Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Edmunds is apparently run by children.

Edmunds on Twitter

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(Seriously, the comments are hilarious )

They did an objective and positive reviews of the Model 3 and bought one for their testing.

2017 Tesla Model 3 | Track Test Update | Edmunds

But Edmunds is the bad guy now..........Good grief.

 

[MP3Mike]

It is not just going to be a 3 motor difference. It's a whole new EV powertrain, as explicitly stated in the tweets. New battery, motors, and electronics (not to mention a new chassis, as also stated in the tweets). All S,X going forward from there will have the same new basic powertrain and new chassis. Though there may be different trims, with 3 motors versus one or two motors.

Where did that information come from? Certainly not Tesla. They could be making a one-off track hawk version of the Model S/X. The normal trim levels could stay on their current platform.

 

[ReflexFunds]

This is pretty cool.

Next year Ford will beat model X on the range.
Its SUV will go 370 miles.
How Far Will Ford’s All-Electric SUV Take You? New Website Feature Lets You Map Your Journey | Ford of Europe | Ford Media Center

Looks like a Tesla killer in the works.

Although, since this is about Europe then likely WLTP miles. Still impressive.

Knowing Auto OEMs habitual dishonesty, this is more likely still NEDC. And possibly even city only driving range.

But still, looks like a positive step and i'd like to be proved wrong.

 

[SunCatcher]

Journalists have one job, to get their facts straight.

Used to be. Now it's to get views. Whatever it takes, and integrity is no longer that much of a concern.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I think this is a calculated strategy directly aimed at limiting the current osborne impact Tesla is already suffering from.
When Elon says there is no major refresh for S&X in the pipeline, people simply do not believe him. Partly because there is always an upgrade in the pipeline at Tesla, and partly because there have been so many leaks of further changes.
Many people may believe the base Model S&X is on the verge of another imminent upgrade. Now Elon is telling them there is an upgrade, but it is one year away, and even then it will only be for people that can spend $120-130k+. This is at least more credible than the previous no upgrade pitch and may cause some people to stop waiting, particularly if they can't afford the Plaid model. I agree Tesla is not likely to change the powertrain, interior and chassis just for a niche track package, and eventually most updates will be rolled out across the whole S&X lineup - but not everyone will realise this and if it does come, at least people may now think it is too far away to wait for.

I don't think this was a calculated strategy. It was a competitive reactionary move on Elon's part.

Yes Tesla and Elon gain more credibility re upgrades after months of denial. But your reading is painting potential Tesla customers as very naive. Musk's talk of higher cost vs current models is just him downplaying so as not to cause osborne effect. I doubt that when Tesla releases this upgrade that they will also be simultaneously producing the older variant powertrain and chassis. That would likely require double the assembly lines. It's not therefore going to trickle down into a future basic model. All models will have the same powertrain and chassis. Yes, the higher end trim will cost 120k plus, but there will be a lower end trim (perhaps they will do something like they did with the 3, where they first sell the high end trims and then the low end trims). And there will still be some inventory of the older S,Xs that they will try to move for less cost.

The clear message here is that there will be new models with new powertrain and chassis (and likely a new interior). This is a major upgrade, even more so than the Raven upgrade. This is in fact the long awaited upgrade that will be superior to the Model 3 in every way. It is THE upgrade that has been rumored and that folks were/are expecting. Any other reading is simply being naive or biased (rose colored glasses). And so is denying the possibility of osborning the current line.

I'm actually glad in a way that it is confirmed. But, as far as marketing and sales goes, it would have been better to have waited to announce this. There will definitely be a negative impact on S,X sales as result of this tweet.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

They did an objective and positive reviews of the Model 3 and bought one for their testing.

2017 Tesla Model 3 | Track Test Update | Edmunds

But Edmunds is the bad guy now..........Good grief.

Great. Do you disagree with the claim that that post by them is childish and overtly biased?

 

[NakedLong]

The Economist has a discussion of economics inside the VW Group, and compares its brands with other brands — including Tesla.

Porsche is small but highly lucrative
Volkswagen’s sports-car brand could be worth a fortune

[...] Porsche is a tiny cog in Volkswagen’s machine. It made 253,000 cars in 2018, out of 10.9m vehicles at vw as a whole. And it will sell 20,000 Taycans a year, compared with millions of id cars. But it makes so much money for vw that some investors and analysts suggest only spinning it off would recognise its true value.

[...] Porsche’s handsome returns rely in part on sharing the cost of developing new models across the wider group. The Cayenne’s underpinnings, for instance, are the same as vw’s Touareg and Audi’s q7. Porsche and Audi also plan to share a platform that will underpin several new battery-powered models.

​

Considering the head start Tesla has in the inevitable transition to EVs, this chart makes you realise how much room Tesla has to take over market share from other autos.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Great. Do you disagree with the claim that that post by them is childish and overtly biased?

You take one tweet and slam the whole organization. A tweet the majority of its readers will not see, know or care. But what the majority will see is a balanced and positive videos and reviews of Tesla's products, the 3 anyways. And I left out a couple of "pro" Tesla videos.

Who knows what Edmund's intern is running their twitter account.

Just giving a balanced view.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This is in fact the long awaited upgrade that [...] has been rumored and that folks were/are expecting.

But, as far as marketing and sales goes, it would have been better to have waited to announce this. There will definitely be a negative impact on S, X sales as result of this tweet.

Do you see the contradiction in your own reasoning? The contradiction between your two sentences above.

You are saying people are/were expecting an upgrade. What has changed after the tweet? There are still expecting an upgrade (although they still don't know what exactly to expect).

There might even be a positive: that it will still take a year. Maybe some people sitting on the fence or at the end of their leases were waiting to pull the trigger, afraid that Tesla would introduce an upgrade next month or next quarter. Now that it is at least a year out, they may decide the wait is too long and place an order.

 

[dha]

Official Nasdaq short interest figures have been released after an apparent 24 hour delay.

Short interest as of 8/30 settlement is 39,744,386. This reflects an increase of 447,870 shares shorted since the prior reporting period.


Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[Antares Nebula]

Where did that information come from? Certainly not Tesla. They could be making a one-off track hawk version of the Model S/X. The normal trim levels could stay on their current platform.

You think that there are going to be simultaneously different assembly lines for S,X with different chassis and powertrain? No way. A one-off track version? Hah! Keep thinking that! The cat is out of the bag. The model S,X are being updated big time. The old S,X models will be retired once these go into production. "New powertrain" and "new chassis" were all the clues you needed. Logic dictates the rest. Don't let your bias cloud your judgement.

 

[mongo]

A new version added to the line up != refresh of current models.
The AWD S/X may see no changes at all due the plaid edition.

 

[M3Rider]

They did an objective and positive reviews of the Model 3 and bought one for their testing.

2017 Tesla Model 3 | Track Test Update | Edmunds

But Edmunds is the bad guy now..........Good grief.

Well, their twitter guy is a fudster. This is like a third negative tweet in 2 weeks. And they deleted the previous one after Elon's followers had some fun with comments under it.

 

[dc_h]

Short on cars? If my information is correct besides the Glovis Sunlight we will have the Hoegh Oslo arriving on the 18th and the Glovis Courage on the 19th.

Hobbes corrected my note, looks like it is going direct to Zeeburgge. I had thought Hoegh Oslo was going from SFO, but this appears to be an east coast shipment, off the coast of Delaware, by way of Philadelphia. Pretty exciting to see they should get 7 ships to Europe this quarter, up from 5 in Q2 and about 20.25 days of loading, versus about 15 days of loading in Q2. The Hoegh Oslo only loaded for a day in Philly, so hard to know if it was just a partial load, or if they can load faster there, then SFO.
Anyone know if Norway still has complaints about slow deliveries? It would be nice to hear they are running behind on deliveries with more ships running.

 

[kbM3]

And P3D nearly beats Taycan at 1/3 of the price.

P3D is behind Turbo S. It might be very close to Turbo.

Base Taycan specs have not been announced.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Do you see the contradiction in your own reasoning? The contradiction between your two sentences above.

On one hand you are saying that people are/were expecting an upgrade. So what has changed after the tweet? There are still expecting an upgrade (although they still don't know what exactly to expect).

There might even be a positive: that it will still take a year. Maybe some people sitting on the fence or at the end of their leases were waiting to pull the trigger, afraid that Tesla would introduce an upgrade next month or next quarter. Now that it is at least a year out, they may decide the wait is too long and place an order.

Expectation and confirmation are two different things.

Just as from my own perspective: I was expecting a major upgrade, but after all Elon's protestations to the contrary, I began to think that maybe it's not happening, at least not as soon as I had thought. That's why I said "were/are" expecting. Maybe some people were expecting it but no longer, while others still are. But the tweet now confirms it. So I don't really see those two sentences as contradictory.

How does this affect my outlook re purchase and recommendations of S,X? Before I was like definitely wait, but then after Elon's protestations, I was like yeah go ahead buy. But now, once again, I'm like definitely wait. And I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Expectation and confirmation are two different things.

Just as from my own perspective: I was expecting a major upgrade, but after all Elon's protestations to the contrary, I began to think that maybe it's not happening, at least not as soon as I had thought. That's why I said "were/are" expecting. Maybe some people were expecting it but no longer, while others still are. But the tweet now confirms it. So I don't really see those two sentences as contradictory.

Confirms it? All Elon has confirmed is a more expensive plaid version. That is not the same as an upgrade of the complete Model S and X line. That is your conclusion, but others here are disputing your reasoning.

 

[hacer]

Any chance of dumbing this down a little for the more EE illiterate?

Yes, but not in the investor thread. I'll find an appropriate thread and post something this weekend.

 

[kbM3]

Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Autos Gross Margin, and Now Tesla’s

Ark Invest with another article on Wright’s Law.

I just skimmed it, but it looks like they’re misapplying it to Model 3. It seems they apply it to the entire vehicle based on the current number of Model 3’s sold ~300k. Technically many parts of a Model 3 (e.g. tires and windshield wipers) have been sold in the billions and therefore would not follow the same cost decline curves as the EV specific portion of Model 3. That effect has been mostly masked so far as the highest value portion of the cost was the EV specific parts. But as those rapidly decline with scale, the traditional bits will account for a higher portion of the total.

I believe Tony Seba made a similar mistake trying to apply battery cost decline curves to the entire vehicle.

In a previous article @Doggydogworld had some criticisms and I would love his and/or any others’ takes on the article, or my criticism.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Confirms it? All Elon has confirmed is a more expensive plaid version. That is not the same as an upgrade of the complete Model S and X line. That is your conclusion, but others here are disputing your reasoning.

See my earlier post:

You think that there are going to be simultaneously different assembly lines for S,X with different chassis and powertrain? No way. A one-off track version? Hah! Keep thinking that! The cat is out of the bag. The model S,X are being updated big time. The old S,X models will be retired once these go into production. "New powertrain" and "new chassis" were all the clues you needed. Logic dictates the rest. Don't let your bias cloud your judgement.