Who cares, NL intercepting everything they can right now!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Who cares, NL intercepting everything they can right now!
Smart move IMO.
And I'm giving Fred some love these days, the quality of the articles has improved dramatically IMO.
It may not be Max, but I see plenty of pain for the shorts at 340, 345, 350...
Edit: typos
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November numbers for various markets have been out for a while. If this was the buying opportunity you were waiting for, you missed it.
It may not be Max, but I see plenty of pain for the shorts at 240, 245, 250...
What about 340, 345, 350?
I don't think it was a hardware upgrade, rather an OTA update for the SuC's? I mean it was one day to the next that they went from 120kWh to 150.
In fact I don't think 120kWh is even a think any more??
Despite bad form to quote oneself ....I want to clarify. I WILL not sell Tesla to pay for Cybertruck.
The fact I know Tesla will appreciate so much in the next few years will allow me to sell other ...um..old musty asset's that will not have the growth trajectory that Tesla will.
Tesla has so much potential upside ...well let me quote a famous person
That sells too soon!
In TSLA universe +-5% is a daily occurrence non-event.
Would hope S&P inclusion to have a bigger effect on TSLA, considering the large short percentage.
FWIW, BMW 3-series is traditionally one of the most heavily leased cars in the US. IIRC the California percentage was ~70% in 2010, but most vehicles are leased >40% in California. Tesla has consistently been less heavily leased because of several factors, highest among them is that Tesla has not subvened either residual values or money factors, so that most leased Teslae tend to have business use thus yielding tax benefits.
OTOH, in those jurisdictions where new vehicle sales taxes are net of tradein, Tesla tradeins certainly should tend to go upscale.
I have no statistically significant data on these assertions other than the 2010 BMW 3-series CA lease %. Still, I am quite confident that these [points are valid.
We also should note that several major European markets have major tax advantages for business leases, and Tesla leases in Germany, Benelux, et al are growing rapidly, but Tesla does not directly participate, thus far. In the UK and absolute majority of 'executive' class and above are leased as company cars. Tesla does nto participate at all in teh UK lease market.
As we examine market potential and Tesla sales volumes we should consider that the fastest and most powerful sales lever in most of the principal EU markets (UK too) will be direct support of leasing activities. In all such markets off-lease sales are also major businesses, often lucrative ones.
Around 2022 or slightly before we should see Tesla active participation in these markets, which alone could easily produce an annual doubling of S3XY volumes. I have almost zero insight in Cybertruck potential in EU, although NA, Australia, UAE etc are bound to be highly attractive within their segments. Police and industrial users too.
Energy products are beginning to catch critical mass, as this quarters results will certainly show. We still have minimal real insight into how quickly Tesla can scale those businesses. I am confident that Q4 results will show profitable Energy results with rapid increases in margins and volumes coming next year.
As Semi and Roadster enter we'll also see unexpected benefits, not least of which will be the increasing impact of those products on the ability to cross sell others. Of course, Tesla deployment fo Semi to haul Teslas will decrease delivery costs also.
Were I an actual TSLA analyst I would put my staff to work evaluating all those elements, plus the net effects of geographic expansion worldwide.
Keep in mind that in major parts of the US, even California, Tesla distribution still is quite spotty. When Model Y and Cybertruck appear there will suddenly be major need for distribution to supplement major metropolitan areas and direct local sales in the 'franchise protection' States of the US and elsewhere.
When major German and Chinese entrants gain worldwide impact during 2021-2025 Tesla will suddenly need massive growth in distribution and support since cars, trucks, solar and storage products all will be entering mass global adoption at more or less the same time. Koreans and Japanese, while behind, will begin to come quickly. GM is moving rapidly, by their standards, and have a big advantage through the established GM/LG US history with Volt/Bolt. They will become major players from 2022 on. Will Toyota wake up? How about FCA/PSA? Anybody doubting that Geely is not becoming a harbinger of the future? For the last one, look at Polestar 2! Then London Taxi International. levc-geely-london-electric-black-taxis-cabs
Thus, my analytic staff would examine carefully the expected results of decreasing market share of rapidly growing markets. I am quite certain that we are all vastly underestimating the transformations coming during the 2020-2025 period.
My group cannot really afford to do all this work independently.
Of course we might all be cooking before then, since all these things are dwarfed by global climactic changes. Maybe Elon is correct to consider submarines...
The Conversation through Space.com - this morning: Love It or Hate It, Tesla Cybertruck Is Revolutionary
That's not how it works, at least in theory; any jump when inclusion is announced would just be the final step in an ongoing ramp in share price as the odds of S&P inclusion become increasingly likely. The jump in SP we've seen since the Q3 report would be, in part, because of an increase in people betting on S&P inclusion.
If nobody bet on S&P inclusion, then there would be a massive spike when it happened. But because there would be a massive spike, obviously people bet on it, proportional to the odds of it actually happening.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's a win for EV's and sustainable energy. Extract less oil and make it cost more.
My understanding is that S&P Index tracking funds don't add a stock until it is actually part of the appropriate S&P group. That step function will create additional buying pressure and stock price increase. There would also be run up as part of expected inclusion (and resulting bump)
Does Inclusion in an Index Increase the Price of a Stock?
On the subject of S&P 500 - does anyone know of a "clean" S&P 500 to invest in?
One without oil companies or anything like that.
One without oil companies or anything like that.
I don't understand your point. Of course it's a process, but the actual inclusion provides positive pressure according to everything I've read.
https://www.nber.org/digest/nov13/w19290.html
Past studies have found that companies added to the S&P 500 experience increases in their share values, and yet recent studies with the largest samples also have shown that there are no corresponding declines in share values when firms are deleted from that index. That seeming paradox has led some to conclude that the share-price increases might not only be tied to buying by passive stock-index funds or institutional investors who are benchmarked to various indexes. Rather, the spike in share prices might be associated with an increase in earnings forecasts and improvements in realized earnings at the time a firm is added to an index. Also, some scholars have theorized that lingering "investor recognition" of firms that were once on an index may partially explain why their share prices don't fall after deletions.
My guess is that once the shift is truly happening they will seek to limit production enough to increase price even more. At a certain point anything still running on oil will either be impractical to move to electricity, or sticking to oil for political reasons. Both of those groups are ripe for price gouging.
This also suggests that OPEC believes we are past the point where cheap oil can stop the transition.
The point is that any 5% jump when the actual inclusion is announced would just be the tip of the iceberg - said iceberg being the rampup process from the likelihood of inclusion becoming increasingly likely. So pointing out the specific 5% number is sort of irrelevant.
Unless the claim was that the entire rampup is typically only 5% - something I'd be highly dubious of.
Mike Smith
Active Member
A company with $10B short interest joining the S&P has never happened before. The move higher is going to be much, much more than normal.
Leases are pretty beneficial form a tax perspective in the US as well. I probably would have gone that route with my 3 if a lease had been available at the time.
Yes we agree there. Seems like it would be a bump on top of the run-up caused by the expectation.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Speaking of German incentives, what ever happened to the limit on vehicle length designed to exclude Model 3? Was that ever a real thing, or just a rumor? If anyone could share a link about it or a search term I could use to find articles it would be greatly appreciated.
Just remember, index funds love lending to shorts.
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