Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DrMazeppa]

Absolutely RIDICULOUS.

 

[StealthP3D]

What do people think about the $500 price increase on model 3? Does it mean Tesla sees the 2019 Q1 sales drop won’t happen again?

Tesla Change Tracker (@TslaTracker) | Twitter

I think we will continue to see Tesla adjust vehicle pricing up and down for as far as the eye can see. They will raise prices to reduce order wait times and lower prices to ensure ready demand for full production output.

It's not good if buyers are stacked up and waiting excessively or if it's necessary to temporarily idle production to reduce inventory. The ideal condition is supply and demand in approximate harmony. So, yeah, I don't see any way to achieve that without occasional price adjustments.

 

[M3Rider]

KarenRei mentioned up thread this probably means Q1 is sold out, and I tend to agree. Tesla doesn't want the bad PR of having to slash prices again. This is very bullish to me.

I doubt Q1 is sold out based on 5-8 week delivery estimate on the site. However, they could be seeing an uptick in orders ahead of their ramping capacity...

 

[Remster32]

Deutsche Bank released another report today with some more details from the investor meetings with Martin Viecha at Deutsche Bank’s AutoTech conference. Most of the material was already reported, but here are details that I did not see previously.


Cybertruck:

Management indicated that preorders for the Cybertruck have surpassed 250k and that there is solid demand coming from regions with traditional US pickup geographies.

The battery pack sizes for the Cybertruck were not disclosed but Tesla believes that they can achieve the targeted ranges and price points with the current generation of batteries.


GF3:

Tesla will be building another facility at GF3 to manufacture Model Y, on the south side of the existing building. This will likely have <150k capacity initially. My take: This indicates that the existing building is only for Model 3 (barring perhaps the stamp shop).


GF4:

Tesla believes there will be subsidies given to them by the German government for GF4 given the large amount of recent layoffs by local automakers.


Other:

DB believes there’s little need for Tesla to raise more capital in the near term, citing the $5.3bn in gross cash exiting Q3 and the potential for that to grow in 4Q19. They also note there are no maturities due in the next year.

One clarification to what I posted earlier regarding Model 3 reservations. Tesla indicated that less than 5% of US Model 3 sales come from reservation holders and less than 10% for global orders.

 

[StealthP3D]

Absolutely RIDICULOUS.

Yeah, they took us all the way down to where we were yesterday morning! Don't they know today is a new day and we're supposed to be higher? /s

 

[Nocturnal]

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

It should be based on total EVs sold, not by manufacturer. The credit is there, we don't need to hold it for Ford to claim in the year 2030 when they decide to build some EVs.

Still better than nothing.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Yeah, they took us all the way down to where we were yesterday morning! Don't they know today is a new day and we're supposed to be higher? /s

Yes exactly!
And it is Friday. You do not do that on a Friday. It is not nice .

 

[StealthP3D]

The battery pack sizes for the Cybertruck were not disclosed but Tesla believes that they can achieve the targeted ranges and price points with the current generation of batteries.

My take on this is that the "current generation of batteries" is related to chemistry and format, not to the production process. So if they develop a more efficient way to manufacture them in high-volume, they could see significant cost efficiencies without moving to an entirely new generation of batteries.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What do people think about the $500 price increase on model 3? Does it mean Tesla sees the 2019 Q1 sales drop won’t happen again?

Tesla Change Tracker (@TslaTracker) | Twitter

I think we're seeing more evidence that 1Q19 was more about a battery pack shakedown than anything. Yes it's a slow quarter, but it smells to me like Panasonic took advantage and tried to hardball negotiations for the future partnership. Doesn't look like that turned out too well and we'll likely get more details on Battery Day.

1Q20 Model 3's should sell out no problem since production isn't accelerating much, new markets are open, and the residual Christmas present deliveries will likely run thru the entire month of January.

 

[sundaymorning]

Audi etron owners are disappointed, as usual, media doesn’t want to bash their paying advertisers:

Audi e-tron Owner May Wish He'd Chosen A Tesla Due To Charging Issues

Here’s a link to the audi forum with first hand experience in etron failures:

Charging Failure - AudiWorld Forums

Parts take 4 weeks to replace.

Road Trip Aborted - Disappointing - AudiWorld Forums

Their customers are relying on PlugShare charging rate of 20 miles per hour.

Locked charge port door solution and another terrible holiday trip failure by Audi/EA - AudiWorld Forums

No wonder etron sales have been low, their customers still suffer from major range anxiety, this one is waiting for the Taycan lol.

Waiting for the Taycan because the e-tron's EPA sucks? The wait is over! - AudiWorld Forums

Audi’s battery degradation problems:

Car suddenly has half the normal range - AudiWorld Forums

The day I started using the a/c it chopped the range in half.

Instant range disappearance, battery modules? - AudiWorld Forums

More battery problems.

gradual loss of range - AudiWorld Forums

We've had our e-Tron (Edition One) for over 6 months now. Initially range was fine - pretty near the advertised 200ish mile range - and pretty consistent. Over the last month or two we've seen range gradually go lower and it is now ~30% less than when new. Driving style is the same - split between freeway usage (but not long distances) and around town (low/mid speeds). The primary change has been the weather is colder. We are in Northern California, so it's not that cold.

No over the air updates?

Over-the-air updates? - AudiWorld Forums

There are no over the air software updates. Only map updates. The rumor mill indeed said there will be some additional features available if you pay for them that would get activated over the air. No idea when those are going live.

No OTA updates except Maps, no additional function purchases even though it was supposed to launch mid 2019. MMI is buggy as hell and Audi in the US can’t answer when a software update will be available nor do they have any clue what you’re talking about when asking for a launch date on additional functions.

Maybe they should’ve hidden the damn purchases menu until it was ready to launch. I’ve complained to the dealer and Audi of America multiple times over all the issues and they just try and blame each other. They’re living under a rock!

lots of Bugs in Audi software and looks confusing:

MMI Software Version - AudiWorld Forums

Given the number of issues people are experiencing with MMI buggyness I thought this could be a good place to post our software versions. If versions are different then it's time to go to the dealer and demand a software update

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes exactly!
And it is Friday. You do not do that on a Friday. It is not nice .

My guess is this means instead of nibbling through $360 tentatively, we will blast through $360 with renewed vigor!

Consolidation is good. It's like re-grouping, taking a breather, getting on the same page before the big push. It shows market players that the last run was justified and is not fragile.

 

[mtndrew1]

The US debut of the EQC has been delayed by one year, supposedly due to European demand. Maybe they were going to have their own Taycan-style EPA range flub and are going back for tweaking.

Plausible that this will translate to more Model X/Y sales in calendar 2020.

Mercedes to delay U.S. sales of all-electric EQC by a year

 

[UncaNed]

Contact (email - phone) those who represent you in Congress regarding this issue. I have.

Here's what I wrote:

Please aggressively support the proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits. However, the bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer.

Shouldn't the bill also apply to EVs only, not hybrids?

 

[StealthP3D]

This is not a good look for Linette Lopez:

Earl of FrunkPuppy on Twitter

Journalists need to come clean and admit their mistakes, not continue to spew anti-Tesla rhetoric on top of their previously wrong rhetoric if they want to be respected as people and as journalists.

 

[Nocturnal]

Audi etron owners are disappointed, as usual, media doesn’t want to bash their paying advertisers:

Disappointing. I want Tesla to stay in the lead, but I don't want people scared off of EVs.

 

[sparcs]

Audi e-tron Owner May Wish He'd Chosen A Tesla Due To Charging Issues

Mercedes to delay U.S. sales of all-electric EQC by a year

First the taycan and now these?

people are seriously underestimating how far ahead Tesla is in so many areas including supply chain and charging infrastructure.

The other guys can barely even get 1 factory producing a vehicle and Tesla will have three globally. These are sad times for the legacy automakers.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm still not sure how much of the demand for Tesla is because someone wants an EV and Tesla is the best choice, or if someone wants a Tesla and the fact that it is electric is just an added benefit. My guess is it is more the latter at this point.

 

[mtndrew1]

I'm still not sure how much of the demand for Tesla is because someone wants an EV and Tesla is the best choice, or if someone wants a Tesla and the fact that it is electric is just an added benefit. My guess is it is more the latter at this point.

I think part of it is that people already wanted Tesla’s products but there were so many uncertainties. Charging, road trips, bankwuptcy, quality, service, resale, crashworthiness, etc.

One by one these uncertainties have been dropping away just leaving the cars that consumers have been lusting after.

 

[StealthP3D]

Audi etron owners are disappointed, as usual, media doesn’t want to bash their paying advertisers:

Audi e-tron Owner May Wish He'd Chosen A Tesla Due To Charging Issues

Here’s a link to the audi forum with first hand experience in etron failures:

Charging Failure - AudiWorld Forums

Parts take 4 weeks to replace.

Road Trip Aborted - Disappointing - AudiWorld Forums

Their customers are relying on PlugShare charging rate of 20 miles per hour.

Locked charge port door solution and another terrible holiday trip failure by Audi/EA - AudiWorld Forums

No wonder etron sales have been low, their customers still suffer from major range anxiety, this one is waiting for the Taycan lol.

Waiting for the Taycan because the e-tron's EPA sucks? The wait is over! - AudiWorld Forums

Audi’s battery degradation problems:

Car suddenly has half the normal range - AudiWorld Forums

The day I started using the a/c it chopped the range in half.

Instant range disappearance, battery modules? - AudiWorld Forums

More battery problems.

gradual loss of range - AudiWorld Forums

We've had our e-Tron (Edition One) for over 6 months now. Initially range was fine - pretty near the advertised 200ish mile range - and pretty consistent. Over the last month or two we've seen range gradually go lower and it is now ~30% less than when new. Driving style is the same - split between freeway usage (but not long distances) and around town (low/mid speeds). The primary change has been the weather is colder. We are in Northern California, so it's not that cold.

No over the air updates?

Over-the-air updates? - AudiWorld Forums

There are no over the air software updates. Only map updates. The rumor mill indeed said there will be some additional features available if you pay for them that would get activated over the air. No idea when those are going live.

No OTA updates except Maps, no additional function purchases even though it was supposed to launch mid 2019. MMI is buggy as hell and Audi in the US can’t answer when a software update will be available nor do they have any clue what you’re talking about when asking for a launch date on additional functions.

Maybe they should’ve hidden the damn purchases menu until it was ready to launch. I’ve complained to the dealer and Audi of America multiple times over all the issues and they just try and blame each other. They’re living under a rock!

While it's clear that the Audi e-Tron is no Tesla (not even close), how do we know that some of those stories don't mirror some of the Tesla stories that are essentially either real problems that are blown completely out of proportion or made up entirely from thin air, from people pretending to be real owners, in order to give a black eye to EV's ?

In any case, it's clear that the media is not picking up on them to the same degree as they endlessly reported negativity about Tesla. This can help tell us a little bit about who is actually attacking Tesla. Because VW group has a large ICE business and cannot be put out of business simply by slowing down EV adoption (unlike Tesla). That means shorting VW/Audi/Porche while relentlessly attacking their EV's is not going to work. However, it would still be in the interest of big oil to slow the EV revolution. So, I would assume any media attacks on VW Group EV's would likely originate with oil interests (or other traditional ICE car makers), not short-sellers.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still not sure how much of the demand for Tesla is because someone wants an EV and Tesla is the best choice, or if someone wants a Tesla and the fact that it is electric is just an added benefit. My guess is it is more the latter at this point.

I don't see how you can separate the two.

People want a Tesla because it's better than ICE.
It's better than ICE because it's electric.