Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DurandalAI]

Yeah, theta and IV decline were killing me too. Even good days like this just wouldn't have been enough to offset the inevitable bad days. Eventually you look at the situation and decide... I'm out.

In addition to my stock I have August 250s and a nice stack of 22 Feb $300s (doubling down when the stock was low really saved my skin). Yesterday I cashed in all my 15 Feb calls and my $350 22 Feb calls, which only bought a few of what I replaced them with (1 Mar $340s). But there's a lot less heartburn with them - gains are actually gains. Shouldn't be hard at all to have the paid off and turning a good profit by then. Should be trade news by well before 1 Mar. Maybe even confirmation of paying off the convertibles, if I were to ride them all the way to expiry.

If not... well, sucks to be me, but at least I have my stock and low-leverage calls. I see no rush to cash out on my 22 Feb $300s; I'll just roll them a couple days before expiry, to some safe, distant expiry.

I've finally ventured into buying calls on TSLA. I previously had only been selling calls and puts on smaller $5 renewable energy stocks. I probably miss out on some of the upside but after a dip, I'll buy some March 290s, and sell after I make 8-10%. I may be wrong, but I feel like it's safer for me. I can't have too much risk for my EAP & Dual motor money.

How long do you typically hold onto them, out of curiosity?

 

[Artful Dodger]

".to"??????? What jurisdiction is that? Togo?

In all seriousness: is this a fraudulent or a legitimate site?

.to is Tonga. Yes, it's legit. Tonga makes a good chunk of their annual GDP now by selling top-level domains (TLDs).

BTW, Togo is .tg

 

[EVNow]

Partnership with Amazon is a big deal. It makes sense with Tesla's sales structure, works well with their goal of selling everything online with simple clicks. This way they don't need to spend money on sales & marketing, don't need to worry about shipping. And Amazon isn't localized, they are world-wide.

They have to pay Amazon to warehouse & ship. It's not cheap. Its just less headache - and possibly saves Tesla some headcount.

 

[Curt Renz]

About an hour ago on CNBC new panelist Mark Tepper advised viewers to sell Tesla shares, because Model S & X test drives are down 50% year over year. I have no idea where he got that information, but if true:

A temporary dip could have been expected when tax credits were halved. Three more months of free Supercharging is now given to those who choose not to test drive. A car can now be returned for a refund within three days with no questions asked if no test drive was taken. Since most of those cars are made to order, one cannot easily test drive a particular car and then choose to buy it. There are now so many of those cars out there that a great many prospects can now test drive a friend’s car.

By incentivizing not to test drive, fewer employees and test cars are needed at Tesla stores. The business decision to discourage test drives is a sound one. It’s added reason to buy the stock, not sell it.

Money manager Tepper started a new anti-Tesla Twitter thread and won't relent: Mark Tepper on Twitter

Please feel free to join the Twitter conversation.

Mark Tepper will again be one of the CNBC panelists during this hour.

 

[jhm]

I've finally ventured into buying calls on TSLA. I previously had only been selling calls and puts on smaller $5 renewable energy stocks. I probably miss out on some of the upside but after a dip, I'll buy some March 290s, and sell after I make 8-10%. I may be wrong, but I feel like it's safer for me. I can't have too much risk for my EAP & Dual motor money.

How long do you typically hold onto them, out of curiosity?

I generally hold till worthless. Not an advice.

 

[Zaxxon]

FWIW, I just emailed the referral program with a question about my awards that's not relevant here. But I received back, immediately, a generic thank you from [email protected]. This is definitely a new thing. Perhaps the communication improvement plan is beginning to be implemented?

 

[KarenRei]

I've finally ventured into buying calls on TSLA. I previously had only been selling calls and puts on smaller $5 renewable energy stocks. I probably miss out on some of the upside but after a dip, I'll buy some March 290s, and sell after I make 8-10%. I may be wrong, but I feel like it's safer for me. I can't have too much risk for my EAP & Dual motor money.

How long do you typically hold onto them, out of curiosity?

How long I hold onto them - and how long anyone should - is entirely dependent on the situation. The leverage on a given call will change over time, even if the stock doesn't. And your assessment of the potential movement for TSLA will change over time. I may hold onto a call for just days, or many months. Depends entirely on the situation.

The main thing I'd recommend is just keep in mind: add leverage when the stock is cheap, decrease leverage when it's expensive. Which of course seems simple and patently obvious, but it's easy to mess up if you're not thinking things through. For example, I proved good at calling the highs late last year, even though I wasn't very confident about the lows. So I'd sell some stock at the highs, let the SP drop by $20 or so, and buy slightly OTM calls - knowing I wasn't buying at the bottom, but hey, the SP was a lot lower than when I sold the stock, so great, right? No, not at all. I was effectively leveraging up at SPs that I wasn't confident were near the bottom. It wasn't the highs that mattered in that situation, it was the lows. A more reasonable strategy - for a person who wasn't confident in the lows - would have been to only add mild leverage (e.g. deep ITM calls), and only leverage up closer to events you feel are likely to move the market. Keeping in mind that if other people think said events will move the market, that'll raise IV and you'll pay a premium for those options, so you may want to leverage up somewhat in advance.

I'd also add: facing a choice between buying $1000 of OTM calls at a SP $X, or $500 of said call at a SP of $(X+20) and $500 at an SP of $(X-20).... go with the latter. You'll end up with a lot more calls if you spread your buys out across a volatile period rather than buying all at once, unless you happen to time the bottom just right.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Partnership with Amazon is a big deal. It makes sense with Tesla's sales structure, works well with their goal of selling everything online with simple clicks. This way they don't need to spend money on sales & marketing, don't need to worry about shipping. And Amazon isn't localized, they are world-wide.

Have you actually tried to use the Amazon Tesla store? Everything I clicked on was either sold out, or only available via third party sellers. It looks very half assed to me.

 

[JRP3]

AAPL retail head is leaving, how many "rats leaving the ship" articles will we be seeing?

 

[EVMeister]

Have you actually tried to use the Amazon Tesla store? Everything I clicked on was either sold out, or only available via third party sellers. It looks very half assed to me.

That's because the things are now out of stock. It was working as you'd expect before, but as usual it was supply and not demand that was Tesla's problem.

 

[M3Rider]

Yeah, "deferred sales" being one of the main drivers of the EV conversion is actually one of my pet peeves!

This is a wishful thinking so far.
Did not happen in 2018.

Overall U.S. vehicle sales totaled 17.3 million in 2018, a 0.4 percent increase from the 17.1 million sold in 2017.

There needs to be a reality check on statements like that, b/c market can remain "irrational" longer than...you know.

 

[tinm]

Tesla direct sales in New Mexico gains ground as "Tesla Bill" gets approved

According to Teslarati Tesla has a clear path to victory in New Mexico dealership fight.

Voting has been on strictly partisan lines with Democrats in favor and Republicans against. Democrats control both houses of the legislature plus the Governorship.

Sorry, but respectfully, I must say, baloney.

There is no such thing as a "clear path to victory" in the New Mexico fight. Why? Because the dealers (as middlemen are wont to do), and some legislators, stand firmly, stubbornly, deliberately, in the way. Some legislators have direct familial ties to dealers. Some legislators are or were dealers. Some legislators are married to lobbyists who are lobbying . . .for the dealers. No amount of reason or rational argument seems to get these folk to budge. Doesn't matter if every one of their straw-man arguments is bogus. Doesn't matter if Tesla has not harmed a single dealer in any of the many U.S. states where Tesla does business already. The reality here on the New Mexico ground is, nothing is easy, and this will be a fight right to the bitter end. The dealers have history, time, money, and much of the legislature on their side. We are doing everything we can to change that. But this is not easy.

It is also a misnomer that this is a party-lines fight. This is not a Dems-are-for-Tesla, Reps-are-against type of situation. There are Dems who hate Tesla with the burning fire of the sun here. I should know, since I almost had my face chewed off by one of these folks for having the nerve of walking up to them, introducing myself, and asking how they feel about the bill that would allow Tesla into the state. "DON'T TALK TO ME ABOUT THAT BILL!" was the vicious response as if I'd said something obscene. This was from a very powerful Dem senator. Another Dem, a state senator I spent a half-hour talking to privately in his office, told me to my face, "I am going to do everything in my power to block the bill" and that he does not believe in the Tesla mission and wants Tesla kept out of the state. Again, this was from a Dem.

The Teslarati author, Dacia J Ferris, is a freelancer based in a suburb 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia. I could be wrong, but I don't believe she has stepped foot in New Mexico to report on this situation., rather, her article is a distillation of other articles that have recently appeared on the web in the past week or so.

Me, I'm right here a few minutes down the road from the State Capitol, and am regularly meeting with legislators and Tesla representatives and Tesla owners face-to-face, walking the halls of the Capitol as if I were a lobbyist, talking to whoever will give me a moment, and spending hours upon hours sitting in seats in committee hearing rooms where the committee doesn't start for 3 hours after the starting time. It's a different perspective. This battle ain't over.

 

[EVNow]

I mean, let's not kid ourselves, it's not going to rise nearly 3% every day

What ?!

I sold all my losing March 15 calls. Will buy March 350 tomorrow (I know, taking the overnight risk). BTW, someone bought 5,500 March 350 calls today at 1:17 pm !

<NotAnAdvice>
And keeping some cash. I bought some ATM Feb 08 calls yesterday and sold today (a little too early). Still, it was a tidy 1.5x gain. Basically, every $8 increase in SP, doubles the price. So, if you catch a falling knife, like yesterday, you can make some money with low risk.

</NotAnAdvice>​

 

[bookfast]

I happened to be travelling through schiphol airport in amsterdam today. There was a tesla vehicle display, with velvet ropes and a model 3 under a blanket. There was no one to ask when it was to be revealed. I am not sure if they have advertised vehicles at airports before?

 

[Tim S]

That's because the things are now out of stock. It was working as you'd expect before, but as usual it was supply and not demand that was Tesla's problem.

Hi all, this is my first post. I am a TSLA shareholder since 2013 and a Model 3 owner since May 2018. I just wanted to confirm the Amazon Tesla store was working earlier. I bought a hat at 4:30 EST. It's now sold out. More revenue for Tesla

 

[Cherry Wine]

What ?!

I sold all my losing March 15 calls. Will buy March 350 tomorrow (I know, taking the overnight risk). BTW, someone bought 5,500 March 350 calls today at 1:17 pm !

Did the "someone" buy, or sell the calls? Obviously someone was buying in order to generate the volume, but knowing whether the "single entity" was the buyer or seller is vital for us to determine if that's a bullish or bearish trade.

 

[Hock1]

I've finally ventured into buying calls on TSLA. I previously had only been selling calls and puts on smaller $5 renewable energy stocks. I probably miss out on some of the upside but after a dip, I'll buy some March 290s, and sell after I make 8-10%. I may be wrong, but I feel like it's safer for me. I can't have too much risk for my EAP & Dual motor money.

How long do you typically hold onto them, out of curiosity?

Please, please do not get involved in options. Some on this board are probably tired of me saying this, some have probably never heard me say this: options are a loser's game. Put every dollar (that you can afford to lose, if your wrong) into TSLA stock and don't let go. I'm speaking from decades worth of personal and observed experience. I know it's unlikely that you or anyone else will heed my advice. I want to do whatever I can for well-meaning people to not lose when, having identified TSLA as the investment of this century, are blaming others on this board for losing a lot of money, like the "investor" who recently lost $820,000. Don't do it. This is "an advice".

 

[Singuy]

Sorry, but respectfully, I must say, baloney.

There is no such thing as a "clear path to victory" in the New Mexico fight. Why? Because the dealers (as middlemen are wont to do), and some legislators, stand firmly, stubbornly, deliberately, in the way. Some legislators have direct familial ties to dealers. Some legislators are or were dealers. Some legislators are married to lobbyists who are lobbying . . .for the dealers. No amount of reason or rational argument seems to get these folk to budge. Doesn't matter if every one of their straw-man arguments is bogus. Doesn't matter if Tesla has not harmed a single dealer in any of the many U.S. states where Tesla does business already. The reality here on the New Mexico ground is, nothing is easy, and this will be a fight right to the bitter end. The dealers have history, time, money, and much of the legislature on their side. We are doing everything we can to change that. But this is not easy.

It is also a misnomer that this is a party-lines fight. This is not a Dems-are-for-Tesla, Reps-are-against type of situation. There are Dems who hate Tesla with the burning fire of the sun here. I should know, since I almost had my face chewed off by one of these folks for having the nerve of walking up to them, introducing myself, and asking how they feel about the bill that would allow Tesla into the state. "DON'T TALK TO ME ABOUT THAT BILL!" was the vicious response as if I'd said something obscene. This was from a very powerful Dem senator. Another Dem, a state senator I spent a half-hour talking to privately in his office, told me to my face, "I am going to do everything in my power to block the bill" and that he does not believe in the Tesla mission and wants Tesla kept out of the state. Again, this was from a Dem.

The Teslarati author, Dacia J Ferris, is a freelancer based in a suburb 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia. I could be wrong, but I don't believe she has stepped foot in New Mexico to report on this situation., rather, her article is a distillation of other articles that have recently appeared on the web in the past week or so.

Me, I'm right here a few minutes down the road from the State Capitol, and am regularly meeting with legislators and Tesla representatives and Tesla owners face-to-face, walking the halls of the Capitol as if I were a lobbyist, talking to whoever will give me a moment, and spending hours upon hours sitting in seats in committee hearing rooms where the committee doesn't start for 3 hours after the starting time. It's a different perspective. This battle ain't over.

If China crushes the U.S in technological advancement in renewables, they deserve every last freaken ounce of that victory and I for one is rooting for them. POS greedy ass politicians.

 

[Singuy]

Please, please do not get involved in options. Some on this board are probably tired of me saying this, some have probably never heard me say this: options are a loser's game. Put every dollar (that you can afford to lose, if your wrong) into TSLA stock and don't let go. I'm speaking from decades worth of personal and observed experience. I know it's unlikely that you or anyone else will heed my advice. I want to do whatever I can for well-meaning people to not lose when, having identified TSLA as the investment of this century, are blaming others on this board for losing a lot of money, like the "investor" who recently lost $820,000. Don't do it. This is "an advice".

I second this. No matter how bullish I am on a stock, options is just another form of gambling. There's not enough research in the world that can predict a funding secured tweet or Elon trolling SEC after getting in trouble. This stock swings based on FUD because you have a CEO who admit on public TV saying he doesn't know what he is doing because what he is doing has never been done before. That statement just opens the flood gate for shorts to play around with TSLA and treat it like a money printing playground. So options for this stock is not investing at all.

 

[SPadival]

Yep poster is the one missing the boat. Bwahaha

My tweet on seeing Model S being unloaded first

”Let’s unload the Model S first” - Glovis Captain’s captain trolling the boat spotters and the entire continent of Europe