Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

So do you guys think the SP is down due to the negative reaction the truck is getting? Or, because it's not being released until 2021/2022, when there will likely already be 2, 3, or even 4 other electric trucks available?

Personally, I think the 2021/2022 estimated production date is what is scaring investors. I think most people expected late 2020 or early 2021. Musk has been talking about this truck for years now. And they had to throw it together in the last 8 weeks before the reveal (per MotorTrend). I think that is scaring investors more than anything. Tesla is not looking like the nimble car manufacturer everyone thought, that would be able to spit new models out quickly. Rivian, Lordstown, and Ford will likely be producing electric trucks long before Tesla's truck reaches the market.

 

[shrspeedblade]

The truck fiasco is like the 3 vs. Y thing. The Y should sell in larger quantities since SUV/crossovers sell more than sedan everywhere. So why bring out the model 3 first? Bring out the Y first and reap the rewards in sales.

In this case the truck will be a huge fiasco, not at all unlike the broken glass. First they should have brought out something practical and Tesla, rather than going whole hog on being "different" and creating a vehicle they will be lucky to sell 100,000 of total only to bring out a more conventional vehicle that people will be willing to buy and drive. Even then the conventional truck will likely be very conventional since Tesla won't have the freedom to experiment with the truck anymore. Fail at this twice and you would be toast.

This is exactly why the other automakers will do well once they start bringing out their EVs. They know how to sell cars to people. They know what people want. The truck clearly shows that Musk doesn't.

The Hummer H2 sold pretty well- and the Cybertruck makes it look like Little Lord Fauntleroy all while getting about 90 MPGe.
Will it sell every one they can make and drive other manufacturers to come out with more traditional, electric trucks? YES

That kind of sounds like a mission statement I read somewhere......

 

[Electric0rgan]

I wish Elon would sell the practical advantages of the truck during his presentation. Presumably they choose this shape, materials etc for a reason, but he didn't explain it well. Stainless steel = no rust, would be a great point (but wasn't made). Stainless steel = stop 9mm rounds, is not something 99.9% care about.

Can't stop rounds aimed at the windows!

No, it may not rust, although that's not guaranteed with stainless steel. Seems they focused on strength. It can still corrode in salt like every other car. Stainless will be very expensive to repair when in an accident which will damage it unlike the relatively light blows Franz was giving the car. Notice the other truck door didn't get big dents in it.

Maybe make a few dramatic points for effect, but they already had it covered with the sledgehammer. Felt like the whole presentation was obscure points, while showing almost nothing related to actually using the truck (e.g. inside, back)

Bingo. But that's about the demo and not really the truck. It may be a good truck in many ways, but the look isn't going to fly. Especially once there are more than a few in a given area it will stop looking 'cool" and will go back to everyone's first impression, looking weird.

What's with the finish on the truck anyway? The DeLorean had a nice even finish. The truck seems a bit mottled.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is anyone else annoyed at Tesla’s specs that say 110v and 220v AC outlets? They will be 120v and 240v!!!

 

[2virgule5]

There seem to be more and more pictures in test locations showing up out there. That tug a war thing with the Ford was kinda entertaining.

Seriously. I swear every time I look at this thing my penis gets bigger. My wife has already printed off a picture and taped it to the ceiling.

Just sayin...we are really starting to like it.

How come you did not complain that it does not have Chademo charging? Took the 500mi version maybe?

 

[Remus]

So we probably looking at model S exceeding 1000km range in there years and model 3 getting very close.

1000 km

And the stock dropped 20 bucks

Very reasonable.

 

[Drax7]

The issue is he told us exactly what this was going to be, why act surprised when it ended up exactly as he predicted?

I will like the design when the stock price moves up, until then
I will dislike it.

 

[Pezpunk]

So do you guys think the SP is down due to the negative reaction the truck is getting? Or, because it's not being released until 2021/2022, when there will likely already be 2, 3, or even 4 other electric trucks available?

Personally, I think the 2021/2022 estimated production date is what is scaring investors. I think most people expected late 2020 or early 2021. Musk has been talking about this truck for years now. And they had to throw it together in the last 8 weeks before the reveal (per MotorTrend). I think that is scaring investors more than anything. Tesla is not looking like the nimble car manufacturer everyone thought, that would be able to spit new models out quickly. Rivian, Lordstown, and Ford will likely be producing electric trucks long before Tesla's truck reaches the market.

the stock is down because the market is reflexively recoiling to the non-mainstream design and the trainwreck glass demo fail. nobody's worried about the release date today.

Let the market have a laugh at the memes. The truth, of course, is that none of this affects Tesla's bottom line or long-term outlook. My plan to increase my share count by selling before the reveal and buying back in after has already worked.

 

[humbaba]

Can't stop rounds aimed at the windows!

No, it may not rust, although that's not guaranteed with stainless steel. Seems they focused on strength. It can still corrode in salt like every other car. Stainless will be very expensive to repair when in an accident which will damage it unlike the relatively light blows Franz was giving the car. Notice the other truck door didn't get big dents in it.



Bingo. But that's about the demo and not really the truck. It may be a good truck in many ways, but the look isn't going to fly. Especially once there are more than a few in a given area it will stop looking 'cool" and will go back to everyone's first impression, looking weird.

What's with the finish on the truck anyway? The DeLorean had a nice even finish. The truck seems a bit mottled.

Wait, so when everyone has a Cybertruck you think it will suddenly seem weird rather than the new normal? Cognitive dissonance much?

 

[Nocturnal]

Anyone who thinks Ford has a prayer of releasing an EV truck with specs anywhere closer to this for anywhere near the same price is nuts. The E-150 will be an anemic joke or cost $150k. This design is what allowed them to have these specs at this price point.

I must be a kid then.

I can't remember wanting something so badly! Dang! Rust proof exoskeleton? Roomy inside? Corners like it's on rails? Drives over large curbs? I want!

I'll be parking this one in the tightest parking spaces available and not worrying about door dings.

I happen to agree with them. I would like a few small tweaks, especially the rear quarter panel. It need something to break up the panel. I'd rock this beast, and since I have a reservation I have 2 years to justify it financially.

 

[Tslynk67]

Needless to say, a Tweet from Tesla that 100k or 200k orders have been taken would work wonders right now.

I know a few sold shares in anticipation of a drop, but I would never do that - I held all the way down to $178 and this doesn't phase me at all, plus if it wasn't for shorty, we'd be up - people are loving this design.

But what might have been a smart move would have been to sell my Jan 21 options, then buy back in at a lower price, they were up 8x yesterday morning. Note for the future.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Oh, gawd. It's like the engineering of this truck went right over your head.

As I've said previously, the worldwide pickup market is so huge, Tesla won't even be able to fill 10% of it for years to come!

Well, I'll start listening to ANYTHING you say when the SP reaches an ATH before the Model Y production date. You're very confident that you know everything today that you will ever know - and it's all 100% right (and everyone who disagrees is a moron). So, we're going to see how smart you REALLY are. I'm not saying you're wrong - I'm humble enough to know that I don't know everything, nor have a crystal ball. So, I could easily be wrong, and you, right. Time will tell.

 

[JRP3]

It can still corrode in salt like every other car.

No it actually can't corrode in salt like every other car, that's why marine fittings are made of stainless steel. The truck isn't going to be submerged in salt water for most of it's life.

 

[Electric0rgan]

The Hummer H2 sold pretty well- and the Cybertruck makes it look like Little Lord Fauntleroy all while getting about 90 MPGe.
Will it sell every one they can make and drive other manufacturers to come out with more traditional, electric trucks? YES

That kind of sounds like a mission statement I read somewhere......

Oh, so the Tesla truck which isn't even out yet and no one knew what it would look like until last night will make other companies release the electric trucks they've already announced and/or revealed? Isn't that a bit of reversing the cart and horse?

At this point there is no reason to believe such a bizarre looking vehicle will sell "every one they make" unless they set up a line in the spare parts room for the model 3.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He said unconventional and might not be popular. No matter what the reason the end result was clearly laid out, people may not like it. You should not be surprised that people may not like it. I think enough people will like it that they'll sell all they can make as fast as they can make them, and that's all that matters.

The more I look at this thing, the more I think it's a few tweaks away from being cool. The lighting and posture of the vehicle they chose last night was moronic, looks much more rational driving down the road in the videos.

Definitely needs something other than a straight line at the base of the tub. That one fix alone would make a world of difference. Again....anyone besides a nutjob engineer would have likely made this design change and dealt with the minuscule impact on drag.

Build me a futuristic Jeep CJ/TJ out of these materials and technology? I'll buy one today.

 

[WMTribe90]

I believe Elon is simply unleashing the power of the pyramid. I am a little worried about infringing on any patents Sabre may have though. /s

 

[Pezpunk]

Needless to say, a Tweet from Tesla that 100k or 200k orders have been taken would work wonders right now.

i doubt they have any idea how many orders they have -- looks like at least half the people on this thread accidentally put in between 3 and 5 orders due to website issues last night. probably a widespread issue.

 

[2virgule5]

LMAO buying back all my next week calls at 90% discount thanks guys. This truck is freaking sick and I’m not joking. I seriously hope they follow through with it.

Tsss, you Millennials...

 

[JRP3]

I will like the design when the stock price moves up, until then
I will dislike it.

It's not about you liking the design or not, it's you being surprised that the design was radical, polarizing, and not appealing to the masses when Elon clearly stated it would be radical, polarizing, and not appealing to the masses.

 

[bhtooefr]

90 MPGe with those tires and those aerodynamics? I doubt it, not when a Model X Long Range gets 96. Yes, RWD will be more efficient if it uses a permanent magnet motor, but...

250 miles on a 100 kWh usable (not nominal) pack is about 84 MPGe, and I'd guess that's optimistic. 70-80 MPGe for the dual motor probably, so 126-144 kWh for that, and 65-75 MPGe for the triple-motor, so 225-260 kWh for that?

And I'd also guess that the triple motor's pack is exactly 2x the dual motor's pack.