Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Gentle reminder for our collective memories... So this is the car that was to be priced... you know what, let me quote:

“We’re expecting a price somewhere between a Cayenne and a Panamera,” said Robert Meier, the complete vehicle model line director for the Taycan.

Cayenne starting price: $66.800
Panamera Starting price: $87.200
...
Taycan Starting price: $103.800

Once again, I know this will be a successful car and that success is very good for EVs in general.. but I am appalled by the level of marketing-dishonesty employed by traditional car makers. The Taycan was touted for years as having 350kW Tesla-killer charging with performance, range and price matching the Model S.

In reality the car did not deliver on the charging specs, costs 20%-90% more than the Model S, range is still TBD, but is likely a miss as well and at best we can give it a "draw" on performance.

Cue the Porsche bashing headlines in automotive and financial media... not.

In Porsche parlance the S Model is still up trim. There should still be a cheaper base version.

Maybe 95 mile range

 

[KarenRei]

Not enforced by the police particularly vigorously I suspect, because those going "off Icelandic roads" without permission are usually punished by nature itself?

Oh, you get seriously punished if you get caught.

The landscape "heals" incredibly slowly. Tracks from driving through moss or places in the highlands where little to nothing grows can be visible for decades or more. It's kind of heartbreaking when you see it from the air, a pristine, mind-boggling landscape... and then some place where some idiot went for an offroad joy ride some unknown number of years ago.

 

[lklundin]

Yes, you understand me correctly, it is so clever that I have doubts about whether I read the patent correctly. Surely, if it is that easy then someone else would have thought of it before. Perhaps the key is the dry electrode manufacturing process from Maxwell, getting rid of the drying ovens might make it all possible.

If correctly understood, then the gained efficiency in the manufacturing process necessarily comes at the cost of not being able to balance the cells at such a fine granularity, since such a group of cells are hardwired together.

I have to imagine that Tesla has determined that exactly because the cells in one such group are all produced together in the same (few) steps, then there will be little need to balance them against each other, i.e. that the performance of the cells in one such group is likely to be extra homogeneous.

 

[Beltsbear]

Singer3000 seems to me to have a good point. There are many places in North America with insufficient access to Tesla service centres or stores. I see this as evidence of opportunities for growth. How can anyone say Tesla is demand-limited when so many places are far from service centres?

As to his complaint about underservice to Edmonton, I don't think his case is that strong. To go from Edmonton to any other major city, people can fairly conveniently just drive to Calgary first. Jasper's a nice place to visit. Superchargers there would get used.

He's 300 km from his sales centre in Calgary. I live in Winnipeg, a city of 750,000 with a median income about $57,000 and it's 1340 km to our sales centre in Calgary. Minneapolis is our nearest Tesla centre at 735 km but we can't buy vehicles there. Tesla, I am told, sends us Winnipeggers to a local collision repair centre for many sorts of Tesla repairs. Does this happen elsewhere, or is this because Calgary is so far?

Maybe there's no Tesla centre in Edmonton because it's EV unfriendly. That province's economy is oil based. I have a friend with a small EV in Calgary and she says she regularly gets middle fingers, verbal insults, and blasts of diesel smoke from ICE drivers. (I expect Edmonton is somewhat better than Calgary.)

I will be delighted when the Trans Canada highway is supercharged, as will all the people along it who may go 200 km for some reason and then want to get home the same day. This is particularly difficult in winter. However the real missing link is a supercharger in North Dakota so that I and others can get to the US highway system.

edmonton is where the last sentry mode Tesla keying took place just a day ago.

as for service centers, they do need to do more, but they did cover most of the buying public in the USA with them. In Canada it seems like they need more.

 

[elasalle]

No more pics of EV Hummers please

 

[Fact Checking]

I have to imagine that Tesla has determined that exactly because the cells in one such group are all produced together in the same (few) steps, then there will be little need to balance them against each other, i.e. that the performance of the cells in one such group is likely to be extra homogeneous.

I'm not sure that's true: if cell degradation is a stochastic process then the various cells would diverge like Brownian motion - and a good BMS would have to be able to handle the different aging speeds dynamically.

I'm also not convinced that Tesla truly wants module level clean room assembly. There's few advantages: the caps weigh maybe 1 kg in a 700 kg pack? Plus quality sorting individual cells is much more reliable: Panasonic had reject rates of several percentage points early in the 21,700 ramp-up.

Trying to make 30-50 "perfect" cells at once, without being able to sort out duds looks like a hellish QA challenge l, for very limited payback that I can see.

 

[Andy O]

Elon has stated that the Supercharger network will be extended to Alaska. Mile 0 of the Alaska highway starts about 50 km West of Edmonton.

Uh, I lived at Mile 0 of the Alaska Highway for a while and it's 580 km northwest of Edmonton. Typo there Dodger.

 

[mongo]

Y'all are confusing me. Isn't this the GF3 3 thread?
Pickup thread is over here -> Tesla Pickup design (out of main)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Uh, I lived at Mile 0 of the Alaska Highway for a while and it's 580 km northwest of Edmonton. Typo there Dodger.

Yeah, depends where you start counting it. Many people say the Alcan starts where Highway 43 turns north from the Yellowhead highway. That's the road to Alaska, and where Tesla will connect to the larger Supercharger network in North America. Unless you have some other need to be pedantic defining Mile 0... (how long were you 'bushed'?)

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Strong on bugger-all volume...

 

[LN1_Casey]

Strong on bugger-all volume...

At least, before the MM get to their dirty deeds.

Although, since 14th has almost ended for China, has there been any news from that side at all?

 

[Tslynk67]

At least, before the MM get to their dirty deeds.

Although, since 14th has almost ended for China, has there been any news from that side at all?

Not that I'm aware of - TBH I was expecting the FUD to start about "another deadline missed", but that neither...

 

[Artful Dodger]

At least, before the MM get to their dirty deeds.

Although, since 14th has almost ended for China, has there been any news from that side at all?

Just a comment on Youtube by Shanghai Drone Operator Wu Wa: (no video though)

"Today (october 14), tesla shanghai super factory officially entered into the production day."​

 

[HG Wells]

Not that I'm aware of - TBH I was expecting the FUD to start about "another deadline missed", but that neither...

They may not realise how the international date line works.
IE China is ahead of us and it will be October 15 in two hours.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not that I'm aware of - TBH I was expecting the FUD to start about "another deadline missed", but that neither...

Lol, tell 'em to come back in 36 mths when Phase IV is starting production...

Even the Chicago Dodge B-29 engine plant took more than a year from start of construction to start of production back during the max. effort growth of US industry during WW2.

Shanghai GF3 rollout is unrivalled in modern history.

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

I wonder if the authorities who are running the GF3 have a strongly enforced policy of no cameras. All the interior shots so far seem like sly, spy cam. With the amount of workers that they've hired so far, and are going to hire for the long term, they have to be enforcing it somehow.

 

[mongo]

I wonder if the authorities who are running the GF3 have a strongly enforced policy of no cameras. All the interior shots so far seem like sly, spy cam. With the amount of workers that they've hired so far, and are going to hire for the long term, they have to be enforcing it somehow.

No cameras/ photography is a standard employee/ NDA clause.

 

[Thumper]

Meanwhile, we are actually over $250 again this morning. Hope we can keep it up.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Its definitely 100% deliberate by tesla to keep GF3 as quiet as possible, while still respecting Chinese pride in whats been achieved. Elon & the Tesla twitter account could be tweeting regular pictures of factory progress, and fireworks going off as the first car rolls out the line etc... and no doubt this would be good for the SP...but I get the impression Elons aims are no longer shock other companies into making EVs... he wants to win, and why remind everyone just what an enormous strategic advantage you have until they notice it themselves?

It would not surprise me for Tesla to keep VERY quiet about GF3 progress until its time to make some big announcement, when i think the numbers may be a very big shock.

People think tesla cant keep secrets...but who knew about the roadster? maybe they are going to have the same attitude, but this time with production milestones.

 

[Tslynk67]

Its definitely 100% deliberate by tesla to keep GF3 as quiet as possible, while still respecting Chinese pride in whats been achieved. Elon & the Tesla twitter account could be tweeting regular pictures of factory progress, and fireworks going off as the first car rolls out the line etc... and no doubt this would be good for the SP...but I get the impression Elons aims are no longer shock other companies into making EVs... he wants to win, and why remind everyone just what an enormous strategic advantage you have until they notice it themselves?

It would not surprise me for Tesla to keep VERY quiet about GF3 progress until its time to make some big announcement, when i think the numbers may be a very big shock.

People think tesla cant keep secrets...but who knew about the roadster? maybe they are going to have the same attitude, but this time with production milestones.

I think Tesla are excellent at keeping stuff secret, the way Apple used to be, but now we know everything a year ahead of release...

I don't see how an opening ceremony would do any harm though, handing over the first few cars to the new owners, or whatnot.