Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

You're not going to get a 7:45 if there are other cars on the track. The Porsche run had an empty track. This is dangerous business even with professional drivers on a closed course.

TSLAQ will send Shabooska to the Nurburgring to hinder the demo. He has a proven trackrecord already ....

 

[StealthP3D]

I can't believe that there is no mention of Tesla, electric cars or Elon Musk in this article.

Of course not. That's because it's an article about visionary leaders and the future of transportation. Not companies headed for bankruptcy, cars prone to fires and serial liars and fraudsters.

 

[JRP3]

You can't extrapolate the current situation of very limited supply of nearly new packs to millions of 20+ year old obsolete packs.

20 year old packs which still retain 70+% of their capacity will still have value as a storage medium. A 100kWh pack with 70kWh left makes one hell of a home powerwall, unless you think 70kWh worth of battery storage will only cost a few hundred dollars in 20 years. I don't.

 

[Beltsbear]

People bash me because I refuse to believe 20+ year old worn out batteries will be worth $4000, and you say a new replacement will be $500? Fascinating.

You are correct. A 20 year old battery will be nearly worthless because there will be a flood of 10 year old batteries from wrecks that will fill every tinkerers demand for DIY power packs. The 10 year old packs will probably go for $4k. But in 2030, a model s pack will only be interesting to auto restorers for antique value. And a leaf pack will be a negative value as a cost to dispose if Nissan won’t take them for free.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You are, however, claiming that used batteries are/will be worth $0 and that new battery costs per kWh will remain static forever.

I rounded to zero for 20+ year old pack. Assume $1000 but include cost of capital and the numbers don't really change.

I certainly never said new pack $/kWh "will remain static forever". I don't think the cost curve is nearly as steep as most here, but cost/kWh will clearly decline.

20 year old packs which still retain 70+% of their capacity will still have value as a storage medium. A 100kWh pack with 70kWh left makes one hell of a home powerwall, unless you think 70kWh worth of battery storage will only cost a few hundred dollars in 20 years. I don't.

JB Straubel disagrees:

“We’ve looked at reuse or kind of the second life of automotive batteries for grid applications very closely, and you know, ultimately, every time we’ve studied this we’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not a very economical or very good use of those assets.​

 

[Etna]

Fire, smoke coming from overturned cargo ship in St. Simons Island, rescue on-going, four unaccounted for

That isn't likely to be one Tesla was using to speed up deliveries is it?

MarineTraffic lists its destination as Baltimore, so no Teslas on board.

 

[3Victoria]

I rounded to zero for 20+ year old pack. Assume $1000 but include cost of capital and the numbers don't really change.

I certainly never said new pack $/kWh "will remain static forever". I don't think the cost curve is nearly as steep as most here, but cost/kWh will clearly decline.

JB Straubel disagrees:

“We’ve looked at reuse or kind of the second life of automotive batteries for grid applications very closely, and you know, ultimately, every time we’ve studied this we’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not a very economical or very good use of those assets.​

Perhaps Straubel thinks recycling the car-packs and using a product specifically designed for grid/storage use is better.

 

[MP3Mike]

MarineTraffic lists its destination as Baltimore, so no Teslas on board.

But was it headed to pickup any Teslas?

 

[mongo]

The red arrow is to point out where the towing eye is in case they need to recover you after a breakdown or crash.

I think you may be confusing this NL registered car seen outside the hotel with a US registered one pictured on a truck supposedly heading to the 'Ring.

Neither or both might be connected with what Elon tweeted. We won't know for a few days, if at all.

@Lessmog isn't confused, I'm the one who asked about the plexiglass modified spoiler vehicle.

• The roof doesn't seem to be built for a full flat solar array. Hopefully Tesla puts some in but I wouldn't expect the fancy finsh projected for GF1

GF1 fit the HVAC between floors. GF3 did not for whatever reason. Still plenty of soace for panels, just look at the roof of SpaceX.
Google Maps
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.9207779,-118.3282237,18z/data=!3m1!1e3?gl=us

 

[Doggydogworld]

The solar business was supposed to go from the SolarCity leasing model to cash sales. Now suddenly they are aggressively renting the panels. What gives?

Leasing wasn't ever the problem - extraordinarily high sales and marketing costs were the problem. Tesla's new model is direct online sale/lease only. This eliminates the cost problem, but it also dramatically reduces deployments. Tesla is experimenting with different promotions to see which, if any, can drive volume.

 

[Fact Checking]

GF1 fit the HVAC between floors. GF3 did not for whatever reason.View attachment 452243

So GF1 HVAC units are inside the building?

My guess is that this might be the result of the two tenant approach: Panasonic is leasing about 66% of GF1 with very different HVAC requirements, for example most Panasonic production lines are within cleanroom environments, which requires special, larger and more expensive HVAC solutions. Dry rooms for lithium ion battery production are typically ISO Class 7 to 6 with relative humidity <1–10%, which is an extreme environment.

In GF3 there's no cell production in the first phase I believe - so most of the internal volume HVAC requirements is for homogeneous, standard industrial air with a lot more humidity.

 

[madodel]

TSLAQ will send Shabooska to the Nurburgring to hinder the demo. He has a proven trackrecord already ....

I was going to give this a funny, but reality is those morons are dangerous and will do anything to make their insane delusions come true.

 

[kbM3]

I'm very much wondering if the disclosed new battery is not Tesla's latest and greatest, because at least in the Roadster I would expect a much higher weight and volumetric density to fit a 1000 miles battery in the Roadster form factor with the low roofline.

In the MKBHD interview, Elon explained they’re using a double height pack for Roadster 2, so no breakthrough needed, just top of the line battery with normal progress.

 

[Stars aligned]

I bet absolutely that Model S bests Taycan time next week. That's as sure as Tesla got private at 420, as sure as there was an autonomous coast-to-coast drive by end of last year, as sure as those Thai boys were caved out by the mini U boat, as sure as auto summon was ready 2 month ago and as sure as my Tesla Model S did any proper self parking since I bought it in November 2018.

Edit: watch

Wow, 8 disagrees up to now! Very nice, new record to me, let's see what the new week brings!

Actually, it's not clear to me with what you disagree exactly, my dear friends

 

[JRP3]

JB Straubel disagrees:
“We’ve looked at reuse or kind of the second life of automotive batteries for grid applications very closely, and you know, ultimately, every time we’ve studied this we’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not a very economical or very good use of those assets.

For Tesla. Doesn't mean there isn't a market for them.

 

[Cobbler]

Wow, 8 disagrees up to now! Very nice, new record to me, let's see what the new week brings!

Actually, it's not clear to me with what you disagree exactly, my dear friends

Mark,
Time to flush and close your laptop



Just kidding, everyone's entitled to their opinion.

 

[dww12]

Unless wrecked, no car goes to the junkyard in five years. I'm talking about 20+ year old cars, a completely different story.

You can't extrapolate the current situation of very limited supply of nearly new packs to millions of 20+ year old obsolete packs.


Door handles and self-opening actuators, LCD screens, suspension parts, headlights, underbody parts, seats, etc. All stuff Tesloop had repaired at considerable cost even though their cars were only a few years old running very easy routes in an ideal dry desert climate.

Cars degrade by the calendar as much as by the mile. Batteries age by the calendar, too (Jeff Dahn says they degrade primarily based on time spent sitting at high SOC). I recently checked all 82 2013 Model S listed on Cars.com. Average mileage was 63k (range of 12-133k). That's only 10.5k miles/year. And miles/year drops for older cars, so the claim that the average Tesla will last 500k miles on original battery means most will still be on the road after 50 years! I'll take the under, lol.

People upthread bash me because I refuse to believe 20+ year old worn out batteries will be worth $4000, and you say a new replacement will be $500? Fascinating.

I think keeping a Model 3 or Model Y going will be a trivial expense at 20yr compared to a current 20yr old ICE car, because there will be millions of them. Hopefully they stay backward compatible as far as the batteries. A 10yr old pack from a wrecked car to give you another 10yr will be $500. $500 does not get you another 10yr on an ICE engine repair. In 10yrs all the screens and switches will be $5-$50 ebay parts. Maybe people will use the batteries for DIY powerwalls in 10yrs but if Tesla is going terafactory I have to think that the off the shelf home depot powerwall will be very cheap by then, like water heater cheap. Very few people DIY a water heater, but some people do. Anybody need a 42” panny pro plasma monitor? It was $1000 new, 480p VGA input and I just replaced it with a 55” 4k that was $280 with wifi&apps.

Wildcard is the robotaxi. If these cars are making $20-$30k self driving and no other automakers have an alternative then all bets are off on parts pricing.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I don't know why people keep saying that Tesla doesn't use regen when using the brake pedal.

People keep saying this? Wow.

Just to be clear, pressing Tesla's brake pedal only activates friction brakes. It does not disable regen. Nor does it disable the stereo, headlights, air conditioning, NAV or any other subsystems that I know of, lol.

 

[woof]

People keep saying this? Wow.

Just to be clear, pressing Tesla's brake pedal only activates friction brakes. It does not disable regen. Nor does it disable the stereo, headlights, air conditioning, NAV or any other subsystems that I know of, lol.

Umm, pressing the brake pedal DOES disable TACC. And AP, and NOA.

 

[VValleyEV]

Article yesterday from Jalopnik, Mack Hogan, claims that Tesla EV competitors have dramatically lower range because they have dramatically more rugged and better cooled battery packs. Includes some diagrams of e-Tron to support its case. Claim is that e-Tron cools at the individual battery module level rather than whole pack, and modules can be replaced individually.

https://jalopnik.com/why-no-one-is-beating-teslas-range-1837952903

Anything to this claim, or pure FUD? Seems to be implying that Tesla’s battery cooling technology is sacrificed to gain competitive range, and batteries should not last well. I don’t know of any supporting data, seems Teslas have done real well over multiple 100k miles.