Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Looks like solar installations top the fastest growing jobs in many states.

 

[jpterpsfan]

FYI The packs are 80kWh.
Model 3 battery pack size

They are not making any SR Model 3 yet.

With the notes others have made, the real total yearly output of batteries being well under 35kWh plus the true LR battery sizes your margin of error is quickly being eaten away. Not to mention the potential (altho I highly doubt) that Musk will include an 80 kWh pack with every purchase just software locked. He really seems to like the software lock. He might include a MR battery with the SR software locked.

I do see a potential for 5 to 6 GWh that WE can not account for with current items on the market but I have never known Tesla not to introduce something new that requires batteries.

Your theory that they moved (are moving) the 18650 production to GF1 might be plausible. They could also build the pack there and free up room in Fremont. Then they could retool the Japan factory to make 2170s for the China GF. That would would be about 3000 cars worth. I am not sure how the tariffs would work importing all the cells but that would only be at the beginning.

I don't think that is true. Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

I think there is zero chance that they produce 74 kWh packs and software-lock them to be 50 kWh packs. Zero. Would kill margins unnecessarily.

I completely agree that it would make sense to move S/X pack production to GF1. I hadn't even thought about the potential to switch the Japan production to 2170s to supply GF3 production, but that also sounds very plausible.

 

[rallykeeper]

But this does not mean that they are immune to criticism, nor does it mean we should get carried away with assuming things will turn out well above their stated guidance. I am trying to theorize while not venturing well outside the boundaries of their guidance.

I'll second this point (though not necessarily the rest of your argument).

Let's stick with Tesla's guidance -- they've actually been doing a pretty good job lately of setting expectations (and neither disappointing nor over-delivering) and I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

As to the original argument against you, I just glanced through the many posts on this, but didn't find the obvious one I was looking for to support you...

Tesla has said that they are guiding to ~375,000 cars this year and Elon guessed that they could hit 400,000. Backing out S/X of 75k-100k; that means no more than somewhere between 275-300k Model 3s.

If I understand your original post, that's almost exactly what you modeled.

That all being said....As others have also mentioned, I will say that you made some assumptions in finding a gap in production -- we don't know enough about where Panasonic is today or what they really mean by 35 (e.g, peak versus planned) or even the skew of battery usage this quarter versus the following quarters. The numbers are highly sensitive and you can envision scenarios where Panasonic's planned capacity is exactly where they need to be to hit Tesla's forecasted guidance.

 

[ReflexFunds]

They significantly overautomated, had to rip out the parts conveyance system and other equipment that was not working consistently, did not properly test and benchmark the battery module production equipment whose development they outsourced, continually pushed back timelines for their customers, and risked running out of cash if they did not solve their problems. In terms of production planning and validation, this was close to a disaster.

Again, I think they do learn from this and screw up future launches slightly less. Clearly battery module and pack production should not be a problem with the Y. They'll find all kinds of other ways to screw up. But, I'm still an investor. I think they have too many brilliant engineers and EV tech, and they have the urgency to push themselves to be the automotive leaders while helping combat climate change. But I'm still going to use realistic estimates and call them out when they do something that I don't think they should have.

It's not exactly easy to ramp the first ever mass production of an electric car, particularly when it was Tesla's first ever mass production of anything and when they were aiming for an industry record design to mass production time. Because EVs share very few components with ICEs, the model 3 consists almost entirely of proprietary and unique parts and the ramp consisted of many different startups, inventing, designing & building cars, cells, modules, packs, body shop, paint, autopilot, robots, cooling system, central screen, motors, electronics, inverters, chargers, seats etc. Trying to manage so many startups to deliver their first product at the same time on an unprecedented scale was one of the most difficult jobs in the world. Sure, there were things Tesla messed up, they had too much automation in places and probably they should have tried to copy some more of the traditional auto production process where possible, but the experiments which did work are now a significant competitive advantage relative to competition.

There will always be delays and problems (even Apple still messes up Iphone launches) but there is little reason to assume future product ramps are going to be anywhere near as difficult. Model Y shares 75% of components with Model 3 and now Tesla has experience of mass production and a refined production plan and simplified process.

That said, Elon is always going to be aggressive on product launch targets. But that's a good thing. Its better to push for the fastest possible time and come in slightly late than to comfortably achieve an arbitrary easy target while taking twice as long, particularly when the future of the planet is at stake.

 

[ZachF]

Yeah, just because the plant is capable of producing 35 GWh, doesn't mean they plan at running it at 100% capacity. There may be headroom for projects like this. Tesla may indeed have asked for headroom, and may be paying for it.

Another source of demand for 2170 that people may be missing is the China gigafactory. They could be planning on initially supplying the Chinese units from Reno until they get a local supply online, then they could switch it over to the Model Y when that's ready.

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[Cosmacelf]

He doesn't add a lot of new info, and he quotes someone that made a mistake. My comment to the YouTube:

Nah, Maxwell is not interesting to Tesla for their ultra capacitors. It is indeed all about the dry electrode: cheaper manufacturing, and better performance. That tweet you reference isn't correct. The tweet mixes up battery pack Wh/kg with cell level Wh/kg. Tesla is around 250 Wh/kg now at the cell level, so this is better, but not 3x better. More info about this here: https://rivianauto.club/xf/threads/teslas-battery-cell-technology-acquisition-maxwell.54/

 

[EVNow]

And how would this possibly lower the capital costs of building Superchargers for Tesla? Doing this would make capital costs explode.

This was asked of EM on twitter and he replied they will explain when they reveal v3.

 

[EVNow]

Again, I think they do learn from this and screw up future launches slightly less. Clearly battery module and pack production should not be a problem with the Y. They'll find all kinds of other ways to screw up.

I've been part of all kinds of projects where people had tons of experience and they all screwed up some thing or the other. The whole point is - are you agile enough to correct course and be effective in the end.

Nissan has 100+ years of experience building cars - but their Leaf Gen2 w/ 60kWh pack is atleast 2 years late. Audi has shown a dozen EV concepts and builds none. Mitsu was 5+ years late in bringing Outlander PHEV to US - so no one is buying them now. etc etc

The good part is - they are not going to attempt anymore moonshots. The better part ? The Model 3 moonshot was a success !

 

[Sudre]

I was wondering how the Roadster II was going to get it's 500 mile pack. This is probably it. I don't think we see them in S/3/X. Those are locked with Panasonic. The Y, Semi and Roadster that we couldn't figure out where those batteries were coming from.... well I think we have found it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've been part of all kinds of projects where people had tons of experience and they all screwed up some things or the other. The whole point is - are you agile enough to correct course and be effective in the end.

Nissan has 100+ years of experience building cars - but their Leaf Gen2 w/ 60kWh pack is atleast 2 years late. Audi has shown a dozen EV concepts and builds none. Mitsu was 5+ years late in bringing Outlander PHEV to US - so no one is buying them now. etc etc

The good part is - they are not going to attempt anymore moonshots. The better part ? The Model 3 moonshot was a success !

Yes that's Tesla in a nutshell. They make lots of obvious mistakes, yet they end up on top anyways.

After running my own company for a while I came to the conclusion that while we made our share of mistakes, the competition's was usually a lot worse.

 

[M3Rider]

New Battery Cell Patented By Tesla: Faster Charging, Lower Cost

Wondering how long before they can put that into production. In time for Y?

 

[Carl Raymond]

That's incorrect. The battery still needs to provide power to overcome aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance, and mechanical friction of the drivetrain (half-shaft, wheel bearings, motor bearings, etc).

I guess the purple line should be read as you're drawing battery "power" to maintain speed, and you'd acquire battery "power" when regenerating.

‘Drop right off’ must be a local expression. I did not mean drop to zero, merely to a low value, hence energy used must climb.

Power by definition is rate of energy transfer, it is not ‘acquired’, used, stored, accumulated, drawn, etc. To use those words is to confuse power with energy, as your cited study did.

 

[jhm]

But wait a second, do you think Tesla might use 2170s in the S & X next month?



jk!

 

[JRP3]

I was wondering how the Roadster II was going to get it's 500 mile pack. This is probably it. I don't think we see them in S/3/X. Those are locked with Panasonic. The Y, Semi and Roadster that we couldn't figure out where those batteries were coming from.... well I think we have found it.

The numbers in the video are wrong, as has been explained in the comment section.

 

[Singuy]

Joe Rogan bought a S P100D, fully endorses the car.

"That Tesla is the future, like when you drive it, you realize other cars are stupid".
“Like punching through a worm hole”
"I have a GT3RS...and that Tesla will leave it in the dust'.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

His name is not about Peterson, but being a Maryland Terrapin's fan (tarps). They are terrible at sports, so I wouldn't trust him.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Also this battery deal is a loser. Tesla loses an additional 1 Wh on every battery they make and are soon headed to 0 (kWh).

 

[SPadival]

Speaking of Twitter, can we make some noise and get after f’ing Cramer. He posted Anton wahlman of all the credible people.

Swarm!

Jim Cramer on Twitter

Antoon is baaack on thestreet.com. I would like to remind everyone about how nutty he really is.
I
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The case to split the United States into four countries for Trump, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders

 

[JRP3]

Joe Rogan bought a S P100D, fully endorses the car.

"That Tesla is the future, like when you drive it, you realize other cars are stupid".
“Like punching through a worm hole”
"I have a GT3RS...and that Tesla will leave it in the dust'.

It was great hearing Joe wax broetic about the car but cringey listening to them mangle the technology of evs and hybrids.