Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, 146K was 7 hrs ago. Its more like 170K reservations for Cybertruck by now.

Not sure they are all ready to buy with so little skin in the game. However, I don't think people would cough up $100 if they knew they wouldn't buy it. So these are all potential sales.

Myself, if the deposit were $1K or more, I'd probably wait and see how $TSLA does over the next year, then buy one. I also want to check out the Y, but it doesn't seem utility enough for me.

So I adjusted my original order to add FSD. That's worth it right there. They confirmed with a file that wouldn't open though.

 

[Buckminster]

How many Cybertruck buyers are going to upgrade?

Some will buy the dual motor and then trade in for the tri motor a year or two later.

Others will be going crazy with the options:
Colours, camper, trailer, cyberquad and more to come.

 

[NicoV]

Lol, the F-117 Nighthawk was low-radar observable in part because it was covered with RADAR Absorbent Materials (RAM).

Cybertruck is constructed of RADAR Reflective Materials (AF).

Its gonna lite up the po-po like a Christmas tree...

Cheers!

Quick, time to start a company that sells RAM wraps!

 

[[email protected]]

Since the Cybertruck lacks paint, the reliability score on Consumer Reports would be through the roof! At least 110/100

Are you kidding me? Tomorrow's Consumer Reports headline: "Cybertruck not recommended: Paint so thin you can see the bare metal!"

 

[Dutchie]

All those flat surfaces give the potential for ART. As in railroad boxcar graffiti art. Canvas! TRUCK TATTOOS ANYONE?

Now we're talking!

View attachment 480650

I guess one can easily wrap it yourself with all these flat surfaces.

 

[SpaceCash]

Hmmm, what's that hanging from the ceiling?

wait holy sugar could that be the conventional?? Nice spot

I hope they never produce that

 

[Lycanthrope]

I don't know if they're sequential. They coordinated timing and were still 119 places apart.

Let's say they orders differed by a minute (could @Lycanthrope and @LN1_Casey confirm max variance between order timing?), that would mean orders would still be going up by 7k per hour (168k per day), which is too much.

I wonder if there is a gap in the order numbers, e.g. each order number is three higher than the last. Tesla could have also just said that the next order number is the previous order plus a random number between 1 and 5, or something like that to obfuscate the real interest.

If we saw a list of sequential order numbers I think the sequential theory would be easier to believe.

I pressed the order confirm exactly on the stroke of 10:45 - going by my Apple Watch, which I believe is rather accurate

 

[Lycanthrope]

I don't know if they're sequential. They coordinated timing and were still 119 places apart.

Let's say they orders differed by a minute (could @Lycanthrope and @LN1_Casey confirm max variance between order timing?), that would mean orders would still be going up by 7k per hour (168k per day), which is too much.

I wonder if there is a gap in the order numbers, e.g. each order number is three higher than the last. Tesla could have also just said that the next order number is the previous order plus a random number between 1 and 5, or something like that to obfuscate the real interest.

If we saw a list of sequential order numbers I think the sequential theory would be easier to believe.

Maybe someone here with more free time than me could setup a shared Google spreadsheet and we can start populating it with our order times and RN's - this would very quickly give an indication of any contiguity, no?

 

[Buckminster]

Just updated this thread following the reveal:
Dry powder / milestones

Two things came to mind:

1. I added a line for Munro's Cybertruck cost estimate - so looking forward to that!
2. End of 21/22 is a long way off - so much happening between now and then - takes your breath away. I am finding it hard to believe that the RWD and AWD variants will use the existing battery. Could the year long wait be for another reason:?

• New motor design?
• Double stack module design or production ramp following roadster intro?
• Side benefit - forces some buyers to make two purchases. Dual motor then upgrade to tri?

 

[Fact Checking]

Lol, the F-117 Nighthawk was low-radar observable in part because it was covered with RADAR Absorbent Materials (RAM).

Cybertruck is constructed of RADAR Reflective Materials (AF).

Its gonna lite up the po-po like a Christmas tree...

Cheers!

While it is true that the F-117 was covered with radar absorbing paint (a metallic rubber compound AFAIK), the sharp angles and flat surfaces were also reflecting away radar pulses that made it through the radar absorbing paint.

Flat, polished metal surfaces will mirror photons that have a wavelength smaller than the surface, like they do in visible wavelengths:

reducing the radar signature.

Most airplanes have round surfaces facing the airstream:

Those round, flat metallic surfaces of the wings and nose of commercial aircraft will reflect radar pulses right back at the radar station or attacking/defending aircraft that is sending them.

The F-117 reflects most of these photons up or down, due to the flat mirror effect:

A third radar signature concern for stealth aircraft is "edge diffraction" of the trailing/flap side of the wing (cm wavelength radar photons can only be reflected imperfectly and their wave nature creates diffraction), which the F-117 solved via the characteristic zig-zag pattern:

So with all that in mind, here's my estimate of the Cybertruck's radar signature:

• Flat angled nose and hood will reflect away radar and reduce radar signature.
• Sharp edges perpendicular to the airflow will increase forward radar signature.

TLDR: While I'd expect the Cybertuck have a lower radar signature than similarly sized conventional trucks, the SpaceX Options Package or the Aquatic Options Package will be essential to reliably ... skip over radar traps.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I pressed the order confirm exactly on the stroke of 10:45 - going by my Apple Watch, which I believe is rather accurate

I was waiting for 45 minute mark, but I was reading the truck description, so maybe 45 minute and 10-15 second for myself. Edit: I'm also registered in the states, technically, but I don't know if that mattered.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I was waiting for 45 minute mark, but I was reading the truck description, so maybe 45 minute and 10-15 second for myself. Edit: I'm also registered in the states, technically, but I don't know if that mattered.

Thanks to both of you for replying. I think that reduces the timing difference down to a max of 30 seconds even allowing for differences in internet latency and fee processing times.

With that kind of variance we would have been looking at a reservation rate of c.14k per hour. Which is definitely too high. However I don't think too much of a conclusion could be drawn as there is likely natural fluctuations in reservation frequency when measuring over such a short time horizon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Quick, time to start a company that sells RAM wraps!

Pifft!

radar absorbing material, radar absorbing material Suppliers and Manufacturers at Alibaba.com

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Thanks to both of you for replying. I think that reduces the timing difference down to a max of 30 seconds even allowing for differences in internet latency and fee processing times.

With that kind of variance we would have been looking at a reservation rate of c.14k per hour. Which is definitely too high. However I don't think too much of a conclusion could be drawn as there is likely natural fluctuations in reservation frequency when measuring over such a short time horizon.

It probably could have been a better indicator if there was more than just two of us timing it out. Like 4 or 5 would have been ideal.

 

[Lessmog]

Hummer

Hummer was a Bummer,
but People are Dummer

..just saying. Cheers!!

Around here, Hummer means Lobster (an important catch in season).
Which also has an exoskeleton! The big top part of which is called Carapace and must be a certain size for the catch to be legal. Cyber Car-a-pax, seats six

Also just saying.

 

[Dagger]

Update from Alter Viggo on Twitter

 

[SpaceCash]

Space Cash..... Read my new post.

Thanks for the info! I used to work in Norfolk VA for my Navy helicopter squadron HM-15

I feel this is on. And I'm so stoked

 

[lklundin]

Does anyone have an idea, what are these reinforced concrete blocks found among the trees at the GF4 site?

#Gf4 Gigafactory4 on Twitter

BTW, previous comments here regarding the GF4 site seemed to assume that the site was also a forest during WW2.
While that could be the case, the pine plantation that is currently there is surely post-WW2.

 

[lklundin]

The cost to bulletproof a car depends on several variables, such as the type of vehicle and the level of protection that you desire. The general cost can range from $40,000 upwards of $100,000 - that's the cost of the upgrade. Tesla has it included, kind of.

Unlike for normal cars, I have to imagine it would be easier and cheaper to upgrade the Cybertruck to withstand also high-velocity rounds (9mm are really comparatively easy to stop). Taking that thought to its logical conclusion:

Think about the marketing value of a Tesla Cybertruck variant getting into the
US Presidential State Car market...

 

[Artful Dodger]

In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946: They looked upon what they had created, and saw it was Goodenough.

On the 2nd day (in 1950), VW brought forth the T1 Transporter. And it was also Goodenough.

Concealed from view beneath the shell of these disparate vehicles was a single skateboard design that looked like this one:

Lo, 70 yrs ago, as VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. Verily, they saw they had a perfectly usable one already, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and doublecabs over the next decade.

Nor did they waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, building millions of Bugs and Buses, thereby becoming the world's largest maker of autos.

This is what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense to create and manufacture a new line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and sub-compact cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture until all creation knows the name TESLA. And they will look like origami works of art for a new century.

The era of Tesla as solely the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from a midget manufacturor of 0.36M cars in 2019 to 20M cars per year by 2029. And by their children, you shall know them.

Place your bets. So sayeth the Elon of Mars.