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Plus, they don't have any extra 21-70 batteries. That would mean giving up Model 3 sales or Tesla Energy sales when they could keep using 18650s like they have been doing..
Some of us _really_ want a powerwall or 2, to hook up to our oversized PV arrays so we can become nodes in local VPP’s and micro grids, and put a sign in driveway for “destination charging for Tesla’s” in a ‘tarted up’ modified repurposed gas pump
 
At least that. Remember that the 10-K (unlike the 10-Qs) has to go through external audit.
As has been pointed out before, there's the earnings press release and conference call, and there's the 10-K which needs audited figures. There is no requirement that they happen at the same time, so long as there's nothing materially wrong in the press release. They could, tomorrow, do their report and press conference, and if they felt it necessary, just mention in the boilerplate and the start of the call that the figures are unaudited and might vary by, say, up to two percent as figures are finalized. Having said that, I'm currently expecting Jan 30 for the report and call.
 
That's a very small group of customers to invest all those resources in a new battery pack. Plus, they don't have any extra 21-70 batteries. That would mean giving up Model 3 sales or Tesla Energy sales when they could keep using 18650s like they have been doing.

There may be some competitive reason to make the change down the road, but it doesn't make sense today. Maybe when they have excess battery capacity.
"Today" is pretty objective, and no-one has been saying today. "Down the road" is completely subjective and could mean anything, in fact, there is a guarantee that they will eventually do everything down the road :)

I think this change could definitely happen in 2019, in fact, I predict it. A better experience with V3 Superchargers would be another reason to do it.

The small number of P120D battery packs would not impact production at Giga1.

If there is a demonstration event for faster Superchargers, I believe they will show all three of their cars and roll out the new battery pack at the same time, that's my guess. Elon has said more than once that "Model S+X are the flagship platform and will see new technologies first." (one could argue that missing out on 21-70 is placing them behind the curve... all the more reason for this battery pack upgrade!)

They could even do this as a "one more thing" at the Model Y event in order to guarantee coverage in the mainstream media (who will definitely cover the Model Y)
 
I think it is a little early to be bearish on Apple. They have to be favourite to win the impending AR/VR war (what are you going to be doing in the back of your FSD Robotaxi Tesla?). They are not losing customers and their customers remain loyal. They will be cooking up numerous new technologies - this is just a lull before the next technologies kick-in.
 
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I hope I don't regret it. I just sold a bunch of covered calls with 335 SP for next Friday. I don't think we will be over 335 for two reasons: Uptick rule will no longer be in effect tomorrow, so I think the SP will drop below 300 tomorrow. Also, Tesla usually take the stairs up, and the elevator down. So I think it will take a few weeks, especially in the current macro environment, to get back up to 335.

With a volatile stock like TSLA, I would not want to sell a far out of the money call or puts because there's really not enough profit to worth the hassle.

Best time to sell covered calls is after a major run up and that you don't expect short term news to further boost the upside.

When you sell near the money calls, you also get the benefits of having lots more wiggle rooms to comfortably wait out the volatility and spot a good exit opportunity. For example, if you sold near the money calls that expires in the short term, you have some wiggle rooms where you still end up making money even if the calls is in the money. And given how volatile TSLA is usually you can exit at a decent profit during MMD.
 
LIVE Sandy Munro -playing right now, very informative


They basically had to restrain Sandy from gushing on about the car and the organization building the car. The possible pace of innovation, as well as the industry leading design of the nuts and bolts puts the car on a different level from what anyone else can do.

the wonder of youtube and the archive is already running.
 
Can someone provide a reference to the Wall Street consensus? Analysts' estimates?
Maybe @Curt Renz ?

I'm amazed by the fact that Tesla exceed TMC expectations but out of the blue
Wall Street is disappointed.
Did they reallt pull their numbers out of their ass? Can we do something about it?
This community is able inquire this story findind the real estimates.
TSLA - Tesla Inc. Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize says Wall street's 4Q estimate is $2.08
Charles Schwab claims the Q4 consensus is $2.12
TSLA: Tesla, Inc. - Detailed Estimates - Zacks.com claims $2.08
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Forecast claims the Q4 consensus is $1.00 (probably GAAP vs non-GAAP above)
 
This makes them very susceptible to being disrupted by low priced competitors because the low priced phones now finally have good enough performance for most.

Will disagree on this point. Apple generally does not compete on specs and most owners couldn't tell you squat about processor speed, RAM, etc. They do compete on things completeness of ecosystem, ease of use, privacy, security which are much more sticky and harder to compete against. The same is true in Telsa-land. While the Taycan might be a faster EV than the Model S but without a charging network, it's a less appealing one.
 
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Listening now. Very interesting stuff. Everyone here (except the shorts) should check it out...shorts will be disappointed with all the praise Munro is heaping on the Model 3.

I'm not sure who in the shorty org chart would be responsible for responding to fraud Sandy.

Really interesting to get fact based data at an engineering level. Too bad so many of the shorts can't open up long enough to absorb information that doesn't confirm their existing bias. As someone who has been accused of seeing all 3 sides of a coin, i find an inability to update a point of view, based on updated information, the biggest source of useless conflict.
 
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TSLA - Tesla Inc. Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize says Wall street's 4Q estimate is $2.08
Charles Schwab claims the Q4 consensus is $2.12
TSLA: Tesla, Inc. - Detailed Estimates - Zacks.com claims $2.08
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Forecast claims the Q4 consensus is $1.00 (probably GAAP vs non-GAAP above)

Then there is this fun figure (from Yahoo Finance):

Average analyst revenue projection for 2019 -- $29.37B. TSLA Analyst Opinion | Analyst Estimates | Tesla, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance

So the average analyst is predicting essentially no growth or low single digit growth from Q4 -- after 5 years averaging ~60% y/y growth.:rolleyes: