Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Disappointing. I want Tesla to stay in the lead, but I don't want people scared off of EVs.

The first is not in question, the second is very real.

So we should be careful to not spread FUD about the EV competition. This doesn't mean we shouldn't stick to the facts and point out how they might not compare favorably to a superior EV.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's better than ICE because it's electric.

I think there's more to it than that, though. There's a cool factor around it, plus the minimal interior is appealing to many, the games, streaming video, OTA updates, and all the other consumer features that are compelling too.

 

[JustMe]

I don't see how you can separate the two.

People want a Tesla because it's better than ICE.
It's better than ICE because it's electric.

A Tesla is not a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt. Being electric is necessary but not sufficient to being the most desirable automobile.

 

[CanadaEV]

I'm still not sure how much of the demand for Tesla is because someone wants an EV and Tesla is the best choice, or if someone wants a Tesla and the fact that it is electric is just an added benefit. My guess is it is more the latter at this point.

That’s a very good question.
By now the majority of Tesla buyers are no longer so much EV enthusiasts as they are Tesla enthusiasts.
Even a year ago September, when I was in on that Tesla-owners volunteering for end of quarter deliveries, I was really surprised that more than half of the buyers I met knew almost nothing about the car. They just knew they wanted a Tesla. Many were astonished by what I showed them about the car’s features.
Now we are at the point where the “boring early adopters“ are being replaced by invigorated converts. In some ways those people are more credible to their friends than the early enthusiasts were.

 

[sundaymorning]

While it's clear that the Audi e-Tron is no Tesla (not even close), how do we know that some of those stories don't mirror some of the Tesla stories that are essentially either real problems that are blown completely out of proportion or made up entirely from thin air, from people pretending to be real owners, in order to give a black eye to EV's ?

In any case, it's clear that the media is not picking up on them to the same degree as they endlessly reported negativity about Tesla. This can help tell us a little bit about who is actually attacking Tesla. Because VW group has a large ICE business and cannot be put out of business simply by slowing down EV adoption (unlike Tesla). That means shorting VW/Audi/Porche while relentlessly attacking their EV's is not going to work. However, it would still be in the interest of big oil to slow the EV revolution. So, I would assume any media attacks on VW Group EV's would likely originate with oil interests (or other traditional ICE car makers), not short-sellers.

I’ve read that Audi etron sales are down and wanted to explore its reasons, it appears that discounts have already been offered to potential etron buyers to entice them to adopt the etron problems noted above.

Their customers are literally calling the Audi dealerships begging them to be proactive on software updates to iron out bugs that would have lights flickering on/off without warning. I mean what is an Audi sales person suppose to do, jump on the computer and start coding like a mad scientist/engineer at Tesla?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting news today in the residential solar world....3Q installs were the highest since 2016.

Residential Solar Hits New Peak in US With Record Q3 Installations

SolarCity shuts down it's sales-heavy model in 2016 and installs flatten/drop. Tesla re-emerges with set online pricing in 2019 and installs perk back up. Coincidence?

 

[StealthP3D]

I think there's more to it than that, though. There's a cool factor around it, plus the minimal interior is appealing to many, the games, streaming video, OTA updates, and all the other consumer features that are compelling too.

Of course there more to it than that! But I was saying you can't reduce the demand thing down to whether it's because it's electric or it's a Tesla. If it was not electric, it wouldn't be a TESLA! You cannot separate the two. If it had an ICE engine, it wouldn't have the performance and economy. And it would spew toxic gases. If you put OTA updates, games and streaming video in a BMW, it still wouldn't sell like a Tesla.

 

[thait84]

I did my part to bump up the delivery number. I'm going to take delivery of a red Model 3 LR very soon. So the delivery estimate for Q4 can be 82,001 cars.

 

[sundaymorning]

Interesting news today in the residential solar world....3Q installs were the highest since 2016.

Residential Solar Hits New Peak in US With Record Q3 Installations

SolarCity shuts down it's sales-heavy model in 2016 and installs flatten/drop. Tesla re-emerges with set online pricing in 2019 and installs perk back up. Coincidence?

I’ve heard Tesla is aiming to break beyond 50 megawatts this quarter. Has anyone heard this?

 

[StealthP3D]

A Tesla is not a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt. Being electric is necessary but not sufficient to being the most desirable automobile.

If you thought I was implying any EV would sell like a Tesla then you misunderstood my point.

The question was whether Teslas were as desirable as they are because they're Teslas or because they're electric. I said you cannot separate the two.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’ve heard Tesla is aiming to break beyond 50 megawatts this quarter. Has anyone heard this?

You "heard" that? It might help if you added some color. Like where did you hear that.

 

[StealthP3D]

I did my part to bump up the delivery number. I'm going to take delivery of a red Model 3 LR very soon. So the delivery estimate for Q4 can be 82,001 cars.

Congrats! But ha! You will not increase Q4 deliveries at all. You will simply push demand for one more car into Q1!

Which is why I said "congrats"!

 

[JustMe]

If you thought I was implying any EV would sell like a Tesla then you misunderstood my point.

The question was whether Teslas were as desirable as they are because they're Teslas or because they're electric. I said you cannot separate the two.

I’m not disagreeing with you.. but there are lots of electric cars to choose from that may be better than ICE vehicles but are not selling so well. Consumers are not flocking to EVs, but they are flocking to Teslas.

 

[sundaymorning]

You "heard" that? It might help if you added some color. Like where did you hear that.

From a unreliable person familiar with the matter.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This is not a good look for Linette Lopez:

Earl of FrunkPuppy on Twitter

Journalists need to come clean and admit their mistakes, not continue to spew anti-Tesla rhetoric on top of their previously wrong rhetoric if they want to be respected as people and as journalists.

Well, Linette is the absolute bottom of the barrel. The rest of the big names exhibit some major bias and stretch the truth to breaking, but usually tend to at least have what they say be accurate, if sometimes misleading. She seems to just push out anything negative she can think of, truth be damned.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I think there's more to it than that, though. There's a cool factor around it, plus the minimal interior is appealing to many, the games, streaming video, OTA updates, and all the other consumer features that are compelling too.

Most of those features are either only possible in an EV or at least work better in one, which was the point, I think.

 

[BornToFly]

Audi etron owners are disappointed, as usual, media doesn’t want to bash their paying advertisers:

Audi e-tron Owner May Wish He'd Chosen A Tesla Due To Charging Issues

Here’s a link to the audi forum with first hand experience in etron failures:

Charging Failure - AudiWorld Forums

Parts take 4 weeks to replace.

Road Trip Aborted - Disappointing - AudiWorld Forums

Their customers are relying on PlugShare charging rate of 20 miles per hour.

Locked charge port door solution and another terrible holiday trip failure by Audi/EA - AudiWorld Forums

No wonder etron sales have been low, their customers still suffer from major range anxiety, this one is waiting for the Taycan lol.

Waiting for the Taycan because the e-tron's EPA sucks? The wait is over! - AudiWorld Forums

Audi’s battery degradation problems:

Car suddenly has half the normal range - AudiWorld Forums

The day I started using the a/c it chopped the range in half.

Instant range disappearance, battery modules? - AudiWorld Forums

More battery problems.

gradual loss of range - AudiWorld Forums

We've had our e-Tron (Edition One) for over 6 months now. Initially range was fine - pretty near the advertised 200ish mile range - and pretty consistent. Over the last month or two we've seen range gradually go lower and it is now ~30% less than when new. Driving style is the same - split between freeway usage (but not long distances) and around town (low/mid speeds). The primary change has been the weather is colder. We are in Northern California, so it's not that cold.

No over the air updates?

Over-the-air updates? - AudiWorld Forums

There are no over the air software updates. Only map updates. The rumor mill indeed said there will be some additional features available if you pay for them that would get activated over the air. No idea when those are going live.

No OTA updates except Maps, no additional function purchases even though it was supposed to launch mid 2019. MMI is buggy as hell and Audi in the US can’t answer when a software update will be available nor do they have any clue what you’re talking about when asking for a launch date on additional functions.

Maybe they should’ve hidden the damn purchases menu until it was ready to launch. I’ve complained to the dealer and Audi of America multiple times over all the issues and they just try and blame each other. They’re living under a rock!

lots of Bugs in Audi software and looks confusing:

MMI Software Version - AudiWorld Forums

Given the number of issues people are experiencing with MMI buggyness I thought this could be a good place to post our software versions. If versions are different then it's time to go to the dealer and demand a software update

It was interesting to read some of the comments on those forums. The group think seems to be that EVs just don't make good vehicles for long distance travel. No much talk about how this is not the case if you just buy a Tesla....

 

[Doggydogworld]

Alphabet's Latent Logic Buyout Bolsters Waymo Initiatives

If Waymo's self-driving was as good as Waymo wants people to think ...

Waymo's self-driving is not as good as they'd like people to think. Neither is anyone else's. They're all behind schedule. This acqui-hire means nothing. I said the same thing to the TSLAQ cult when Tesla bought DeepScale. Talent is in high demand, so you grab it when you can.

For what its worth, I expect Waymo to be granted a license for full autonomy in at least one market before Tesla.

Waymo vans with empty driver's seats cruise around Phoenix suburbs every day. Mostly with members of the public, but sometimes with journalists. They can do the same around Mountain View, CA. Do you think they do this without a license?

If Tesla wants to acqu-hire someone, they should look at Voyage who is working on a super-AEB. What makes this interesting, IMHO, is that it's independent of the regular self-driving system. Independent, uncorrelated systems can dramatically reduce failure rates. Voyage uses an expensive 32 line LIDAR, but the concept should work with the cheap, low res LIDARs beginning to appear. This assumes they've done meaningful work vs. mere demoware, of course, especially on the false positive problem. But if so I think this approach could solve one of Tesla's biggest problems with relatively little cost.

 

[sundaymorning]

Well, Linette is the absolute bottom of the barrel. The rest of the big names exhibit some major bias and stretch the truth to breaking, but usually tend to at least have what they say be accurate, if sometimes misleading. She seems to just push out anything negative she can think of, truth be damned.

I like how Vincent replies to her:

New orders come in every minute. Let’s extrapolate: 24 hours x 60 = 1,440 a day 7 days = 10,080 a week.

So Chinese orders are coming in at 10k/week?

Twitter

 

[Driver Dave]

I don't see how you can separate the two.

People want a Tesla because it's better than ICE.
It's better than ICE because it's electric.

I explain Tesla to people as Ketchup.

People love Ketchup because it hits on all five tastes—sweet, sour, salty, bitter, and umami.

The same with Tesla.

It hits so many things:

Tech - Not 4 years behind.
Style - No thousands of buttons.
Buying - No dealers, hassle free
Environment - feels good to help
Service - no oil changes, less dealer "service plans"
EV - Less than gas
Performance - even standard is super fast
Ride - no noisy engine, super smooth
Fun - has Netflix, caraoke, games, farts
Elon - fun to be part of Elon's forward thinking world

So ok, maybe not Ketchup.

Tesla is Mega-Ketchup.