Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Drama aside, do we have a good answer for the question Einhorn poses about why Tesla's accounts receivable are so high? E.g. time lag involving line of credits? Delayed payment for energy products?

It’s got to be nefarious, underhanded and the like, eh?

 

[StealthP3D]

I hate calling tax breaks based on bringing jobs to a state a "subsidy"
Tesla could have picked another state and I wonder what Sparks Nev would like like today in that event?
At any rate, paying taxes, but just less of them, as incentive to create jobs is not taking money from anyone, so how is this a "subsidy"?

I'm not saying it's a good or bad subsidy (that's a judgement call that was already decided by the Nevada State legislature who decided it was a good subsidy), I'm just saying in the strict sense of the word it's a subsidy.

 

[Fact Checking]

The obvious come back to the latter is that "well, its just a Tesla subsidy in disguise because it lets them raise their sticker price" and since they didn't have any comeback (they just switched talking points, to "Tesla's are bombs, they literally explode" IIRC) and are quite intelligent in the general sense I think it shocked them. How could that be? Despite the individual's intelligence they completely disengage any critical thinking when it comes to EVs. (They also had nothing more intellectual than "nu uh, you stoopid" when I pointed out gasoline, combustion, rates thereof, BMW, etc.)

Sadly, it's much harder to convince someone that they have been fooled, than to fool them in the first place.

(This effect is particularly strong for people who are smart in one field and who tend to think of themselves as smart in every field. Admitting that they were idiots is ... hard.)

The obvious come back to the latter is that "well, its just a Tesla subsidy in disguise because it lets them raise their sticker price"

The comeback to that comeback is that these tax incentives were and are available to all carmakers, not just Tesla. Suggesting that these industry wide tax policy measures are subsidies for Tesla alone is false and disingenuous.

The second comeback is to argue that if you include indirect, broadly granted policies such as industry wide tax policies as "Tesla subsidies", then it's only fair to include the indirect subsidies on the fossil fuel industry side as well, which the IMF has estimated to be 5 trillion dollars globally and 650 billion dollars in the U.S. alone, per year:

US Subsidizes Fossil Fuels To The Tune Of $4.6, $27.4, Or $649 Billion Annually, Depending On Source | CleanTechnica​

That's somewhere around ~$20,000 of lifetime subsidies to ICE car customers per new car, and that doesn't even include the receipts for global warming damage, death and destruction, much of which is yet to come ...

The $7,500 federal tax incentive for EVs didn't even restore the subsidies disadvantage Tesla was facing in the market - let alone give them any sort of unfair advantage.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I hate calling tax breaks based on bringing jobs to a state a "subsidy"
Tesla could have picked another state and I wonder what Sparks Nev would like like today in that event?
At any rate, paying taxes, but just less of them, as incentive to create jobs is not taking money from anyone, so how is this a "subsidy"?

Well it certainly is a subsidy and something we should look to outlaw at the federal level. Perhaps when I'm in charge.

Einhorn is likely regurgitating a common talking point of the NY anti-Dem crowd that Tesla was given all these subsidies to build Buffalo and isn't even going to hire anyone. I found his letter lazy and misinformed. Kind of hard to believe considering he's putting other people's money at risk.

GF2 has very specific headcount and economic activity targets that must be met or there are severe penalties to Tesla. The next big one is in April or so and they should have no problem crushing it now that Solar Roof V3 is out, available, and 40% cheaper.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Agree. And as I said before, the Blazer and Bronco were extremely popular.

Then I just looked at the Roadster 2 and that cool hatchback that everyone loves on the Model S. Put that concept in your head and you've got a lifting (or retracting) top that detaches possibly. Would be really cool if it could dump as an upgrade. Interchangeable bed options (Construction vs ATVs vs Seating).

Is it Christmas yet? Just $1,000 got me started on our Model 3 in 2016. A bit more stock pop would probably trigger a down-payment here. (So yes to that question earlier in the week about feeding stock gains back into Tesla products. That's absolutely a thing.)

I think I've seen camper units that fit in truck beds that have pop out legs so you can drive off and leave the unit behind. Could maybe do something like that, only do it Tesla style. Leverage smart summon and electrically driven legs to automate all the work.

 

[anthonyj]

And now he has an open invitation to every channel to go spread his lies because Elon put him in the news. Guess who’s going to be the guest on CNBC on Monday to talk Tesla instead Kathy to talk about GF3 starting production.

So let him spread lies. The more shorts the better. We need firepower at $389

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm not saying it's a good or bad subsidy (that's a judgement call that was already decided by the Nevada State legislature who decided it was a good subsidy), I'm just saying in the strict sense of the word it's a subsidy.

The Nevada tax break's benefits so far are in the "couple of tens of millions of dollars" range: mouse nuts.

Corporate taxes in the U.S. are ridiculously low to begin with - and Tesla had losses, which removed most of the tax liabilities.

 

[M3Rider]

I'm not saying it's a good or bad subsidy (that's a judgement call that was already decided by the Nevada State legislature who decided it was a good subsidy), I'm just saying in the strict sense of the word it's a subsidy.

I think most people mean Federal credit "subsidy" that still applies to Tesla sales and most probably don't care how much it is, hearing that it's still there.
Starting from the next year though, anybody bringing up subsidies will be probably surprised to find out they don't exist (except for state credits).
That'll be a nice change to add to rebuttals. What subsidy? Everyone else gets it, not Tesla.

 

[ggr]

Or Tesla just moved with the rest of the market at end of day - everything went green.

There was a very clear attempt to push TSLA down about 6 minutes from closing. But it bounced back.

 

[ggr]

Mod: 25 posts about backup power went to Blackout power from car or powerwall (out of main) . --ggr

 

[wipster]

Well not 340, but at least the SP was up on a Friday and that in itself is a positive sign... normally we see a fair piece of profit taking.

Monday should be a winner if GF3 starts real production and delivery, followed by cybertruck on 11/21... maybe we'll enter the big block zone!

 

[wipster]

I’m really not a sophisticated options trader and my approach trading options is to basically buy whatever I fancy based on what I think the stock is going to do. So I’m basically a seat of the pants kind of a trader but I must say in my defense if I’m being honest is I have yet to lose big money on a permanent basis. There have been numerous times in my trading career spanning 21 years that I have lost millions of dollars but I have never failed to make it back even Once - knock on wood (there is always a first time I know)
The most important thing that I look at while selecting my call options is to place the bulk of my trade-in capital in call options which are out of money when I buy tempered with a very high probability of becoming in money before expiration. For example a few months ago I put all my tax free money in Tesla call options With the strike price of $250 when does stock was trading in low 200 range that money has more than doubled already
My biggest position is Tesla calls expiring in June 2021 with $250 a strike price and Tesla calls expiring in January 2021 with $400 strike price

I speculate with a very little portion of my income and way out of money calls like January 20 $700 strike price, June 20 $690 calls etc. With the understanding that I’m willing to lose all of my money that I put in this

Good to see your posts back again TT007!

 

[larmor]

If GS changed mind, most likely it's because of FSD and Tesla network. They don't understand the tech, but they do understand this is not a "head you win a dollar, tail you lose a dollar" scenario. It's a case that head (FSD) you win 10 fold, tail you lose nothing (leading position in EV and energy still has significant value, both are becoming trillion dollar markets).

Early this year shorts managed to drive down the stock, looking back we can see the move was based on lies. Nothing that shorts said turned out to be true. They even shorted the bond to make it look like the company will fail, now the bond is back up too.

In the past, many shorts had a valuation model that Tesla has a hard market cap limit of 80B, they think there is no way such a niche EV maker could become larger than GM+Ford. Because of that faulty model, they were very brave to keep shorting more as the stock goes up. Once they understand this company has a clear path to reach $800B, they will not be so brave to keep adding short position.

I think Tesla's valuation model will be readjusted within the next 12~18 months, so many catalysts are lined up.
Future demand expectation will go up; a lot more people will understand EVs are more compelling than ICE vehicles.
Energy portion will be valued to a positive number instead of zero;
Producing in China and EU can help a lot to reduce cost. Tesla's margin will likely to go up - big surprise for shorts;
FSD is the biggest wild card. I expect this alone to add $100B market cap within 18 months.

Absolutely-- time for GS to get in on the ground floor for data driven FSD, and all the money types want in on the 10x. The market has priced tesla FSD-hardware and software at $0 or less than zero, so the opportunity remains for GS.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There will be a spare tire on our Tesla pickup even if I have to fabricate the first Tesla Pickup spare tire bracket myself.

Thats if Cybertruck even uses pneumatic tires. There's nothing off the table for new tech coming on Nov 21. Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[Zaxxon]

I hate calling tax breaks based on bringing jobs to a state a "subsidy"
Tesla could have picked another state and I wonder what Sparks Nev would look like today in that event?
At any rate, paying taxes, but just less of them, as incentive to create jobs is not taking money from anyone, so how is this a "subsidy"?

I'm not saying it's a good or bad subsidy (that's a judgement call that was already decided by the Nevada State legislature who decided it was a good subsidy), I'm just saying in the strict sense of the word it's a subsidy.

Meh. I hear where you're coming from, but IMO the appropriate comparison is not 'what does Tesla pay in taxes to Sparks/NV under their agreement vs what they'd have paid without the agreement' but rather 'what is the benefit to Sparks/NV under the agreement vs what they'd have seen had Tesla located the GF elsewhere.' Because they'd absolutely have gone elsewhere where they'd have gotten a better deal.

Thus, calling tax abatements and the like a subsidy is a little off to me. In the strict sense of the word it's true, but it's not like the government authorities granted the agreement out of the goodness of their hearts or to help Tesla. They did so because in their analysis it was beneficial to their constituents to do so.

 

[Curt Renz]

There was a very clear attempt to push TSLA down about 6 minutes from closing. But it bounced back.

Good observation. That could be a sign that short sellers are running out of ammunition, and may soon have to agree to unconditional surrender.

 

[Christine69420]

Beef generates 27.1 kilos (59.6 lbs) of CO2e per kilo consumed. (Note this does not include transportation/distribution Carbon Footprint to ship Brazilian beef to the EU)

The Impacts - 2011 Meat Eaters Guide | Meat Eater's Guide to Climate Change + Health | Environmental Working Group

Maybe not anymore. Some danish scientists have put cows on a diet and removed 99% of their methane output.

But now, Professor Mette Olaf Nielsen from the University of Aarhus University's Department of Animal Science, in collaboration with research colleagues from the Department of Veterinary and Animal Science at the University of Copenhagen, has found a substance that seems to almost completely stop methane formation in cows when feed is added to the animals.

- When we tested that lab we saw virtually no methane formation. It was reduced by 99 percent or so, largely eliminating methane production, she says.
​

Source in Norwegian:
Nå finner forskere nytt våpen i kampen mot metanutslipp fra kyr

 

[Artful Dodger]

Heck. Why not

Batteries.

 

[Curt Renz]

Well not 340, but at least the SP was up on a Friday and that in itself is a positive sign... normally we see a fair piece of profit taking...

Indeed, a daily gain of 0.48% is quite acceptable. If that were to continue for the next 250 trading days, next year on this date TSLA would be at $1116.

 

[KSilver2000]

Starting from the next year though, anybody bringing up subsidies will be probably surprised to find out they don't exist (except for state credits).

Starting December 3, 2019, A LOT of people (I would safely say at least 95% of car buyers) in CA will get a surprise when they get less—or none—state rebate than they planned for buying any kind of plug-in.

Here are the rebate amount changes starting Dec 3:
PHEV $1,500 —> $1,000
BEV $2,500 —> $2,000
FCEV $5,000 —> $4,500

Additionally:

• Most importantly, rebates will only be eligible for cars with MSRP of $60,000 or less, except for FCEVs.
• There will be a limit of just one rebate per person/entity, down from two.
• 3 months time limit to file for rebate, down from 18 months.

And yes, you read that correctly, it’s starting December 3, not 31, or January 1.