Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singer3000]

Yeah, I am a little worried the pissing contest will overshadow the news of GF3 pumping out cars. He should have applied more tact in that tweet.

I thought it was “bullish AF”.

Einhorn’s Tesla short was grandfathered in from Solarcity wasn’t it? If that court case gets put to bed and it coincides with further progress on margins, production and robust demand, I reckon this cat might quietly slink off.

He doesn’t seem the type that keeps his short for PR, like Spiegel, who uses his TSLAQ short purely to get on telly when he should really be watching from his mum’s basement. And he’ll stop getting the invites too, as soon as Tesla is consistently throwing out several billion in cashflow and profit per year.

 

[jerry33]

The differences between a regular pickup and cyberpunk will be significant but less than those between ICE of equivalent design.

This doesn't make sense to me. The difference between a regular pickup (assume ICE pickup = regular) and the Cyberpunk are way more than the differences between any two ICE pickups.

 

[Chocochip]

Yeah, I am a little worried the pissing contest will overshadow the news of GF3 pumping out cars. He should have applied more tact in that tweet.

We all know that no amount of diplomacy would discourage the media from taking even the slightest reference that Elon makes to the short-seller community and turning it into "OMG, Elon Musk is on a war path with blah-blah-blah; The unhinged Tesla CEO, known for his habit of smoking pot on various podcasts, just tweeted yada-yada..." They just need an excuse to push out click-bait.

For what it's worth, this particular burn was a lot more refined and polished compared to some of Elon's previous attempts, and it has the added weight of the actual invitation to a member of the investment community to visit the production facilities, rather than just cheap mockery. The mockery is bonus.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This doesn't make sense to me. The difference between a regular pickup (assume ICE pickup = regular) and the Cyberpunk are way more than the differences between any two ICE pickups.

I meant between a regular pickup and cyberpunk pickup both made by Tesla (= both electric), compared to a regular pickup and cyberpunk made by anyone else (= both ICE). Because of the greater percentage of electronics, sensors, software and FSD in Tesla there is a smaller percentage of difference in the mechanics, stampings and moldings.

 

[Zaxxon]

While trees burning unicorns is fun, this is funner:

This Q is now officially in the lead for best-ever in the NL+NO+SP trifecta.

 

[dww12]

We all know that no amount of diplomacy would discourage the media from taking even the slightest reference that Elon makes to the short-seller community and turning it into "OMG, Elon Musk is on a war path with blah-blah-blah; The unhinged Tesla CEO, known for his habit of smoking pot on various podcasts, just tweeted yada-yada..." They just need an excuse to push out click-bait.

For what it's worth, this particular burn was a lot more refined and polished compared to some of Elon's previous attempts, and it has the added weight of the actual invitation to a member of the investment community to visit the production facilities, rather than just cheap mockery. The mockery is bonus.

Like inviting Trump to a climate conference. Pointless, a waste of time and you are further back for extending the effort. Just execute on GF3 and show up to first 10 customers with solar roof. Let unicorn lose all of his money without your acknowledgement. He’s not worth it.

 

[Paracelsus]

EU want to tax imports based on CO2 emissions from production.

Breakingviews - EU can afford to act tough on carbon border taxes

The incoming European Commission president wants to levy the same tax on CO2 emissions from imports as on products made in the single market. That is likely to go down like a roomful of methane with big trading partners such as the United States and China........​

If the top priority was saving the Planet based on taxing Carbon Footprint, this tax would include Brazilian beef.........in fact, it might be the highest taxed item on the list. We shall see if this is protectionism (such as Germany's efforts to keep the Model 3 off their incentive list), or if this list is sincerely focused on creating a more sustainable future. I am very pessimistic about the true intent but would love to be proven wrong (spoiler alert - I want all of us and the Planet to win in the end)


"The EU buys 120,000 tonnes a year of beef from Brazil, about one tenth of its total beef exports, and pays some of the highest prices for prime cuts.

European imports were set to increase due to tariff cuts under a new trade deal between the EU and Mercosur, a South American bloc.

But France and Ireland have also said they would not sign the trade pact unless Brazil tries to stop the blaze."

EU to discuss Brazil beef ban over Amazon fires


Beef generates 27.1 kilos (59.6 lbs) of CO2e per kilo consumed. (Note this does not include transportation/distribution Carbon Footprint to ship Brazilian beef to the EU)

The Impacts - 2011 Meat Eaters Guide | Meat Eater's Guide to Climate Change + Health | Environmental Working Group

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I am a little worried the pissing contest will overshadow the news of GF3 pumping out cars. He should have applied more tact in that tweet.

No, poking the bears is too much fun. This will not negatively affect TSLA, especially while delivering results.

 

[Chocochip]

Like inviting Trump to a climate conference. Pointless, a waste of time and you are further back for extending the effort. Just execute on GF3 and show up to first 10 customers with solar roof. Let unicorn lose all of his money without your acknowledgement. He’s not worth it.

Well, at a minimum it removes the "Tesla Inc. operations are a deeply-guarded secret, and only trusted uber-bullish investors and bloggers are allowed in" narrative. Einhorn would no longer be able to claim that he's forced to guess what's going on with the company, and the breadcrumb trail points to big losses -- he was quite literally invited in to see what's actually going on. If he refuses, his entire short thesis collapses on itself. As far as tactical moves go, this one was brilliant.

 

[JustMe]

As much as I enjoyed Elon's... ummm... open invitation for a visit at Tesla issued to Mr. Unicorn Einhorn, I can already see the news stories popping up on this, framing Elon as an off-the-rails CEO battling with the Shortz, not able to control his temper and addicted to Twitter burns (as adept at it as he arguably is), or some other bull-etron. It's regrettable, as the news is actually great at the moment, with the Model 3 SR+ having just taycan the title for most efficient EV ever (Seth warning).

I totally get it: it's hard to have a product that is not just the most efficient EV, or the best-selling EV, or the fastest-charging EV, or subjectively the best-looking EV, but just overall the BEST EV by a freaking mile, and not be allowed to brag about it or shove it in detractors' faces. So he does. But Wall St. doesn't like bragging, they only like numbers, and any sniff of conflict turns them off. I hope the SP reacts to facts rather than spin today.

Wall Street obviously doesn’t care too much as Tesla currently has a higher market cap than Ford. A tweet like this is perfectly normal behavior for Musk and is hardly concerning that he’s unstable. As others have said, it could be read as an indication that Tesla is having another strong quarter. That to me is a buy signal for the stock, considering the real question in investors minds is not the quality of the product or flippant tweets but the sustainability of their sales and profitability.

 

[RFernatt]

Like inviting Trump to a climate conference. Pointless, a waste of time and you are further back for extending the effort. Just execute on GF3 and show up to first 10 customers with solar roof. Let unicorn lose all of his money without your acknowledgement. He’s not worth it.

Exactly. Actions speak louder than words, so just execute, execute, execute. Don't legitimize the naysayers by dignifying their garbage with acknowledgement. Or, if you do respond, leave it at a professional invitation to learn more. The mockery may be fun for now, but macros can change, things change, and then you have egg on your face. Keep it professional no matter how low the opposition sinks, IMHO, of course.

 

[Speedr117]

Eagerly awaiting the response as well!

 

[JusRelax]

Interestingly, after a fairly long "ban" that was probably initiated back when needy Fred complained about the drop in M3P prices right after he got his, Elon just started acknowledging Electrek again by tweeting one of their articles and replying to Fred's comments. For the longest time Elon would exclusively tweet Teslarati and Clean Technica articles/posts and engage with them while completely ignoring Fred. Who, by the way, was acting a bit like a needy ex-gf, constantly tweeting at Elon. So it seems Electrek has now been re-allowed inside the Circle of Trust.

Pretty sure Elon still has at least somewhat of a disdain for Electrek reporting. He made this statement just two days ago:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[humbaba]

Tesladeath is actually a bull site in disguise. I did the math and it ends up that people die in a Tesla 1/6th of an average ICE. It's hilarious that they keep a record of this stuff.

If by "in disguise" you mean "despite clearly stated intent" I'd recommend going with the latter phrasing. They are extremely clear in the notes at the bottom that their intent is to expose how dangerously unsafe Tesla vehicles are.

While you may have done the math they are counting on readers not doing that. They are specifically guiding readers to a predetermined conclusion.

Ignoring them is the best course. Let them languish in the darkness without attention.

 

[JusRelax]

Don't know if this will have any legs today but it is a known issue Older Teslas May Face Glitch That Affects Screen Use and Charging Ability

There have been some reports on twiiter/reddit (no idea if they are accurate or not) that the constant writing to the eMMC for MCU1 vehicles has been resolved in firmware 2019.32.12.7

 

[jbcarioca]

Because a Tesla has more electronics, sensors, software and FSD than ICE vehicles, all of which can be part of the platform, the difference between two vehicles on the same platform is proportionally less. It is also easy to vary the number of modules in the battery or to add extra motors to alter range and horsepower. The differences between a regular pickup and cyberpunk will be significant but less than those between ICE of equivalent design.

I liked your post but disagree with some of your conclusions. That is, your conclusions were valid only one generation ago, about five years. In the current generation things are vastly different, influences IMHO strongly by Tesla. Examples are in order:
First one of the highest volume cars sold in Brazil is the Chevrolet Onix, a cheap hatchback taht is the best selling hatchback in the country:
Novo Onix Premier 2020: o carro hatch com Wi-Fi da Chevrolet
why waste space here for that?
GM Brazil Suspends Delivery, Recalls Onix Plus Because of Fires | The Rio Times
The English version is short of detail. The recall is to make a Software update. Tesla recent made an OTA update for a similar reason.

Then right now Jaguar I-Pace has OTA updates for BMS and most other functions. The VW BEV platforms will all have that capability as deos the Porsche Taycan. The Jag has segregated updates because the systems obviously are not integrated, but it is OTA. The VAG platforms are known, I am told, to have been integrated by design.

These examples are simply to illustrate that there have been major investments to learn from Tesla success. All those systems are taking years to adopt, so Tesla remains well ahead. However, what we see right now is that the competition is not standing still so platform interchangeability is happening right now. As in the Jaguar and Chevrolet cases this is not necessarily obvious at end-customer level.

FWIW, I am in the process of buying an I-Pace. I have had to show the dealer how to enable OTA updates, since they did not know it was possible. Will Onix owners have the slightest idea that the update to their econobox is happening OTA, but at a dealer? Probably not!

All of us as TSLA investors should be cautious about dismissing competition because they do not have battery capacity and BEV integration experience. ICE itself is in the midst of a technological revolution that is preparing all those sleeper OEMs to cope with Tesla innovation.

Last point. Any of those OEMs which have Formula one or Formula E experience know how to integrate total vehicle management in real time. None of them have scaled those capabilities. Some things have happened such as the I-Pace motors and BMS.

The better these automakers do the better for Tesla! The key is raising BEV adoption, not making Tesla market share of BEVs higher.

 

[humbaba]

We all know that no amount of diplomacy would discourage the media from taking even the slightest reference that Elon makes to the short-seller community and turning it into "OMG, Elon Musk is on a war path with blah-blah-blah; The unhinged Tesla CEO, known for his habit of smoking pot on various podcasts, just tweeted yada-yada..." They just need an excuse to push out click-bait.

For what it's worth, this particular burn was a lot more refined and polished compared to some of Elon's previous attempts, and it has the added weight of the actual invitation to a member of the investment community to visit the production facilities, rather than just cheap mockery. The mockery is bonus.

I was surprised to have a younger (late 20s) person tell me that Musk was unhinged, specifically referencing him being a pot smoker. When I pushed on the pot smoking bit he freely admitted that he had not seen any of the Rogan episode, much less the part in question. He drives a Prius, but in such a fashion there's no earthly way he gets even close to the rated mileage.

Which is to say, I agree with entirely, they will use anything as the basis for exaggeration to the point that it amounts to outright lies. Why? Because it works, and Musk gives them precious little ammunition.

With Ford or GM or VW its like shooting fish in a barrel. Too easy. And besides, they advertise. So its all glowing pieces that seek to minimize or gloss over.

Yeah, there are exceptions (that Der Spiegel article was really good) but it gets tiresome.

So a bit of levity in responding to Einhorn's lies? I think that is a good thing.

 

[JusRelax]

My WAG for the pickup reveal:

1. The pickup will have V2H (vehicle-to-home) capability to power your home during blackouts. It will not come standard, and will not be cheap. Not only can the pickup power your 240v tools, it can literally power your whole house.
2. The pickup will have V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle) capability to power other Teslas in times of need. I don't believe it will come standard either.
3. The pickup will eventually become Tesla's exclusive mobile service vehicle.
4. The pickup will eventually be able to provide mobile service for at least 2 out of every 3 Tesla repairs. Most of the time you will not need to go to Tesla service centers in order to get service done. The Tesla pickup mobile service vehicle will come to either your workplace or home at your convenience.
5. As the pickup ramps up as Tesla mobile service vehicles, Tesla service centers may eventually slowly decline instead of increasing.

 

[woodisgood]

I think Musk is acting strategically, not shooting from the hip emotionally as he may have done in the past. The issue (media disinformation, shorts, etc.) was brought to his attention rather publicly in the last shareholder meeting, and it was clear that he and management were going to devote some attention to addressing the problem in some fashion, even if solutions were not obvious at the time.

Personally I'm in the camp that this is a clever move. Of course, the focus should be on execution, but I think Tesla is firing on all cylinders (har har) in that respect.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

One of the product leads at Tesla posted a Business Insider(!) article on LinkedIn. I let him have it of course. We need to maintain some level of decency.