Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

How do you explain the unbelievable price? Battery cost decline alone?

Cybertruck compares VERY favorably to Model Y and is cheaper.

Yes. Its pricing is based on Tesla's estimated pricing two years in the future. Models 3 and Y will be cheaper then, too (and/or have significantly-improved stats)

 

[scaesare]

...how many people were expecting a truck with unbreakable glass?

Not that I think it's a deal.. uh... "breaker" either, but I think everybody watching was when Elen made much ado about it being unbreakable glass, complete with circus act, leading up to the gaffe.

 

[KarenRei]

Looking at the new Jason Yang video:

So, as others have noted, vehicles are accumulating - although not at a huge rate.

The number of trucks at the docks has roughly doubled since the last video I saw - 6x - although obviously they're a long way from full capacity!

Some sort of parade going on?

 

[Krugerrand]

People are warming up to the Cybertruck. The market was pretty sour on Tesla Friday. But I am thinking that investors too will warn up to the Cybertruck and appreciate the opportunity it presents for Tesla. I'm expecting the stock price to start a gradual ascent on Monday.

Life lesson in this for people. Just here the number of people waving their arms and jumping up and down about how this was an epic fail, is this a joke, blah, blah, blah. Many of those same people now are, I’m buying it, smashed window be damned.

Step away from the keyboard/keep your mouth shut until your brain can engage and digest.

I was buying the truck regardless of looks (and said so on this board) because I have more important reasons not pertaining to aesthetics. And even I needed a few minutes to wrap my brain around the look because though I was prepared for a lot of possible ‘out there’ looks, that particular one wasn’t in my mind’s eye.

So many people in a hurry to express themselves and have their opinions ‘heard’. Be less of a loudmouth fool by waiting for your brain to catch up to your mouth. You’ll be respected and viewed as a thoughtful human worth listening to.

 

[KarenRei]

I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?

Forward operating bases:

Use housing that has integrated solar, and you've eliminated the (very risky) need for fuel deliveries. The US military is already working on doing more to integrate solar into its facilities - all issues of EVs aside - for this reason alone (providing for local generation needs).

In the meantime, diesel generators at the FOBs can supply the power needs.

 

[HG Wells]

Yes. Its pricing is based on Tesla's estimated pricing two years in the future. Models 3 and Y will be cheaper then, too (and/or have significantly-improved stats)

Well, I would prefer increased margins. Say, 30% ?

 

[Unpilot]

This makes sense. I am not technically qualified but I do have direct user experiences with armored windows. I have owned two armored cars, both of which I hade converted after purchase. A relative also owned an auto armor I gotta business which gave me more insight into installation issues.

Further I have owned several pressurized aircraft and have had airborne failures due to stress cracks. Stress cracks tend to be installation problems that impede the normal stress absorption when presented with external force. Those tend towards straight line cracks from the mounting points. The infamous aircraft example was the infamous DeHaviland Comet, the first pressurized commercial jet. A few crashes later the square large windows yield to less stress-inducing types. I had a Cessna 421 that had a similar issue with windshields. When mine chose to fail it did so at altitude with the loudest crack I ever heard, a straight-line crack from the points of highest stress, improperly torqued mounting points.

I am confident that Tesla Glass is entirely new, very different and lighter than the tradition multi layer glass/absorbent plastic, multiple repeated layers for maximum shock absorption. Still, the mounting must allow for considerable flex. That is why commercial auto armoring produces non-functioning windows. Just as you mentioned in slightly different terms any armored window MUST allow for substantial movement when stressed, to absorb impact without failure.


Because the demonstration was of a prototype I suggest mounting and other impact-resistant techniques were the culprit. Coupled with the probable Bio-weapon Defense mode, the internal ability to absorb pressure differential would also be reduced. In that case the pressurized aircraft story is relevant because BWDM is created in large part through pressurizing the vehicle interior.

By now I wager the solutions are already being tested. After all they will apply to other Tesla vehicles too.

When this happened it was quite loud...MX guys said it was installed improperly.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm don't understand why Elon is still doing the whole gimmicky, way-out there features like bullet-proof glass. Tesla has clearly shown that they have the best electric drive train (including software) and assisted driving technology - with each improving constantly. Tesla does not need one-off technologies like falcon wing doors, bio-defense mode, or bullet proof glass any more to bring attention to their vehicles. They can make normal vehicles that simply feature exactly what Tesla does best and they will sell all they can make for the next 10, 20 years or more (if the other manufacturers can ever catch up).

Why waste time and resources on bullet proof glass? No one (ok, maybe 5 people) will say, "I don't want one....wait, it has bullet proof glass? I want one."

Tesla could put their drive train and AP in a wooden box square truck and sell them. People love Tesla vehicles because they are AWESOME to drive (and let drive). We don't need all the fancy - we just need to build factories and build as many NORMAL vehicles as possible. Build battery factories, not bullet proof glass.

And please don't tout the 150k deposits. I have 3 of them - 1 intentional and 2 unintentional. That happened to almost everyone. So the real number is probably 40-50k. Still impressive for that monstrosity, but Tesla could have rolled a square wooden truck out there and got 50k $100 deposits, especially with the deposit being $100. Heck, I put my chances of actually buying the truck at less than 2%, but i put down my $100 for the chance that they reshape the truck just a tad to make it a little nicer looking, and for the slim chance I can actually buy a 500 miles range, 2.9 seconds 0-60mph, FSD Tesla for $77k. Cause if I am EVER actually able to do that, I don't care WHAT it looks like, I will buy it. And bullet proof glass would have absolutely no impact either way on me buying it. ZERO. ZILCH.

 

[willow_hiller]

Also, a large charging station is being built in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Not for use by customers. I feel that the new Tesla is going to be built in Hurt, Virginia. Hurt is only a 3 !/2 hour train ride from Hampton Roads and I feel that this Tesla station is to charge the new TESLA cars or trucks and will be charged before being loaded onto ships. Have been studying on this for a long time.....Does anyone know if I am correct?

I was just thinking more about this... A good way to test this theory would be if you could spot the type of connector. If it's CCS, they're charging cars meant for foreign markets...

But does it make sense to charge cars before shipping? I would think they would charge them after shipping.

 

[Krugerrand]

neroden on Disqus:

Going Back To The Future: What It’s Like Riding In Tesla’s New Cybertruck

neroden Clara Smith a day ago
It is actually quite non functional for most commercial,pickup truck applications. Bed is too short, it is hard to put toppers on, it is expensive to put your logo and website and phjone number on.


1 View in discussion

neroden Tom Capon a day ago
Tom,that does not surprise me. This vehicle is bad for every single pickup truck market segment. It is a fun minivan though.


View in discussion

neroden PragmaticCitizen a day ago
The supply chain people are competent. The customer relations people are not competent. Neither is the software team. Tesla have very nasty weak points which will bite them in the ass before 2021.


View in discussion

neroden HighZenHour a day ago
That is not a good reservation count for such a low deposit cost.


Don't do it neroden, stay in the light:
View attachment 480663

Victim of his own mind. When you can’t see the forest for the trees.

 

[Krugerrand]

6.5ft bed too short? What's the percentage of pick up truck having 8ft bed?

I would definitely prefer an 8’ bed, but I can just leave the tailgate down for those 2x4s, plywood, etc... No biggie.

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Look at the high quality models 3's in the Gigafactory parking lot !

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

EDIT: I think these are crash tested.

 

[Krugerrand]

How many Cybertruck buyers are going to upgrade?

Some will buy the dual motor and then trade in for the tri motor a year or two later.

Others will be going crazy with the options:
Colours, camper, trailer, cyberquad and more to come.

I ordered the dual, but I really want the tri. Dual won for now because of production timeline. When the time comes I’ll reevaluate my situation, but my gut feeling is I’ll be getting the tri.

 

[pnungesser]

I would definitely prefer an 8’ bed, but I can just leave the tailgate down for those 2x4s, plywood, etc... No biggie.

And if I heard correctly, no wheel wells intruding into the bed. That a big deal for hauling plywood, sheetrock, etc.

 

[kbM3]

Did Cybertruck just kill Model Y?

Even if you care nothing about the towing, or pick up functionality, Cybertruck:

1) Sits six adults +100 ft.³ of covered cargo capacity. Model Y seats 5+2, and only has 66 ft.³ of cargo capacity when the second and third row are folded down.

2) Has a panoramic windshield.

3) Is safer.

4) Has a 17 inch screen versus a 15 inch screen.

5) Has adaptive air suspension.

6) Charges more quickly.

7) IS CHEAPER!!!

Model Y:
1) Better efficiency,

2) Better performance for the base version.

3) Smaller exterior

 

[Tslynk67]

including me!

Maybe we can all go together to GF4 for a day out

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe the angular style is the result of them wanting to use folded stainless steel exoskeleton, which according to @Krugerrand requires almost no tooling, just a roll mill and laser cutters for the stainless steel panels. Very little welding is required, which all but eliminates three of the most capex intensive parts of a car manufacturing pipeline: the stamp lines, the body shop and the paint shop.

That is why the entry price of Cybertruck is so low, despite 3mm stainless steel: the stainless steel is utilized in a very mass efficient manner: it's both external skin/panels (which all cars need) and the frame, in one.

I.e. the "stainless steel exoskeleton" has in fact a triple role:

• external aerodynamic surface (not as good as a Model S but certainly better than traditional pickup truck cabs)
• external load bearing exoskeleton, replaces the frame
• external skin, replaces car chassis panels

This triple role is what saves on mass and manufacturing costs - the downside is that the only realistic way to mass-manufacture such an exoskeleton is with angular shapes.

The fourth role: bullet protection and probably unprecedented side crash and high density object intrusion protection factor (trees, poles, engines of other cars, etc.), is mostly just a happy side effect: make it much thinner and the exoskeleton would buckle, vibrate (noisily) and dent easily.

With all that in mind I agree with @ReflexFunds that they should take a good look at a stainless steel Semi Truck - especially as commercial fleet operators would pay a handsome premium for stainless steel vehicles.

+50% premium for stainless steel "never needs a repaint, never corrodes" commercial vehicles would be easily justified - like it is for stainless steel professional kitchenware which costs more like a +200% or +300% premium.

The counter-argument would be that the steel frame of semi tractors is incredibly strongly constructed, to pull up to 40 tons of loads, which might not be easily replaced by an exoskeleton design. Also, the Semi is much more battery pack and powertrain cost dominated, the price of the cab is much smaller than for pickup trucks or regular cars.

I can’t imagine any scenario that would have Tesla building die sets for this vehicle’s body panels. Wouldn’t make sense.

 

[Unpilot]

I ordered the dual, but I really want the tri. Dual won for now because of production timeline. When the time comes I’ll reevaluate my situation, but my gut feeling is I’ll be getting the tri.

Right there with ya...500 miles and three motors...but my more ....um... sensible side won and I have a dual motor on order...when the time comes for the actual build well I want three motors damnit

 

[mongo]

So, as others have noted, vehicles are accumulating - although not at a huge rate.

Keep in mind, all the China experience centers (49) are receiving MIC demo cars.
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory is officially rolling out cars in China - CNN

Some sort of parade going on?

Wave to the cameras, boys. Or fire drill.

I ordered the dual, but I really want the tri. Dual won for now because of production timeline.
When the time comes I’ll reevaluate my situation, but my gut feeling is I’ll be getting the tri.

Have order for both. Either the AWD becomes wife's car, or we trade it in when tri is available.

 

[X Fan]

I'm don't understand why Elon is still doing the whole gimmicky, way-out there features like bullet-proof glass. Tesla has clearly shown that they have the best electric drive train (including software) and assisted driving technology - with each improving constantly. Tesla does not need one-off technologies like falcon wing doors, bio-defense mode, or bullet proof glass any more to bring attention to their vehicles. They can make normal vehicles that simply feature exactly what Tesla does best and they will sell all they can make for the next 10, 20 years or more (if the other manufacturers can ever catch up).

Why waste time and resources on bullet proof glass? No one (ok, maybe 5 people) will say, "I don't want one....wait, it has bullet proof glass? I want one."

Tesla could put their drive train and AP in a wooden box square truck and sell them. People love Tesla vehicles because they are AWESOME to drive (and let drive). We don't need all the fancy - we just need to build factories and build as many NORMAL vehicles as possible. Build battery factories, not bullet proof glass.

And please don't tout the 150k deposits. I have 3 of them - 1 intentional and 2 unintentional. That happened to almost everyone. So the real number is probably 40-50k. Still impressive for that monstrosity, but Tesla could have rolled a square wooden truck out there and got 50k $100 deposits, especially with the deposit being $100. Heck, I put my chances of actually buying the truck at less than 2%, but i put down my $100 for the chance that they reshape the truck just a tad to make it a little nicer looking, and for the slim chance I can actually buy a 500 miles range, 2.9 seconds 0-60mph, FSD Tesla for $77k. Cause if I am EVER actually able to do that, I don't care WHAT it looks like, I will buy it. And bullet proof glass would have absolutely no impact either way on me buying it. ZERO. ZILCH.

No offense intended but I’m really happy Elon is in charge vs internet “experts”.