Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Has this been mentioned yet:

Just saw this on Model 3 order page:
Order before Dec 8th if you want to take delivery before EOY, not guaranteed.
This is for continental US, and overseas already sold out for the year, huge demand problem...

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

My take is that Tesla is extra resilient because it's on an uptrend. The share price of a company like Tesla is driven by perceptions. The sharp moves are driven hour-by-hour by highly reactive Wall Street traders. They will buy or sell based on the news cycle. The underlying strength or weakness is driven by much slower reacting human sentiment.

Tesla is widely perceived to have become a real company. The lack of demand didn't materialize. The increasing loss with each car sold didn't materialize. The inability to meet debt obligations didn't materialize. Model 3 has not had a single recall. Cybertruck is growing on people, Etc. Etc. Etc. Tesla is a real company with a real future and the potential for major expansion and dominance.

The speed of the China expansion was particularly illuminating. People want a piece of it. It's on their "buy" lists. They don't want to jump in recklessly because any stock can correct/decline. They want a good deal but, if this is the last time it can be had at the current low prices, they want to get in before it never looks back. These are the kind of investors we want and this kind of underlying strength is what many intelligent shorter-term traders look for so we have that going for us too. This is the kind of fundamental rotation of ownership that is required for a stock to break long-standing all-time highs and move into a new trading range. It can seem like a slow process - avoid the temptation to study it on a microscopic level.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Very interesting comparison between Cybertruck and RAM 1500:
Tesla Cybertruck vs Ram 1500 comparison

 

[nativewolf]

I can assure you that I am not all that interested in lugging 25 kg bags of cat litter or wheat and other grains from the store. I'd much rather they'd be delivered. (being a lazy sod, I bought a hand truck so minimal lifting and carrying).

Ha, yes. Delivery in that case is awesome.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 484195

About time. Amazing that he manages to get away with violating Twitter's platform manipulation policy as long as he does.

Still there, I have now reported - this guy is engaged in a systematic campaign of disinformation and harassment, I suggests everyone do the same.

 

[nativewolf]

Only partly as a complement to Tesla's fleet. Remember that when vehicles go off lease, Tesla intends to turn them into robotaxis. Tesla gets these vehicles back cheaply.

Fleet operators have a much bigger advantage than one off guys like us who want to do rentals. Tesla can just farm out all the maintenance, wear and tear, and damage to service centers. We are on own for all that. Plus we have to deal with insurance. Big operators like Tesla could self insure.

Why would i want to compete with Tesla at a $1 a ride or whatever ridiculously low price they charge? Maybe if the car is some sort indestructible cheap car. I just don't see how I would want to compete with Tesla in this game. Definitely not when i'm older.

Fair points but I disagree. Why would tesla want to compete with car owners unless they have to just to dispose of the fleet. I can't see tesla wanting to send vehicles out at $1 if that is the price of a rush hour vehicle. An elderly person who used high disposable income may very well take whatever the market offers because frankly, they have no interest in rush hour errands (for instance- rural elderly are another area of interest to me and FSD, what a great thing).

In any case, what a great thing to contemplate, good for earth, people, and Tesla.

 

[elasalle]

That which is supposed to not be, is .. (don't look)

 

[KarenRei]

FYI: The sort of things shorts share:

David Koch's Ghost on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

What scenario are you trying to charge a cold pack?

It's called "Regen".

You seem to be advocating for people to run around with a minimal pack which barely meets their needs, and is thus under more stress most of the time.

No, I'm advocating buying the size of battery that fit's an individual's use scenario. It's why Tesla offers the same car with different sized batteries. Having an over-sized battery is more of a benefit for early adopters. I'm speaking to longer-term trends which will be a more reasonably sized battery that is lighter and more affordable which makes sense with ever-increasing charging infrastructure. The future will not be 1000 mile batteries (because people don't need 1000 mile batteries).

 

[KarenRei]

Has this been mentioned yet:
View attachment 484212
Just saw this on Model 3 order page:
Order before Dec 8th if you want to take delivery before EOY, not guaranteed.
This is for continental US, and overseas already sold out for the year, huge demand problem...

Looks like even the US will be entering Q1 with a backlog.

 

[elasalle]

Has this been mentioned yet:
View attachment 484212
Just saw this on Model 3 order page:
Order before Dec 8th if you want to take delivery before EOY, not guaranteed.
This is for continental US, and overseas already sold out for the year, huge demand problem...

Actually, couple of days back I received a marketing email with the same. ...

 

[Doggydogworld]

Doesn't GF1 receives battery cells straight from Panasonic therefore it is classified as Raw Materials?

Early Shanghai production uses battery packs from GF1. The new buildings under construction will house a battery pack assembly line (among other things). At some point GF Shanghai will make their own packs using cells from LG Chem and/or CATL and the extra packs GF1 makes will go to Fremont for use in Model Ys. We don't know when this transition will start, or how long it will take. I say the transition starts in late Q1 and ends in May, but that's just a guess.

 

[elasalle]

Early Shanghai production uses battery packs from GF1. The new buildings under construction will house a battery pack assembly line (among other things). At some point GF Shanghai will make their own packs using cells from LG Chem and/or CATL and the extra packs GF1 makes will go to Fremont for use in Model Ys. We don't know when this transition will start, or how long it will take. I say the transition starts in late Q1 and ends in May, but that's just a guess.

Haven't some of the older lines already been shipped to GF3? Weren't these lines for Battery production?

 

[Tslynk67]

Holding up well with the macro shitstorm. Shorty trying to keep it in the $335 range by dumping when it gets a bit of a run.

Can last forever, I guess they're hoping for some bad press from court to help them out. Plus they hope it drops with the index, except buyers have other ideas right now.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like even the US will be entering Q1 with a backlog.

To be clear before I state this, I believe there WILL be overhanging order backlog into Q1...however, this sort of thing doesn't really prove it in any way.

These types of notices aren't about demand, they're about logistics. Since Teslas are made to order, they could have just a single order for a single Model 3 in Patooteyville, Iowa on December 15th and zero backlog and zero orders for the rest of the year. Since it takes time to make the car, quality check it, ship it, prep it for delivery, and deliver it, it doesn't really equate to demand.

The fact that orders placed now in Europe won't be delivered until Q1 aren't necessarily a sign that there's a big order backlog, just that it takes a certain amount of time to build the car and get it to Europe to deliver.

So while I agree there is and will be a backlog for Europe and the US, the expected delivery date falling into next year doesn't really equate to huge orders--it just means "sorry, we can't warp space-time and instantly build and deliver your car".

 

[mongo]

Haven't some of the older lines already been shipped to GF3? Weren't these lines for Battery production?

Yah, the original module production lines (the ones that bottle necked production and were converted to part manual part automatic operation) were reportedly moved to GF3.

This is also why Carsonight`s rumor/scoop about moving the "old" battery module line from GF1 to GF3 makes so much sense. Let`s incubate new technologies and machinery (new Grohmann module maker) at the home base first - if sugar happens, it is easier to fix it. Imagine a Model 3 production start-up kind of problem where Elon and key staff would have had to fly to China and spend months there...

 

[Doggydogworld]

Haven't some of the older lines already been shipped to GF3? Weren't these lines for Battery production?

The 'semi-automated' lines from GF1 will presumably go into the new Shanghai building once it is finished. This is partly rumor, though. It wouldn't surprise me if they just put another huge automated Grohmann machine in Shanghai. Mostly for quality control vs. labor savings.

 

[Nocturnal]

I wouldn't mind seeing Tesla be more transparent about replacement battery costs. One of the more common pieces of FUD is "You will have to replace battery at 50k miles at the cost of $20k.". Would be nice to combat that, and for personal planning to know that my M3 battery is expected to cost $X thousand dollars in 2022.

My take is that Tesla is extra resilient because it's on an uptrend. The share price of a company like Tesla is driven by perceptions. The sharp moves are driven hour-by-hour by highly reactive Wall Street traders. They will buy or sell based on the news cycle. The underlying strength or weakness is driven by much slower reacting human sentiment.

Tesla is widely perceived to have become a real company. The lack of demand didn't materialize. The increasing loss with each car sold didn't materialize. The inability to meet debt obligations didn't materialize. Model 3 has not had a single recall. Cybertruck is growing on people, Etc. Etc. Etc. Tesla is a real company with a real future and the potential for major expansion and dominance.

The speed of the China expansion was particularly illuminating. People want a piece of it. It's on their "buy" lists. They don't want to jump in recklessly because any stock can correct/decline. They want a good deal but, if this is the last time it can be had at the current low prices, they want to get in before it never looks back. These are the kind of investors we want and this kind of underlying strength is what many intelligent shorter-term traders look for so we have that going for us too. This is the kind of fundamental rotation of ownership that is required for a stock to break long-standing all-time highs and move into a new trading range. It can seem like a slow process - avoid the temptation to study it on a microscopic level.

The average Tesla article has become far more positive in the past 6 months. Hard to quantify but it's obvious.

 

[JRP3]

It's called "Regen".

Yeah, so you give up a tiny amount of regen for twice the range. Sorry but your argument doesn't hold water.

 

[Tslynk67]

Whoops, shorties went to the toilet, or something? Are we likely to get any news from this annoying trial? Seriously, I hope he settles 5 minutes before it starts, if only to annoy #BabyCharts...

I did a quick search on the phrase "peso guy" and it seems Musk is not making it up, it was a phrase used in his youth, well some say yay, some say nay...

Phillip de Wet on Twitter