Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Yes, we see sedan sales decreasing. So is overall sales. But CUV sales are increasing.

So, we don't know overall whether sedan sales decrease is because of Model 3 - or because of overall decreasing sales or switch to CUV. May be they all have some impact - that is why I was asking if there is any statistical analysis on this.

The WaPo piece touches on this:

A recent market trend analysis from Cox Automotive showed SUVs have gone from 29 percent to nearly half of new vehicles sold nationwide over the past decade, while sedans now make up less than a third of new sales. Meanwhile, electric vehicles still make up less than 2 percent of new vehicles sold but have had an acute impact on one particular segment, according to analysts: the luxury sedan.

and:

BMW said that while 3 Series sales have fallen in recent years, its X3 and X5 SUVs have become its top sellers, recording year-over-year sales increases of 17 and 24 percent, respectively.

Mercedes saw the consumer shift toward SUVs and introduced a “sibling SUV model” to its C-Class, the GLC, that isn’t recorded alongside its lower sedan sales, said Mercedes spokeswoman Donna Boland. Sales volume is shifting to the GLC “in line with the still-growing trend to SUVs” in “far higher numbers than any defection to Model 3.”

Tesla alone has bucked the trend of the dying sedan with U.S. Model 3 sales of 138,876 in 2018, according to Edmunds estimates, compared with competitors that each logged less than half of those sales numbers since the Model 3′s release.

“The pull for an electric vehicle with the kind of style and performance that the Model 3 offers is higher than the pull to go to an SUV for a lot of consumers,” said Karl Brauer, an auto industry analyst who is the executive publisher of Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book.

I am hoping that consumers see the same value proposition in the Model Y that they see in the Model 3. If they do, the sales numbers for that thing are going to be lights out based on the above information.

 

[StealthP3D]

Norway dealerships can't move Bolts without a discount:
Tesla Driver ‍ on Twitter

The Chevy Bolt is close to dead in the Norwegian market after @Tesla Tesla Model 3 arrived.

A dealership took 60 cars, had to dump the NOK 420k cars at NOK 299k to get rid of them.

That's quite a discount! I'm sure previous purchasers of the Bolt will now whine and cry to GMC CEO Mary Barra that they should get a refund of NOK 121,000!

So the Chevy Bolt was supposed to be a Tesla killer? Now the TSLAQ crowd will lobby the Attorney General to put Elon Musk on trial for killing the Chevy Bolt.

 

[Nocturnal]

California
View attachment 485049

Model 3 is nearly beating Camry so far this year in CA? That's insane.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hard to see any impetus for SP to really move upwards until we get Q4 delivery numbers. Am I missing anything?

Confirmation of production and sales from GF3 would be quite a catalyst. It's all gone rather quiet on that front. I feel Tesla could be a Bir more forthcoming on the status.

And they could choose to announce a more aggressive MY time-line before EOQ.

Don't forget the traditional leaked emails as we approach quarter end...

However, I think many are expecting a record quarter - even the $TSLAQ cretins have conceded it, so not even sure that will budge the SP much. Some decent financials end of January though...

And this stupid, effing trial needs to be concluded.

 

[JRP3]

BTW did you see tge age gap between unsworth and his partner?

Can't hate on a guy for having a younger girlfriend. Besides, she's 40 something and well preserved, he's 60 something and weathered.

 

[kbM3]

The WaPo piece touches on this:



and:



I am hoping that consumers see the same value proposition in the Model Y that they see in the Model 3. If they do, the sales numbers for that thing are going to be lights out based on the above information.

Tesla is striking at the very heart of the automotive industry. I’m sure premium RWD/AWD sports sedans garnered an outsize portion of profit for sedans and considering Model 3 has a competitive TCO with Accord and Camry and better green cred than Prius, it was an inspired choice. Model Y aimed at small CUV and Cybertruck aimed at the heart of pickups + large SUVs and Roadster 2 aimed at Porsche and Ferrari, well I can’t even conceive of better product choices

 

[EVNow]

BMW said that while 3 Series sales have fallen in recent years, its X3 and X5 SUVs have become its top sellers, recording year-over-year sales increases of 17 and 24 percent, respectively.

So, BMW lost 25k in sedans but gained 36k in SUVs in 2019 compared to 2018.

 

[Nocturnal]

Confirmation of production and sales from GF3 would be quite a catalyst. It's all gone rather quiet on that front. I feel Tesla could be a Bir more forthcoming on the status.

And they could choose to announce a more aggressive MY time-line before EOQ.

Don't forget the traditional leaked emails as we approach quarter end...

However, I think many are expecting a record quarter - even the $TSLAQ cretins have conceded it, so not even sure that will budge the SP much. Some decent financials end of January though...

And this stupid, effing trial needs to be concluded.

I've written off my December calls for the most part. :/

 

[tinm]

Norway dealerships can't move Bolts without a discount:
Tesla Driver ‍ on Twitter

Speaking of Chevy dealerships and the Bolt, I just came from a local Chevy dealership, same one I wrote about in TMC when I visited several years ago.

Then, the 3 wasn’t out yet and Chevy had not shipped any Bolts to NM and a bunch of salesguys trashed Tesla and the 3 for like a half hour.

Today, the 10 salespeople in the showroom all but ignored me. The dealership had 2 Bolts in the showroom and more out on the lot. Notable: the showroom models were decked out with every package and option, MSRP north of $44K.

BUT, the store price was $32K. I asked a sales guy why the steep price cut. “We’re trying to push them out before January.” I took his answer to mean “We’re slashing the price just to get rid of them but we still can’t get rid of them.” He also claimed the 2020 Bolts will be $7K more expensive with around 250mi range. Did not know Bolt prices are going up. (????)

I asked him if Bolts were selling better than the Model 3 in NM. I’m not sure he knew what a Model 3 was. But yes, he said the Bolt was outselling the Model 3 in New Mexico. I doubt it, I see more 3s here—despite the lack of ANY stores or service centers statewide thanks to the law. And now I see that Chevy dealers here are selling Bolts at a steep loss.

I asked him if more than half of his dealership’s sales were pickup trucks, which is the reality across NM. He said yes. I then asked him what he thought of the Cybertruck. Again, I got the impression he knew nothing about it, other than he said his Facebook friends are always making fun of it. I also got the impression he didn’t know much about EVs in general: after asking him what would happen to his dealership, that makes so much if its revenue from ICE service, if it sold primarily EVs in the future. “Oh we have 3 certified electric technicians on staff,” he said, dodging the real issue.

Bottom line: if this Chevy dealership represents even a fraction of what Chevy dealerships are like nationwide, they’re simply not prepared for the EV onslaught that is coming.

 

[kbM3]

Yeah his videos are pretty fair, but IDK why he has this anger towards "tesla fanboys".

Agree. Unfortunately there are Tesla fans who are so one-sided, they will not tolerate any criticism and will just automatically denigrate every other EV, even in articles that have nothing to do with Tesla. They can be wrong and illogical, but I just hate that there exists such a broad brushstroke that it paints ALL Tesla fans as fanboys or members of a cult.

 

[jhm]

That's Mr Tesla Fanboy to you.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So, BMW lost 25k in sedans but gained 36k in SUVs in 2019 compared to 2018.

The problem lies in the fact that we can't draw a definitive conclusion based on that data we have, and won't know whether those sedan-buyers moved to BMW SUVs or the Model 3 until the launch of the Model Y, I think.

 

[CorneliusXX]

is that so that they can have an employee take one off and throw it into the works and then claim sabotage when things go awry?

Introducing the new GM luddite. New world technology, old world sophistication.

 

[StealthP3D]

Today, the 10 salespeople in the showroom all but ignored me.

Well, even I know not to wear a Tesla shirt into a Chevy dealership!

Bottom line: if this Chevy dealership represents even a fraction of what Chevy dealerships are like nationwide, they’re simply not prepared for the EV onslaught that is coming.

To be fair here, you were talking to a lowly car salesman. Now the dealership owners are more informed and can actually see what's going on. That's why they are out there being pro-active to save their businesses. You have to hand it to them how hard they are working on this problem. And it is work. I mean no one actually enjoys spending their days spreading FUD and lies about Tesla and their products on Internet forums!

 

[jerry33]

The problem lies in the fact that we can't draw a definitive conclusion based on that data we have, and won't know whether those sedan-buyers moved to BMW SUVs or the Model 3 until the launch of the Model Y, I think.

Well, the 99K Model 3 sold didn't come from purchasers who had never owned a car before. Admittedly, we don't know the percentages, but those 99K car buyers would have purchased something else if there was no Model 3.

 

[wipster]

Introducing the new GM luddite. New world technology, old world sophistication.

And when the regenerative brakes stop working, just throw the supplied wooden clog out the window and all things come to a halt immediately, which GM can then blame on their UAW employees.

 

[humbaba]

Another point which always seems to be missed besides the 'shove it where it hurts' quip, was that Unsworth initially attacked Musk's character that he was only doing it for PR. I don't think this is true at all, so here is Unsworth - a public figure after the cave rescue with an interview on CNN making false statements about Musk's character. Couldn't Musk be the one to sue Unsworth for exactly what Unsworth is trying to sue Musk for?

The difference is that Musk is a public figure and thus open to mockery and contempt. His lawyers tried to argue that Unsworth's throwing himself into the spotlight made him into a public figure, but the judge was not persuaded. It was a pretty out there argument, but try what you can and see what sticks I guess.

Yeah, that glosses over details, but I think is a fair assessment when using a broad brush.

 

[space_s3x]

ahoy-hoy,
I had a chat with one of the Tesla Energy persons last week. He said (gist of it), "Elon's goal is to install one hundred V3 Solar Roofs in December. They already have some engineers working on the V4 of the Solar Roof (no other detail). They're gonna ramp up the Solar Roof installations like crazy next year (no further detail). Everyone on the energy side is super busy (himself included) and they've increased hiring significantly."

(I don't work for Tesla - if anyone is wondering)

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wow, colour me surprised. Despite the supply limits, and the UK being 100% in initial-delivery-surge mode last quarter, the UK is up QoQ in November, 2227 -> 2317.

It's quite surprising, particularly when you see all the Brexit nonsense and boris bumbling around, but there are millions of UK citizens that care deeply about the environment.

I was at the pub a few months ago and an entire extinction rebellion protest marched past, blocking traffic on one of the bridges over the Thames.

There are enough people who care about the environment that the UK Gov was forced to declare a climate emergency.

I live in central London and on my way to work I see many EVs and hybrids in the short walk to the tube. Most lampposts in my area have slow chargers built into them. There are around 5-6 separate L2-L3 charging sites within a 10 minute walk.

I say this as an Australian 'expat', which means I don't like to say anything nice about the English, ever.

 

[Tim S]

Hard to see any impetus for SP to really move upwards until we get Q4 delivery numbers. Am I missing anything?

Anticipation of Q4 delivery numbers.