Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

For anyone who doesn't want to give Fred a click: they switched from single and dual motor Cybertrucks in late 2021, tri-motor in late 2022, to having dual and tri-motor in late 2021, and the single-motor RWD in late 2022. Likely as a result of the fact only 17% of reservations were single-motor RWD, with the rest split between the other versions, so why not prioritize the more expensive versions?

Since you asked
We made two reservation because we really wanted the tri-motor, but also wanted a CT ASAP. Now, we may only get one*.

*Eventually, we'll have dual (dueling?) Teslas, this just cuts down the the urgency on the AWD purchase.

 

[Krugerrand]

Since you asked
We made two reservation because we really wanted the tri-motor, but also wanted a CT ASAP. Now, we may only get one*.

*Eventually, we'll have dual (dueling?) Teslas, this just cuts down the the urgency on the AWD purchase.

I’m upgrading for sure now. I ordered dual because I wanted one sooner rather than later, but I really wanted tri. Yeah, me! Eating my cake.

 

[elasalle]

OPEC and its allies agree to deepen oil production cuts by a further 500,000 barrels per day

 

[BrooklynEV]

OPEC and its allies agree to deepen oil production cuts by a further 500,000 barrels per day

Production cuts are going to be a regular occurrence.

 

[Lessmog]

Yes! When I read that GF4 parking areas are now filling up with cars ready to deliver, it seemed to me that several thousand MIC deliveries are now nearly guaranteed by end of Q4. The Shanghai and national leaders are not going to want pictures published of thousands of M3s sitting waiting for delivery because Chinese bureaucracy is holding up the final permit. That would detract from their huge PR win showing that in China a huge, complex factory can be built from scratch in 11 months. Whatever mid level dept. issues this sales permit is going to get stepped on hard if they don't grant the permit in the next week or two. Every day that 800 more cars join the ones already parked is going to increase pressure on them to get off the dime.

I'm sure you mean GF3, right ?

 

[Unpilot]

I'm on the Tri-motor upgrade path as well.
Damn you Tesla...always improving.

 

[Prunesquallor]

For anyone who doesn't want to give Fred a click: they switched from single and dual motor Cybertrucks in late 2021, tri-motor in late 2022, to having dual and tri-motor in late 2021, and the single-motor RWD in late 2022. Likely as a result of the fact only 17% of reservations were single-motor RWD, with the rest split between the other versions, so why not prioritize the more expensive versions?

Crap! That means I have to make a decision a year earlier!

 

[StealthP3D]

A) He didn’t say or suggest selling. He did suggest buying all you can if the case is lost and TSLA takes a dive.

The first two sentences were questions (asking whether he had sold based on his prediction that musk would lose the trial and the stock price would decline). This was more than clear by the two question marks.

B) You literally just said what he said about people being emotional and making emotional decisions.

Actually the opposite. @JRP3 said his belief that jurors were emotional and irrational led him to conclude the outcome of the trial was predictable. I said if jurors were, in fact, emotional and irrational, that would make the outcome of the trial less predictable and less certain, not more. Because irrationality and emotionality are harder to predict than rationality.

 

[elasalle]

Kudlow says a trade deal with China is 'close' amid 'intense' talks

Kudlow says a trade deal is close, but Trump is prepared to ‘walk away’ if some conditions not met

 

[SpaceCash]

Yisssss I get my Tri-motor Trk a year sooner than originally advertised! It's awesome because I expected this to happen and it did. I am one with Tesla.

Ommmmmmmmmm
Namaste

 

[UncaNed]

Yes! When I read that GF4 parking areas are now filling up with cars ready to deliver, it seemed to me that several thousand MIC deliveries are now nearly guaranteed by end of Q4. The Shanghai and national leaders are not going to want pictures published of thousands of M3s sitting waiting for delivery because Chinese bureaucracy is holding up the final permit. That would detract from their huge PR win showing that in China a huge, complex factory can be built from scratch in 11 months. Whatever mid level dept. issues this sales permit is going to get stepped on hard if they don't grant the permit in the next week or two. Every day that 800 more cars join the ones already parked is going to increase pressure on them to get off the dime.

Isn't that in Germany??? They really ARE working fast there!

 

[Unpilot]

Kudlow says a trade deal with China is 'close' amid 'intense' talks

Kudlow says a trade deal is close, but Trump is prepared to ‘walk away’ if some conditions not met

Looks like another Orange pump and dump.

 

[ktrivedi70]

For anyone who doesn't want to give Fred a click: they switched from single and dual motor Cybertrucks in late 2021, tri-motor in late 2022, to having dual and tri-motor in late 2021, and the single-motor RWD in late 2022. Likely as a result of the fact only 17% of reservations were single-motor RWD, with the rest split between the other versions, so why not prioritize the more expensive versions?

Yet another data point suggesting they are confident about where they will be with batteries in 2021. Can't wait for that investor day,,,

 

[elasalle]

Tesla updates Cybertruck production timeline after strong pre-orders - Electrek

But AJ's note only had 100K Cybers by 2024 so $500 doesn't seem right ...

 

[jerry33]

Kudlow says a trade deal with China is 'close' amid 'intense' talks

Kudlow says a trade deal is close, but Trump is prepared to ‘walk away’ if some conditions not met

How much do hedge funds pay these guys?

 

[Artful Dodger]

AJ's latest note has several implications:

• by conceding that 2020H1 will be successful for Tesla due to the GF3 rampup, he is also conceding that TSLA will be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion NLT Summer 2020 (that'll be 4 consecutive quarters of profitability, presuming 2019Q4 is profitable)
  
• because Elon has already stated that 2020H2 will be better than 2020H1 (ramp of Model Y complete), and with steady buying pressure from Index funds, TSLA will have an outstanding run in 2020

Thanks, AJ. Too bad he's missed the part about the rampup in Solar roofs and Megapack for TE. By 2025, investors won't view Tesla as just another Auto OEM. No, it'll be more like:

"Tesla: Not your Grandfather's Energy Company"​

Cheers!

June 5, 2019: I am authorized to share this proprietary 2-yr SP prediction, created with our in-house heuristic wholistic NN processor: (with 7-degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon)

 

[CorneliusXX]

OPEC and its allies agree to deepen oil production cuts by a further 500,000 barrels per day

I have a feeling we may hear that headline more frequently over the coming years

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Twitter just floated something like $700M in bonds for an absurdly cheap rate with a 4 handle. One more good quarter and Tesla should do the same. Momentum is gathering quite rapidly.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yisssss I get my Tri-motor Trk a year sooner than originally advertised! It's awesome because I expected this to happen and it did. I am one with Tesla.

Ommmmmmmmmm
Namaste

I was torn. I really want to be the cool kid with the new toy first, but also didn't mind an extra year to get the money together. I guess I need to plan on 2 years then.

 

[Unpilot]

I was torn. I really want to be the cool kid with the new toy first, but also didn't mind an extra year to get the money together. I guess I need to plan on 2 years then.

In 2 years my tri-motor will basically be free....thanks short's!