Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

FAR too many non-market-related jibberjabber over CT. THIS TIME, a bunch of them have been moved to the CT thread.

THIS WAS TELEGRAPHED IN ADVANCE....and more than once.

This is not only to keep this thread a little more focused. It also is to enable those of you who are not fluent in Pickuptruckese to learn from those who do. And judged from the quality of the postings, a fair number of you are not fluent.

NEXT TIME, Mods will be deleting posts outright. Try to make sure there won't be a next time.

 

[Zero CO2]

"The big players will just be able to come in whenever they want and crush Tesla!!".

The fact of the matter is, there is extremely little experiential overlap between designing and building a BEB power train and designing and building an ICE drivetrain. The idea that big ICE manufacturers could just swoop in and crush Tesla with superior designs was stupid on the face of it.

I see an even bigger leadership/HR problem for the incumbents... the engineering talent in legacy auto is heavily ME, (SAE, ASME, etc.)

Telsa and EVs in general shift the required talent and design leadership to strong Systems Engineers , EE(IEEE) , Industrial E, Software Engineers and Computer Scientists , MEs will still be required but w/o the ICE /drive-trains and all the other complex mechanical systems in ICE vehicles essentially removed or made static by EVs.(a lot less moving parts)

OEMS will need to navigate a huge technical leadership and workforce change that will take years to accomplish all while trying to keep up with the innovation at Tesla... I don't see many of them surviving this sea change.

Couple this with the fact that young engineers coming out of top schools "want" to work at Tesla , Space X , etc , it is going to be a tough road for Legacy OEMs

I have lived through this experience in my chosen field Wireless Telecom , where EEs where most sought after and HW/Network Design was key, over time we have moved to Software Defined Networks and the knowledge worker shift has been to Software Engineers, System Engineers, Comp Sci, and Coders it has taken years and the change-over is still a work in progress for over 10 years , lucky for us Telecom is very hard to break into due to the geographic monopolies (oligolopy space) so we have had the luxury of time to make the shift ... ICE manufacturers will not be so lucky... in fact it may already be too late.

 

[Tslynk67]

So yeah, well, I guess MaxPain is $357.50 *yawn*

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla is not really tracking the index's ...I'm seeing a recovery in the NASDAQ and SP-500 but not Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

All true. I thought I'd checked NASDAQ but Market Watch uses mouseover to change that and I'd missed. Good point about yesterday's open interest.

That said, NASDAQ is recovering while $TSLA is still languishing in the red. And, regardless of the causes, my observation was that the pattern had broken. Of course there are causes

You're right. As the macros recovered nicely, TSLA just limped. Not all stocks have weekly options or are as volatile as TSLA, so those may be heavier factors today. Fridays draw in the TSLA manipulators, and may cause others with TSLA buy programs to pause.

 

[humbaba]

That could be the key right there. They claim their computer vision is better than anything else published. If Waymo was going to transition from a LIDAR based system to a vision based one this could be very valuable.

Interesting, but I seriously doubt Waymo is doing that. All of this video is Latent Logic's data source for predicting behavior. At first I thought it was going to take data from a vehicle's point of view which would be a poor fit for Waymo but possibly interesting for Tesla. Instead, it is taking external video footage and using that to predict behavior. This trained information would be connected to Waymo's system's identified vehicles to then predict what would happen. Its about predictive knowledge as to what other vehicles will do.

Now, I don't develop autonomous driving systems, much less Waymo's, so I could be off here. My analysis is strictly from a capabilities perspective. And it fits nicely with Waymo because it would help them overcome a known weakness. If someone more versed in the subject wants to weigh in that would be helpful. I know @KarenRei has more knowledge than I do.

However, if they did switch to vision that could seriously shake things up and give Tesla actual competition.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

If the extension gets the green light, there would be a $7,000 credit until a manufacturer hits 600,000 vehicles sold.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I guess we now know where max pain lies today.....$358. Hilarious they can push SP this easily.

 

[Tslynk67]

Should have sold them....like I should have sold my 420's when they jumped way up.

Yeah... It's the Trump dump that the MM's have used as a vehicle to get the stock down. If it had been a more concrete arrangement with China then we might have had another big day. So it was a gamble and I lost.

My Jan 21 $650's are fine though!

 

[Curt Renz]

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Contact (email - phone) those who represent you in Congress regarding this issue. I have.

Here's what I wrote:

Please aggressively support the proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits. However, the bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer.

 

[Tslynk67]

You're right. As the macros recovered nicely, TSLA just limped. Not all stocks have weekly options or are as volatile as TSLA, so those may be heavier factors today. Fridays draw in the TSLA manipulators, and may cause others with TSLA buy programs to pause.

On the other hand, if there are people wanting to buy into a long position, it's a good moment.

 

[Unpilot]

I guess we now know where max pain lies today.....$358. Hilarious they can push SP this easily.

Max pain is actually 347.5

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[scaesare]

See!

In all seriousness, I know people who dislike EVs because of this. I know someone who is buying their next vehicle based on how the engine compartment is laid out so it will be easy to check/maintain/change spark plugs. Won't consider an EV (even though an M3 would be close enough price-wise to be worth evaluating) because it doesn't offer easy maintenance access for oil, plugs, etc.

That's ridiculous... he can toss his spark plugs and oil filters in the frunk and access to them any time he wants is a breeze!

 

[Tslynk67]

Latest shorty-forecast from S3

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[Davidzhao365]

What do people think about the $500 price increase on model 3? Does it mean Tesla sees the 2019 Q1 sales drop won’t happen again?

Tesla Change Tracker (@TslaTracker) | Twitter

 

[riverFox]

What do people think about the $500 price increase on model 3? Does it mean Tesla sees the 2019 Q1 sales drop won’t happen again?

Tesla Change Tracker (@TslaTracker) | Twitter

KarenRei mentioned up thread this probably means Q1 is sold out, and I tend to agree. Tesla doesn't want the bad PR of having to slash prices again. This is very bullish to me.

 

[mtndrew1]

What do people think about the $500 price increase on model 3? Does it mean Tesla sees the 2019 Q1 sales drop won’t happen again?

Tesla Change Tracker (@TslaTracker) | Twitter

Implies to me that global demand for full price products is sufficient to max out Fremont for the foreseeable future.

 

[Unpilot]

We need a few more buyers... who's with me?

I'm in for a few more.

 

[HG Wells]

Looks like they are trying to push it down to 355

 

[Lessmog]

We need a few more buyers... who's with me?

I'm in for a few more.

I'm good, thanks.
Oh, I thought you said a few more burgers?