If you say so ...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That assumes all else remains equal. If a chemistry change increases energy density by 20% and also increases the cost by 40%, it likely won’t be used.
I'm unsure if this is true. They refer to a "single crystal". Does this mean they couldn't bend the battery without breaking the crystal?
Agreed. When the rookie goes up against the veteran a decent showing is a win for the rookie.
Agree. Also, we only know the products that will be revealed this year and likely put into production by 2021.
Tesla will likely have six new products in six years (2016-2021) -- Model X, Model 3, Model Y, Pickup, Roadster and Semi. Does anybody really think there won't be new products rolling out from 2022-2025?
Of course there will be -- possibilities include smaller cars, different flavors of SUVs, maybe smaller and larger pickups (from Ford Ranger through Ford F650), van(s), smaller trucks, other commercial vehicles, etc.
Elon is talking about multiple TWh/year. He's not going to stop once the Model Y, Semi, pickup and Roadster are in production. The line-up in 2025 will almost certainly be larger than what has been announced so far. Zach's number is way too low.
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Hahaha that TiffanyMPhotography person blocked me because... I said I recently had a good service experience; not even in direct reply to her. She claims to be a former customer, but I’m reasonably sure she’s just a short.
Yeah exactly, but this is just a selection process. If the research results in a higher energy density that will have a higher cost per kWH when scaled, for most commercial applications the research will die (but maybe not drones, aeroplanes etc). But generally if the research is incremental changes rather than radical new chemistries, the higher energy density will also lead to lower cost per kWH and so it will survive and eventually get integrated into commercial products.
The positive thing here is that the more incremental the changes the more likely the new product will be cheaper per kWH, but also the more quickly the new product can be commercialized and the lower the capex of moving to the new product.
So if you are on Tesla's path of many incremental changes rather than Toyota's path of waiting for radical new chemistry breakthroughs, when you increase energy density you are very likely to reduce $ per kWH.
This video is great. A few comments:
- The pads around the delivery areas appear to have progressed significantly - this bodes well for production
- It's possible that stage 2 is starting as pile drivers are back on the scene
- The roof doesn't seem to be built for a full flat solar array. Hopefully Tesla puts some in but I wouldn't expect the fancy finsh projected for GF1
larmor
Active Member
Tesla needs to bring it, they have more experience in electrics and model s is the top of the line car and should have a track mode. They need to smash this taycan record. As in love and war, they can do what is necessary to take the taycan down, if it set its record with a track prepped car. I would not bat an eye if tesla used race tires, larger brakes, or altered the regen configuration. The 'ring has been there for a while, and as tesla made a track mode for the model 3, one would expect a similar improvement or upgrade to the model S.
Remember in this case, its not what tesla is telling us, its what they are not telling us. That holds for the rest of tesla as a company, they never officially shared any real details on GF3, other than they are making it, because it is more important to make it then worry what people think and because they knew a trade war was coming, right?
Looking at the rate of progress of the Shanghai GF, I keep having this vision of Tesla dangling it and its construction time in front of states/counties/municipalities in the US and saying: “HERE is what we were able to do with a cooperative government half-way around the world...in a marsh. Ball’s in your court.”
Yes, I paid for FSD when I bought the car.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Unless wrecked, no car goes to the junkyard in five years. I'm talking about 20+ year old cars, a completely different story.
You can't extrapolate the current situation of very limited supply of nearly new packs to millions of 20+ year old obsolete packs.
Door handles and self-opening actuators, LCD screens, suspension parts, headlights, underbody parts, seats, etc. All stuff Tesloop had repaired at considerable cost even though their cars were only a few years old running very easy routes in an ideal dry desert climate.
Cars degrade by the calendar as much as by the mile. Batteries age by the calendar, too (Jeff Dahn says they degrade primarily based on time spent sitting at high SOC). I recently checked all 82 2013 Model S listed on Cars.com. Average mileage was 63k (range of 12-133k). That's only 10.5k miles/year. And miles/year drops for older cars, so the claim that the average Tesla will last 500k miles on original battery means most will still be on the road after 50 years! I'll take the under, lol.
People upthread bash me because I refuse to believe 20+ year old worn out batteries will be worth $4000, and you say a new replacement will be $500? Fascinating.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I didn't say track mode for Model S had been released yet.
I said I thought the current version of Model S could beat the Taycan with simple over-the-air software upgrades. It might be able to beat it without updates, we don't know as there has been very little reported regarding how significant the Raven improvements were to reducing the thermal limits of the pre-Raven Model S.
Fire, smoke coming from overturned cargo ship in St. Simons Island, rescue on-going, four unaccounted for
That isn't likely to be one Tesla was using to speed up deliveries is it?
That isn't likely to be one Tesla was using to speed up deliveries is it?
It’s not uncommon to be able to piece together inconsistencies when combining statements from multiple people. The people arguing against you are not a hive mind.
You are, however, claiming that used batteries are/will be worth $0 and that new battery costs per kWh will remain static forever.
Most likely situation is that new battery costs continue to drop and used battery costs also drop, in rough proportion, over time.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The cluelessness of the fossil car industry (and media):
The Auto Industry Is Under Siege: Calling Visionary Leaders
Forbes has an article acknowledging the decline of the auto industry and calling for "visionary leaders". In reading the article it appears they are looking for some gimmick like the Ford Mustang or the Minivan.
“It takes a special genius to look at what everyone else is looking at and be the only one to see the vast hole in the market, the gaping need so elemental that consumers might not even be able to put it into words,” Frank Ahrens wrote in Forbes. “Steve Jobs did this. So did Iacocca.” Although visionary leadership, in the style of those household names, may seem like an innate quality, leaders can foster it in themselves — and must, if they want to reach the top.
Since the future is difficult to predict, leaders should embrace their imagination if they want to be forward-looking. “Taking the time to ponder alternatives to your firm's current ways of doing things and exploring possibilities for change can be a portal to seeing the future,” explained James Kerr, global chair of consulting practices at leadership advisory firm N2Growth, in Inc. “It is through such consideration that break-through thinking occurs and the potential to great advances are revealed.”
To be truly visionary, leaders cannot be afraid of risk. They should also be willing to persevere — as in the case of Iacocca and Chrysler — through great challenges. As Dalio wrote in his book: Shapers “are extremely resilient, because their need to achieve what they envision is stronger than the pain they experience as they struggle to achieve it.”
I can't believe that there is no mention of Tesla, electric cars or Elon Musk in this article.
The Auto Industry Is Under Siege: Calling Visionary Leaders
Forbes has an article acknowledging the decline of the auto industry and calling for "visionary leaders". In reading the article it appears they are looking for some gimmick like the Ford Mustang or the Minivan.
“It takes a special genius to look at what everyone else is looking at and be the only one to see the vast hole in the market, the gaping need so elemental that consumers might not even be able to put it into words,” Frank Ahrens wrote in Forbes. “Steve Jobs did this. So did Iacocca.” Although visionary leadership, in the style of those household names, may seem like an innate quality, leaders can foster it in themselves — and must, if they want to reach the top.
Since the future is difficult to predict, leaders should embrace their imagination if they want to be forward-looking. “Taking the time to ponder alternatives to your firm's current ways of doing things and exploring possibilities for change can be a portal to seeing the future,” explained James Kerr, global chair of consulting practices at leadership advisory firm N2Growth, in Inc. “It is through such consideration that break-through thinking occurs and the potential to great advances are revealed.”
To be truly visionary, leaders cannot be afraid of risk. They should also be willing to persevere — as in the case of Iacocca and Chrysler — through great challenges. As Dalio wrote in his book: Shapers “are extremely resilient, because their need to achieve what they envision is stronger than the pain they experience as they struggle to achieve it.”
I can't believe that there is no mention of Tesla, electric cars or Elon Musk in this article.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You're not going to get a 7:45 if there are other cars on the track. The Porsche run had an empty track. This is dangerous business even with professional drivers on a closed course.
The author does not consider Tesla to be part of the auto industry, only a passing fad.
Large companies, lead by bean counters or professional executives never have vision. Vision is usually lost when the founder dies or retires, in most cases the bean counters and professional executives take over.
doghousePVD
My grandfather’s car
Possible. Port of Brunswick is 2nd largest auto port in the country,, according to this article: Brunswick auto port doubled capacity in 2017
Stars aligned
Member
Some thoughts on battery density and form factor... Tesla Model 3 is at 246 Wh/kg and 711 Wh/L and Model S is similar, according to Insideevs. The Bolt is in terms of weight similar, i.e. 237 Wh/kg, but worse at only 444 Wh/L.
The newly revealed long lasting battery is 225 Wh/kg and 580 Wh/L in pouch format. Now, does someone know if pouch format is less energy dense than cylindrical format and hence this is the main reason for the lower energy density of the Volt?
Anyway, the performance of the battery is the result of volumetric energy density, weight energy density, longetivity / loading cycles and charge / discharge rate. I'm very much wondering if the disclosed new battery is not Tesla's latest and greatest, because at least in the Roadster I would expect a much higher weight and volumetric density to fit a 1000 miles battery in the Roadster form factor with the low roofline.
The newly revealed long lasting battery is 225 Wh/kg and 580 Wh/L in pouch format. Now, does someone know if pouch format is less energy dense than cylindrical format and hence this is the main reason for the lower energy density of the Volt?
Anyway, the performance of the battery is the result of volumetric energy density, weight energy density, longetivity / loading cycles and charge / discharge rate. I'm very much wondering if the disclosed new battery is not Tesla's latest and greatest, because at least in the Roadster I would expect a much higher weight and volumetric density to fit a 1000 miles battery in the Roadster form factor with the low roofline.
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