Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Waymo's self-driving is not as good as they'd like people to think. Neither is anyone else's. They're all behind schedule. This acqui-hire means nothing. I said the same thing to the TSLAQ cult when Tesla bought DeepScale. Talent is in high demand, so you grab it when you can.

Waymo vans with empty driver's seats cruise around Phoenix suburbs every day. Mostly with members of the public, but sometimes with journalists. They can do the same around Mountain View, CA. Do you think they do this without a license?

If Tesla wants to acqu-hire someone, they should look at Voyage who is working on a super-AEB. What makes this interesting, IMHO, is that it's independent of the regular self-driving system. Independent, uncorrelated systems can dramatically reduce failure rates. Voyage uses an expensive 32 line LIDAR, but the concept should work with the cheap, low res LIDARs beginning to appear. This assumes they've done meaningful work vs. mere demoware, of course, especially on the false positive problem. But if so I think this approach could solve one of Tesla's biggest problems with relatively little cost.

You are talking demos, not an approved ride share. That they do not have (absent the safety driver)

 

[Tim S]

I did my part to bump up the delivery number. I'm going to take delivery of a red Model 3 LR very soon. So the delivery estimate for Q4 can be 82,001 cars.

My uncle took delivery of a Model 3 yesterday in Florida, exactly 2 weeks after he placed his order on 11/28. (1000 free Supercharger miles for me!) The Tesla site said 5 weeks until delivery at the time.

 

[Tyler34]

We need a few more buyers... who's with me?

I'm in for a few more.

I'm in for 65 more shares

 

[Zaxxon]

Tangentially investment-related as it should help our Canadian friends do long road trips in Teslas in a more stress-free manner and therefore goose demand: the Canadian Supercharger Construction Extravaganza we've had over the past months is rapidly turning into the Canadian Supercharger Holiday Opening Extravaganza.

 

[SpaceCash]

Is it me or does TSLA actually do better when the rest of the market is red?

Been like this more often than not and a lot of OG posters here still act surprised when they see it...

 

[Singuy]

My uncle took delivery of a Model 3 yesterday in Florida, exactly 2 weeks after he placed his order on 11/28. (1000 free Supercharger miles for me!) The Tesla site said 5 weeks until delivery at the time.

A friend of mine took delivery 5 days ago after a 3 week wait. She said the Orlando Fl SC is delivering 40 cars/day.

 

[M3Rider]

How about some predictions, anybody wants to volunteer? Just for fun.
.....
4. Today's close - you have to guess a precise number (between 358 and 360)
5. Same for tomorrow.

So, regarding those inquiries for future closing prices ...

Sorry folks, I don't have them. I really don't.
These were the only two available to me.

 

[Singuy]

Disappointing. I want Tesla to stay in the lead, but I don't want people scared off of EVs.

They won't.

I bought an Iphone alternative during the early smart phone craze. Remember it being an HTC Kick. Short battery life and laggy as hell. Practically impossible to dial a number when you are in the car due to the lagginess. It was miles worst than any flip phone because it was just a total failure as a PHONE. Eventually got rid of it for an iPhone 3GS. Mind was blown that it just works.

Tesla just works and the experience is second to none. The rest of the competitors are just giving people buyers remorse more than anything. And unlike phones that is laggy, it's not an urgent matter vs a car being stranded or calling off visiting your family. Most people are making the right choice by buying Tesla because there's really little room for error and can't afford to "experiment" with other car companies.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You are talking demos, not an approved ride share. That they do not have (absent the safety driver)

Well, I guess you could call the entire Waymo One program a demo. But most consider it a ride share service. Waymo One has two classes of riders, Regular and Early Experience. They schedules rides using the same app and ride in the same vans to the same places. But EEs are still under NDA. Sometimes when EEs schedule a ride the van shows up without a safety driver. They get in and ride to their destination, same as always. How is that a demo and not a ride share? What would even be the point of doing demos under NDA?

 

[ZeApelido]

Well, Linette is the absolute bottom of the barrel. The rest of the big names exhibit some major bias and stretch the truth to breaking, but usually tend to at least have what they say be accurate, if sometimes misleading. She seems to just push out anything negative she can think of, truth be damned.

In the year 2050, journalist Annette Wahlpez will report that QoQ sales of Tesla Model 3 on Mars have dropped and imply bankruptcy is immiment.

Ze's daughter will note to others while in Tesla Motors Virtual Reality Cafe that Wahlpez did not take into account the wave and seasonal variation in SpaceX rocket transport.

 

[humbaba]

Well, I guess you could call the entire Waymo One program a demo. But most consider it a ride share service. Waymo One has two classes of riders, Regular and Early Experience. They schedules rides using the same app and ride in the same vans to the same places. But EEs are still under NDA. Sometimes when EEs schedule a ride the van shows up without a safety driver. They get in and ride to their destination, same as always. How is that a demo and not a ride share? What would even be the point of doing demos under NDA?

So you are saying it is now open to the public? I can just go and hail one? When did that happen? Because November 2018 the launch was... underwhelming and definitely still using safety drivers. Its a bit strange that Waymo, after trumpeting their launch, would low key transitioning to driver-less.

----
For example: "After months of testing, Waymo has officially launched the country’s first commercial autonomous ride-share service." Sounds good, right? But, "its ride-share service is the company’s use of safety drivers to supervise the rides." That same article talks about how its limited in riders.

Waymo starts commercial ride-share service

Then Early Rider Program – Waymo -- so you can sign up, but apparently there are waitlists and the faq also mentions its "select riders"

Sorry, but that isn't the same as Uber, even if you are in the one market they have and it seems only on the edge of being autonomous, the same as last year

Perhaps you were referring to this one? Hailing a driverless ride in a Waymo – TechCrunch

According to that they are doing selected driverless in Phoenix, and from the what is said it sounds limited and selected. For example, "Waymo wouldn’t share specific numbers on just how many driverless rides it would be giving, only saying that it continues to ramp up its operations." As expected, it is "early rider program" who will have access.

Again, not exactly open to the public. Do they have a license to operate? Sure. Maybe they have even convinced the regulator and they have license to offer rides to the public for a fee and are just choosing not to do so. But that doesn't seem very likely as paying a safety driver costs them money.

Ah, yes, and this "The company’s driverless rides are currently free." I recall that being one of the regulatory sticking points. So, no, not actually an autonomous ride share

 

[Singuy]

It was interesting to read some of the comments on those forums. The group think seems to be that EVs just don't make good vehicles for long distance travel. No much talk about how this is not the case if you just buy a Tesla....

I think it's because people who bought an Etron because they didn't want a Tesla (obviously), and not because they got conned into an Etron. Perhaps they think Elon is a fraud, the interior is crappy, has terrible craftsmanship, etc etc. So I'm pretty sure they have heard it all from Tesla enthusiasts and only want to focus on the problem described by the OP vs being called dumb for not buying a Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

I like how Vincent replies to her:

New orders come in every minute. Let’s extrapolate: 24 hours x 60 = 1,440 a day 7 days = 10,080 a week.

So Chinese orders are coming in at 10k/week?

Twitter

Right right, out of reach. You know what's out of reach? Getting the right to drive on city roads in China with an ICE car because license plate distribution for ICE cars are severely limited to the point that to buy one on the secondary market cost 160,000 Yuan (22k US)!

This is the reason for Tesla manufacturing in China ASAP. The government discourages people so much from getting an ICE car that people are buying EVs like no other country on earth. But only QUALITY EVs (not shoddy EVs from unknown manufactures) can qualify for a license plate easily.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just sent an email to Editor-In-Chief of Canadian magazine, Renovation Contractor. Our voices need to be heard.


Dear Mr. Jim Caruk, Editor-In-Chief, Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine

Kudos to Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine for your December 2019 / January 2020 Edition article "Charge It - Everything you need to know about installing electric vehicle chargers", by Alex Newman. Glad to see more and more Green articles and an Annual Green Issue to boot and I enjoy reading your bi-monthly Magazine. From what is otherwise an excellently written and informative article, I do have one issue which I feel requires correction in your next issue. Alex states “New EVs can travel about 100 km on one charge, with some going as far as 160 km”.

Personally, I know my fully electric vehicle, Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD, which I have been driving since June 2018 gets 525 km on one charge. Other EVs currently available have even longer range, such as the Tesla Model S Performance at 560 km on one charge. Heck, even the yet to be released 2020 Porche Taycan Turbo has a range of 323 km. Links to EPA results are provided below.

With information so readily available on Google, why was Alex’s information not checked for accuracy. The article portrays the myth that EVs are only short commuter City range vehicles. Range anxiety is no longer a problem for many EVs. EVs without compromise. Today.

tesla m3 EPA range

Porche Taycan Turbo EPA range

Yours Truly,

 

[Words of HABIT]

Received this email today...

Daniel,
Thanks for writing. We really appreciate the feedback. As much as we strive for accuracy, sometimes errors do creep in. I’ll share this with the writer and we’ll run a correction in the next issue.
Cheers,
Allan

Allan Britnell
Managing Editor
Renovation Contractor:
The Voice of the Canadian Contractor

 

[Krugerrand]

Can we get an email leak stating that expected deliveries will be like 120k or something?

Dude, seriously.

The leaked email needs to say 83,000.

 

[capster]

It’s showing now:

• SR+ Tesla Change Tracker on Twitter
• LR DM Tesla Change Tracker on Twitter

I’ve had a feeling Tesla’s pricing power might be strengthening. Nice to see it is so, as it part of the reason I’ve continued to lean against the pulling-their-punches-this-quarter hypothesis.

 

[ZsoZso]

TSLA closing price 2019 OCT 04: $231.43. Current price: $357.39.

CNBC - 2019 OCT 04: 'There's absolutely no reason to own' Tesla in the near term, says wealth manager

I love his title "wealth manager", does this refer to the fact that he manages to turn wealthy people into poor people ?
aka he manages to distribute the wealth among people more evenly

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - today: U.S. prosecutor calls on UAW to cooperate, probe may widen

 

[humbaba]

Well, I guess you could call the entire Waymo One program a demo. But most consider it a ride share service. Waymo One has two classes of riders, Regular and Early Experience. They schedules rides using the same app and ride in the same vans to the same places. But EEs are still under NDA. Sometimes when EEs schedule a ride the van shows up without a safety driver. They get in and ride to their destination, same as always. How is that a demo and not a ride share? What would even be the point of doing demos under NDA?

To put a pointed answer to this:

It is a demo because they didn't pay. Waymo is not allowed to charge

"What is the point of doing demos under NDA"

I don't know, what is the point of Tesla giving tours under NDA.

edit: in case you need it answered, it allows them to control messaging. Like the Tech Crunch article which carefully skirts those issues about them not actually having an autonomous ride sharing service. Why are you so insistent that it is something more than it is? Before you tried to contradict me I said I expected Waymo to have the first autonomous ride share. The difference is just the tense. Its still in the future.