Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Compton]

You buy now, you're not going to get the latest tech coming out in a year.

It has been like that since the inception of the company.

 

[Lessmog]

It is not just going to be a 3 motor difference. It's a whole new EV powertrain, as explicitly stated in the tweets. New battery, motors, and electronics. All S,X going forward from there will have the same new basic powertrain. There may be different trims, with 3 motors versus one or two motors. One significant difference will be the battery architecture, either based on 2170 cells or some new cell/pouch tech (e.g., Maxwell, etc.). And one simple practical difference will be the difference between Model 3 and current S,X in terms of faster charge speeds and better fire resistance. This is just one way it will be better. There will be other differences too. You buy now, you're not going to get the latest tech coming out in a year. If you think it's just a difference in the number of motors, you're being naive.

Same dilemma I faced when* I bought a "portable" PC that ran on ten battery cells (for an hour). A month later it was outdated. And so on ever since. Upgrade is a race the customer never can win. The minute you walk out of the store, what you just bought is obsolete. Forever and ever, amen.

* in the 1980's, mind

 

[kengchang]

Same dilemma I faced when* I bought a "portable" PC that ran on ten battery cells (for an hour). A month later it was outdated. And so on ever since. Upgrade is a race the customer never can win. The minute you walk out of the store, what you just bought is obsolete. Forever and ever, amen.

* in the 1980's, mind

Not if you have $$$$$$, you keep on buying the latest and the greatest...

 

[Lessmog]

Not if you have $$$$$$, you keep on buying the latest and the greatest...

No, that only buys you a growing heap of junk ...

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.

True, but some think they might and many others want the bragging rights.

 

[mblakele]

The Economist has a discussion of economics inside the VW Group, and compares its brands with other brands — including Tesla.

Porsche is small but highly lucrative
Volkswagen’s sports-car brand could be worth a fortune

[...] Porsche is a tiny cog in Volkswagen’s machine. It made 253,000 cars in 2018, out of 10.9m vehicles at vw as a whole. And it will sell 20,000 Taycans a year, compared with millions of id cars. But it makes so much money for vw that some investors and analysts suggest only spinning it off would recognise its true value.

[...] Porsche’s handsome returns rely in part on sharing the cost of developing new models across the wider group. The Cayenne’s underpinnings, for instance, are the same as vw’s Touareg and Audi’s q7. Porsche and Audi also plan to share a platform that will underpin several new battery-powered models.

​

 

[Antares Nebula]

It has been like that since the inception of the company.

True, but this is a much bigger upgrade. You can say that it is THE upgrade everyone has been waiting for, and now it's official.

 

[X Fan]

Florida building an autonomous testing facility: Florida Department of Transportation building facility to test autonomous cars

 

[humbaba]

Can we agree that 'D' for 'Dual motor' should not be used to identify Plaid S with three motors?
'T' would work well for triple motor/track edition.


Who said it's called P100+?

They should definitely use 'T' and call it the P100T for turbo... I mean track! or triple! but definitely not Turbo because an EV doesn't have that kind of equipment.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.

I think it's because it's a whole pile of fun. I don't know about everyone else but I haven't had this much Tesla enjoyment since the 420 tweet.

 

[Pezpunk]

I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.

Irrelevant. What’s relevant is that 75% of elite luxury performance sedan buyers *brag* about what their car can do on a track, even if their particular car spends 90% of its operating life in commuter gridlock.

Regardless of actual usage stats, a reputation for impressive track performance does sell units at that tier.

 

[M3Rider]

One significant difference will be the battery architecture, either based on 2170 cells or some new cell/pouch tech (e.g., Maxwell, etc.). And one simple practical difference will be the difference between Model 3 and current S,X in terms of faster charge speeds and better fire resistance.

Well, battery architecture is not really confirmed and Elon already let the cat out of the bag by saying that battery investor day is in Q1 20. So, anybody concerned about major battery improvements probably is already waiting for that. Faster charge speeds...maybe, but 200kwh rate is not a whole lot worse than 250. I recently traveled and charged at ~ 75/150 and wasn't very inconvenienced. Of course, depends on if you can wait or need the car now. I think majority of buyers likely don't have the same level of knowledge as on TMC.

 

[KarenRei]

Your wish is granted, plain vanilla raven Model S spotted today during the industry pool session (thus likely operated by Tesla).

 

[KarenRei]

Well, battery architecture is not really confirmed and Elon already let the cat out of the bag by saying that battery investor day is in Q1 20. So, anybody concerned about major battery improvements probably is already waiting for that.

And even then, the date of unveiling and discussing their new tech != the date of selling their new tech to customers.

 

[Antares Nebula]

This is not about a rash tweet, Tesla has clearly been preparing for this for months. The car is a working prototype and had already been shipped to the track long before Elon tweeted.

As someone said above, this gets Tesla a lot of free media attention and encourages people to compare Tesla's current specs directly to Porshce. This is perfect timing after a lot of customers on Porsche's Taycan waiting list have been highly disappointed by the pricing.

People clearly already believed further Model S/X upgrades were coming - here Elon is trying to shift the conversation - now he is acknowledging the changes but trying to imply they will only be for very expensive models and are still one year away. Whether or not this works I don't know, but I think there has been thought behind this strategy. But definitely, it will work better if they also complete laps with the currently available Raven P100D to raise awareness of the April Powertrain upgrade and fight cooling issue FUD.

I don't know. The advertising definitely helps. But you have to weigh the publicity gained against potential S,X osborne effect.

I question how much thought went into this series of events. Elon is extremely competitive, and this appears to be a reactionary move. Yes, everybody knows something is coming, but why then did Elon downplay the upgrades earlier this year and now just let the cat out of the bag all of a sudden? It appears reactionary to me. S,X sales were improving with the Raven upgrade and Elon squashing any other major upgrade rumors.* Now a 180? I don't buy that it was a thought out plan. My biggest worry as a shareholder is that the high margin S,X sales will once again suffer for another year. I'm happy to be proven wrong. We will see.

*Edit (from the most recent earnings call):

"Toni Sacconaghi

Okay. Thank you for that. If I could just follow-up. Elon, I'm wondering, if you can comment on whether you believe Model 3 is having any cannibalization impact on S and X sales or why you think that – or why else there might be sort of a structural step down in the demand and delivery levels relative to what we’ve seen over the last five or six years?

Elon Musk

Actually, we're just talking about this earlier today. We're not quite sure ourselves. I think there's some cannibalization, maybe false expectation in the market that there's like some big overhaul coming for S and X, which would then cause people to hesitate to buy, if they think there's some like radical redesign coming, which is why I've stated publicly that this is not the case."

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 40 minutes ago: Tesla Rally Takes A Breather, But Option Market Suggests More Upside Ahead

 

[Todd Burch]

I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.

In my opinion it's because the inability to track is often cited as a weakness for Teslas (aside from losing some percentage of sales, especially high-margin performance sales). Tesla fans and investors do not want Tesla to have weaknesses, thus the increased excitement at the potential of casting this weakness to the dustbin of history.

 

[KarenRei]

Edmunds is apparently run by children.

Edmunds on Twitter

(Seriously, the comments are hilarious )

 

[hobbes]

So Glovis Sunlight appears to be making a stop I the way to Zerbrudge in The UK. This could help keep UK deliveries moving. May also mean they’re short cars for Norway and Netherlands until at least next weeks ship due on the 30th.

Morton Grove on Twitter
⛴ Morten Grove on Twitter

Did the tweet change or did you not read it in detail? It says:

Glovis Sunlight is in the English Channel. ETA Zeebrugge: 23:00 CEST It's carrying more Model 3 for Europe The screenshot might indicate UK arrival, it's not the case as this is a normal sailing pattern.

When I tracked the ship that carried my Model 3 I got confused by this detour, too - seems to be normal though without it actually stopping in the UK.

 

[KarenRei]

Unrelated, but lest we forget: Teslas are still amphibious

Chad Mortensen on Twitter