Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

takes 3 days to do what might have been 1 day or intra-day before

Ah, to live in a world where such things take 3 days. My flat tire is still in service, approaching 7 weeks. Finally got ahold of them yesterday and it’s been deemed repairable but they don’t have tire repair kits in inventory.

 

[scaesare]

I guess what I'm saying is analysts don't care about what "Tesla is capable of" anymore. 2019 is all about execution now.

Then I'd suggest not tagging a contrarian reponse on a reply to a post that had nothing to do with that.

For Tesla to reach the next multiples, they need to demonstrate that they can sustain selling an average of 10k cars per week for all of 2019.

Nonsense. They could enter 2019 at 5-6k/wk and exit it at upwards of 8-10K a week and sell somewhere in the neighborhood of 400K Model 3's and over half a million cars total.

I'd say 100% growth would me a nice "multiple".

The issue now is that we're already seeing some warning signs. Tesla hasn't received approval to sell the Model 3 in Europe, and US demand is showing some weakness both with inventory slowly accumulating and the price cut.

No... this part of "we're" isn't.

This European homologation thing is made up much ado about nothing as far as I can tell.

 

[tivoboy]

As far as real, didn't somebody say they don't verify whether you own a car or not?

Different surveys get their lists from different places. I think yes they could get some false negatives. I’d like to think they are doing the right statistical analysis to factor those out. Who knows.

All I can say is I LOVE MY MODEL 3!!!! Would buy again. Best car ever owned. (Okay maybe second best)

 

[MartinAustin]

Holy cow PLEASE don't make me read discussions with trolls. (scaesare!)

Just wanted to give a brief shout-out to the Tesla Daily podcast. You can find it on your Tune-In on your Tesla car! (listening to Tesla podcasts while driving a Tesla is oddly satisfying)

The speaker Rob Maurer is always knowledgeable, level-headed and bereft of hyperbole. In the latest podcast he discusses the delivery/production figures and price cuts, and also yesterday's SP decline and its obvious cause (CNBC+shorts coordinating with each other).

 

[CuriousSunbird]

And, btw, a Happy & Prosperous New Year to all.

 

[Nocturnal]

This pearl clutching about softening demand is nonsense right? The US market is only so large and Tesla has already eaten up a large share. It's not like those of us who bought Teslas consider it a one time deal and we will never buy another one. Auto demand in general is down and Tesla is heading into two huge new markets in the short term. I also talk to people all the time that really want a Tesla and are waiting for a better time or for the SR.

Some of us 3 owners also own an S. First off, my expectations were exceeded on both cars. There were no dings, scratches, or dents. Second off, I spent LESS than 100k on the S, just about double what I spent on the 3. If I had noticed any problems, most likely I would have let the service center deal with it, but they already had, and that may be why I use that service center rather than the closer one.

Maybe I had lower expectations on the 3, but I doubt it. Since I bought my first S my expectations have been high, with NO gas stations, NO pollution, NO noise, NO oil changes, NO filters, NO gear changing, LOTS of power, and LOTS of stares from nearby people. Best. Car. Ever. Nuff said.

Heck. My p3d+ with EAP and MSM wasn't so far from 100k.

 

[azaz]

I'm sorry you can't have it both ways.

can't say Elon/Tesla is a fraud for not delivering the 35k Model 3 yet and also bash Tesla when they make the car cheaper

 

[hacer]

I come back to you now at the turning of the tide.

Yeah, but you're totally missing the rising sea level, and it will drown you.

 

[KarenRei]

And you're actually making my point. There are any number of Model S and X owners who are NOT happy with the fact that they can't get service appts, or that there are no loaner Teslas when putting in a car for service, or that it now takes 3 days to do what might have been 1 day or intra-day before. They may still love their CAR, but the overall experience for them will have changed - for some, and that will show up in the customer satisfaction data.

Meanwhile, I have a Ford pickup that's been in the shop since last fall....

Wait times are not unique to Tesla.

 

[Lucky_Man]

In fact, an evasive action would be warranted in some cases. For example, you see a tornado coming straight at you along the road/highway. If there are no other cars around you, I would turn around and speed up in the opposite direction or seek shelter in a covered public garage. If the FSD simply stops, you might be worse off.
Or coastal flooding - you might want to be driving inland asap, so if FSD just stops and there is no steering wheel anymore in the car, you might be in a bigger trouble.

OMG! Can it really do a 'revenuers 180-degree' turn' by itself??? Took me a long time to master that one ;^)

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Meanwhile, I have a Ford pickup that's been in the shop since last fall....

Wait times are not unique to Tesla.

Very true. I had to wait 6 months for a Volvo under their new subscription program.

 

[EVMeister]

I will have been waiting 7 months for my I-PACE when I get it in April (don't shoot me, I know it's no Tesla ).

 

[tivoboy]

OMG! Can it really do a 'revenuers 180-degree' turn' by itself??? Took me a long time to master that one ;^)

When an FSD Tesla can master a K turn to grab a parking spot on the other side of the street in less than 25 seconds we’ll know the computers have won.

And are probably going to be coming for us soon.

 

[RobStark]

It's actually worse than Tesla throwing away sunk cost: if Tesla decided to not use the 18,650 cells made in Panasonic's factories in Japan, Panasonic could sell the output to another carmaker - for example to some EV startup that would be more than happy with a ~10 GWh/year supply of proven, reliable, high energy density cells...

Why not move Model X to 2170 and keep S on 18650 or

Move S/X long range to 2170 and keep base models on 18650.

That way you use all the 18650 AND increase S/X sales.

Maybe make an S/X line in China. You would not preannounce this because you Osborne current Chinese X/S sales.

Stagnating is inviting Thai-Khan et al to eat your cheese.

When Tesla introduced the 100 kWh pack they said there would be an upgrade every ~18 months.

 

[Buckminster]

Why all the discussion on S/X refresh? - fairly irrelevant to finances going forwards whatever they do.

That's assuming that the Roadster, Y, Semi, pick-up, Model 2, Solar roof & Megapack don't get cancelled... Not sure that many of these have been discussed at all in the past 47 pages.

 

[JRP3]

When Tesla introduced the 100 kWh pack they said there would be an upgrade every ~18 months.

Didn't Elon say they had no plans to go beyond 100kWh?

No plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100 kWh.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[aubreymcfato]

Can someone provide a reference to the Wall Street consensus? Analysts' estimates?
Maybe @Curt Renz ?

I'm amazed by the fact that Tesla exceed TMC expectations but out of the blue
Wall Street is disappointed.
Did they reallt pull their numbers out of their ass? Can we do something about it?
This community is able inquire this story findind the real estimates.

 

[omarsultan]

From an engineering ROI perspective, I am not sure it makes sense to so anything more with the current S/X packs--its more than just swapping out the cells, the BMS would need to be re-worked, the pack would need to be re-designed to accommodate the longer cell, perhaps the body panels as well, and maybe the whole thing needs to get crash tested again. Doing so also introduces new variants for for manufacturing and service and Tesla has shown they are almost religious in their desire to simply.

I can see this moving to a new pack as part of an overall Model S refresh that I would expect will be happening soon.

 

[BornToFly]

I hope I don't regret it. I just sold a bunch of covered calls with 335 SP for next Friday. I don't think we will be over 335 for two reasons: Uptick rule will no longer be in effect tomorrow, so I think the SP will drop below 300 tomorrow. Also, Tesla usually take the stairs up, and the elevator down. So I think it will take a few weeks, especially in the current macro environment, to get back up to 335.