Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

So do you guys think the SP is down due to the negative reaction the truck is getting? Or, because it's not being released until 2021/2022, when there will likely already be 2, 3, or even 4 other electric trucks available?

Personally, I think the 2021/2022 estimated production date is what is scaring investors. I think most people expected late 2020 or early 2021.

People expecting 2020 were deluding themselves. 2020 will be all about the Y and ramping Shanghai, while starting GF Berlinish construction. The plate is full. The batteries are claimed.

2021 we now have the Semi, the Roadster, the Cybertruck, continued Y ramping, and the GF Berlinish production.

Late 2021-2022 makes perfect sense, and frankly anyone that suggested earlier was either not paying attention or not grokking the situation.

 

[Unpilot]

$700 today?

 

[JRP3]

Build me a futuristic Jeep CJ/TJ out of these materials and technology? I'll buy one today.

You aren't the target.

 

[jeewee3000]

So do you guys think the SP is down due to the negative reaction the truck is getting? Or, because it's not being released until 2021/2022, when there will likely already be 2, 3, or even 4 other electric trucks available?

Personally, I think the 2021/2022 estimated production date is what is scaring investors. I think most people expected late 2020 or early 2021. Musk has been talking about this truck for years now. And they had to throw it together in the last 8 weeks before the reveal (per MotorTrend). I think that is scaring investors more than anything. Tesla is not looking like the nimble car manufacturer everyone thought, that would be able to spit new models out quickly. Rivian, Lordstown, and Ford will likely be producing electric trucks long before Tesla's truck reaches the market.

The estimated production date has nothing to do with the SP drop IMO.

It's the typical bear raid in the sense that they - as usual - pretend to be shocked by something Tesla does, completely ignoring the fact that Elon has warned about the polarizing design of the Cybertruck.

Looking around online it is obvious that some people hate it and some people love it. Shorts are just jumping on the negativity to try and depress the SP as much as possible, giving the smart shorts (yes, they exist) a great opportunity to cover before the Q4 and battery investor day.

 

[lklundin]

Just wanted to point out that for today, max pain per opricot.com is 345$, i.e. higher than the current SP...

 

[StealthP3D]

Is anyone else annoyed at Tesla’s specs that say 110v and 220v AC outlets? They will be 120v and 240v!!!

I noticed that. It's another trap to get the naysayers on forums to focus on stuff nobody is going to care about. As in: "Wow, Tesla is really ignorant and behind the times in electricity, don't they know the 110V and 220V standards were superseded years ago?"

 

[JRP3]

90 MPGe with those tires

Those tires may be optional, might come with more efficient tires as standard.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

How come you did not complain that it does not have Chademo charging? Took the 500mi version maybe?

Heh heh. Well, I assume the Tesla adapter will work with it soooooo.

 

[humbaba]

in the video, it sounded like the driver said he put it into low gear. Having multiple gears would definitely be a new thing

 

[Electric0rgan]

So do you guys think the SP is down due to the negative reaction the truck is getting? Or, because it's not being released until 2021/2022, when there will likely already be 2, 3, or even 4 other electric trucks available?

Personally, I think the 2021/2022 estimated production date is what is scaring investors. I think most people expected late 2020 or early 2021. Musk has been talking about this truck for years now. And they had to throw it together in the last 8 weeks before the reveal (per MotorTrend). I think that is scaring investors more than anything. Tesla is not looking like the nimble car manufacturer everyone thought, that would be able to spit new models out quickly. Rivian, Lordstown, and Ford will likely be producing electric trucks long before Tesla's truck reaches the market.

I'm an investor and I never expected the H2... I mean Tesla truck before 2022. 2020 is about ramping up China factory and getting the model Y into production at all. 2021 will be about ramping up model Y production. Then there is the semi which I thought was before the pickup, but maybe not. Tesla's plans are always nebulous. Still, 2021/22 is a reasonable and believable time frame. I really don't think anyone believed a 2020 date.

No one can "spit out" new cars. Cars are complex and highly optimized for volume production. That takes time no matter who you are... at least if you want a good car and you want to make money.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Not sure if serious.

He's serious. I think this guy could convince himself that Musk's body odor after a 18 hour day smells awesome and should be bottled up and sold (he's definitely buy it). Oh, and he intentionally forgot to put on deodorant to produce that smell.

It's really over the top and bizarre. About as bizarre as the people who post on Fox news who still think an EV gets 50 miles per charge and catches on fire daily. One extreme to the other. I'm not sure why people think being critical of something Musk/Elon do means you're anti-Tesla. I hated the falcon wing doors from day 1 (because of design/warranty cost and delays they caused) - and got chastised for saying so - then a year later, Musk said the same exact thing.

 

[kbeckley]

I wish Elon had mentioned that the stainless steel is meant to match the million mile lifetime of the drive train. Last truck you will ever own -good thing it updates itself.

Two things can set Tesla so far apart:
1. Affortable batteries that can go 800km. Clearly they need time for this still as all the vehicles that need this (roaster II, semi, pickup) seem to be late 2021. I hope the risks for the chemistry that achieves that are now low - i.e. out of the lab and in engineering.
2. Functional (safer) city FSD any time next year.

 

[azaz]

Twitter

“Remember when airpods were first announced and everyone laughed at how dumb they looked? Now you walk through a crowd and it's easier to count the people without them than with them. What I'm trying to say it the #Cybertruck is going to sell... A lot”

 

[canoemore]

I think it's interesting how Tesla invited Motor Trend to do such an in-depth look into the development in the lead up to this. Maybe they've done that for past products, I just don't recall.

 

[sundaymorning]

The Hummer H2 sold pretty well- and the Cybertruck makes it look like Little Lord Fauntleroy all while getting about 90 MPGe.
Will it sell every one they can make and drive other manufacturers to come out with more traditional, electric trucks? YES

That kind of sounds like a mission statement I read somewhere......

This truck is from the military lineup of the future. Love it, just love it; and I’m not a truck guy (far from it) but I want one badly now. Especially when taking road trips, having that 9mm bullet proof exoskeleton gives me a peace of mind. While Tesla didn’t hit it out of the park by conforming to everyone else’s taste of what a traditional truck should be like, they won’t have to compete with other truck companies for the same traditional buyers. This truck just looks bad@55, if you fell in love with it like it did, you won’t even think about touching another traditional truck.

Really, just compare the two trucks in the image and tell me which is better. One looks like a Lamborghini for $40k and the other looks like a classic car from looney toons.

 

[Electric0rgan]

in the video, it sounded like the driver said he put it into low gear. Having multiple gears would definitely be a new thing

That won't be a complete surprise. Like a dirt bike I had a long time ago, two ranges. Making a motor that can handle the extreme torque of the low end and the high RPM of the high end is not so easy. To get more from each end (which is more important in a truck) it helps to have two speeds like the Hi/Lo in 4WD in many trucks. Then the motor doesn't have to handle as much torque and can be lighter.

 

[EVMeister]

Anybody guess what organ Electric0rgan is?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

From an EV mission perspective, I'm not sure I like the path Elon chose with this vehicle. Making a $40k truck might actually push legacy carriers into even further resistance. There's no way any legacy carmaker can make a compelling truck with range at anywhere near that price, so where's their incentive to move?

I'd rather see a signature $120k ultra-high-end, $70k high-end, followed by the promise of a "sub-$50k base model". That plan would have sold the same number of trucks, greatly increased margins, and pushed the legacy carriers to transition their entire lineup and attack the middle price tier.

Isn't that the traditional Tesla sales model? Why did we do the opposite this time? We're about to see Jay-Z driving around in a $40k truck. He has more money than that.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Anybody guess what organ Electric0rgan is?

Technically the brain can sense electromagnetism, but I doubt it's that.

In honor of this crazy cybertruck design reveal....I vote we allow a one day amnesty for all newly registered trolls. Have at it!

"It's not even really bulletproof!!?!?!!!!!"

 

[shrspeedblade]

What you gonna do with 5 trucks

If you want to be a (small) angel investor, message me directly.