Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Elon needs to say "its gonna be at least 30k more than the Raven Perf S" Just saying more expensive leaves way too much to interpretation. It's not a good thing for P S/X demand for the next year until he clarifies the price difference

Agree, however:

1. Since the P100D is much cheaper now than it used to be and much closer to 100D price, P margins aren’t currently what they used to be.

2. This will likely get Model S margins pumped up again in 2020 to where they used to be. I think lots will go for a $130k-$150k S that is a monster at the track, since many went for $130-150k S’s that were not monsters at the track.

3. This helps avoid upset customers who want the best performing Tesla they can get. Customers can get P100D now for less, or wait for Plaid for more money. Everyone who buys between now and then has no excuse to feel like their top of the line S immediately got knocked off its podium right after they bought it, because they now know this is coming.

4. I can’t imagine how this would NOT hurt Taycan sales. More for Tesla.

5. This will help with Tesla branding and help shake the “Teslas can’t handle tracks” stigma.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[PhaseWhite]

So it is either the ring, or just fold and go home?

"We call ourselves a true sports car manufacturer, and there aren't that many ways to prove that it is a true sports car," Klaus Zellmer, president and CEO of Porsche Cars North America, told me at the Frankfurt Motor Show on Tuesday. "The Nurburgring is almost like a meter that you use to define where you stand."

its funny that Taycan is a sports car, but Model S is not even a sports car, just a family sedan.

lol so we've moved the goalposts from "sure it can do zero to 60 but it'll get killed in the quarter mile" to "sure it'll win in a quarter mile but what about from a roll" to "ok but nobody cares about acceleration in sports cars!!!! it can't do a hot lap at a track!"" to "ok fine it is fast around a track, but nobody cares -- this weird 13-mile course in Germany is the only track on planet Earth that matters!"

because the only thing people do with their cars is take them to the Nurburgring. there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)

Friend, you are preaching to the choir. I was making a specific point about performance on the ring.

 

[RobStark]

At $140k (or whatever plaid marked up price it is) a piece, I'm fine with Tesla Osborning a few* orders P orders. Sure, less sales now, but more margin later.
*those for whom cost is no object.


I'd also hope they have two Plaids, otherwise one bad turn or part failure and their record attempt is done. Besides, once one knows there is a faster version, is the speed of the 2nd best relevant?

A side benefit is there will not be thousands of Tesla owners with buyers remorse that just paid $105k-$128k on a Ludicrous that is no longer the coolest kid on the block.

Everyone can make an informed decision. Including prospective Taycan owners.

 

[Electroman]

Elon said, 'more expensive than competitors'.

What competitors is he talking about?

 

[Todd Burch]

A side benefit is there will not be thousands of Tesla owners with buyers remorse that just paid $105k-$128k on a Ludicrous that is no longer the coolest kid on the block.

Everyone can make an informed decision. Including prospective Taycan owners.

Wow you and I literally wrote the same thing at the same time.

 

[Todd Burch]

Elon said, 'more expensive than competitors'.

What competitors is he talking about?

No, he said more expensive than current offerings, less expensive than competitors. (BTW that means one and only one thing: Taycan Turbo.)

 

[RobStark]

"Powertrain about a year away from production" means, to me, a battery pack improved via the acquisition of Maxwell.

If I were in the market for a Tesla right now I would not hold off for this stuff, the Raven is proving to be an awesome upgrade. "About a year away" is a great statement to hold off on Osborning, and in any case, it's all about racing, which not everyone needs.

Nobody needs maximum plaid.

It is pure unadulterated lust.

 

[FreqFlyer]

It looks like this will be a new trim level: P100D+

(picture from: Tesla Model S spied prepping for Nurburgring lap attempt)

So I guess there goes the complaints about it being a one-off custom version for the run. And I suspect that it will become orderable after they complete the run.

But thanks for finding that they were using tires that can't currently be ordered, even if they said it was series-production tires. So just like he said it was production and the video said prototype it seems like he didn't know what was actually done.

I'm surprised that they have it out in public without hiding anything. I would have least left the + off.

Sarcasm on..................Yeah I am sure the lowered suspension, extra wide wheels and fender flares will be optional pieces availible on the website.................Sarcasm off.

 

[Unpilot]

A side benefit is there will not be thousands of Tesla owners with buyers remorse that just paid $105k-$128k on a Ludicrous that is no longer the coolest kid on the block.

Everyone can make an informed decision. Including prospective Taycan owners.

Until next year when you can get spacex thrusters and 500 mile range and ...;hell who knows ...anti gravity drive.
Innovation is THE MOAT.

 

[30seconds]

I think the best part of this is that Elon & Tesla are raising the bar and showing the world what being fully committed to EV means.

No half ass trade offs to protect your ICE business. No mixed messages. No lying about your diesel emissions.

 

[Zaxxon]

No way it has three motors.

Narrator: it has three motors.

Elon needs to say "its gonna be at least 30k more than the Raven Perf S" Just saying more expensive leaves way too much to interpretation. It's not a good thing for P S/X demand for the next year until he clarifies the price difference

I don't think this will be a major Osborne concern. For one, this is going to be above the top-spec S, and it's a year-ish away in Elon time. It's not like an AWD 3 that'll cost a few $k more in a few months--long wait, significant price bump.

Further, it's taking an S that's already 2.4 seconds to 60, with the Roadster at 1.9. So you can be certain this won't break 2 seconds, and that Tesla has a lot of pricing room above the current top-spec S before they get near Roadster or Taycan Turbo S pricing. So I would expect this to be a $20k+ option, with crazy margin, for 0.1-0.3 seconds faster to 60. Virtually all of its real benefit will be directed at those who track their cars, which is a very small minority of buyers.

In other words, it's taking a small percentage of potential S buyers and potentially convincing them to wait for a Tesla that will deliver higher margin to the company. While it also takes some percentage of potential Taycan buyers and convinces them to wait and maybe buy an S instead, delivering even more net margin to Tesla. And while bringing in all sorts of fun press in the mean time.

This is one case where I think the risk of Osborning is worth it. Especially considering the dramatic drop in sales the S has been dealing with lately. This whole discussion has brought the Model S back into the limelight.

4. I can’t imagine how this would NOT hurt Taycan sales. More for Tesla...

Yes, that.

 

[MartinAustin]

Goal post moving attempt in progress!!!

 

[Todd Burch]

So obviously TSLA has had a good few days. How will tonight’s news affect TSLA? My guess is we see a lot more green:

1. Looks possible that Tesla will beat Porsche at its own game and immediately shake the stigma that Tesla’s can’t be tracked. Many higher end (read as “higher margin”) buyers may have not considered the S because it was seen as not trackable. (One of my coworkers bought a Porsche instead of an S for this very reason). This will bring those high margin buyers back.

2. Analysts will expect higher S/X margins next year with people springing for Plaid variants. Also, at the last quarterly call, Elon almost made it sound like the S would be getting taken out to pasture: “we don’t really need the S anymore”, etc. This reaffirms that the S has a future, and will bring back the S halo on the Tesla brand until the Roadster is out.

3. With this news, I think Porsche will need to cut their previous production guidance. I think they’re just not going to sell as many now. Yes they’ll still get their die-hard Porsche fans, but those looking for the ultimate performance will go Tesla’s way.

4. The Tesla killer idea is dead.

It’s what many of us here had been saying since we first heard about the Taycan. They benchmarked it against an old S and didn’t account for how quickly Tesla moves. It’s the old Gretzky thing. Porsche skated to slightly beyond where the puck was, not realizing that Tesla’s puck was on a trajectory well beyond that.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Nobody needs maximum plaid.

It’s a bit of a relief that the zero carbon tech that will decarbonise transport is a full second faster than the old polluting tech.

Or people be like “pfft, earth, screw it - those Teslas are shite.”

 

[mongo]

Further, it's taking an S that's already 2.4 seconds to 60, with the Roadster at 1.9. So you can be certain this won't break 2 seconds, and that Tesla has a lot of pricing room above the current top-spec S before they get near Roadster or Taycan Turbo S pricing. So I would expect this to be a $20k+ option, with crazy margin, for 0.1-0.3 seconds faster to 60. Virtually all of its real benefit will be directed at those who track their cars, which is a very small minority of buyers.

Dual rear model 3 type motors will provide better handing via torque vectoring and better thermal management for the ring/ autobahn. However, Unless the pack gets a boost in output, the peak power is going to be roughly the same along with the 0-60 time (traction limited). Roadster has at least double the max power from its 200kWh pack.

 

[dha]

Today was supposed to be the dissemination date for official Nasdaq short interest figures, but there has been no update to the short interest page. I don't recall this ever happening before. Weird.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla Posts Video of Model S on Track, Says It Has Set Fastest-Four-Door Record with "Amateur Driver"

Fastest-Four-Door Record in Laguna Seca Testing

 

[RobStark]

Until next year when you can get spacex thrusters and 500 mile range and ...;hell who knows ...anti gravity drive.
Innovation is THE MOAT.

Der SpaceX package will take the rear seat space in the Roadster. Doubtful that will be offered in S or X. We don't get big upgrades every year. We have been stuck on 100 kWh for a while.

 

[Todd Burch]

So how is the TSLAQ/shorty/Jalopnik crowd reacting to all this?

I’d check myself but they’ve all blocked me, because....y’know...I like Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

It’s a bit of a relief that the zero carbon tech that will decarbonise transport is a full second faster than the old polluting tech.

Or people be like “pfft, earth, screw it - those Teslas are shite.”

An order of magnitude more Maximum Plaid Model S will be sold than Model S 40 kWh. At thrice the price.

And Aptera is still a twinkle in Steve Fambro and Chris Anthony's eyes.