Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dagger]

Update from Alter Viggo on Twitter

 

[SpaceCash]

Space Cash..... Read my new post.

Thanks for the info! I used to work in Norfolk VA for my Navy helicopter squadron HM-15

I feel this is on. And I'm so stoked

 

[lklundin]

Does anyone have an idea, what are these reinforced concrete blocks found among the trees at the GF4 site?

#Gf4 Gigafactory4 on Twitter

BTW, previous comments here regarding the GF4 site seemed to assume that the site was also a forest during WW2.
While that could be the case, the pine plantation that is currently there is surely post-WW2.

 

[lklundin]

The cost to bulletproof a car depends on several variables, such as the type of vehicle and the level of protection that you desire. The general cost can range from $40,000 upwards of $100,000 - that's the cost of the upgrade. Tesla has it included, kind of.

Unlike for normal cars, I have to imagine it would be easier and cheaper to upgrade the Cybertruck to withstand also high-velocity rounds (9mm are really comparatively easy to stop). Taking that thought to its logical conclusion:

Think about the marketing value of a Tesla Cybertruck variant getting into the
US Presidential State Car market...

 

[Artful Dodger]

In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946: They looked upon what they had created, and saw it was Goodenough.

On the 2nd day (in 1950), VW brought forth the T1 Transporter. And it was also Goodenough.

Concealed from view beneath the shell of these disparate vehicles was a single skateboard design that looked like this one:

Lo, 70 yrs ago, as VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. Verily, they saw they had a perfectly usable one already, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and doublecabs over the next decade.

Nor did they waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, building millions of Bugs and Buses, thereby becoming the world's largest maker of autos.

This is what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense to create and manufacture a new line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and sub-compact cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture until all creation knows the name TESLA. And they will look like origami works of art for a new century.

The era of Tesla as solely the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from a midget manufacturor of 0.36M cars in 2019 to 20M cars per year by 2029. And by their children, you shall know them.

Place your bets. So sayeth the Elon of Mars.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[ReflexFunds]

Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform?

Semi customers will be even more focussed on cost of ownership and utility so the manufacturing cost savings from this new method could make even more sense than for Pickup.

It would also mean no need for a paint shop installed at GF1 and lower capex generally for Semi. It's also likely going to be a much more modular production line where capacity can be added incrementally.

I'm sure all Tesla's extensive Semi Powertrain testing over the past 3 years will still be relevant, and I think they can be confident in the durability of the stainless steel body without years of further prototype testing.

 

[kbM3]

In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946:

They looked upon it, and saw it was good enough. So in 1950, VW brought out the first T1 Transporter.

View attachment 480692

Hidden underneath the shells of both vehicles was a skateboard that looked like this:

View attachment 480693

70 yrs ago, when VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. They had a perfectly usable one, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and crew cabs over the next decade.

But they didn't waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, and built millions of Bugs and Buses, becoming the world's largest carmaker.

That's what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense, to build out a line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and mini-cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture. And look like origami artwork.

The era of Tesla as soley the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from 0.36M cars produced in 2019 to 20M cars produced in 2029. And they'll move fast.

Bet on it.

Wonderful post!

Another lens through which to view the CT (and I agree most likely all future Teslas) is a completely new design for Alien Dreadnought. If one views the factory as the real product and walking through the factory as being able to look at the product in minute detail, imagine how much more impressive the Cybertruck production lines look compared to AD v0.5.

The question is are we looking at v2.0 or V3.0?

 

[EVMeister]

Dude, I thought this was the Cybertruck thread. That's no Cyberfactory!

 

[Artful Dodger]

imagine how much more impressive the Cybertruck production lines look compared to AD v0.5.

Alas, I am AD v2.0

But Alien Dreadnaught is alive and stirring in the hearts of men (and women and esp. kids. Kidz squeal when they see a Tesla the way an old Mustang used to squeal its tires 55 yrs ago).

Peace!

 

[lascavarian]

Thanks to those researching the XY fabrication process.

Combining XY with additive methods will work well for low volume fabrication on Mars. The pieces just keep coming together to make the Mars venture advance.

Looks like the starships themselves will become the raw materials for on-planet fabrication.

 

[ReflexFunds]

"When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, 'Nah, what's wrong with a horse?' That was a huge bet he made, and it worked." - Elon Musk

 

[Khamul]

This is gold: https://twitter.com/StormSmithx/status/1198269680110190592 Look at the reply

 

[KarenRei]

Unlike for normal cars, I have to imagine it would be easier and cheaper to upgrade the Cybertruck to withstand also high-velocity rounds (9mm are really comparatively easy to stop).

For reasonably high energy rounds you could put an energy absorption / catch layer on the inside; the stainless, even if it can't catch a round on its own, will surely deform it / send it spinning, unless you're talking very high energy rounds. Ceramic is ideal for this role, but as far as metals go, hardened 301 stainless is certainly up there.

If you really want to go for the military market ,the thick, angular stainless hull should make it very easy to attach external armour, even reactive armour, to it (there's also some non-explosive reactive armour varieties if needed, which can even go on the inside). Military market would want it jacked up and with a V-hull added, though.

The windows, while designed to be damage resistant, do not appear to be bulletproof glass. One would have to replace them with actual bulletproof glass.

Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform?

The angular style is a result of them wanting to armour the vehicle, as you can't realistically stamp 3mm 301 stainless without rapidly destroying your tooling. No need to armour a semi.

Yes, the pickup approach saves on tooling, but it also comes with really big costs of their own. That thick stainless is expensive, in terms of raw material costs.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I think some of these young whipper-snappers will aspire to own the cybertruck. But that is not the majority of F150 buyers who need it for actual work.

You're probably right, @dqd88 . But Tesla's would be thrilled to capture 10% of the NA pickup market. That's a reasonable target since there will be nothing else like it. Re my other post about drag night in Alabama, I'm imagining one guy shows up in a Cybertruck, of course everyone comes over to check it out because it's more sensational than all the other pimped-out rides, and then he blows every other truck away at the drag strip. You KNOW that'll convince some of his friends to get one. But we won't know for sure until it goes into production.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The angular style is a result of them wanting to armour the vehicle, as you can't realistically stamp 3mm 301 stainless without rapidly destroying your tooling. No need to armour a semi.

Yes, the pickup approach saves on tooling, but it also comes with really big costs of their own. That thick stainless is expensive, in terms of raw material costs.

I really don't think they set out to build an armoured vehicle. They set out to re-design the car manufacturing process from the bottom up to save capex and COGs. It just so happened that the end result of folding stainless steel turned out to result in an armoured vehicle. And then they took this further to make it a selling point.

I would roughly guess that the CyberTruck COGs savings are $5-10k from going with this new architecture over a traditional manufacturing process and materials. I would love for Tesla to release a blog explaining in more detail though so we can get a better cost estimate. The materials may be more expensive but they could equally be cheaper - Elon has said the SpaceX stainless steel used in Starship (and now CyberTruck) is just $3 per kg, but the depreciation, component and labour costs are going to be far cheaper.

 

[Fact Checking]

The angular style is a result of them wanting to armour the vehicle, as you can't realistically stamp 3mm 301 stainless without rapidly destroying your tooling. No need to armour a semi.

Yes, the pickup approach saves on tooling, but it also comes with really big costs of their own. That thick stainless is expensive, in terms of raw material costs.

I believe the angular style is the result of them wanting to use folded stainless steel exoskeleton, which according to @Krugerrand requires almost no tooling, just a roll mill and laser cutters for the stainless steel panels. Very little welding is required, which all but eliminates three of the most capex intensive parts of a car manufacturing pipeline: the stamp lines, the body shop and the paint shop.

That is why the entry price of Cybertruck is so low, despite 3mm stainless steel: the stainless steel is utilized in a very mass efficient manner: it's both external skin/panels (which all cars need) and the frame, in one.

I.e. the "stainless steel exoskeleton" has in fact a triple role:

• external aerodynamic surface (not as good as a Model S but certainly better than traditional pickup truck cabs)
• external load bearing exoskeleton, replaces the frame
• external skin, replaces car chassis panels

This triple role is what saves on mass and manufacturing costs - the downside is that the only realistic way to mass-manufacture such an exoskeleton is with angular shapes.

The fourth role: bullet protection and probably unprecedented side crash and high density object intrusion protection factor (trees, poles, engines of other cars, etc.), is mostly just a happy side effect: make it much thinner and the exoskeleton would buckle, vibrate (noisily) and dent easily.

With all that in mind I agree with @ReflexFunds that they should take a good look at a stainless steel Semi Truck - especially as commercial fleet operators would pay a handsome premium for stainless steel vehicles.

+50% premium for stainless steel "never needs a repaint, never corrodes" commercial vehicles would be easily justified - like it is for stainless steel professional kitchenware which costs more like a +200% or +300% premium.

The counter-argument would be that the steel frame of semi tractors is incredibly strongly constructed, to pull up to 40 tons of loads, which might not be easily replaced by an exoskeleton design. Also, the Semi is much more battery pack and powertrain cost dominated, the price of the cab is much smaller than for pickup trucks or regular cars.

 

[lklundin]

In the beginning, VW brought forth the Beetle. The year was 1946: They looked upon what they had created, and saw it was Goodenough.

On the 2nd day (in 1950), VW brought forth the T1 Transporter. And it was also Goodenough.

View attachment 480692

Concealed from view beneath the shell of these disparate vehicles was a single skateboard design that looked like this one:

View attachment 480693

Lo, 70 yrs ago, as VW needed to massively scale production and increase the addressable market for its vehicles, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel. Verily, they saw they had a perfectly usable one already, which they pressed into service in dozens of variants of buses, campers, trucks, and doublecabs over the next decade.

Nor did they waste time 'perfecting' systems that were already suitable for purpose, or adaptable to purpose. They got on with it, building millions of Bugs and Buses, thereby becoming the world's largest maker of autos.

This is what Tesla will do now. They'll reuse/repurpose modules they've already created thru great effort and expense to create and manufacture a new line of Cybertrucks, buses, campers, and sub-compact cars that are cheap and fast to design, tool-up, and manufacture until all creation knows the name TESLA. And they will look like origami works of art for a new century.

The era of Tesla as solely the producer of bespoke premium sedans and faberge eggs is coming to an end. They are going from a midget manufacturor of 0.36M cars in 2019 to 20M cars per year by 2029. And by their children, you shall know them.

Place your bets. So sayeth the Elon of Mars.

While I agree with your post, the VW Beetle was actually introduced in 1938 - i.e. in quite a different era...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Cybertruck in the Robotaxi network nets more income than anyone in the preschool industry? If you're into that sort of thing.

Cybertruck + FSD = Land Drones. My prediction: the military subsidizes CyberGiga at Munich, ready to churn out tens of thousands of these in case of aggression from the east. That bed would provide great bolt-down points for artillery, Gauss cannon, whatever. Combined with Starlink, what could go wrong?

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform?

I think this depends on whether an exoskeleton can pull the 40 tons loads that is required of semi tractors. In particular the overlapping form of most trailers:

The attachment point "8" goes well below the trailer, and it might not be possible to avoid building a steel frame for the Semi Truck that transfers load from the rear axles to the attachment point - at which point you might as well make a lighter cabin of aluminum or composites, to save on mass.