaker, game over.

Even if they cost more to install, the rapidity of installation will still make them the first choice. It takes many years to get an NG peaker online.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Could it be this one? It seems to be regged in NL, and someone hinted that it's owned by a US military -- which could explain the HOV sticker. It has a taped-on home-made spoiler.

Not sure it was spotted near the track though.

It's parked outside the Hotel am Tiergarten, owned by Sabine Schmitz's family.
Might be a complete coincidence, but to fit a Gurney flap to your car just to do a few laps on a tourist day might be considered unusual?

It was registered in June this year. Does that mean it could be a Raven?

 

[Lessmog]

It's parked outside the Hotel am Tiergarten, owned by Sabine Schmitz's family.
Might be a complete coincidence, but to fit a Gurney flap to your car just to do a few laps on a tourist day might be considered unusual?

It was registered in June this year. Does that mean it could be a Raven?

What about the HOV sticker then? (I guess that's what the red arrow is.) I'm not familiar with the color coding of those, but it may give a hint to the car's age. To me it seems silly to apply for and apply such a sticker for California, only to immediately export the car and register it in another continent, with incompatible charge ports etc. But what do I know, we are all guy-guessing here, to introduce a now popular Swedish term.

Edit: Thx for the explanation, Electric Dream -- so it's not a HOV sticker.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

The red arrow is to point out where the towing eye is in case they need to recover you after a breakdown or crash.

I think you may be confusing this NL registered car seen outside the hotel with a US registered one pictured on a truck supposedly heading to the 'Ring.

Neither or both might be connected with what Elon tweeted. We won't know for a few days, if at all.

 

[ReflexFunds]

If you can boost energy density with nothing else changing, then of course. But that's not how it works in the real world. You have capital costs, energy costs, and raw materials costs, and these are all highly process and chemistry dependent; change the process and chemistry, and you change the cost.

Eliminating vacuum ovens and solvent recovery is a guaranteed way to significantly reduce cost per kWh. Some random lab tech to improve density isn't. A lot of lab techs improve density with graphene, for example - have you priced graphene lately?

Or to put it another way: you can buy commercial Li-S cells today. Not just lab tech - commercially available! They're significantly more energy dense than li-ion cells. Why doesn't Tesla use them? Because they're way too expensive and have too short cycle lives. The tradeoffs aren't worth it for the density, and the simple fact that they're more energy dense doesn't make them cheaper per kWh.

Or perhaps just the difference of large format vs. small format cells. Large format cells are more energy dense. So should Tesla use them? No, because theres a wide range of tradeoffs in the format, and the energy density gain is not worth the sacrifices.

Energy density might affect cost per kWh, but ultimately, cost per kWh is its own parameter. And that is the parameter that needs to be optimized above all else. Tesla has talked in the past about how they always get startups coming to them with new magic batteries and wanting to give some long presentation about their great energy density and things like that, and Tesla always stops them and asks, "What's the cost per kWh in mass production?" And if they can't answer it, or the number is too high, they're shown the door.

In the real world one of the main drivers of battery cost reductions the past 20 years has been increasing the % of active cathode material in a cell, therefore increasing the energy density and reducing the size, volume and cost of all other battery components per KWh.
As you say, cost per kWH is what Tesla is optimising for, so they will continue to look at all options to do this including 1) manufacturing and raw material cost reductions per cell and 2) increased KWh per cell. Increasing KWh per cell may cause some increase to $ per cell (even if only higher cathode raw material costs), but unless they are using a radical new technology it is likely to reduce overall $ per kWh.

Dahn's group isn't a random startup with magic batteries. His research group is directly funded by Tesla, his research has a track record of being rapidly integrated into Tesla's commercial products and his research is focussed on small tweaks to current technology that do not require reinventing the wheel or a radical change to the manufacturing process.

Maxwell also isn't a random startup pitching magic batteries that was shown the door. It is a company that has been working with Tesla since 2016 and who's technology convinced Elon to buy them and clearly must fit into Tesla's broader cell technology breakthrough roadmap. Many of Maxwell's papers appear focussed on the superior properties of its cathodes, rather than just their reduced manufacturing costs - in particular how it appears their technique may make it easier to introduce new cathode chemistries (which Tesla already does regularly) and to manufacture thicker cathodes to further increase the % of active cathode in a cell. To introduce Maxwell's manufacturing process Tesla already has to make changes to its old cell lines - they may as well use this opportunity to make the most of Maxwell's technology and take another small step forward in cell chemistry.

I think it highly unlikely Elon is going to be suddenly content with Tesla's current cells properties and focus solely on manufacturing cost reductions. There is a lot of room for further improvement of cell energy density, cycle life and raw material composition, and Tesla is rightly focussed on getting there through R&D focussed on small iterations to existing technology which can be quickly commercialized.

 

[Unpilot]

But what do I know, we are all guy-guessing here, to introduce a now popular Swedish term.

Is the next step up "mansplaining?

 

[StealthP3D]

I think some people are going to be in such disbelief that a Model S could win that they'll assert conspiracy theories.

I don't think that at all!

I know it.

They will range from the secret software upgrade pushes the limits so far the car is essentially toast after one lap to the Tesla's trunk was filled with supercapacitors which over-boosted the motors at key sections of the track without stressing the weak Tesla batteries.

 

[LN1_Casey]

What about the HOV sticker then? (I guess that's what the red arrow is.) I'm not familiar with the color coding of those, but it may give a hint to the car's age. To me it seems silly to apply for and apply such a sticker for California, only to immediately export the car and register it in another continent, with incompatible charge ports etc. But what do I know, we are all guy-guessing here, to introduce a now popular Swedish term.

I think that's a different car. The HOV sticker should be on the left of the vehicle, and is white with red. It's not the best angle, but I don't see it on this image. Also, I thing the trailer one was blue, and this one is a midnight silver.

Also, I very highly doubt Tesla will have taped on anything to the car for the run. They're a professional company, having something taped like that just makes it look trashy, especially since the car will be undoubtedly paparazzi'ed from one end of the track to the other. They'd want it to be the newest, best looking thing they can.

In fact, I'd not be surprised if the Tesla Model S that Tesla is going to be used has been closed-trailered since it arrived in country (if they even shipped it).

 

[CorneliusXX]

The solar business was supposed to go from the SolarCity leasing model to cash sales. Now suddenly they are aggressively renting the panels. What gives?

They are adapting to the market.

 

[KarenRei]

They are adapting to the market.

They also have $5B cash on-hand now.

 

[Thumper]

I'll be surprised if next week's MS run at the ring beats the Taycan. 7:45 is a pretty good time in absolute terms. The Taycan that set the record was undoubtedly a race-prepped prototype not a production version of the car. Porsche probably ran as many laps as needed to select the best for a video release. Having wrenched on a Formula 5000 car, I can say that at a certain point, time improvements become more and more difficult.
Nonetheless, I look forward to next week and believe it is all good publicity for EVs. Nico to drive is a great coup. Good luck to Tesla.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Even if they cost more to install, the rapidity of installation will still make them the first choice. It takes many years to get an NG peaker online.

And the fact that the fuel is free. Forever.

 

[sparcs]

I'll be surprised if next week's MS run at the ring beats the Taycan. 7:45 is a pretty good time in absolute terms.

Will we ever find out since it appears no lap time is allowed in the industry pool? Not even sure what that means. They can't publicly disclose a lap time?