Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

This is pretty cool.

Next year Ford will beat model X on the range.
Its SUV will go 370 miles.
How Far Will Ford’s All-Electric SUV Take You? New Website Feature Lets You Map Your Journey | Ford of Europe | Ford Media Center

Looks like a Tesla killer in the works.

Although, since this is about Europe then likely WLTP miles. Still impressive.

Edit: 300 EPA miles
Say Goodbye to Gas with Ford® All-Electric Vehicles

Maybe I’m hopelessly naive, but it certainly seems there is a whole bunch of relatively serious pro-EV sentiment lately (VAG, Jag, Audi, Ford, even Honda). Is this just the inevitability of the EU emission limits? All smoke?

 

[guidooo]

What has changed after the tweet? There are still expecting an upgrade (although they still don't know what exactly to expect).

Although they don't know what exactly to expect; they probably do expect better handling and increased performance (for whatever that's worth). I cannot or do not want to read into the minds of people wishing to buy an s/x for whatever reason, but something did change. And that's the message that a substantially better version is coming within a reasonable timeframe.

 

[KarenRei]

Maybe I’m hopelessly naive, but it certainly seems there is a whole bunch of relatively serious pro-EV sentiment lately (VAG, Jag, Audi, Ford, even Honda). Is this just the inevitability of the EU emission limits? All smoke?

Meh, they can make whatever they want (within the bounds of physics)

Doing it in a manner that can simultaneously achieve both sales volume (low price with good capabilities) and meaningful margins (tends to favour high prices and/or low capabilities) is an entirely different story.

 

[Antares Nebula]

People, "new powertrain" and "new chassis" implies a separate assembly line. Do folks here really believe that Tesla will be simultaneously running assembly lines for the old S,X chassis and powertrain along with the new ones? Or that they will predominately be running the old assembly line, only to stop it every once in while to do the new chassis and powertrain? Neither of these scenarios makes sense from both an assembly and production perspective nor from volume cost efficiencies. The only logical conclusion is that all new S,X from that time forward will have the same chassis and same basic powertrain (with the exception of possibly different battery pack sizes and number of motors — performance trim levels, as Tesla currently does).

 

[RobStark]

I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.

Just like 0.2% of Jeep owners will ever take an off road trail.

But Success on the Rubicon Trail sells $40k-$100k Jeeps to the poseurs.

That and selling 35,000 lbs of tow capacity that will never be used by Ram owners delivers the profits that keep FCA alive.

 

[mrmage]

They did an objective and positive reviews of the Model 3 and bought one for their testing.
...

But Edmunds is the bad guy now..........Good grief.

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it."

Edmunds online started 24 years ago. Buffet is a smart guy.

Not saying this will completely unravel Edmunds, but reputation can also be chipped away one sentence at a time. The Twitter guy doesn't tweet without corporate approval.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Just like 0.2% of Jeep owners will ever take an off road trail.

But Success on the Rubicon Trail sells $40k-$100k Jeeps to the poseurs.

That and selling 35,000 lbs of tow capacity that will never be used by Ram owners delivers the profits that keep FCA alive.

The ultimate was the Hummer. You could take it into a WAR if needed!!

 

[mrmage]

People, "new powertrain" and "new chassis" implies a separate assembly line. Do folks here really believe that Tesla will be simultaneously running assembly lines for the old S,X chassis and powertrain along with the new ones? Or that they will predominately be running the old assembly line, only to stop it every once in while to do the new chassis and powertrain? Neither of these scenarios makes sense from both an assembly and production perspective nor from volume cost efficiencies. The only logical conclusion is that all new S,X from that time forward will have the same chassis and same basic powertrain (with the exception of possibly different battery pack sizes and number of motors — performance trim levels, as Tesla currently does).

I can see that they'll want to consolidate as much as possible. But isn't the introduction of a new model something that all auto companies do in new model years? Not seeing how Tesla can avoid announcing it at some point.

 

[AlMc]

You take one tweet and slam the whole organization. A tweet the majority of its readers will not see, know or care. But what the majority will see is a balanced and positive videos and reviews of Tesla's products, the 3 anyways. And I left out a couple of "pro" Tesla videos.

Who knows what Edmund's intern is running their twitter account.

Just giving a balanced view.

Credit to you for trying to keep a balanced view. There is evidence of 'why' Edmunds would be bias against a company that does not use a dealership model:

Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter

In addition, many here that support the mission chastise EM for some poor choices in Tweets. I think it is fair to not 'assume' that the post was not written by an intern at Edmunds.

 

[jerry33]

Maybe I’m hopelessly naive, but it certainly seems there is a whole bunch of relatively serious pro-EV sentiment lately (VAG, Jag, Audi, Ford, even Honda). Is this just the inevitability of the EU emission limits? All smoke?

All the auto execs have watched Tesla increase by leaps and bounds over the past ten years. They all realize that ICE is going away. However, they have issues. First is that they need profits to stay alive, but it will take them years before they have a profitable line of BEVs. Second is corporate culture (and franchised dealers) which revolves around ICE and is their core competency. So they are now all talking the talk, but walking the walk is going to be very hard and most are likely to not make it--even with massive government support. I suspect some of them still think this EV thing will go away, so they are only doing the minimum possible. Also some of them are professional executives and will get a golden parachute even if the company folds (e.g. they don't really have that much of a personal stake in a successful transition).

 

[capster]

Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Autos Gross Margin, and Now Tesla’s

Ark Invest with another article on Wright’s Law.

I just skimmed it, but it looks like they’re misapplying it to Model 3. It seems they apply it to the entire vehicle based on the current number of Model 3’s sold ~300k. Technically many parts of a Model 3 (e.g. tires and windshield wipers) have been sold in the billions and therefore would not follow the same cost decline curves as the EV specific portion of Model 3. That effect has been mostly masked so far as the highest value portion of the cost was the EV specific parts. But as those rapidly decline with scale, the traditional bits will account for a higher portion of the total.

I believe Tony Seba made a similar mistake trying to apply battery cost decline curves to the entire vehicle.

In a previous article @Doggydogworld had some criticisms and I would love his and/or any others’ takes on the article, or my criticism.

Hmm, Tesla seems to be re-engineering some of the traditional bits as well as manufacturing, so maybe Ark Invest is not completely misapplying the law and their commentary is not without merit.

 

[RobStark]

UAW official charged with embezzling union funds

 

[mongo]

People, "new powertrain" and "new chassis" implies a separate assembly line. Do folks here really believe that Tesla will be simultaneously running assembly lines for the old S,X chassis and powertrain along with the new ones? Or that they will predominately be running the old assembly line, only to stop it every once in while to do the new chassis and powertrain? Neither of these scenarios makes sense from both an assembly and production perspective nor from volume cost efficiencies. The only logical conclusion is that all new S,X from that time forward will have the same chassis and same basic powertrain (with the exception of possibly different battery pack sizes and number of motors — performance trim levels, as Tesla currently does).

New powertrain means new drive unit(s) (which include the drive inverter) from GF1.
New chassis can mean new sway bars, shocks, and beefier links to handle more torque.
No one is going to consider stronger chassis mount points an upgrade.

BIW may even be unaffected, though paint probably has a few tweaks.

 

[jerry33]

People, "new powertrain" and "new chassis" implies a separate assembly line. Do folks here really believe that Tesla will be simultaneously running assembly lines for the old S,X chassis and powertrain along with the new ones? Or that they will predominately be running the old assembly line, only to stop it every once in while to do the new chassis and powertrain? Neither of these scenarios makes sense from both an assembly and production perspective nor from volume cost efficiencies. The only logical conclusion is that all new S,X from that time forward will have the same chassis and same basic powertrain (with the exception of possibly different battery pack sizes and number of motors — performance trim levels, as Tesla currently does).

Sort of. It seems to me that they have enough space that they will build a new line and when that gets running, they'll convert the old line (probably not to S/X). That way there is no, or at least minimal, downtime.

 

[kengchang]

Jalopnik has gone "INSANE"

 

[capster]

The ultimate was the Hummer. You could take it into a WAR if needed!!

Seriously? Few could. How many countries can afford the logistics trail of that thing and its ilk?

 

[jerry33]

The ultimate was the Hummer. You could take it into a WAR if needed!!

Not after GM got a hold of it and turned it into a kit car. (It was pretty cool before).

 

[Singer3000]

Goodness me, have just ploughed through what must have been 200 pages about track performance on the investor thread.

The white noise here this quarter says to me that Tesla have cut down on the leaks. I really have no idea what weekly Model 3 production is right now.

Anyway, new Model S/X announcement: I doubt this was made by accident. I can think of a couple of reasons they may have chosen to announce it now.

A) Model Y (and Roadster) at Fremont means some serious rejigging of the floor space and perhaps a temporary interruption to S&X production at the start of 2020.

B) Musk felt the need to show up Porsche, perhaps to prove to VW’s management that Tesla’s engineers are superior to VW’s in-house teams. I am intrigued most by this possibility, especially given how quiet things have been on the Giga 4 front.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I can see that they'll want to consolidate as much as possible. But isn't the introduction of a new model something that all auto companies do in new model years? Not seeing how Tesla can avoid announcing it at some point.

This is a tricky question. Tesla does not do model years, as Elon has often stated. So it's different in Tesla's case. But yes, you have to announce it at some point. And it can be argued that waiting till the last minute may risk blowback from customers who just purchased the older models.

I think an instructive case can be found with Apple and the annual iPhone launches. Like cars, everybody knows an upgrade is coming next year, but they don't know exactly what it is. While the rumor mill spins, Apple itself stays pretty hush on the subject. It only announces and reveals the new iPhone a week or so before it's available, as they are well aware of osborning current sales.

Fortunately for Tesla, Elon's prior protestations about upgrades appeared to have found a nice balance. He previously said no major upgrades are coming this year, which left the door open for next year. But it was still far from clear, given his protestations that Tesla doesn't do major upgrades. So, as far as the public was concerned, it was kinda like there may or may not be an upgrade in the near future.

I think Tesla should have carried on with this cloudy strategy till near the release date. Then at some specific time before the release date they should start discounting the current S,X lines (so as to minimize blowback from customers). And they should have then announced a surprise press event. I'm uncertain what a good time frame is from announcement to availability — a few weeks or a few months?

 

[EinSV]

Maybe I’m hopelessly naive, but it certainly seems there is a whole bunch of relatively serious pro-EV sentiment lately (VAG, Jag, Audi, Ford, even Honda). Is this just the inevitability of the EU emission limits? All smoke?

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