Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform?
Semi customers will be even more focussed on cost of ownership and utility so the manufacturing cost savings from this new method could make even more sense than for Pickup.
It would also mean no need for a paint shop installed at GF1 and lower capex generally for Semi. It's also likely going to be a much more modular production line where capacity can be added incrementally.
I'm sure all Tesla's extensive Semi Powertrain testing over the past 3 years will still be relevant, and I think they can be confident in the durability of the stainless steel body without years of further prototype testing.
Semi customers will be even more focussed on cost of ownership and utility so the manufacturing cost savings from this new method could make even more sense than for Pickup.
It would also mean no need for a paint shop installed at GF1 and lower capex generally for Semi. It's also likely going to be a much more modular production line where capacity can be added incrementally.
I'm sure all Tesla's extensive Semi Powertrain testing over the past 3 years will still be relevant, and I think they can be confident in the durability of the stainless steel body without years of further prototype testing.
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In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946:
They looked upon it, and saw it was good enough. So in 1950, VW brought out the first T1 Transporter.
View attachment 480692
Hidden underneath the shells of both vehicles was a skateboard that looked like this:
View attachment 480693
70 yrs ago, when VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. They had a perfectly usable one, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and crew cabs over the next decade.
But they didn't waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, and built millions of Bugs and Buses, becoming the world's largest carmaker.
That's what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense, to build out a line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and mini-cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture. And look like origami artwork.
The era of Tesla as soley the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from 0.36M cars produced in 2019 to 20M cars produced in 2029. And they'll move fast.
Bet on it.
Wonderful post!
Another lens through which to view the CT (and I agree most likely all future Teslas) is a completely new design for Alien Dreadnought. If one views the factory as the real product and walking through the factory as being able to look at the product in minute detail, imagine how much more impressive the Cybertruck production lines look compared to AD v0.5.
The question is are we looking at v2.0 or V3.0?
Dude, I thought this was the Cybertruck thread. That's no Cyberfactory!
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Alas, I am AD v2.0
But Alien Dreadnaught is alive and stirring in the hearts of men (and women and esp. kids. Kidz squeal when they see a Tesla the way an old Mustang used to squeal its tires 55 yrs ago).
Peace!
lascavarian
Member
Thanks to those researching the XY fabrication process.
Combining XY with additive methods will work well for low volume fabrication on Mars. The pieces just keep coming together to make the Mars venture advance.
Looks like the starships themselves will become the raw materials for on-planet fabrication.
Combining XY with additive methods will work well for low volume fabrication on Mars. The pieces just keep coming together to make the Mars venture advance.
Looks like the starships themselves will become the raw materials for on-planet fabrication.
"When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, 'Nah, what's wrong with a horse?' That was a huge bet he made, and it worked." - Elon Musk
This is gold: https://twitter.com/StormSmithx/status/1198269680110190592 Look at the reply
For reasonably high energy rounds you could put an energy absorption / catch layer on the inside; the stainless, even if it can't catch a round on its own, will surely deform it / send it spinning, unless you're talking very high energy rounds. Ceramic is ideal for this role, but as far as metals go, hardened 301 stainless is certainly up there.
If you really want to go for the military market ,the thick, angular stainless hull should make it very easy to attach external armour, even reactive armour, to it (there's also some non-explosive reactive armour varieties if needed, which can even go on the inside). Military market would want it jacked up and with a V-hull added, though.
The windows, while designed to be damage resistant, do not appear to be bulletproof glass. One would have to replace them with actual bulletproof glass.
The angular style is a result of them wanting to armour the vehicle, as you can't realistically stamp 3mm 301 stainless without rapidly destroying your tooling. No need to armour a semi.
Yes, the pickup approach saves on tooling, but it also comes with really big costs of their own. That thick stainless is expensive, in terms of raw material costs.
jkirkwood001
Supporting Member
You're probably right, @dqd88 . But Tesla's would be thrilled to capture 10% of the NA pickup market. That's a reasonable target since there will be nothing else like it. Re my other post about drag night in Alabama, I'm imagining one guy shows up in a Cybertruck, of course everyone comes over to check it out because it's more sensational than all the other pimped-out rides, and then he blows every other truck away at the drag strip. You KNOW that'll convince some of his friends to get one. But we won't know for sure until it goes into production.
I really don't think they set out to build an armoured vehicle. They set out to re-design the car manufacturing process from the bottom up to save capex and COGs. It just so happened that the end result of folding stainless steel turned out to result in an armoured vehicle. And then they took this further to make it a selling point.
I would roughly guess that the CyberTruck COGs savings are $5-10k from going with this new architecture over a traditional manufacturing process and materials. I would love for Tesla to release a blog explaining in more detail though so we can get a better cost estimate. The materials may be more expensive but they could equally be cheaper - Elon has said the SpaceX stainless steel used in Starship (and now CyberTruck) is just $3 per kg, but the depreciation, component and labour costs are going to be far cheaper.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I believe the angular style is the result of them wanting to use folded stainless steel exoskeleton, which according to @Krugerrand requires almost no tooling, just a roll mill and laser cutters for the stainless steel panels. Very little welding is required, which all but eliminates three of the most capex intensive parts of a car manufacturing pipeline: the stamp lines, the body shop and the paint shop.
That is why the entry price of Cybertruck is so low, despite 3mm stainless steel: the stainless steel is utilized in a very mass efficient manner: it's both external skin/panels (which all cars need) and the frame, in one.
I.e. the "stainless steel exoskeleton" has in fact a triple role:
- external aerodynamic surface (not as good as a Model S but certainly better than traditional pickup truck cabs)
- external load bearing exoskeleton, replaces the frame
- external skin, replaces car chassis panels
The fourth role: bullet protection and probably unprecedented side crash and high density object intrusion protection factor (trees, poles, engines of other cars, etc.), is mostly just a happy side effect: make it much thinner and the exoskeleton would buckle, vibrate (noisily) and dent easily.
With all that in mind I agree with @ReflexFunds that they should take a good look at a stainless steel Semi Truck - especially as commercial fleet operators would pay a handsome premium for stainless steel vehicles.
+50% premium for stainless steel "never needs a repaint, never corrodes" commercial vehicles would be easily justified - like it is for stainless steel professional kitchenware which costs more like a +200% or +300% premium.
The counter-argument would be that the steel frame of semi tractors is incredibly strongly constructed, to pull up to 40 tons of loads, which might not be easily replaced by an exoskeleton design. Also, the Semi is much more battery pack and powertrain cost dominated, the price of the cab is much smaller than for pickup trucks or regular cars.
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In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946: They looked upon what they had created, and saw it was Goodenough.
On the 2nd day (in 1950), VW brought forth the T1 Transporter. And it was also Goodenough.
View attachment 480692
Concealed from view beneath the shell of these disparate vehicles was a single skateboard design that looked like this one:
View attachment 480693
Lo, 70 yrs ago, as VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. Verily, they saw they had a perfectly usable one already, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and doublecabs over the next decade.
Nor did they waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, building millions of Bugs and Buses, thereby becoming the world's largest maker of autos.
This is what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense to create and manufacture a new line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and sub-compact cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture until all creation knows the name TESLA. And they will look like origami works of art for a new century.
The era of Tesla as solely the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from a midget manufacturor of 0.36M cars in 2019 to 20M cars per year by 2029. And by their children, you shall know them.
Place your bets. So sayeth the Elon of Mars.
While I agree with your post, the VW Beetle was actually introduced in 1938 - i.e. in quite a different era...
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Prunesquallor
His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Cybertruck + FSD = Land Drones. My prediction: the military subsidizes CyberGiga at Munich, ready to churn out tens of thousands of these in case of aggression from the east. That bed would provide great bolt-down points for artillery, Gauss cannon, whatever. Combined with Starlink, what could go wrong?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I think this depends on whether an exoskeleton can pull the 40 tons loads that is required of semi tractors. In particular the overlapping form of most trailers:
The attachment point "8" goes well below the trailer, and it might not be possible to avoid building a steel frame for the Semi Truck that transfers load from the rear axles to the attachment point - at which point you might as well make a lighter cabin of aluminum or composites, to save on mass.
Thanks for your service.....I am a Army Veteran also.....Computed data for SPECIAL WEAPONS..... The BIG ONE.......
Something tells me this Cybertruck will float and maybe even power itself through water.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
No, the war interupted the rollout. No "people's cars" were delivered in accordance with the Deutsche Arbiter's savings plan. Volkswagenwerk Braunschweig was pressed into miliary manufacturing for the duration, and made beetle-like command and scout cars like the Kübelwagen and the Schwimmwagen.
It was a British Army Officer, Maj. Ivan Hurst, who resurrected the war ravaged and bombed out Wolfsburg factory in 1946, and restarted production this time finally of the promised people's car version, the "volkswagen".
Ironically, Ford Motors was offered an opportunity to by VW after the war, and turned it down thinking the company worthless.
/OT
Cheers!
jbcarioca
Well-Known Member
- Feb 3, 2015
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This makes sense. I am not technically qualified but I do have direct user experiences with armored windows. I have owned two armored cars, both of which I hade converted after purchase. A relative also owned an auto armor I gotta business which gave me more insight into installation issues....Btw., I think I managed to figure out why both windows shattered, and while I'd normally be reluctant to disagree with the expert opinion of a senior Tesla engineer in his field of expertise, I'm 99% confident that it wasn't microfractures.
If we carefully examine the video of the steel ball window test Franz performed:
Note how at the end of the video the door opens slightly: probably because the protective blanket got in between and maybe prevented the door from closing completely? Also, as noted by @lascavarian, window also drops slightly as if a door opening sequence got triggered.
...l.
Further I have owned several pressurized aircraft and have had airborne failures due to stress cracks. Stress cracks tend to be installation problems that impede the normal stress absorption when presented with external force. Those tend towards straight line cracks from the mounting points. The infamous aircraft example was the infamous DeHaviland Comet, the first pressurized commercial jet. A few crashes later the square large windows yield to less stress-inducing types. I had a Cessna 421 that had a similar issue with windshields. When mine chose to fail it did so at altitude with the loudest crack I ever heard, a straight-line crack from the points of highest stress, improperly torqued mounting points.
I am confident that Tesla Glass is entirely new, very different and lighter than the tradition multi layer glass/absorbent plastic, multiple repeated layers for maximum shock absorption. Still, the mounting must allow for considerable flex. That is why commercial auto armoring produces non-functioning windows. Just as you mentioned in slightly different terms any armored window MUST allow for substantial movement when stressed, to absorb impact without failure.
Because the demonstration was of a prototype I suggest mounting and other impact-resistant techniques were the culprit. Coupled with the probable Bio-weapon Defense mode, the internal ability to absorb pressure differential would also be reduced. In that case the pressurized aircraft story is relevant because BWDM is created in large part through pressurizing the vehicle interior.
By now I wager the solutions are already being tested. After all they will apply to other Tesla vehicles too.
I believe the Cybertruck will be a success but I haven't seen a reminder that the X had lots of reservations and Tesla was unable to convert them to orders. Once the X was on the market the situation quickly went from lengthy wait to 'please order and you can have it in a few weeks.' And the refundable reservation fee was much higher than $100.Yeah, 146K was 7 hrs ago. Its more like 170K reservations for Cybertruck by now.
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